Away on holiday

This column is now taking a short holiday and expects to be back on Sunday May 3rd. Today (April 25) we have racing from Sandown (the final day of the U.K. jumps season and also the final rides of Champion Jockey AP McCoy) as the big meeting of the day, while you can look forward to the big Irish jumps meeting at Punchestown next week as well as the start of the Newmarket Guineas meeting.

3 Group Races at Sandown

lots of racing today, three meetings in the afternoon and four in the evening, but pride of place clearly goes to Sandown, which stages an excellent card with 3 group races. In the old days this used to be a mixed meeting, but now we have only flat racing on the Friday and only jumps racing on the Saturday, which marks the official end of the U.K. 2014-5 N.H. season. It will also mark the end of the most successful jumps career of all time - that of AP McCoy who finally hangs up his boots tomorrow after more than 4000 winners and as champion jockey for the 20th successive season.
The main feature today is the Group Two Mile at 15.30 CET, in which Here Comes When (Andrew Balding/ Jim Crowley) makes his reappearance; he ended last season by winning the Oettingen-Rennen at Baden-Baden and then the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket, with Breton Rock (David Simcock/ Martin Lane) a close third and now 4 lbs better off. Custom Cut (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) won 5 successive races last season before getting bogged down in the heavy ground in an Ascot Group One. Bow Creek (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick) also finished last season on a high by winning his last 2 races, but the one to beat is clearly Shifting Power (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who is best in at these weights and represents a stable famous for its milers - the Hannons have won this 7 times in the last 11 years. Shifting Power was 4th in the 200 Guineas last year and runner-up in the Irish version and also the Jean Prat. A repetition of those pieces of form would suffice here.
With the regrettable absense of French challenger Grey Lion, the Classic Trial over 10 furlongs at 16.00 is now down to 4 runners, and Commemorative (Charlie Hills/ Frankie Dettori) is clear top-rated here. He was beaten less than 3 lengths when third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and before that had won well over a mile at Newmarket; the extra distance is not expected to be a problem. It certainly won´t bother Cape Clear Island (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore), a 14-1 winner over this trip in the valuable Tattersalls sales race at Newmarket last week. He is probably not one of O´Brien´s main classic hopes, but his runners must never be underestimated. Master Apprentice (Balding/ David Probert) and Snoano (John Gosden/ Dane O´Neill) need to improve on their juvenile form to figure here. The same trainers have in our opinion much better chances in the Gordon Richards Stakes, also over 10 furlongs, at 15.00. Balding runs Tullius (Jimmy Fortune), a very smatrt miler but trying this trip for the first time, while Gosden has booked Dettori for Western Hymn, who won the classic trial here last year. Both of them however would probably prefer softer ground, and the specialist for today´s fast going is Postponed (Luca Cumani/ Adam Kirby), not seen since winning the Great Voltigeur but equally at home over this trip. Cannock Chase (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore) is a big danger; the lightly-raced colt won all his 3 races last season and could go right to the top.

please note: this column is now going on a short holiday and will be back on May 3rd

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Yeenaan - Mukhayyam - Spring Offensive
2. Race: Cannock Chase - Postponed - Western Hymn
3. Race: Bow Creek - Here Comes When - Shifting Power
4. Race: Cape Clear Island - Snoano - Master Apprentice
5. Race: Waady - Thahab - Profitable
6. Race: Moonlight Sonata - Leading Design - June
7. Race: Stravagante - Jack Hobbs - Dartmouth

6 more meetings today

once again we have 6 meetings today, but all at a very low level and some small fields as well. We have flat racing this afternoon at Beverley and this evening at Bath (very firm going) and Southwell (all-weather), while there is jumping this afternoon at Warwick and Perth while there is a mixed meeting in Ireland at Tipperary, with 4 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles.


The two top races at Warwick have only tiny fields and from the betting point of view, the handicap chase over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 15.10 CET is more interesting. Allthekingshorses (Philip Hobbs/ James Best) was expected to run well in a similar race at Exeter last week but spoilt his chances by poor jumping; with a clear round he must go close today, but we just prefer High Ron (Caroline Bailey/ Andrew Thornton), who should find conditions ideal.

The best race at Beverley is the 3yo handicap over 7 1/2 furlongs at 16.00 with another small field. This should mainly concern the two top-weights Pleiades (Sir Michael Stoute/ Graham Gibbons) and Bow and Arrow (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick). The former has not been seen since winning over this CD last September and on pedigree will probably need longer distances this year, so we go for the Godolphin runner, who has good form on the all-weather to his credit.

Philip Hobbs sends his main jockey Richard Johnson to Scotland for the second day of Perth´s meeting and the combination can land the main event, a handicap chase at 17.20 over 2 1/2 miles with another very small field, with Filbert. Johnson also teams up three times with Irish trainer Gordon Elliott, who has a 30% strike rate here - with Skilled at 15.20, Tom´s Article an hour later, and Eshtiaal at 18.25 and all must be seriously considered.

Of the various German-breds running today, the one we like best is Dandy (Andrew Balding/ Rob Hornby) in the 19.25 race at Bath. He is unreliable, but shows his best form on firm ground and in fact is now lower in the weights than winning over this CD last July with this claimer on board.

advance notice: please note that this column will be on holiday next week (from April 25 to May 2 inclusive).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Arranmore Girl - Ayresome Angel - Lady Mcguffy
2. Race: Thowar - Beach Action - Mustaqbal
3. Race: Pleiades - Bow And Arrow - Enlace
4. Race: Saved By The Bell - Leaderene - Full Day
5. Race: Next Stop - Atlantic Affair - Gleese The Devil
6. Race: Stay Strong - All My Love - Thankstomonty
7. Race: Thunder In Myheart - Goring - Liberty Sky

Epsom Derby trial

six meetings again today, but much stronger cards than yesterday, including decent jumping from Perth with many top trainers from down south making the long trip to Scotland, but the main focus is on the opening of the new season at Epsom with the Derby Trial over 10 furlongs at 16.20 CET as the top feature. Stamina could be a problem here with most of the 5 runners having so far run only over a mile, but the two most likely winners not only have the best form but are also bred to stay this far and have Derby entries. They are Christophermarlowe (John Gosden/ Frankie Dettori), who won both his starts last season, and Future Empire (Saeed bin Suroor/ James Doyle), placed in a group race last time out. However we definitely prefer the former, who looks to have lots of improvement to come and is quoted at 33-1 for the Derby itself. He runs in the Tabor colours but it is in fact half-owned by the trainer´s wife Rachel Hood, Mayor of Newmarket. The race is supported by some hot handicaps, especially the historic City & Suburban over the same trip at 16.55. This looks very open, and the field includes last year´s winner Sennockian Star (Mark Johnston/ William Buick), who however appears to have lost form and we prefer his stable companion Fire Fighting (Joe Fanning), while bottom-weight Collaboration (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) is a clear threat after his easy win in a lower grade at Windsor, and What About Carlo (Eve Johnson Houghton/ Jimmy Fortune) is another one with an obvious chance after a CD win last summer. The Great Metropolitan at 15.45 is another historic title, but this race has lost most of its former glory and is now just anothert 1 1/2 mile handicap, in which we expect CD winner Barwick (Graham Mays/ Jim Crowley), top-weight and irish-trained Maid of the Glens (Pat Shanahan/ Shane Foley) and front-runner Stetchworth (Johnston/ Fanning) to get involved. The card opens with another very tricky handicap, this time over 5 furlongs at 15.10, with several CD specialists in the field. Some of them are certainly being aimed at he Dash on Derby Day and as Smoothtalkingrascal (Peter Crate/ Shane Kelly) has already run well twice in that event we make him a tentative selection here. Frankie also rides the German-bred Gayath for Richatrd Hannon and Al Shaqab racing in the mile maiden at 17.30; this one however needs to improve considerably on his debut performance to have any chance against the useful Mezajy (Ed Walker/ Biuick) while the very well-bred Mr Quicksilver (Balding/ Oisin Murphy) is a very interesting candidate here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Long Awaited - Secret Missile - Fair Value
2. Race: Stetchworth - Instant Karma - Barwick
3. Race: Christophermarlowe - Future Empire - Dance Of Fire
4. Race: Mount Logan - Fire Fighting - What About Carlo
5. Race: Mezajy - Mile High - Mr Quicksilver
6. Race: New Strategy - American Artist - Lear`s Rock

