Thursday, November 05, 2009

Haydock (N.H.), Towcester (N.H.) and Lingfield (a.w.)

Haydock´s N.H. fixture today goes ahead after an early morning inspection, but the ground will be very testing and there must be the possibility of non-runners, leaving the fields even smaller. The 3 mile handicap chase at 14.55 CET will be tricky, but we fancy two horses that both flopped last time - Sue Smith´s Daldini (Tjade Collier) and Jonjo O´Neill´s Fresh Air and Fun (Tony McCoy). The handicap hurdle at 16.05 can go to top-weight, Philip Hobbs´ Hectors Choice, who will be ridden by promising claimer Giles Hawkins. There are two German-breds wth chances in the novice hurdle at 16.40, Alpha Way (Donald McCain/ Jasom Maguire) and Le Platino (Brian Storey/ Brian Hughes), but the one to beat is probably Sonny Mullen (Kim Bailey/ Tom Siddall), an easy bumper winner on his only start so far. At Towcester, the much-improved Wolf Moon (Martin Keighley/ Warren Marston) is moving up in grade but can still complete a hat-trick in the handicap hurdle at 15.40, while Alfatrax (Neil Mulholland/ Robert Thornton) can make up for a narrow defeat here last time by winning the novice handicap chase at 16.15. The Godolphin stable´s winning run continues (3 more yesterday) and they can take the 7 furlongs race for 2yo novices at 14.45 at Lingfield with Sahara Kingdom (Ted Durcan), an easy winner this CD on his only start. Benozzo Gozzoli (Hughie Morrison/ Nicky Mackay) won in a canter at Nottingham last time, and if he adapts to the surface, should follow up in the 2 mile handicap here at 17.00.

Ireland today

There is flat racing today in Ireland - the abandoned final meeting from last Saturday at Leopardstown- and N.H. racing at Thurles, both with listed races. Main event at Thurles is the Thurles Chase over 2 3/4 miles at 15.25 CET, in which the smart In Compliance, now trained by Dessie Hughes and ridden by Paddy Flood, makes his comeback after almost 2 years off the track. If anywhere near his best, he should win this, but top-weight Chelsea Harbour (Tom and Emmett Mullins), a consistent performer at this level, is an obvious danger. The beginners chase over 2 miles at 16.00 here is also interesting: Essex (Mike O´Brien/ Andrew Lynch), Whatuthink (Oliver McKiernan/ Barry Geraghty) and Zaarito (Colm Murphy/ Matt O´Connor) are all expected to make the grade over fences, but our selection is Jessica Harrington´s Give it Time (Adrian Leigh), who fell at the last last time out when going like a winner.At Leopardstown, the 7 furlongs race at 14.40 should go to the Aga Khan´s Rayeni (John Oxx/ Mick Kinane), the clear form choice based on his second place in the Irish 2000 and recent listed win. The 2yo race over 9 furlongs at 15.15 looks more tricky. Jim Bolger´s Marfach (Kevin Manning) was only beaten a short head in the Goffs Million, but Aidan O´Brien´s two runners Mikhail Glinka (Seamus Heffenan) and Banyan Tree (Colm O´Donoghue) could be troublesome. The November Hndicap over 2 miles at 15.50 is the big betting race here, and several of the 21 runners have been running over jumps; the two promising claimers GF and TC Carroll are on Willie Mullins´ Dani California and Noel Meade´s Donnas Palm respectively and we expect these two to be involved in the finish.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

German runners in France today

Last week was very successful for German-trained runners in France, this week so far much less so. However today´s Saint-Cloud card offers several interesting possibilities. The main event is the listed mile race for 3yo fillies at 13.50, in which Andreas Löwe´s Fabiana (Terry Hellier) has been declared. She has run well in several good races and must have a decent chance. Löwe and Hellier also team up with Magazin in the 1400 metres race at 15.55, in which Fareion (Sascha Sczmrek/ Dominique Boeuf) and Balios (Friedel Willenbrock/ Johan Victoire) are also entered. There are also 3 German runners in the claiming race for amateur riders at 16.25: Godfreyson (Andreas Trybuhl/ Patrick Pailhes), Quadraga (Hans Blume/ Jeremie Laurent-Joye) and Sina (Waldemar Hickst/ Arthur Hoyeau), while Queen Petra (Horst Steinmetz/ Maxime Guyon) runs in the final 2400 metres handicap for 3yo´s at 16.55. However in our view the race which is the most likely to end in a German victory is the condit ions race over a mile for 4yo+ fillies and mares at 14.20, in which Masquenada (Werner Baltromei/ Boeuf) and Kanzlerin (Steinmetz/ Gaetan Masure) are engaged.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ville D`Avray - Jeunopse - Teshali
2. Race: Calm - Fabiana - Surpressa
3. Race: Halong Bay - Rockette - Chasing Stars
4. Race: Agnes Champ - Vera`s Moscou - Djemilla
5. Race: Kimcum - Hyawatha - Zillione Beauty
6. Race: Staraco - Without Precedent - Fareion
7. Race: Kalishnoo - Sina - Quadraga
8. Race: Nota Bene - Airwoman - Kahya Springs