Listed race this evening

A better-than-average all-weather card this evening at Kempton with a listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 20.00 CET the main event. Godolphin have won this race 4 times in the last 5 years and we expect them to score again with the lightly-raced and beautifully-bred Urban Dance (Charlie Appleby/ Silvestre de Sousa). The obvious danger is Gatewood (John Gosden/ William Buick), also very well-bred., who was a top handicapper last year and has decent group race form - without winning- in 2013. He is top-rated but has to give weight away all round and we prefer the younger horse, but would be very surprised if any other runner gets involved. Andrea Atzeni rides the outsider Aussie Reigns for Will Knight here, who probably has no chance, but the jockey can land a double on the two top handicaps on the card with Deserted for Luca Cumani at 18.30 and Horsted Keynes for Roger Varian at 20.30.

There is also flat racing this afternoon at Nottingham, where we are interested in how Norab (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) runs in the 2yo maiden at 14.30; he is a half-brother to German Group One winner Night Magic. Mountain Fighter (Saeed bin Suroor/ Chris Catlin), who is by Dubawi out of a German mare, is also interesting in the second division of this race half an hour later.

We are hoping for a German winner over jumps today - Christian von der Recke runs his useful flat horse Cafe au Lait in the 3yo hurdle at Warwick at 14.50. He is making his hurdling debut here, but that should be no problem with this trainer, who was hoping to get Tony McCoy to partner his runner. However McCoy is at Chepstow (for just one ride!) but Tom Scudamore is certainly an adequate substitute.

Kempton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Maria Bella - Button Down - Talmada
2. Race: Billowing - Natural Choice - Sibling Honour
3. Race: Stevie Thunder - Deserted - Burnham
4. Race: Pretend - Beyond Smart - Wealth
5. Race: Mr Burbidge - Dumbfounded - Grandiloquent
6. Race: Gatewood - Pether`s Moon - Urban Dance
7. Race: Horsted Keynes - Apostle - Chookie Royale
8. Race: Platinum Proof - Nepalese Pearl - Atalanta Bay

Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter

The Haldon Gold Cup, a handicap chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at Exeter at 5.50 CET, is easily the best race of the day and in fact the best race of the year at this track. Cue Card (Colin and Joe Tizzard) was hot favourite to win this last year and duly obliged by 26 lengths; he has a good chance of following up despite a 15 lbs rise in the weights.as he has since won the Ryanair Chase and been a good runner-up to Sprinter Sacre at Aintree last time.

However he has to concede 15 lbs and more to some decent chasers, so it is no walkover. William´s Wishes (Evanm Williams/ Paul Moloney) is an obvious danger, being unbeaten in 5 chases, but he has never races against opponents of this calibre, and we prefer Somersby (Mick Channon/ Dominic Elsworth), a big threat on his old form, and Kumbeshwar (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), who could be well handicapped. Tony McCoy does not have ride in this race, but he has 3 mounts on the card and now needs only 2 more winners to reach 4,000. We expect him to win the opener on Jonjo O´Neill´s Flemenson at 14.50, so there will be a huge amount on interest in his other two mounts - Keen Eye at 15.20 and Well Hello There at 16.50, although their chances are less obvious. In the former race we might risk a tiny each-way bet on Attimo (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily), making his hurdling debut:; he is a half-brother to the top German stayer Altano. Two more German-breds riunning here are Dark Lover (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) and Lord of House (Mann/ Fehily) who clash in the novice chase at 16.20 and could well have the finish to themselves.

With Redcar abandoned, the only flat racing today is on the all-weather at Southwell this afternoon and Kempton this evening. The best betting race at the former track is the 7 furlongs handicap at 14.40. In thgeory, top-seight PIceno (Scott Dixon/ Tim Clark) should win this, as he probably beat better opposition when making all under this apprentice at Newmarket last Saturday, but different rules apply on the a.w. and we prefer bottom-weight Speronella (Hughie Morrison/ John Fahy) and the trainer can follow up with Cosimo de Medici (George Baker) in the 2 mile handicap at 17.10. At Kempton, consistent Secret Beau (David Evans/ Tom Queally) can finally get his head in front in the 7 furlongs handicap at 20.00. He has been runner-up on all his 4 starts at this track, and althogh he keeps creeping up the weights wihout the winning, it could be his turn this evening.

Grands Crus at Kempton today

Monday is usually a very poor day but today Kempton stages quite a nice N.H. card and the highlight of the day is the return of the high class Grands Crus (David Poipe/ Tom Scudamore) to actipon. He runs in the handicap hurdle over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.40 CET and has too give 16 lbs or more to his 5 opponents. They are no pushovers either: the Crafty Butcher (Michael Hourigan/ Barry Geraghty) comes over to Ireland having won his last 2 races in good style, while Seventh Sign (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) was a smart juvenile last season and God´s Own (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) was badly hampered last time and would probably have won. However none of them can match Grands Crus´ achievements, as he twice gave the great Big Bucks a race and was third over fences in the King George here last year. Presumably he will be back chasing before long, but we think that he can defy his big weight and win today. Nicky Henderson has no runners in that race, but he is the leading trainer at Kempton and can score today with Captain Cutter (Tony McCoy - win no. 3995?) at 14.35 and Hadrian´s Approach (Barry Geraghty) at 16.10. This is another small field and the distance may be on the short side, but we expect him to outclass these opponents.
The other two U.K. meetings, over jumps at Plumpton and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton, are very low grade and are probably best left alone, especially as the going will be very testing at Plumpton which will make winners even harder to find.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Volnay De Thaix - Seedling - Devon Drum
2. Race: Reverb - Mr Grey - Ifits A Fiddle
3. Race: Midnight Oscar - Present View - Super Villan
4. Race: Grands Crus - Seventh Sign - The Crafty Butcher
5. Race: Hadrian`s Approach - Theatre Guide - Bury Parade
6. Race: Foundation Man - Upton Mead - Synthe Davis
7. Race: Uriah Heep - Sash Of Honour - Bollin Judith