Friday, August 27, 2010

Newmarket, Ffos Las and Thirsk this afternoon

The first four races at Newmarket this afternoon are for 2yo´s and there are quite likely to be some well-bred newcomers from top stables in the winners enclosure. From the betting point of view however the 1 3/3 miles handicap at 17.05 looks more interesting and Jeremy Noseda´ s very consistent Plymouth Rock (William Buick) is our choice here. Noseda can follow up with Call to Reason (Richard Hughes) in the mile maiden half an hour later, who probably has only Significant Move (Roger Charlton/ Steve Drowne) to fear.

The interesting runner at Thirsk is ex-German Andorn (Peter Kirby/ Paul Pickard), who has really found his form and has won 4 of his last 5 races, including at Catterick on Wednesday over todays distance of 2 miles. He runs in the handicap at 15.10, where Lady Hestia (Marcus Tregoning/ Frankie Dettori) looks the main danger. Frankie´s main reason for being here is to partner Saeed bin Suroor´s well-bred debutant Ru´oud in the 2yo maiden half an hour later.

There is a mixed meeting at Ffos Las, with the first 4 races on the flat and the last 4 over jumps. The most valuable event is a 2 mile handicap chase at 17.50 with some quite smart performers. Yellow Flag (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) was in excellent form in 2008 before an injury caused a break of 22 months in his career, but is back to top form and has in fact finished first or second in his last 7 starts. The opposition, headed by recent winner Grand Lahou (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) is now much stronger, but he can keep up this proud record.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Cartmel, Bellewstown and Tipperary this evening

Even after the abandonment of Goodwood, there is still racing this evening both in the U.K. at Cartmel and in Ireland at Bellewstown and Tipperary. Th last-named course stages the best race of the day a listed race for fillies over 7 furlongs at 18.20 CET. These events always attract big fields, in this case 14 runners, but half of them have no chance at all, at least in theory. Gile na Greine (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), third in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket and runner-up in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, stands out on ratings and should win this easily. If Lolly for Dolly (Tommy Stack( Wayne Lordan) could recover her early season form, she might be a danger, while the improving Smart Striking (John Oxx/ Fran Berry) is next best.

The other two meetings are both over jumps, woth Bellewstown staging an all-hurdles card. German-bred Auenshütze has been runner-up in his last 4 races but might get off the mark in the 2 miles 1 furlong race at 17.25. The danger is clearly Pires, one of 3 mounts at the fixture for Ruby Walsh and trainer Tony Martin. Their best chance is probably Dream Champion in the 3 mile handicap at 19.35. He has a 4 lbs penalty for winning over 2 1/2 miles on
Sunday but scored in good style and can go in again.

There are some very small fields at the pretty Cartmel track, where no race has more than 7 runners. The main event is a handicap chase over 3 3/4 miles at 18.55. With the stable now in good form , we hope that Petite Margot (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) can defy top weight here.

Ffos Las, Ayr and Lingfield this afternoon

Today´ s racing at Ffos Las is on the flat and the main event is the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 16.20. 8 runners here and quite an open race, although Desert Poppy (Walter Swinburn/ Shane Kelly) will probably start as a warm favourite. The Oasis Dream filly has finished first or second on 7 of her 8 career starts and was especially impressive last time at Newbury. However she is stepping up in grade here. Top-weight Lowdown (Mark Johnston/ Greg Fairley), who has been running in better company, Cansili Star (Michael Jarvis/ Philip Robinson) and the lightly-weighted Duster (Hughie Morrison/ Nicky Mackay ) - coming off a break but the stable is in good form - all look dangerous.

The most interesting race at Ayr is a 9 furlongs handicap for older horses at 16.40, another very open affair with 11 runners. Jim Goldie always does well here and saddles 2 runners. Grand Diamond (Neil Farley), who ran here yesterday, finishing 4th under another apprentice, and Jewelled Dagger (Joe Fanning), who is our selection. However top-weight Docofthebay (Jeremy Glover/ Peter Mcdonald) could be a big threat in this company.
At Lingfield the first 3 races are on the all-weather and the last 3 on turf. Dubai Media (Ed Dunlop/ Kieren Fallon) is the most interesting runner here. She was a very easy winner of a CD maiden last time and now shoulders top weight in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.30. She has a big weight for a 3yo filly against older horses, but is the only runner here with a progressive profile.