a typical winter Monday with two very low level cards over jumps at Ffos Las and Plumpton, and an even worse card on the all-weather at Wolverhampton. The best card is at the Welsh meeting and Rebecca Curtis and AP McCoy have an excellent striuke ragte when they Team up here. They have 3 chances today, with Globalisation at 13.55 CET, Red Devil Lads at 15.05 and Lookslikerainted at 15.40 and it would be no huge surprise were all 3 to win. From the German point of view, the first-named race is the most interesting of the day as the field for this novice hurdle inciudes two ex-German runners: Floresco (R Woollacott/ Daryl Jacob) and Global Thrill (Bernard Lewellyn/ Robert Williams). Both finished third on their hurdling debut in the U.K. and should be certainly capable of picking up a race at this level, although we are not sure that they can beat the Curtis/ McCoy hotpot. Global Thrill was easily the better of the pair in Germany, winning a group race. Also in the field is debutant Clyne (Paul Moloney), one of 3 runners for local trainer Evan Williams; he also has a German background, being out of a Nebos mare from the fmily of Lando, and he is in fact a half-brother to smart hurdler Zamdy Man.
The going is heavy at Plumpton and there are some very small fields, with only 4 runners in the main event, a novice chase at 13.40. All 45 were winning hurdlers and could well go on to better things over fences as well. Our choice is Chris Pea Green (Gary and Josh Moore), who after running up 3 times to decent opponents, finally won over this CD in as canter a fortnight ago. That was a very weak race, but we hope that he can repeat that performance against much stronger opposition.
The only point of interest in the all-weather card at Wolverhampton is the reappearance after eleven months of 11yo La Estrella (Don Cantillon/ Graham Lee). The old boy is close to the all-time all-weather record of 26 wins and, if anywhere near his usual form, should win today, but the trainer warns that he is getting a bit fragile.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Cape Caster - Mercoeur - Zephyr
2. Race: Globalisation - Clyne - Global Thrill
3. Race: The Omen - Supreme Bob - Devil`s Dyke
4. Race: Red Devil Lads - Prima Porta - Hansupfordetroit
5. Race: Lookslikerainted - Goodtoknow - Knockanrawley
6. Race: Rock On Rocky - Oscar Sunset - Arrayan
7. Race: Ezetiger - Oskar`s Eva - The Gipper
Monday, December 15, 2014
3 poor meetings today
Sunday, December 14, 2014
huge fields at Navan
As is so often the case on a Sunday, the best races today are run at Navan in Ireland, with the two U.K.meetings at Carlisle and Southwell of rather less interest. However with only just over a week to go before the big Boxing Day cards, top quality sport today is mainly missing.
The best race of the day is the Grade Two novice hurdle at Navan at 13.55 CET, but while there are some huge fields here, in this race only 5 line up, with Shaneshill (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) likely to start at Odds-on. Mullins has won this race for the last 3 years and this one, a top bumper horse and runner up in the Cheltenham bumper, looks set to continue the sequence. He won his only hurdle race easily enough, although his hurdling technique can still be improved, but it seems his only serious opponent now is No More Heroes (Gordon Elliott/ Barry Geraghty), also a good bumper winner (but at a lower level) and easy winner of his only hurdle race.. The other 3 runners are all useful but it will be surprising ifthey can beat this pair. Our other fancies here areGrecian Tiger (Dermot Weld/ Davy Russell) in the opening maiden hurdle with 29 runners; he makes his debut over sticks today, but has some decent form on the flat and the only danger is expected to be Fort Smith (Elliott/ Geraghty), who has been running in good company. And Rubi Light (Robbie Hennessy/ Andrew Lynch) who has top weight in the handicap chase at 15.35; he has not won for nearly 3 years but has mainly been racing graded races and has dropped to a very low mark, relatively speaking, and it is a long time since he ran in such a low grade race as this.
The best horse by far running in the U.K. today is Grand National winner Pineau De Re (Dr.Newland/ Christopher Ward), who has to concede lots of weight in the handicap hurdle at 15.25 at Carlisle. We are a bit worried about the heavy going, but he is different class to these opponents and the trainer has always made it clear that he will be campaigned over hurdles before returning to Aintree to defend his title in early April. He is a decent hurdler and was runner-up here last year - he can go one better now.
Navan - betting forecast:
1. Race: Fort Smith - Grecian Tiger - Domesday Book
2. Race: Black Spot On - Shabra`s Bertolini - Lethal Weapon
3. Race: No More Heroes - Couleur France - Shantou Flyer
4. Race: Dara Tango - Lite Duties - Roll It Out
5. Race: Jarry D`honneur - Lots Of Memories - Champagne James
6. Race: Fever Pitch - Abbey Lane - Arzembouy Premier
7. Race: Ravished - The Doorman - Draycott Place
8. Race: Bordini - Attribution - Rock On The Moor
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Cheltenham´s International Meeting: second day
Cheltenham´s International Meeting goes into its second day today with some very competitive racing and we shall no doubt be seeing many of today´s runners back here at the Festival in March. However the big races then will mainly be run at level weights, while today the various weight concessions could play a big role.
The main event is the International Hurdle at 16.10 CET where The New One Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) will probably start at ods-on; he has a good record here and was a very unlucky third in the Champion Hurdle, clearly the best form in the race. he won this last year and has won his last 3 races. However he has to concede 8 lbs to Vaniteux (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) which will certainly not be that easy, while we also like Zamdy Man (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), who meets him on better terms this time after running second to The New One at Haydock. Zamdy Man, out of a Nebos mare closely related to Lando, is a horse we like and he could be a decent each-way bet at the likly double figure odds.
The big betting race is the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, a handicap chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.00,which looks wide open. Caid du Berlais (Paul Nicholls/ Sam T-D). He has only gone up 5 lbs for that win and looks certain to be involved again. Ericht (Henderson/ Geraghty) was well behind that day and Easter Meteor (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) pulled up, bjut we expect them both to run much better this time. Attaglance (Malcolm Jefferson/ Brian Hughes) and Barrakilla (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) are others to consider, but almost any of the 12 runners could win here.
The 3 mile novice hurdle at 15.35 is another race in which the horse with the best form- Blaklion (Nigel T-D/ Jamie Moore) has to concede weight, and it could be that Port Melon ( Nicholls/ Sam T-D) could prove superior in receipt of 7 lbs. However both are moving up in trip, while Binge Drinker (Rebecca Curtis/ McCoy) and Parish Business (Emma Lavelle/ Coleman) are both proven at the distance, so it is not clear cut.
Best bet of the day could be Hargam (Henderson/ McCoy) in the opening 3yo hurdle at 13.15; he made a most encouraging debut when runner-up here at the November meeting in what was possibly the best juvenile hurdle of the season so far. It has been a frosty night in many places and Doncaster has called for a third inspection before racing gets the green light. If so, there will be very small fields, and here also there is a good race for 3yo hurdlers, which could also go to the Henderson stable via Peace and Co (Daryl Jacob).
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hargam - Stars Over The Sea - Karezak
2. Race: Champagne West - Un Ace - Little Jon
3. Race: Solar Impulse - Bold Henry - Sew On Target
4. Race: Caid Du Berlais - Barrakilla - No Buts
5. Race: Blaklion - Port Melon - Parish Business
6. Race: Vaniteux - Zamdy Man - Bertimont
7. Race: Volnay De Thaix - Rock On Ruby - Lac Fontana