Friday, May 31, 2013

Rest of Epsom

The card also includes two Group Threes, a listed race and three good handicaps. Frankie Dettori, having finally received jhis license back, returns to action today and rides in the first two races - Beatrice Aurore (Ed Dunlop) in the opening Princess Elizabeth Stakes for fillies at 14.35 CET ,and Fattotsa for Marco Botti at 15.10. He is our favourite jockey and has been riding work regularly, but nothing equals actually riding in races and he may not be fully fit today. In any case we prefer Thistle Bird (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) in the former race and course specialist Resurge (Wilf Kittow/ Neil Callan) in the latter.

The Diomed Stakes over the extended mile at 15.45 looks tricky, even with only 7 runners. We shall take gabrial (Richard Fahey/ Jamie Spencer), now fitted with a visor, and Gregorian (John Gosden/ William Buick) against the field. Fahey has no runners in the two classics, but sends a strong team down from Yorkshire and has 2 runners in the mile handicap at 16.20: he claims that Hi There (Paul Hanagan) is his main hope, but we also expect Brae Hill (Spencer) to run well, while Benzanno (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), another runner with a good course record, should also get involved. Our best bet is Boomshackerlacker (George Baker/ Pat Cosgrave) in the listed race for 3yo´s over 7 furlongs at 17.45; he was badly hampered when a respectable fifth in the German 2,000 Guineas a fortnight ago, and this distance is probably even better for him.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Thistle Bird - Beatrice Aurore - Sentaril
2. Race: Resurge - Pilgrims Rest - Area Fifty One
3. Race: Gregorian - Producer - Gabrial
4. Race: Hefner - Hi There - Maverik
5. Race: Secret Gesture - Moth - Liber Nauticus
6. Race: Hasopop - Here Comes When - Well Acquainted
7. Race: Lancelot Du Lac - You Da One - Love Magic

The Oaks at Epsom today

The Derby meeting at Epsom starts today with an excellent card, headed by The Oaks at 17.00 CET. The classic race for fillies - actually older then the Derby itself- is over 1 1/2 miles and has 11 runners today, with Secret Gesture (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) the clear favourite. She was a most impressive winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial and although that is no longer a significant race in itself, that is probably the best form in the race.

Qatar Racing, who also have the German-trained Chopin in tomorrow´s Derby, have bought a half share in the Galileo filly and she is our selection, although we hope to get a better price than the current 9/4. Beckett is one of 3 trainers with two runners, and his other filly Talent (Richard Hughes) also has a good chance of being placed, as she was staying on strongly when winning over 10 furlongs at Newmarket last time. Aidan O´Brien - of course- has two runners, with son Joseph on Moth, third in the 1,000 Guineas and almost certainly better at today´s trip. Seamus Heffernan rides Say, who needs to improve, although also a daughter of Galileo, like Moth and Secret Gesture.

Michhel Bell also has two runners, although his hopes Madame Deafrge (Tom Queally) and The Lark (Jamie Spencer) are both outsiders, However quite a few judges expect The Lark to be a good each-way bet. A more likely Newmarket challenger is Liber Nauticus (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who won the Musidora, usually a good guide; it is rather worrying that Stoute, for two decades the top trainer in the U.K., has not won a Group One race since Workforce´s Arc in 2010. To be hoest, we don´t fancy his filly, as we are not sure that she will act on the track.
There have been plenty of upsets in the history of this race, and we don ´t like tipping favourites, but in this case we think that Secret Gesture is the most reliable candidate and hope that she wins.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Thistle Bird - Beatrice Aurore - Sentaril
2. Race: Resurge - Pilgrims Rest - Area Fifty One
3. Race: Gregorian - Producer - Gabrial
4. Race: Hefner - Hi There - Maverik
5. Race: Secret Gesture - Moth - Liber Nauticus
6. Race: Hasopop - Here Comes When - Well Acquainted
7. Race: Lancelot Du Lac - You Da One - Love Magic

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Good card at Sandown this evening

By far the best racing at today´s 6 meetings in the U.K. and Ireland is to be seen this evening at Sandown Park, where we have probably the best evening card of the entire season, featuring two Group races and two listed events. The Henry II Stakes over 2 miles at 20.15 CET is the top race and is an important trial for the Gold Cup; indeed Colour Vision (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) won the Royal Ascot showpiece last year. he is one of 3 Godolphin runners, the others being Cavalryman (Mikael Barzalona), who however would not want any more rain, and Ley Hunter (Kieren Fallon). Coloiur Vision is just about top-rated here, but he has not run since putting up a very poor effort at Ascot in October, before which he was third in the Prix du Cadran, behind runner-up High Jinx (James Fanshawe/ Graham Lee), who finished last season with 4 second places, including to Times Up (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) in the Doncaster Cup, when the latter was still trained by Ed´s father John. L ightly-raced 4yo Model Pupil (Charlie Hills/ Richard Hughes) is trying this distance for the first time, but it is hoped that he will also make up into a decent Cup performer.

French raider Gloomy Sunday (Christophe Ferland/ Olivier Peslier), owned by the Boss, is another 4yo but, with all due respect, his form does not look good enough. This is a tricky race and should be watched for Golf Cup clues; Coilour Vision seems the most likely winner, but we would hold our fire. The Brigadier Gerard Stakes over 10 furlongs at 20.50 has only 5 runners, and probably lies between Danadana (Luca Cumani/ Fallon) and Main Sequence (Dabvid Lanigan/ Ted Durcan). The latter started by winning his first 4 races and was then runner-up to Camelot in the Derby, but has failed to shine since. he is still top-rated and receives 3 lbs from Danadana, but we still prefer ther latter, who was a very easy winner in this grade at Chester 3 weeks ago.

There are also small fields in tjhe listed races, for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 19.40, which could go to Steventon Star (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes- the team that has won this race 4 times in the last 6 seasons), and for 3yo´s over a mlle at 21.20, where any of the 5 runners could win. All of them could well make up into Group race performers by the end of the season, and our preference is for the unbeaten Queensberry Rules (William Haggas/ Fallon), and Mango Diva (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore), the only filly in the field. Possibly she can take advantage of her 5 lbs sex allowance, but once again, this is a race to watch for future reference than to bet heavily on today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tight Lipped - Rezwaan - Tafawuk
2. Race: Steventon Star - Rizeena - Eastern Impact
3. Race: Colour Vision - High Jinx - Cavalryman
4. Race: Danadana - Main Sequence - Mukhadram
5. Race: Ebn Arab - Montiridge - Queensberry Rules
6. Race: Spa`S Dancer - Kakatosi - Forgive