6 poor meetings with very small fields

6 meetings today but from a betting perspective of very little interest. Not only is the standard low throughout, there are some very small fields, including no fewer than 3 matches at Exeter. This meeting is best ignored, while at the other British jumps meeting at Ludlow there is only one race with normal each-way betting - the 3 mile handicap chase at 15.40 CET. Our choice here is King Massini (Evan Williams/ Adam Wedge), who is not the most consistent but usually goes well at this track and will be suited by the fast ground.
The situation is not much better with the 3 flat cards which are all very uninspiring . At Kempton 6 of the 7 races are low level handicaps, the exception being the 7 furlongs maiden at 15.50, arguably the most interesting race of the day with two well-bred sorts from top stables in the line-up - Bold (Roger Charlton/ Jimmy Fortune) and New Style (Saeed bin Suroor/ James Doyle); we prefer the Godolphin 3yo, who showed little on his only start so far but is surely capable of picking up a small race at some time - possibly today. Later on, the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.55 will not require much winning; perhaps Argot (Charlie Longsdon/ Dane O´Neill) is the answer, he is up in trip but has run well over hurdles and has in fact been runner-up over sticks on all 3 starts this year.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Upsanddowns - Are They Your Own - Captain Starlight
2. Race: Sublime Talent - Town Mouse - Tour D`Argent
3. Race: Guiding George - Aerial - King Massini
4. Race: Jimmy The Jetplane - Queen Spud - Va`vite
5. Race: Nefyn Bay - Hawdyerwheesht - Seacon Beg
6. Race: Neverownup - Rockiteer - Joker Choker
7. Race: Mere Anarchy - Charlie`s Oscar - Cosmic Diamond

6 meetings today

With the season for evening racing now getting under way, we have 6 meetings today, 3 each in the afternoon and evening, and also 3 each on the flat and over jumps, but it has to be said that none of the races is wildly exciting.

Best race on the flat is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.20 CET at Pontefract; the two we like best here are Yeeoow (Karl Burke/ Joey Haynes) and Supplicant (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), both of whom are on a long losing run but have come down quite a bit in the weights as a result. We give slight preference to bottom-weight Yeeoow, who was third in this last year off a higher rating and is fit from recent runnings on the all-weather. Also at Pontefract is the second stage of the year.long marathon series over almost 2 3/4 miles at 16.50; 6 of the 8 runners ran in the first stage 2 weeks ago, won by Suprise Vendor (Coltherd/ Jason Hart), but the weights have been adjusted, so that the result could this time be reversed.

The best race at Windsor this evening is another 6 furlongs handicap at 19.25, which looks very tricky. Marmalady (Gary Moore/ George Baker) is a very tentative suggestion here. The card at the Irish meeting at Cork is mainly very low level, but the 3yo maiden at 19.15 could be interesting with runners from some of the top stables; Tadaany (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) showed promise on his only outing last season and could be the answer here.

By far the best horse running over jumps today is Far West (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), who goes for the novice chase at 19.05 at Newton Abbot. Nicholls won this last year with subsequent Grade One scorer Mr.Mole and this one is of similar ability; unfortunately he has scared off most of the opposition and will be at a ridiculous price to defeat his two modest opponents.

Pontefract - betting forecast:
1. Race: Black Magic - Racing Venture - Four`s Company
2. Race: Express Himself - Dubai Hills - Dubai Dynamo
3. Race: Lexington Abbey - Supplicant - Sunraider
4. Race: Tuscan Gold - Riptide - Chevalgris
5. Race: Tadarrok - Paco`s Sunshine - Taffetta
6. Race: Dream Ally - Sleeping Apache - Where The Boys Are

black type races at the Curragh

a very quiet day in the U.K. with two relatively low level jumps meetings at Wincanton and Stratford, with some very small fields as well, but a much better flat card in Ireland. Main feature at the Curragh is the Gladness Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.50 CET, in which Aidan O´Brien - now coming strongly into form- saddles two runners, Due Diligence with son Joseph in the saddle and the 3yo Smuggler´s Cove, getting lots of weight from the older horses, with Seamie Heffernan. Due Diligence signed off last season with an excellent second place in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot; that is the best form in this field but one has to worry why he has been off so Long and whether he will get the extra furlong here. There are no such worries about the 3yo, both of whose wins came over this trip, and he is our selection. The jockey bookings mean little here. as Joseph cannot do this weight. Sruthan (Peter Deegan/ Chris Hayes) won this last year and is an obvious danger, while so could Alkasser (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) and Cable Bay (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) be in view of the excellent stable form.

The Alleged Stakes half an hour later has a strong field on paper, but some of the contestants have questions to answer. That goes especially for the O´Briens´ Geoffrey Chaucer, a Group Two winner at two, but who ran deploringly on his last 2 starts last year, when last in the Derby at Epsom and second last in the German version at Hamburg. Parish Hall (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) was another top 2yo - in fact he won the Dewhurst- but his later form is a bit patchy although he has a good record over this CD and won this race in 2013. However he is penalised for winning a group race over this CD last year and we cannot see him giving so much weight to the Aga Khan filly Massinga (Weld/ Smullen), who has won 3 of her 4 starts and looks well cpable of winning here after scoring a fortnight ago in a fillies listed race at Cork.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fisherman`s Blues - Ard San Aer - Touch Of Frost
2. Race: Penny Pepper - Future Icon - Sugar Mill
3. Race: Beau Satchel - Elusive In Paris - Oor Jock
4. Race: Smuggler`s Cove - Sovereign Debt - Sruthan
5. Race: Massinga - Aussie Valentine - On Location
6. Race: Papa`s Way - Stronger Than Me - Moonmeister
7. Race: Aared - Morning Mix - Time To Inspire

Scottish Grand National at Ayr

there is also plenty of jumping today, with Ayr staging its best jumping card of the year, featuring the Scottish Grand National over 4 miles at 16,45 with 30 runners. Many of these have already met several times, including Al Co (Peter and Sean Bowen), who won it last year. He ran last week at Aintree, but was hampered st the first fence and unseated his rider, hardly the ideal preparation. Trustan Times (Tim Easterby/ James Reveley) fibnished a Close third last yrear and seems well handicapped this time. The Irish challenge is strong with Goonyella (Jim Dreaper/ Jonathan Burke) winning the Midlands Grand National from Raz de Maree (Sandra Hughes/ Bryan Cooper) and Gallant Oscar (Tony Martin/ Paul Carberry) placed in some top handicaps, but they do not seem to be well handicapped this time. Nor is Sam Winner (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), third in the Lexus, but burdened here with top weight. Obviously almost anything could win this, but if Trustan Times can run the same race that he did a year ago, them he must for us have a very solid each-way chance.

