Away on holiday

This column is now taking a short holiday and expects to be back on Sunday May 3rd. Today (April 25) we have racing from Sandown (the final day of the U.K. jumps season and also the final rides of Champion Jockey AP McCoy) as the big meeting of the day, while you can look forward to the big Irish jumps meeting at Punchestown next week as well as the start of the Newmarket Guineas meeting.

3 Group Races at Sandown

lots of racing today, three meetings in the afternoon and four in the evening, but pride of place clearly goes to Sandown, which stages an excellent card with 3 group races. In the old days this used to be a mixed meeting, but now we have only flat racing on the Friday and only jumps racing on the Saturday, which marks the official end of the U.K. 2014-5 N.H. season. It will also mark the end of the most successful jumps career of all time - that of AP McCoy who finally hangs up his boots tomorrow after more than 4000 winners and as champion jockey for the 20th successive season.
The main feature today is the Group Two Mile at 15.30 CET, in which Here Comes When (Andrew Balding/ Jim Crowley) makes his reappearance; he ended last season by winning the Oettingen-Rennen at Baden-Baden and then the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket, with Breton Rock (David Simcock/ Martin Lane) a close third and now 4 lbs better off. Custom Cut (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) won 5 successive races last season before getting bogged down in the heavy ground in an Ascot Group One. Bow Creek (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick) also finished last season on a high by winning his last 2 races, but the one to beat is clearly Shifting Power (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who is best in at these weights and represents a stable famous for its milers - the Hannons have won this 7 times in the last 11 years. Shifting Power was 4th in the 200 Guineas last year and runner-up in the Irish version and also the Jean Prat. A repetition of those pieces of form would suffice here.
With the regrettable absense of French challenger Grey Lion, the Classic Trial over 10 furlongs at 16.00 is now down to 4 runners, and Commemorative (Charlie Hills/ Frankie Dettori) is clear top-rated here. He was beaten less than 3 lengths when third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and before that had won well over a mile at Newmarket; the extra distance is not expected to be a problem. It certainly won´t bother Cape Clear Island (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore), a 14-1 winner over this trip in the valuable Tattersalls sales race at Newmarket last week. He is probably not one of O´Brien´s main classic hopes, but his runners must never be underestimated. Master Apprentice (Balding/ David Probert) and Snoano (John Gosden/ Dane O´Neill) need to improve on their juvenile form to figure here. The same trainers have in our opinion much better chances in the Gordon Richards Stakes, also over 10 furlongs, at 15.00. Balding runs Tullius (Jimmy Fortune), a very smatrt miler but trying this trip for the first time, while Gosden has booked Dettori for Western Hymn, who won the classic trial here last year. Both of them however would probably prefer softer ground, and the specialist for today´s fast going is Postponed (Luca Cumani/ Adam Kirby), not seen since winning the Great Voltigeur but equally at home over this trip. Cannock Chase (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore) is a big danger; the lightly-raced colt won all his 3 races last season and could go right to the top.

please note: this column is now going on a short holiday and will be back on May 3rd

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Yeenaan - Mukhayyam - Spring Offensive
2. Race: Cannock Chase - Postponed - Western Hymn
3. Race: Bow Creek - Here Comes When - Shifting Power
4. Race: Cape Clear Island - Snoano - Master Apprentice
5. Race: Waady - Thahab - Profitable
6. Race: Moonlight Sonata - Leading Design - June
7. Race: Stravagante - Jack Hobbs - Dartmouth

6 more meetings today

once again we have 6 meetings today, but all at a very low level and some small fields as well. We have flat racing this afternoon at Beverley and this evening at Bath (very firm going) and Southwell (all-weather), while there is jumping this afternoon at Warwick and Perth while there is a mixed meeting in Ireland at Tipperary, with 4 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles.


The two top races at Warwick have only tiny fields and from the betting point of view, the handicap chase over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 15.10 CET is more interesting. Allthekingshorses (Philip Hobbs/ James Best) was expected to run well in a similar race at Exeter last week but spoilt his chances by poor jumping; with a clear round he must go close today, but we just prefer High Ron (Caroline Bailey/ Andrew Thornton), who should find conditions ideal.

The best race at Beverley is the 3yo handicap over 7 1/2 furlongs at 16.00 with another small field. This should mainly concern the two top-weights Pleiades (Sir Michael Stoute/ Graham Gibbons) and Bow and Arrow (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick). The former has not been seen since winning over this CD last September and on pedigree will probably need longer distances this year, so we go for the Godolphin runner, who has good form on the all-weather to his credit.

Philip Hobbs sends his main jockey Richard Johnson to Scotland for the second day of Perth´s meeting and the combination can land the main event, a handicap chase at 17.20 over 2 1/2 miles with another very small field, with Filbert. Johnson also teams up three times with Irish trainer Gordon Elliott, who has a 30% strike rate here - with Skilled at 15.20, Tom´s Article an hour later, and Eshtiaal at 18.25 and all must be seriously considered.

Of the various German-breds running today, the one we like best is Dandy (Andrew Balding/ Rob Hornby) in the 19.25 race at Bath. He is unreliable, but shows his best form on firm ground and in fact is now lower in the weights than winning over this CD last July with this claimer on board.

advance notice: please note that this column will be on holiday next week (from April 25 to May 2 inclusive).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Arranmore Girl - Ayresome Angel - Lady Mcguffy
2. Race: Thowar - Beach Action - Mustaqbal
3. Race: Pleiades - Bow And Arrow - Enlace
4. Race: Saved By The Bell - Leaderene - Full Day
5. Race: Next Stop - Atlantic Affair - Gleese The Devil
6. Race: Stay Strong - All My Love - Thankstomonty
7. Race: Thunder In Myheart - Goring - Liberty Sky