Highlight of today´ s 6 cards in the U.K. and Ireland is the listed race for 2yo´s over a mile at 19.40 CET at Salisbury. Only 5 runners, but 4 of them look distinctly promising and could well be disputing group races before long. The Hannon stable has won this 4 times in tjhe last 5 years and Tupi (Richard Hughes) should certainly be involved; he was promoted to second place last time at Deauville on desperate ground and today´s conditions will undoubtedly be better. Winters Moon (Saeed bin Suroor/ Andrea Atzeni), who as the only filly in the field gets 5 lbs from all the others, finished third in a Group Three at Newmarket and that form is also strong. However our choice is Elm Park (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), who win in good style at Newbury last time; he runs here in preference to next week´s Zukunfts-Rennen at Baden-Baden. Balding is having a great run and can also win the 1 1/2 mile handicap for 3yo´s over 1 1/2 miles half an hour later with Der Meister (Oisin Murphy), unbeaten after two wins in more modest company,but probably well up to this grade; His dam Agnetha is German-bred and was once the top-priced lot at Baden-Baden´s yearling sales.
Balding and Probert can earlier be on the mark at Sandown with Man of Harlech in the 3yo mile handicap at 16.35, although this is a very tricky race and several lightly-raced runners can be expected to improve markedly from their present rating. One of the dangers is certainly Basem (Saeed bin Suroor/ Hughes), who is a half-brother to Champion Stakes winner Farhh out of German Group One winner Gonbarda.
There is also low-level racing at Thirsk this afternoon and at Wolverhampton this evening, while they go over jumps at Bangor and in Ireland at Down Royal, where there is an all-hurdles card. There are some very small fields at Bangor, but AP McCoy, currently in unstoppable form, has 5 rides and can be expected to continue his winning run.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lady Crossmar - George Baker - Beep
2. Race: Fast Dancer - Grenade - Ickymasho
3. Race: Stolen Story - Seebeedee - Jersey Belle
4. Race: Winters Moon - Tupi - Elm Park
5. Race: High Church - Der Meister - Cape Caster
6. Race: Taws - Laser Blazer - Cinnilla
Friday, August 29, 2014
listed race this evening
Thursday, August 28, 2014
group race in Ireland this evening
once again Ireland comes to the rescue today with a group race this evening at Tipperary, as the 5 U.K. meetings, 2 of them over jumps, are all very poor and with some small fields as well.
The main event is the Fairy Bridge Stakes for fillies and mares over 7 1 /2 furlongs at 19.30 CET and rather surprisingly Aidan O´Brien has no runner here. Instead it is Dermot Weld who can dominate; he saddles 2 runners, the 4yo Big Break (Liam Roche) and the 3yo Tested, the choice of stable Jockey Pat Smullen. Tested ran a good race last time when runner-up at Galway, but today´s opposition looks stronger and it would be no great surprise to see Big Break, a sister to Famous Name who was second in s similar race over this CD last October, finish in front of her this evening, especially if it rains. Purr Along (Johnny Murtagh/ Jamie Spencer) looks a big danger on her fourth place in a Newmarket Group One last time, while Witches Brew (Eddie Lynam/ Seamie Heffernan), whose trainer is having such a tremendous summer, also comes into the equation.
There could al,so be some Irish-trained winners in the U.K. today, as Pat Shanahan sends 4 runners to the Welsh track Ffos Las and they could all finish in the money. We especially like Prince Jock (Richard Hughes) in the mile handicap at 17.05, as long as he does not "bounce".
