Thursday, June 19, 2008

Gold Cup at Ascot

Although races for out-and-out stayers are not the most fashionable these days, the one obvious exception is the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, still the most prestigious race of the Royal meeting, which will be run today over the extreme distance of 2 1/2 miles at 16.45 CET as the main feature of the third day (Ladies Day) of the meeting. The first four from last year all line up again and there will be a tremendous ovation if Aidan O´Brien´s Yeats wins this for the third year is succession, a feat only ever achieved once before. He clearly holds Geordieland, Le Miracle and Finalmente on that form, and all three have gone on to win good races since.

German hope Le Miracle has run badly on his two starts this season, but trainer Werner Baltromei reports him back to his best now and hopes are high that he can once again finish in the money. A new opponent, and a big danger to all is André Fabre´s Coastal Path (Stephane Pasquier), who has won all his 6 starts very easily and has been heavily backed to continue this sequence against the toughest opposition he has yet met. He is unproved beyond 2 miles, and although he has undeniably been visually very impressive (leaving a below-form Le Miracle well behind on his last two starts) we still expect the proven performer Yeats to come out on top and give his team their fourth Group One victory of the week.

Betting forecast:
1.Race: South Central - Cerito - Flashmans Papers
2.Race: Michita - Cape Amber - Dar Re Mi
3.Race: Yeats - Coastal Path - Geordieland
4.Race: Redford - Flawed Genius - Hurricane Hymnbook
5.Race: Dr Faustus - Kensington Oval - King Of Rome
6.Race: Allied Powers - Colony - Missioner