The supporting races includes several more valuable handicaps,including the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 15.35 which looks almost as difficult. Nicholls has two fancied runners here, Calipto (Sam T-D) and top-weight, German-bred irving (Nick Scholfield). Despite the stable jockey´s choosing the other one, we hope that Irving can score here; he was a bit unlucky last time, and the trainer wisely did not run him at Cheltenham. He is the best horse in the field and we hope he proves it today. Another German-bred here is Seventh Sky (Charlie Mann/ Gavin Sheehan) in the Future Champions Chase at 15.00; he has had a great season with 5 wins, bit this race looks tough and he must surely be feeling the effects of his strenuous campaign by now.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Runswick Royal - The Last Samuri - Puffin Billy
2. Race: Top Gamble - Solar Impulse - Seventh Sky
3. Race: Sign Of A Victory - Irving - Calipto
4. Race: Strongpoint - Duke Of Navan - Dunraven Storm
5. Race: Gallant Oscar - Broadway Buffalo - Catching On
6. Race: Upsilon Bleu - Rock The Kasbah - Rascal
7. Race: Grape Tree Flame - Avidity - Palm Grey
8. Race: William Henry - Sir Will - Lettheriverrundry

classic trials at Newbury

easily the best flat racing today comes from Newbury, where there are 3 group races on the card, two of them classic trials over the straight 7 furlongs. Trainer Richard Hannon and his stable Jockey, brother-in-law Richard Hughes, have a great record here; the stable won both classic trials at Newmarket earlier in the week and have a good chance of going so again here with Tiggy Wiggy in the fillies race at 15,15 CET and the colts race at 16.50 with Ivawood. Both were not only top 2yo´s last year but they also both have a similar profile in that they have never run beyond 6 furlongs, so that one has to take their stamina on trust. This is especially true of Tiggy Wiggy, who was rated the top juvenile filly in Europe last year, but her headstrong style of racing could be a problem over this trip. However she has so much in hand on official ratings that we think that she could manage it today - although we certainly could not fancy her for the Guineas. Jellicle Ball (John Gosden/ Ryan Moore) won her only start last year- over 7 furlongs on the all-weather- and could be the main danger, although we would not be surprised to see another Kempton 7 furlongs winner Redstart (Ralph Beckett/ Pat Dobbs), whose trainer does so well with fillies, run into the places. We are slightly less confident about Ivawood, as the Greenham - won in the past by such champions as Frankel and KIngman- looks a much stronger race. Belardo (Roger Varian/ James Doyle) won the Dewhurst last year, but might possibly prefer softer going, while Irish hope Dick Whittington (Aidan O´Brien/ Moore) obviously has to be respected.

The John Porter Stakes over 1 1/2 miles at 14.445 also has stroing fiueld, including several runners with cöassic form. Romsdal (Gosden/ Doyle) has the best form, having finished third in the Derby and runner-up in the St. Leger, with Windshear (Hannon/ Hughes) fourth and German-bred Scotland (Andrew Balding/ Jim Crowley) last. Despite that, we expect Scotland to run much better today with the stable already doing well; he is one of two Monsuns in the race, the other being Arab Spring (Soir Michael Stoute/ Moore), who however may need the race. Hannon´s other runner Pethers Moon (Dobbs) has plenty of good form at this level, but has a 5 lbs penalty, which makes life difficult in this company.

The hottest trainer of all this season so far is Dermot Weld and we expect him to continue in winning form at the Irish meeting at Navan where he has 3 runners, all of whom could win; we especially like Summaya (ridden like the others by stable jockey Pat Smullen) in the listed race for 3yo fillies at 16.30.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mahsoob - Lunasea - Viewpoint
2. Race: Romsdal - Windshear - Arab Spring
3. Race: Jellicle Ball - Russian Punch - Royal Razalma
4. Race: Ivawood - Estidhkaar - Belardo
5. Race: Gabrial - Buckstay - Brownsea Brink
6. Race: Mr Singh - Murgan - Trademark
7. Race: Intilaaq - Keble - Ice Lord
8. Race: Wheat Sheaf - Sahaafy - Druids Ridge

Ayr and Newbury

plenty of racing today with evening racing getting under way and we have in all 7 meetings, but easily the best are Newbury on the flat and Ayr over jumps. Both are gearing up for big days tomorrow, with the former staging its classic trials and the latter the Scottish Grand National, but today´s cards are also interesting.

Newbury has 3 races for 3yo maidens on the card; These are tricky for betting purposes, as there is very little form to go on, but they should be watched carefully as there are well-bred runners from top stables engaged. The 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs at 16.25 also looks difficult, but the 5 furlongs handicap for older horses at 16.55 CET is more interesting and all 7 runners have a chance. Lucky Beggar (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) won this last year and on that form holds top-weight Steps (Roger Varian/ Graham Lee), who is up to listed standard. However we are not sure that they will like the firm going and prefer Green Door (Olly Stevens/ Andrea Atzeni), who has not won since taking a Group Two over this trip at Doncaster 18 months ago, but looks very nicely handicapped now. The 2 mile handicap at 18.00 is another open race. Dumbfounbded (Graham Mays/ Cam Hardie) finally came good and won on the all-wreatjher last time; he is relatively unexposed and can score again under 6 lbs extra, but Our Folly (Wilf Kittow/ Tom Queally), runner-up here last year, looks very dangerous.

The Queen has several runners at Newbuy, but her best chance of a winner is possibly at Ayr where Special Agent (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass) runs in the handicap hurdle at 15.30. He is certainly not bred to over 3 miles over sticks, but has won 2 of his 4 starts and this is possibly his true metier. Another very lightly-raced sort is Work in Progress (Dan and Harry Skelton) at 15.00, although he has ben put up for falling last time, which seems rather unfair. APMcCoy is here on his farewell tour and must have a chance on the well-handicapped Tap Night at 16.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Yet Again - Stubbins - Destalink
2. Race: Sanaadh - Ring Of Truth - Hawkbill
3. Race: Winters Moon - Star Of Seville - Ooty Hill
4. Race: Capel Path - Sugar Boy - Strong Chemistry
5. Race: Normal Equilibrium - Lucky Beggar - Steps
6. Race: Multilingual - Yasmeen - Vibe Queen
7. Race: Gimme Five - Dumbfounded - Karam Albaari
8. Race: Forever Popular - Shoal - Synopsis

Newmarket: Craven Stakes

The Craven Stakes, run today at 17.05 CET at Newmarket, used to be the most important trial for the 2000 Guineas; this is actually no longer the case in view of the competing classic trials in France and Ireland and in particular for the modern habit of running the top 3yo´s in the first classic without having a prep race at all. However today´s event is still a good race and the Hannon stable, who have won it for the past 3 years, have good prospects with two runners - Kool Kompany (Richard Hughes) and Moheet (Frankie Dettori). The former won 4 of his 8 starts last season, including two Group Twos, but he is penalised for that and we prefer the less exposed runner, who is running in the same Al Shaqab colours as yesterday´s Nell Gwyn winner Osaila. Irish raider War Envoy (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) could be the main danger, although he is unlikely to be the stable´s main Guineas hope.

The race is supported by two Group races for older horses, the Abernant Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.30 and the Earl of Sefton over 9 furlongs at 17.40. The former, the first significant sprint of the season, actually has a 3yo running against the older sprinters, Angelic Lord (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote) and although he might take top rank later, we feel that it is a bit early for the younger horses and prefer Music Master (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill), who had good form last season in the top races over this distance. There is a German runner in the latter race, the very lightly-raced Schlenderhan-bred Iman, owned by Stall Salzburg and trained by Ilka Gansera. He must show enormous improvement to figure here - not impossible with this trainer- but for now we expect Arod (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Andrea Atzeni), runner-up in last year´s Dante and 4th in the Derby, to score today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Show Day - Sense Of Fun - War Queen
2. Race: Barreesh - Argus - Markstein
3. Race: Secret Brief - Azmaam - Cape Clear Island
4. Race: Music Master - Astaire - Angelic Lord
5. Race: Nafaqa - Moheet - White Lake
6. Race: French Navy - Mondialiste - Arod
7. Race: Black Cherry - Hundi - Golden Laughter
8. Race: Mohatem - Muqtaser - Dissolution

Newmarket season starts today

for many race fans, the flat season only begins properly with Newmarket´s Craven Meeting and today´s card - almost exclusively races for 3yos -fills the bill perfectly. We cannot promise that there will any classic winners running today, but there are certainly plenty of likely runners in the classics and almost bound to be some star performers later in the season.

