Friday, October 31, 2014

Listed and graded races today

Plenty of racing today, with listed races on the flat at Newmarket this afternoon and this evening on the all-weather at Dundalk - both fillies races - while there are graded races over jumps at Wetherby and Down Royal, both gearing up for their top cards of the year tomorrow.

The Newmarket race at 15.00 CET is actually pretty feeble, and if Terror (David Simcock/ Jim Crowley) can repeat the form she showed when 4th here in the Cheveley Park, then she should win this easily. More interesting each-way bets at long odds here could be Perfect Summer (Lady Cecil/ Cam Hardie) at 16.10, owned by our Hoppegarten friend GS, and Our Folly (Stuart Kittow/ Pat Cosgrave) at 16.45.

The Dundalk race at 20.10 is much more competitive and has a full field of 14 runners, with all the top Irish stables represented. Mike Halford holds a strong hand here with Slipper Orchid (CP Hogan) and Sea Coast (Shane Foley) and we have a slight preference for the former in a very open event.

The best race over jumps in the U.K. is the listed handicap chase over 2 1/2 miles at Wetherby at 15.15. Silver rqoque (Fergus O´Brien/ Conor Shoemark) is favourite here, but we prefer Trustan Times (Tim Easterby/ Wilson Renwick) and especially Cedre Bleu (Dougie Costello), who was previously with Paul Nicholls but now reappears after a break for Charlie Mann. The 3yo hurdle race at 15.50 is also a listed event, but this is a poor field and Brian Ellison´s two runners Come On Sunshine (Renwick) and Full Day (Danny Cook) can take the first two places.
The Grade 2 hurdle race at 15.05 at Down Royal is arguably the race of the day and here we expect Arctic Fire (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) to come out on top.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

listed races at Lingfield

the best meeting today is the all-weather fixture at Lingfield, featuring two listed races for fillies. The first, at 15.50 CET, is over a mile and frankly looks a bit substandard. The well-bred Water Hole (John Gosden/ Robert Havlin) won over this CD last December and although she was well beaten on her recent starts, she is still the highest-rated here. The dangers could be Fruit Pastille (Hughie Morrison/ Jimmy Fortune), who has won her last 3 races, and the two Godolphin runners Tearless (Charlie Appleby/ Adam Kirby) and Wahgah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Paul Hanagan). There are also two Godolphin fillies in the 1 mile 5 furlongs race half an hour later; Speckled (Appleby/ Kirby) won this last year (with Ed Walker´s Livia´s Dream runner-up ), but has only run once since. so Saeed´s runner Hidden Gold (Freddie Tylicki) can be preferred. She is up in grade here but has a fantastic pedigree (Urban Sea is the second dam!) and looks an improver. The 7 furlongs handicap which follows is also a tough race, but if Intransigent (Andrew Balding/ Thomas Brown) can reproduce his winning form at Ascot on this different surface, he must have a solid chance under top-weight for a stable that is still banging in the winners.
The most interesting race at the 3 jumps meetings today is the Durham National over 3 miles 6 furlongs at 16.00. This comes very early in the season, having previously been run in the spring. Our fancy here is Royale Knight (Dr. Newland/ Daryl Jacob), one of the few who can be guaranteed to stay the trip. He had a recent warm-up over hiurdles and looks ripe for this. Our other fancy here is CD specialist Sendiym at 15.00; 4 of his 5 career victories have been at this track, including two recently and although he is now meeting better opposition, we think that he can score again.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fine View - Regal Ways - Colorada
2. Race: Alfajer - Krafty One - Faery Song
3. Race: Hills And Dales - Swot - Horseshoe Bay
4. Race: Rome - Silver Dixie - Starfield
5. Race: Water Hole - Wahgah - Tearless
6. Race: Tamasha - Speckled - Cascading
7. Race: Prince`s Trust - Athletic - Ifwecan
8. Race: Chevise - Bookmaker - Bertie Blu Boy

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

5 poor meetings today

plenty of runners today but mainly of very poor quality. There is flat racing this afternoon at Nottingham and in the evening at Kempton, while they go over jumps at Taunton and Worcester and also Punchestown in Ireland.
It is interesting that the two divisions of the 5 furlongs sprint handicap that open the card at Nottingham, both feature previous winners of the race -Steel Rain (Mrs Evans/ Matthew Cosham) at 14.30 CET and Lupo d´Oro (Jim Best/ Steve Drowne) half an hour later. Both are now on a long losing run, but are extremely well handicapped as a result and it is possible that a return to the scene of old victories may enable them to recover past ability. The 2yo maiden here at 16.00 has some potentially useful performers engaged, including the well-bred Storm the Stars (William Haggas/ Joe Fanning), beaten in a photo-finish in a hot maiden at Newmarket and that form could be good enough here. Andrew Balding continues in tremendous form and can take the 1 3/4 mile handicap at 17.00 with the lightly-raced Nabatean (David Probert). who has twice run well in better company and looks a very promising young stayer.
Balding occasionally has runners over hurdles and could be on the mark at Taunton with German-bred Dandy (Tom O´Brien) at 15.40; he will need to be quite useful to win on his debut against two previous winnmers. but he won 5 races on the flat. Another German-bred who can score over jumps is Lysino (Dr. Newland/ Noel Fehily); he has a 7 lbs penalty for winning last week., but jumped so well that he can probably win again.

Betting forecast Nottingham:
1. Race: Haajes - Boxing Shadows - Ambitious Icarus
2. Race: Fredricka - Indian Tinker - Rylee Mooch
3. Race: Arthur`s Way - Speedfit Rules - Chilworth Bells
4. Race: Storm The Stars - Golden Horn - Champagne Bob
5. Race: Dubai Star - Lightning Spear - Bahamian C
6. Race: Nabatean - Civil War - Dara Tango
7. Race: Time Square - Monopoli - Nellies Quest