Normal each-way bettting is impossible at Fontwell today and punters should probably leave this meeting alone; AP McCoy rode 4 winners at Worcester yesterday and could repeat the feat here, though none of his rides are likely to start at generous odds.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Forebear - Acting Talent - Estrelita
2. Race: Hail The Hero - Dunquin - Zafilani
3. Race: Toscanelli - Fields Of May - Fit For The Job
4. Race: Tested - Big Break - Purr Along
5. Race: Kodiac`s Back - Millington - Succeed And Excel
6. Race: Amazing Star - Aurelia Cotta - Laviniad
7. Race: Red Rocks Point - Nonchalant - Ebasani
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
6 poor meetings today
The weather has finally stabilised and at least we won´t be having many non-runners at today´s 6 meetings. However the quality is poor all over and the races at the 3 afternoon meetings are almost all low grade handicaps. Chinese Jade (Sir Mark Prescott/ Chris Catlin) is the only runner from his powerful stable at Carlisle and the trainer clearly means business in the mile handicap at 17.00 CET; however top-weight Talent Scout (Karen and Gemma Tutty) is a CD specialist, while Lord of the Dance (Michael Mullineaux/ Anna Hesketh), who has been dropped to a very seductive weight, both look dangerous.
At Catterick we like the two top-weights in the class 4 handicaps, Little Shambles (Mark Johnston/ Franny), who is 2/2 over this CD, at 16.40, and Galizzi (Michael Bell/ Kieren Fallon), runner-up at Newmarket last time, at 17.45 The 5 furlongs handicap at 16.50 isd tzhe bnest race at Lingfield; Clearing (Jim Boyle/ Pat Cosgrave) is the likely favourite after making all to win over this CD last time, but we like top-weight Stone of Folca (Jim Best/ George Baker) despite his abysmal form figures, as he has been running in much hotter races.
The fields ae much more competive at Kempton´s evening Meeting andf the miler handicap there at 20.55 is tzhe best trace of the day. Once again the top-weight looks dangerous, Homsge (William Haggas/ Ryan Moore), an easy winner of his only start this year after being gelded during the winter, but we also like consistent Musaddas (Saeed bin Suroor/ Andrea Atzeni), in Godolphin´s second colours, who looks almost certain to be placed again - for the 8th time in 9 career starts.
The card at the Irish meeting at Bellewstown looks no stronger, while there are small fields at the N.H. meeting at Worcester; it looks like another AP McCoy benefit, as the champion has fancied rides in all 7 races.
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Yesterday´ s rain causing problems
The heavy rain that fell at Epsom yesterday is certainly causing problems for today´s card, and although the weather has now improved, there are lots of non-runners on the very soft ground, and very small fields as a result. There are 6 non-runners in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.25 CET, with Hopes ´n´Dreams (Kevin Ryan/ Jimmy Fortune) on top weight. He won 5 races last year, including this one, on all sorts of going; His form this year has ben less good, but the stable is in form and if he is anywhere near his best, he must go close in this company.
The other only racing this afternoon is at Ripon, where they have not had so much rain and consequently there are bigger fields, but there still quite a few non-runners, including 4 in the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.15. We shall take a chance here on Master of Finance (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), who has generally been running in better company- including when third in the Swiss Derby.
There is racing this evening on the new tapte atrack at Wolverhamptpon, over jumps at Sedgefield and a mixed meetimng in Ireland, with 4 flat races followed by 4 over fences at Ballinrobe. Easily the best horse running here is Special Tiara (Henry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) who goes for the 2 mile 1 furlong chase at 19.40. He won the Grade One novice chase at the Aintree Grand National Meeting 17 months ago, and although he has not won since, should certainly account for these opponents.
Monday, August 25, 2014
August Bank Holiday
today is August Bank Holiday in the U.K., which means that there is lots of racing in the afternoon (none in the evening) but mainly at a low level. The only black type race is the listed event for 2yo´s at 17.10 CET, in which all 7 runners have winning form. Richard Fahey and Tony Hamilton won this last year and are now represented by Izzthatright, but both his wins were over 5 furlongs, while Dark Reckoning (Ann Duffield/ Harry Bentley) won over this 6 furlongs last time; however the one to beat is Expensive Lady (Karl Burke/ Ben Curtis) whose third place on an Ascot fillies Group Three is clearly the best form on offer here. The big betting race here is the Ripon Rowels, a mile handicap at 17.45; 10yo Osteopathic Remedy (Michael Dods/ Connor Beasley) is trying to win this for the fifth time, but he has been raised in the weights for winning last time at Thirsk and would in any case prefer much softer ground that he is likely to find here. There are several other CDD specialists in the field, including Bartack, a winner here 9 days ago, but we prefer bottom weight Mujazif (David and Adrian Nicholls), who had finished just behind him at York and is now better off at the weights.