Today´s main feature is the Nell Gwyn Stakes for 3yo fillies over 7 furlongs at 17.05 CET and most of the 8 runners hold a 1000 Guineas entry. Osaila (Richard Hannon/ Frankie Dettori) is the highest-rated, having won a group race last year before running third at the Breeders Cup, but the two most interesting runners are Beautiful Romance (Saeed bin Suroor/ James Doyle) and Lady Correspondent (John Gosden/ Ryan Moore), both winners of their only start last season and expected to make a big Impact this year.

Gosden fields a strong team today and will certainly be expected to take the Free Handicap at 16.30 with Faydhan (Paiul Hanagan), also winner of his only start in 2014 and currently second favourite for the 2,000 Guineas. The Tattersal.ls sprint over 6 furlongs at 15.55 has also attracted a strong field, for all that it is restricted sales race, and Aidan O´Brien sends a runner over from Ireland , The Warrior (Ryan Moore). He has already scored this season, having won a maiden on heavy ground at the Curragh´s opening day, but this looks much tougher and we like Encore d´Or (Ralph Beckett/ Ricjhard Kingscote), a half-brother to multiple Group One winning sprinter Equiano.

Gosden runs another once-only-raced winner at 17.40, Golden Horn (Dettori) and this one could also win, although the Queen´s Peacock (Hannon/ Hughes) is also regarded as a live Derby prospect, while Festive Fair (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick) and Disegno (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore) are also possibles in what looks the most competitive race of the day. A good performance from Golden Horn would also point to the chances of Storm The Stars (William Haggas/ Hughes) in the following maiden race over 10 furlongs as the two of them fought out a great finish at Nottingham in October.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hakam - Akeed Champion - Acaster Malbis
2. Race: Swirral Edge - Gifted Master - Haughmond
3. Race: The Warrior - Heartbreak Hero - Sulaalaat
4. Race: Home Of The Brave - Jungle Cat - Glenalmond
5. Race: Osaila - Beautiful Romance - Muraaqaba
6. Race: Festive Fare - Golden Horn - Peacock
7. Race: Storm The Stars - Joseph Jefferson - Global Force
8. Race: Spiriting - Properus - Salt Island

3 poor meetings today

With Newmarket´s Craven Meeting starting tomorrow, today offers only low level racing, over jumps at Exeter and Carlisle and on the all-weather at Southwell. There are some very small fields, so that betting opportunities are limited.

Easily the best horse running today is Sgt Reckless (Mick Channon/ Brian Hughes) who runs in the novice chase at 16.10 CET at Carlisle. He was a respectable sixth in the Arkle at Cheltenham and a repetition of that form would make him virtually unbeatable here; however he is unlikely to be at a working man´s price. Hughes has a chance of following up at a much better price on Malcolm Jefferson´s Our Boy Ben at 17.50, and if that one runs well, it would be a pointer to the chancs of a Be A Dreamer (Sue Smith/ Sean Quinlan) in the next race, as he finished in front of him at Sedgefield last time.

Main Feature at Exeter is the Marathon chase at 16.00. Allthekingshorses (Philip Hobbs/ Jim Best) was runner-up here last year and can go one better this time. Adrenalin Flight (Seamus Mullins/ Andrew Thornton) won here over 4 miles before Christmas and looks the main danger.

At Southwell we like Haines (Andrew Balding/ Edward Greatrex) in the apprentice handicap at 18.30. Balding is an excellent trainer of apprentices and this horse, who is running at Southwell for tjhe first time, has won his last 3 races at other all-weather tracks.

Carlisle - betting forecast:
1. Race: My Friend George - Purple Harry - See The Legend
2. Race: Beyondtemptation - Knight Valliant - Bryden Boy
3. Race: Pekanheim - Neville Woods - Ivans Back
4. Race: Gingili - Parles Pond - Smoothie Press On
5. Race: Vasco D`ycy - Bearly Legal - Trust Thomas
6. Race: Scimon Templar - Whiskey Chaser - Colms Dream
7. Race: Abricot De L`oasis - Be A Dreamer - The Gunner Brady
8. Race: Down The Line - Return Flight - Far From Defeat

Mondays at Windsor

it´s a sign of summer coming when Windsor opens its doors for the season, and from now on there will be racing at the Thames-side track almost every Monday until the autumn, usually in the evenings. It is not yet light enough for evening racing - that starts next week- but there are 8 races there this afternoon. Richard Hughes., now in his final season, is the top jockey here and he rides in every race, in the first six for brother-in-law Richard Hannon, and the pair can expect to go home with a winner or two, with perhaps their best chance in the 3yo handicap at 15.10 CET with Sugar Lump.

There is also flat racing today at Redcar, with the mile handicap at 16.50 the main event. Taghreed (Brian Meehan/ Paul Hanagan), one of severall runners here for Hamdan al Maktoum, is the interesting one, as he won his only start last year and is difficult for the handicapper to assess; however the trainer has not hit form so far tjhis year, so we prefer the more proven Ellaal (Ruth Carr/ Peter McDonald), beaten only a short head over this CD last week.
There is jumping at Kelso in the Scottish Borders and Tramore in S.Ireland. The one we like here is German-bred Quicuyo (James Ewart/ Lucy Alexander) at 15.30; this full brother to Grosser Preis von Baden winner Quijano has not won for 3 years, but has come down a lot in the weights and meets much weaker opposition than usual. Lucy´s father and brother are represented by CD specialist Isla Pearl Fisher 2 hours later, and these two 12yo´s could provide the Alexander family with an each-way double.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fit - Beaverbrook - Raj To Riches
2. Race: Sugar Lump - Rio Ronaldo - Acolyte
3. Race: Winterval - Jersey Jewel - I Zingari
4. Race: Isamol - Plane Song - June
5. Race: Living Leader - Flipping - Filosofo
6. Race: Asima - Regards - Lear`s Rock
7. Race: Collaboration - Water Dancer - Lu`s Buddy
8. Race: Chauvelin - Diaktoros - Symphony Of Kings

Classic trials at Leopardstown

3 of today´s 4 meetings in the U.K. and Ireland are over jumps, but it is the other card that interests us most - Leopardstown with its trials for the Irish (and other) classics.

Main feature is the Ballysax Stakes over 10 furlongs at 16.50 CET, a race that has been won in the past by such giants as Galileo, High Chaparral and Fame and Glory, all of whom went on to Derby success and all trained by Aidan O´Brien. Today he runs John F. Kennedy, already favourite for Epsom and to be ridden by Ryan Moore, who has flown back from Australia for the occasion and is expected to be the main jockey for Ballydoyle this season. He has only 2 opponents today and will be at long odds-on - but is by no means certain to win. O´Brien has made a slow start to the season, while his main rival - and our favourite trainer in Ireland - Dermot Weld is in fantastic form, with 4 winners yesterday and operating at a 50% strike rate so far this year. Weld saddles the Aga Khan´s Zafinali, who is also pretty decent. In theory JFK should win, but the Weld colt might be a better bet at the likely odds.

However this race goes, Weld and O´Brien clash in several other races today and overall we certainly expect Weld to finish the day on top. He should take the listed 2000 Guineas Trial at 15.40 with Zawrak and also has a good chance in the 1000 Guineas Trial at 16.15 with Stormfly, who has already started off with a win this year. This race looks quite open, but Weld´s stable form is certainly a factor to be considered.

All Weld´s runners will of course by partnered by his stable jockey, and Irish champion, Pat Smullen, and the duo also have good possibilities at 15.10 with Zannda, at 17.20 with Zafayan, who has been placed 4 times over hurdles since he last ran on the flat, and at 17.55 with Sierra Sun.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Zannda - Wedding Vow - Athassel Abbey
2. Race: Zawraq - Jamaica - Parish Boy
3. Race: Calypso Beat - Legatissimo - Stroll Patrol
4. Race: John F Kennedy - Zafilani - Success Days
5. Race: Zafayan - Tooreen Legend - Fog Of War
6. Race: Aussie Valentine - Third Dimension - Vitally Important
7. Race: Lean And Keen - Unsinkable - Oor Jock

Grand National at Aintree

The Grand National, run this afternoon at 17.15 CET over 4 miles 3 furlongs at Aintree is the best-known race in the world and also the biggest betting event of them all. Carlo Brigante is a non-runner; top-weight Lord Windermere will be ridden by Brian O´Connell, as Robbie McNamara had a bad fall yesterday at Wexford.
The going is good to soft/ good in places. There was some early morning rain, but not much by the sound of it and it is expected to be dry and windy this afternoon.

With 39 runners almost anything can happen and the luck of the race will be decisive. All 39 are qualified and none of them is without a chance, but certain aspects must be considered. One is that a large number of runners have been specially trained for the race, often since last year, and their connections have gone to great lengths to protect their handicap rating, whether by running in the wrong races or by not running at all. The National is the only handicap in which winners after the weights have been published are given no penalty,so it is worth having a second look at those who have won since. Five come into this category, Rocky Creek (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), Soll (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), Rebel Rebellion (Nicholls/ Ryan Mahon), Cause of causes (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry) and The Druids Nephew (Neil Mulholland/ Aidan Coleman). Timeform have given the last-named as the best in on current ratings, but we definitely prefer Rocky Creek, most impressive at Kempton last time and from a trainer/ jockey team in fantastic form. We also like Cause of Causes, whose trainer is also in great form. However he is owned by JP McManus, whose main jockey AP McCoy long ago decided to partner Jonjo O´Neill´s Shutthefrontdoor and connections have repeatedly expressed their optimism. With McCoy due to retire - probably immediately after the race if he wins- this would be the most popular result of all, although plenty will also be rooting for First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris/ Nina Carberry), as it is certainly time for a woman jockey to win here. However we are not really convinced that he will stay this far - which applies to quite a few of the runners as many of them are trying the trip for the first time.

There are only very few chases over 4 miles plus, so the previous year´s result is also a good guide, although the great Red Rum was the last horse to win more than once - and that was 40 years ago. Last year´s winner Pineau de Re (Dr. Newland/ Daryl Jacob) tries again, as does runner-up Balthazar King (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), 4th-placed Alvarado (Fergal O´Brien/ Paul Moloney), while Rocky Creek was only fifth. Oldtimer Oscar Time (Robert and Sam Waley-Cohen) must also be considered as he has twice finished in the frame and his amateur rider is actually the most successful jockey of all on the National course.

Our hunch horse here is Spring Heeled (Jim Culloty/ Nick Scholfield), who seems to have been given an old-fashioned preparation - as has Shutthefrontdoor- although he will not find it easy to confirm last year´s Cheltenham win over Cause of Causes at these weights.

We will stick our neck out and take 4 against the field:
Rocky Creek, Shutthefrontdoor, Cause of Causes and Spring Heeled.

Aintree Grand National meeting: day two

another high class card at Aintree today, but looking very tricky for punters wth question marks hanging over several of the leading candidates.

Main feature is the Melling Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.25 CET and this intermediate distance is the problem- too far possibly for some and too short for others. Al Ferof (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) was third in the King George over 3 miles, with Champagne Fever (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) a close 4th, Cue Card (Colin Tizzard/ Daryl Jacob) 5th and Johns Spirit (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richie Mclernon) 6th. They should all be better suited by today´s trip, while Sire de Grugy (Gary and Joh Moore) and Simply Ned (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding), 4th and 5th in the Queen Mother, are two-milers. The one they all have to beat is Don Cossack (Gordon Elliott/ AP McCoy), slightly below form in the Ryanair - but he seems not to like Cheltenham anyway. This is his ideal trip, but we are definitely worried about the Nicholls and Mullins runners.

The other graded races are for novices. Nicholls has a strong hand in the 3 mile 1 furlong chase at 15.50 with Irish Saint (Nick Scholfield) and Saphir du Rheu (Sam TD); the latter is clear top-rated, but this is based more on his hurdles form and in fact his chase form is not so special, he has only won once over fences and failed to complete on his other starts, while Irish Saint has been very consistent he is up in distance but gives the Impression that he can stay. The main dangers are probably Ainsi Fideles (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), who has won 7 of his last 8 races - but all in modest company- and Caroles Destrier (Neil Mulholland/ AP McCoy).
They go over the same distance over hurdles at 17.40, where we make the unbeaten Minella Rocco (Jonjo/ AP) and Roi des Francs (Mullins/ Walsh) the two to beat, while in the shorter novice hurdle at 15.15 we think that the obvious form choice Glingerburn (Richards/ Harding) could be another shaky favourite and prefer John Ferguson´s two flat-bred runners Commissioned (Richard Johnson) and Qewy (McCoy).

The handicaps are of course extremely difficult, but we are hoping for a German-berd winner in the ooener at 14.40. Nexius (Keith Dalgleish/ Paul Townend) was most impressive when winning last time out, and although he has been put up a stone, is still our main hope, as we have not forgotten that he was third to Novellist in the Union-Rennen in 2012. The Topham Chase at 17.05 is almost impossible with 30 runners - we shall go for longshot Maggio each-way, but almost anything could win this.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: The Saint James - Knight`s Parade - Theinval
2. Race: Glingerburn - Qewy - Vago Collonges
3. Race: Saphir Du Rheu - Irish Saint - Carole`s Destrier
4. Race: Champagne Fever - Don Cossack - Al Ferof
5. Race: Rajdhani Express - Monetaire - Ruben Cotter
6. Race: Vyta Du Roc - Minella Rocco - Roi Des Francs
7. Race: Persian Delight - Buveur D`air - Bellshill

Aintree Grand National meeting: day two

Another high class card at Aintree today, but looking very tricky for punters wth question marks hanging over several of the leading candidates. Main feature is the Melling Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.25 and this intermediate distance is the problem- too far possibly for some and too short for others. Al Ferof (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) was third in the King George over 3 miles, with Champagne Fever (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) a close 4th, Cue Card (Colin Tizzard/ Daryl Jacob) 5th and Johns Spirit (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richie Mclernon) 6th. They should all be better suited by today´s trip, while Sire de Grugy (Gary and Joh Moore) and Simply Ned (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding), 4th and 5th in the Queen Mother, are two-milers. The one they all have to beat is Don Cossack (Gordon Elliott/ AP McCoy), slightly below form in the Ryanair - but he seems not to like Cheltenham anyway. This is his ideal trip, but we are definitely worried about the Nicholls and Mullins runners.

The other graded races are for novices. Nicholls has a strong hand in the 3 mile 1 furlong chase at 15.50 with Irish Saint (Nick Scholfield) and Saphir du Rheu (Sam TD); the latter is clear top-rated, but this is based more on his hurdles form and in fact his chase form is not so special, he has only won once over fences and failed to complete on his other starts, while Irish Saint has been very consistent he is up in distance but gives the Impression that he can stay. The main dangers are probably Ainsi Fideles (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), who has won 7 of his last 8 races - but all in modest company- and Caroles Destrier (Neil Mulholland/ AP McCoy).

They go over the same distance over hurdles at 17.40, where we make the unbeaten Minella Rocco (Jonjo/ AP) and Roi des Francs (Mullins/ Walsh) the two to beat, while in the shorter novice hurdle at 15.15 we think that the obvious form choice Glingerburn (Richards/ Harding) could be another shaky favourite and prefer John Ferguson´s two flat-bred runners Commissioned (Richard Johnson) and Qewy (McCoy).