There is also some decent racing at Epsom, where the Amateur Riders Derby at 17.20 is always a popular event, although the horses running would not have reached Tattenham Corner by the time the real Derby would have finished. Nave (David Simcock/ Michael Murphy) goes well here and has already won the Lady Riders equivalent race, but has little in hand of consistent Echo Bravo (Luke Dace/ W Hogg) and Barwick (Lady Herries/ Ross Birkett). The 5 furlongs handicap at 16.10 is a very competitive race, and many of the runners have already met before, including Long Awaited (David Barron/ Ryan Moore)., who won in 2012. We shall take a chance on New Fforest (Andrew Balding/ Oisin Murphy), whose trainer has a good record here and who was not beaten far in the Epsom Dash on Derby Day.
Today is the last day of flat racing at Warwick, which from now on will only be staging jumps racing. However their final card is a pretty dismal effort. The best race by far is the 6 furlongs conditions race at 16.40. Arnold Lane (Mick Channon/ Dam Hitchcott), woinner of the Silberne Peiztsche at Munich last year, has to concede weight all round, and out of form Rex Imperator (William Haggas/ John Fahy) is best in on official ratings; our choice however is Goldream (Robert Cowell/ Richard Kingscote) who is consistent and last time out won the Shergar Cup Dash.
Betting forecast Warwick:
1. Race: Robin Park - Quite Smart - Vixen Hill
2. Race: Our Grey Lady - Debit - So Noble
3. Race: Fever Few - Free Rein - Byron`s Gold
4. Race: Gracie`S Games - Divertimenti - Mrs Warren
5. Race: Goldream - Rex Imperator - Clear Spring
6. Race: Loumarin - Pixeleen - Midnight Destiny
7. Race: Spray Tan - Baby Queen - Spic `N Span
Sunday, August 24, 2014
4 Group races at the Curragh
As is usual on a Sunday, the racing in Ireland is far better than the sport on offer in the U.K. and the premier Irish track at the Curragh has a very strong card today, featuring 4 group races. As is also usual, Aidan O´Brien fields a powerful team and could conceivably win all 4 of them. It is not clear which are his best 2yo´s and main classic prospects for next year, and he probably does not yet know himself, but Gleneagles is clearly very smart and can win the Group Two Futurity Stakes over 7 furlongs at 17.05 CET with son Joseph in the saddle. He has won his last two starts - both on the good to firm going which is also expected today- in good style and holds Convergence (Ger Lyons/ Colin Keane) on his latest form; Jim Bolger´s two runners could therefore be the main dangers,especially Parish Boy (Kevin Manning).
O´Brien also saddles 3 runners in the fillies equivalent race, the Debutante Stakes at 16.30, with Joseph rather surprisingly riding Qualify, winner of a Dundalk maiden only last week. The stable is so successful that anything seems possible, but we will oppose her with Beach Belle (Kevin Prendergast/ Chris Hayes) and Tigrilla (Roger Varian/ Pat Smullen). The latter is the only foreign raider in any of the principel races and was a Deauville winner last time; the trainer clearly means business as he has booked the best (in our opinion) Irish jockey and she is our selection.The O´Brien´s should in any case win the St.Leger Trial at 17.40 with Leading Light, clearly one of the best stayers in Europe, winner of last year´s St. Leger (the real one) and this year of the Gold Cup, in which 8yo Royal Diamond (Johnny Murtagh/ Niall McCullagh) finished well back. Royal Diamond won this last year and the Irish St. Leger itself in 2012, but we cannot see him ever beating Leading Light, who has only been defeated once (in the Arc!) since his debut. He has a 5 lbs penalty here for Ascot, but the only conceivable threat could be the 3yo Streetcar to Stars (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh) in receipt of 17 lbs.