The handicaps are of course extremely difficult, but we are hoping for a German-berd winner in the ooener at 14.40. Nexius (Keith Dalgleish/ Paul Townend) was most impressive when winning last time out, and although he has been put up a stone, is still our main hope, as we have not forgotten that he was third to Novellist in the Union-Rennen in 2012. The Topham Chase at 17.05 is almost impossible with 30 runners - we shall go for longshot Maggio each-way, but almost anything could win this.

Aintree - betting forecast:
1. Race: The Saint James - Knight`s Parade - Theinval
2. Race: Glingerburn - Qewy - Vago Collonges
3. Race: Saphir Du Rheu - Irish Saint - Carole`s Destrier
4. Race: Champagne Fever - Don Cossack - Al Ferof
5. Race: Rajdhani Express - Monetaire - Ruben Cotter
6. Race: Vyta Du Roc - Minella Rocco - Roi Des Francs
7. Race: Persian Delight - Buveur D`air - Bellshill

Aintree Grand National meeting: day one

there are 5 meetings today in the U.K. and Ireland - but only one that counts: the opening day of Aintree´s Grand National meeting, which has a superb card starting off with 4 successive Grade One races. As always, the question is whether Cheltenham form will stand up here on this very different course - flatter, easier and much faster ground as well. There have been a full 4 weeks this time between the two meetings (usually it is only three) so that Cheltenham runners have had an extra week to recover from their exertions, but even so, we are not sure that the Cotswolds form will be confirmed in every case.

The Betfred Bowl over 3 miles 1 furlong at 15.50 CET has the 4th, 7th and 8th from the Gold Cup in the line-up as well as the mare Ma Filleule (Nicky Henderson/ Daryl Jacob), runner-up in the Ryanair. Holywell (Jonjo O´Neill/ AP McCoy) is a CD winner and ran really well at Cheltenham. he will certainly be suited by the better ground; but so will be Silviniaco Conti, beaten favourite in the Gold Cup. The latter won this race last year, has won the King George twice, and we all know that he is not suited by Cheltenham. We expect him to get back on the winning track today, although Holywell could clearly be a problem.

The Aintree Hurdle over 2 1/4 miles at 16.25 has only 6 runners but has an even stronger field. We have two past winners of the Champion Hurdle in Rock on Ruby (Harry Fry/ Fehily) and Jezki (Jessica Harrington/ McCoy) as well as German-bred Arctic Fire (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh). Walsh is riding him for the first time, as he nortmally the sztable´s second strong behind Hurricane Fly, but the Fly is not here and Arctic Fire, who was staying on well at Cheltenham and should certainly handle the extra distance and better ground, can finally win a top race after numerous places. Rock on Ruby is probably better over this trip and we think he could be the bigger danger, as Jezki seems to have lost some of his sparkle this season.

The opening novice chase at 14.40 is also over 2 1/2 miles and also has only 6 runners, 4 of whom ran in the Arkle over 2 miles at Cheltenham. Josses Hill (Henderson/ Nico de Boinville) did best of them in third, with Vibrato Valtat (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) fourth, and Clarcam (Gordon Elliott/ Walsh) and Three KIngdoms (John Ferguson/ McCoy) well back. We are a bit sceptical about Josses Hill, whose jumping is not yer perfect, and think that there could well be a different result this time.

However we certainly expect Cjeltenham form to be upheld in the 4yo hurdle at 15.15. Hargam (Henderson/ McCoy) ran an excellent race to be third to two stable companions in the Triumph Hurdle and should again hold Devilment (Ferguson/ Richard Johnson), a distant fourth, and Stars over the Sea (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), well behind. 3 of the runners also ran in the Fred Winter at the Festival, with All Yours (Nicholls/ S T-D) possibly the best of them now, but the Triumph form looks much stronger.

The Fox Hunters at 17.05 also featutres several whio ran in the equivalent race ot Cheltenham, including the easy winner On The Fringe (Enda Bolger/ Nina Carberry), but the distance this time is much shorter and Chosen Milan (RE Luke/ E David), who ran well for a long time before weakening, could do much better this time. However the most likely winners in our view are Big Fella Thanks (Tom George/ Derek O´Connor), Pacha du Polder (Nicholls/ Biddick) and last year´s winner Warne (BR Hamilton/ Sam Waley-Cohen).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Josses Hill - Vibrato Valtat - Clarcam
2. Race: Hargam - Bristol De Mai - Devilment
3. Race: Holywell - Silviniaco Conti - Ma Filleule
4. Race: Arctic Fire - Jezki - Rock On Ruby
5. Race: On The Fringe - Pacha Du Polder - Warne
6. Race: Next Sensation - Ned Buntline - Ted Veale
7. Race: Call The Cops - Unique De Cotte - Serienschock

listed race at Nottingham

with the big Fairyhouse jumps meeting ending yesterday, and the even bigger Aintree Grand National meeting starting tomorrow, it is no surprise that we take a rest from jumping today, when there is flat racing only in the U.K.

Nottingham has by far the best card, its first of the season, and many of the top trainers have sent runners, including John Gosden, who has starters in 4 races, among them 2 in the main feature, the listed race over 1 3/4 miles at 16.40 CET. They are the two lightly-raced 4yo´s Forever Now (Richard Hughes), 6th of 12 in the St. Leger last year, and recent all-weather winning filly Deuce Again (Rab Havlin). Both should pay their way this year and while the former has easily the better rating, we would not be suprised to see the latter, with fitness assured, do better today. However two other other 4yo fillies Island Remede (Ed Dunlop/ Paul Hanagan) looking very dangerous after her good seasonal debut in similar company at Doncaster, and Cinnilla (Ralph Beckett/ Richard Kingscote) - whose dam was an own sister to German Group One winner Catella- are obvious threats. Having said all that, the one we really like is the Monsun horse Blue Rambler (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick), whose trainer continues in tremendous form (7 winners in the last 6 days); he was well beaten on his U.K. debut last October, but had earlier won 4 races on the trot in France for Andre Fabre, and we think that he could well be up to group class.

Gosden also runs Sacred Act, in the same colours as Forever Now, and with his old stable jockey Buick in the saddle, in the mile handicap at 17.10. This is another very lightly raced and promising sort; he was an easy winner of his maiden at this meeting a year ago and was then unplaced in a hot handicap - in time he will probably turn out to to be the best performer in this field, but for today we would rather rely on Yourartisonfire (Karl Burke/ Silvestre de Siusa), third of 21 in the Doncaster Spring Mile. Another interesting event here is the 5 furlongs conditions race at 16.10, with several of the runners having shown group or listed form. Justineo (Roger Varian/ Graham Lee) even ran last year in the Abbaye, while Dutch Masterpiece (Gary Moore/ Jimmy Fortune) was a group race winner in 2013. Spinatrix (Michael Dods/ Conor Beasley) actually comes out best at the weights with her fillies allowance, but her best form is all at 6 furlongs, so we prefer Humidor (George Baker/ Adam Kirby), who has not won for ages but was runner-up here in 2013 and has plenty of smart form at this trip.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Acaster Malbis - Occult - Alkawn
2. Race: Waady - Bapak Asmara - Rita`s Boy
3. Race: Spinatrix - Dutch Masterpiece - Justineo
4. Race: Forever Now - Island Remede - Blue Rambler
5. Race: Sacred Act - Yourartisonfire - Le Chat D`Or
6. Race: What Asham - Outback Ruler - Lahayeb
7. Race: Noro Lim - Perceived - Sampera

Fairyhouse Easter meeting ends

Today is the third and final day of the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting, but unfortunately the main event, the Grade Two Norman Grove Chase over an extended 2 miles at 16.55 CET has cut up badly. Only 3 runners face the starter, Twinlight (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), Mallowney (Tom Doyle/ Paul Carberry) and Savello (Tony Martin/ Bryan Cooper). All 3 are well up this grade, but Mallowney is best in at the weights and also holds Twinlight on Naas form, while he won easily over this CD before that, so is the obvious choice. From the betting point of view, the two handicap hurdles that follow are more interesting, over 3 miles for novices at 17.25 and over 2 miles half an hour later. Both look wide open and are almost certainly AP McCoy´s last ever rides in Ireland. Obviously it would be nice for him to go out on a winner, and we think his best chance is in the earlier race on Eoin Griffin´s Rathpatrick, who is quite drastically in distance - this may be what he needs. In the 2 mile race he rides top weight Thomas Edison for Tony Martin, and it would be amazing if this wins on his first outing since taking a similar race at Galway last July. We can easily prefer the owner´s Draco (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), but there is very little between this one and Pink Coat (Sandra Hughes/ Luke Dempsey) and Pairofbrowneyes (Liz Doyle/ Shane Flanagan) on their running at Leopardstown in January.

There is no jumping in Britain today, just low level all-weather racing at Lingfield and Chelmsford - with very small fields at both tracks- and turf racing at Pontefract. The best race by far is the 10 furlongs handicap there at 17.00. Astroneus (Amanda Perrett/ Pat Dobbs) - a half-brother by Sea The Stars to French Derby winner and top sire Le Havre- is the favourite here, but we shall take a chance on front-runner Master of Finance (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa), third in last year´s Swiss Derby and well handicapped on that form.

Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse

Easter Monday means lots of low grade jumps racing in the U.K., but it also means a high class card in Ireland at Fairyhouse featuring 4 graded races and the biggest race of the day, the Irish Grand National over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 18.00 CET. With 30 runners this is as tough as the Aintree version coming up on Saturday - and indeed favourite for the latter race is Shutthefrontdoor, who won the Fairyhouse race last year. He is owned by JP McManus, who has 3 runners this time, with his main jockey AP McCoy on Cantlow, trained by Paul Webber; his form figures read terribly, but he is actually well handicapped now and runs for the first time in a tongue tie and definitely comes on to the short list. Another owner keen to win the race is Gigginstown with no fewer than 6 runners- the ones we like best are Thunder and Roses (Sandra Hughes/ Katie Walsh) and Rogue Angel (Mouse Morris/ Nina Carberry).Willie Mullins, strangely enough, has never won this race and now saddles Perfect Gentleman (Ruby Walsh) and Dogora (Paul Townend). Heavily tipped this morning are Los Amigos (Jim Dreaper/ Andrew Lynch) and Empire of Dirt (Colm Murphy/ Luke Dempsey), another Gigginstown runner. Obviously almost any runner could win this; stamina on this ground and good jumping are the prime requirements, but luck in running will be the deciding factor and we hope for a win by one of the two young ladies riding for Gigginstown.
As always Mullins is strongly represented in the graded races, but he did not do as well yesterday as could have been expected and so we are treating his runners with caution. In fact we like the stable´s third choice in the opening 4yo hurdle at 15.45, the ex-German Whiteoak (David Casey); this filly won her only start with the greatest of ease and is taking a huge leap in grade here, as is Sam Red (Alan Fleming/ Adrian Heskin), who finished behind her on his debut but has since won in spectacular style. Mullins also saddles 3 runners in the2 1/2 mile hurdle including last year´s winner Thousand Stars (Walsh); at his best the 11yo would win this, but he has not run since the French Champion Hurdle last June and that looks his target again, so form today we prefer Noble Endeavour (Gordon Eölliott/ Robbie Colgan). Mullins´ best chance is possibly Vroum Vroum Mag (Walsh) in the mares chase at 18.35 but here we like Jessica Harrington´ s Burn and Turn (Robbie Power) in receipt of 5 lbs.
There is also Irish racing at Cork, with 3 flat races followed by 2 bumpers and 2 hunter chases. Main event is the listed Cork Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.30, where the field includes two previous winners in An Saighdur and Bold Thady Quill, but more dangerous could be British raider Aetna (Mick Easterby/ JP O´Brien) and Gathering Power (Eddie Lynam/ Pat Smullen). It is still not clear that Joseph can do the weight, so we go for Smullen, our favourite Irish Jockey.
Fans of German breeding should look at the two maiden races at Redcar, the only other flat card on turf today. Stay Strong at 15.45 is a Monsun colt closely related to Samum, while Well Off at 16.20 is another Monsun colt out of a listed winner; both are owned by Godolphin, trained by Saeed bin Suroor and ridden by James Doyle.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dicosimo - Prussian Eagle - Buiseness Sivola
2. Race: Thousand Stars - Dedigout - Analifet
3. Race: I Shot The Sheriff - Flaming Dawn - Fever Pitch
4. Race: Sempre Medici - Blair Perrone - Max Dynamite
5. Race: Cantlow - Perfect Gentleman - If In Doubt
6. Race: Byerley Babe - Burn And Turn - Dazzling Susie
7. Race: Its The Ice I Like - Coolaghknock Glebe - Ibetellingyoualie
8. Race: Space Cadet - Anibale Fly - Ice Cold Soul

Grade One races in Ireland

Easter Sunday sees jumps racing at 4 tracks, with easily the best sport coming from Ireland, where the going is still very soft/ heavy, while it is drying out rapidly in the U.K. The best races are at Fairyhouse, where the Irish Grand National Meeting starts off with two Grade One races and two more lesser graded events. The main feature is the Ryanair Gold Cup, a novice chase over 2 1/2 miles at 17.20 CET.

Some of the protagonists ran at Cheltenham, where Apache Stronghold (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) and Valseur Lido (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend) were second and third in the JLT; they have met several times this season and on balance of form the Mullins runner probably just has the edge, but the one to beat is Mullins´ other runner Gitane du Berlais (Ruby Walsh), an easy winner over hurdles last time at Auteuil. She is unbeaten over fences- admittedly she has only run twice and in lesser company- but as a 5yo mare receives no less than 15 lbs from all the other runners, so is easily the best in at the weights.

Mullins is also well represented in the other top races, no surprise there.In the mares novice hurdle at 16.20 he has 3 runners, with Ruby riding Petite Parisienne, 5th last time in the Triumph Hurdle. However it could well be that Jessica Harrington has the best Irish hope here with Rock on the Moor (Robbie Power), but we expect this prize to go to England, with Harry Fry saddling two very strong candidates, Bitofapuzzle (Noel Fehily) and Desert Queen (Nick Scholfield). The latter should not be underestimated, having won her last 4 races and is an improving front-runner, but Bitofapuzzle´s Cheltenham form, when she was a very close third, is by far the best in the field and she has to be the selection.

Mullins also has 3 runners in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 16.50, with Ruby on Shaneshill, an excellent second to stable companion Douvan in the Supreme. However Outlander (Paul Townend ) should be sell suited by the ground here, while Prince of Scars (Sandra Hughes/ AP McCoy), one of 3 Gigginstown runners, must also be respected.

Mullins also sends runners to the other Irish Meeting at Cork and can take the main Event there, a Grade Three chase over 3 miles at 17.35, with On His Own (David Casey), a close runner-up in last year´s Gold Cup although well ll breaten at Cheltenham this time. The only serious opponennt in theory is the strong front-runner Roi du Mee (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Condon).

Fairyhouse - betting forecast:
1. Race: Cest Notre Gris - Voices Of Spring - Elusive Ivy
2. Race: Marchese Marconi - Inesperate - Greatness
3. Race: Bitofapuzzle - Rock On The Moor - Petite Parisienne
4. Race: Shaneshill - Outlander - Snow Falcon
5. Race: Gitane Du Berlais - Valseur Lido - Apache Stronghold
6. Race: Mister Hotelier - Benemeade - Ballyadam Approach
7. Race: Castello Sforza - Death Duty - Bel Ami De Sivola

Listed races for fillies and mares

We have two listed races for fillies and mares today, on the all-weather at Kempton over a mile at 15.50 CET and on heavy ground at Cork over 1 1/2 miles at 17.30. The former event should mainly concern Queen Catrine (Charlie Hills/ Andrea Atzeni), who has plenty of form at this level, and Lady Dutch (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley), winner over this CD of her only start this year, while Victoria Regina (David Simcock/ Jim Crowley) is fit from Meydan, where she was twice fourth in strong company. That form should be good enough, but we still prefer Queen Catrine, who is racing for the first time on an artificial surface.

The Irish race can probably be left to the lightly-raced Aga Khan filly Massinga (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) who finished last year with two easy wins and looks well up to this standard. There will also be plenty of interest in the 3yo races at 15.45 and 18.30, in which Aidan O´Brien´s East India and Hans Holbein will probably start favourite; they will be ridden by his son Joseph, his first races on the flat this season and he is apparently riding at a weight that he could not manage last week; we shall see.

There is jumps racing in the U.K. at Haydock, Carlisle and Newton Abbot with no graded races but plenty of highly competitive handicaps, especially at Haydock. Paul Nicholls is usually the trainer to follow on a Saturday and he has good chances with the top-weights in the the two top races, Southfield Vic at 15.35 and Virak at 16.10, both partnered by the good claimer Sean Bowen.

Kempton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Just That Lord - Frank Bridge - Rosealee
2. Race: Mr Bossy Boots - Ninjago - Brigliadoro
3. Race: Lady Dutch - Victoria Regina - Tea Blossom
4. Race: Made With Love - Spiritual Star - Regulation
5. Race: Juventas - Teosroyal - Shagah
6. Race: Azraff - Jolievitesse - Surewecan
7. Race: Lycidas - Taws - Mubaraza

All-Weather Championships at Lingfield

Good Friday always used to be a day of rest for the racing communtity but that has all changed with the introduction of the extremely valuable All-Weather Championships at Lingfield, with 7 strongly contested races over a variety of distances.

The two Godolphin trainers have been in tremendous form so far this year, and while Saeed bin Suroor hit the jackpot with the Dubai World Cup last week, it is Charlie Appleby who has been dominating the British all-weather season. Appleby has fancied runners in 5 of today´s races and can certainly expect to go back home with several winners to his name.

The most valuable race is the Middle Distance Championship at 16.45 with 124,500 GBP to the winner; as these are new races they so far have no black type status, but this will certainly follow and this race is worth much more than most German Group Ones. Tryster (Appleby/ William Buick) is the obvious one here; he has won all 4 starts this year - on 4 different all-weather tracks- and was especially impressive when winning the Winter Derby over this CD last time; Grendisar (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) and Complicit (Paul Cole/ Jim Crowley) were not beaten that far in second and fourth, but there seems no obvious reason why they should be able to reverse the form, and if he gets the run of the race Tryster should win.

The Appleby/ Buick team can also be on the mark with Pretend in the sprint at 15.10, the 3yo sprint at 17.15 with Portamento- despite the fact that he has been off the track for 4 months, usually a disadvantage here - and Anglophile in the Marathon at 17.45, where fellow Godolphin Hidden Gold (bin Suroor/ James Doyle) could be the main danger. The only race in our view where they can be defeated is the 3yo mile at 15.40, in which Emirates Skycargo (Buick) and Four Seasons (Adam Kirby) face strong opposition from Lexington Times (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Tempus Temporis (John Gosden/ Doyle).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fresles - Khatiba - Don`t Be
2. Race: Pretend - Chookie Royale - Alben Star
3. Race: Lexington Times - Tempus Temporis - Emirates Skycargo
4. Race: Sovereign Debt - Mindurownbusiness - Captain Joy
5. Race: Grendisar - Complicit - Solar Deity
6. Race: Portamento - Primrose Valley - Harry Hurricane
7. Race: Anglophile - Hidden Gold - Hurricane Higgins

Ludlow and Taunton

more relatively low level racing today, and also small fields at the two U.K. jumps meetings. AP McCoy continues his farewell tour of British racecourses at Ludlow, where we hope he wins the opener at 15.30 CET on Jim Best´s Slowfoot, a smart performer on the flat in Germany for Markus Klug. McCoy also rode him on his hurdling debut, when we won in good style at Plumpton, and he appears to have only one serious rival today, the Queen´s Jack Frost (Nicky Henderson/ Peter Carberry), who has also useful hurdles form to his credit, including a CD victory with this pilot on board. Henderson should certainly take the mares novice hurdle at 16.30 with Broxbourne (Nico de Boinville), while Paul Nicholls has just one runner here -Wilton Milan (Jack Sherwood) at 17.00, who also has good prospects.

Nicholls and Henderson also have runners at Taunton. and both could have winners here as well. We like Henderson´s Princess Ombu (David Bass) in the mares novice handicap hurdle at 15.50 - she is no star but the opposition looks very weak - while Nicholls should take the opener here at 15.20 with Port Melon, who stands out in this company. An interesting runner in this last event is Low Key (David PIpe/ Kieran Edgar), who was bred by Dr. Christoph Berglar and ran in the colours of Baron Ullmann; although his hurdles form so far is nothing special, this better ground should suit him and he could well run into a place at a decent price.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jack Frost - Blandfords Gunner - Sandygate
2. Race: Loose Chips - Lord Grantham - Drumshambo
3. Race: Triumvirate - Broxbourne - Maetrufel Annie
4. Race: Filbert - It`s A Steal - Uriah Heep
5. Race: Red Inca - Taaresh - Ascendant
6. Race: Domtaline - Rockiteer - Tugboat
7. Race: Clyne - Vaihau - Definite Future

listed race at Dundalk this evening

Ryan Moore certainly gets around. He was in Dubai for the World Cup on Saturday, at the Curragh on Sunday, and was riding work this morning in Newmarket. He is now on his way to Ireland and partners War Envoy for Aidan O´Brien in the listed 3yo race at Dundalk at 20.05 CET this evening. Aidan´s youngest son Donagh rides the other O´Brien runner, the family-owned Song of Love, but it is notable that the eldest son Joseph, nominally the stable´s no. 1 jockey, is not riding and it seems that his weight problems are likely to put an end to his career as a flat jockey -he rode over hurdles last weekend. It looks as if Ryan Moore will be riding more and more for the O´Brien stable, even though he is also still the stable jockey for the powerful Newmarket team of Sir Michael Stoute. War Envoy must have a good chance of winning this early classic Trial, although he does not appear to be one of the stable´s main classic hopes. Most unusually for this outfit, he ran 8 times at two, including in such top races as the Coventry Stakes, Prix Lagardere and Breeders Cup. His main rival this evening is probably the group-placed Rapid Applause (M O´Callaghan/ Declan McDonogh).

The two U.K. all-weather meetings are of little intetrest, except for the 1 mile 5 furlongs handicap at 17.00 at Chelmsford, where 5 of the 7 runners are last-time-out winners. Wakea (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick) an easy Wolverhampton winner, is the likely favourite, but we like Norab (Marco Botti/ Daniel Muscatt), a 3/4 brother to German champion Night Magic. There is alo jumps racing at Towcester and Wincanton with mainly small fields of moderate horses. APMcCoy is at the latter meeting, where his best chances are probably in the two bumpers that conclude proceedings.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Almadaa - Chiclet - Strategic Heights
2. Race: Shinyhappyjohn - Shabra Emperor - Acroleina
3. Race: War Envoy - Rapid Applause - Convergence
4. Race: So Focussed - Nabeel - Torpedo Alley
5. Race: Chatterton - Share A Secret - Basilica
6. Race: Moonmeister - Sparanai - Colla Pier
7. Race: Viaduct Joey - Bomber Jackson - Eloge