The Royal Whip over 10 furlongs at 15.55 only has 5 runners but looks a fascinating contest, with two erstwhile 2yo champions in the field - Parish Hall (Bolger/ Manning), the 2011 Dewhurst winner, and the O´Brien´s Kingsbarns, winner of the 2012 Racing Post Trophy. For various reasons, neither has fulfilled that early promise, but KIngsbarns remains of great interest and receives weight from his rival today, who however won over this CD nicely a month ago and will be better suited by the ground. Perhaps the lightly- raced and-weighted 3yo Edelmira (Dermot Weld/ Smullen) can beat them both, although she is really bred to stay longer distances and is down in trip here.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Elusive Ice - Local Flier - Greek Canyon
2. Race: Edelmira - Kingsbarns - Parish Hall
3. Race: Beach Belle - Qualify - Tigrilla
4. Race: Gleneagles - Hall Of Fame - Convergence
5. Race: Leading Light - Streetcar To Stars - Royal Diamond
6. Race: Grecian Tiger - John Constable - Carraroe Flyer
7. Race: Adjusted - Chicago Girl - First Sitting
Saturday, August 23, 2014
Rest of today´s racing
Another ridiculous overkill today, with 6 meetings in the U.K. and two in Ireland; quite apart from York, there is a strong card at Newmarket, as well as group races at Goodwood, Windsor and the Curragh. With Deauville added to the mix, this means that there are group races at 5 different W. European tracks today - crazy!
This makes it difficult for trainers and jockeys too, and it is noticeable that champion Richard Hughes and William Buick are both riding at Goodwood rather than at York. Main Event there is the Group Two Celebration Mile at 16.30 CET. Captain Cat (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) was an easy winner of a similar race at Salisbury 9 days ago from Producer (Richard Hannon/ Hughes) and in theory should repeat the dose today, but we shall take a chance on Chil the KIte (Hughie Morrison/ Buick). Buick´s main reason for being here is probably John Gosden´s St.Leger hope Forever Now in the listed race at 17.40, However he faces strong opposition from another Doncaster fancy, Sir Michael Stoute´s Kings Fete (Doyle).
The highest-rated horse running today is Al Kazeem (Charlton/ George Baker) in the Winter Hill Stakes at 19.45 at Windsor. He was Europe´s top performer over middle distances last season, winning 3 summer Group Ones, and was then retired to stud, but proved infertile. Now back in training, he was beaten on his comeback but clearly needed the race and it will be a surprise if he is beaten today. True Story (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) is the obvious one for the forecast.
The top event at the Curragh is the Renaissance Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.10. Russian Soul (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley) won this last year and Maarek (Evanna McCutcheon/ Declan McDonogh) in 2012, but this is a stronger field than last year while Maarek surely wants much softer ground. Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ Joseph O´Brien) is a class act over this trip and can concede weight all round. O´Brien can also take the listed race flor 2yo´s at 17.20 on his father´s The Great War, who runs here in preference to York and faces much weaker opposition than in the Gimcrack.
York Ebor meeting: fourth and final day
the big York meeting concludes today, and despite the fact that there have been 3 Group One races here this Teek, the Ebor Handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 16.50 is the top race of the week. It is Europe´s richest handicap and with 20 runners is fiercely competitive. The lightly-raced 5yo Pallasator (Sir Mark Prescott/ Luke Morris) has been favourite for this ever since betting opened, partly on account of his trainer´s excellent record in big handicaps, but also because of his own smart form. He has gone up 4 lbs for his latest win at Ascot, but that form has worked out extremely well; but he cannot be said to be leniently handicapped and with his outside draw, we would rather leave him alone at a price around 4-1, much too short for a race of this nature. In fact he is held on earlier form by De Rigueur (Marco Botti/ Andrea Atzeni) and he is our main hope here. Lady cecil won this last year and now saddles two libvely candidates, the Monsun colt retirement Plan (Paul Mulrennan), penalised 4 lbs for winning at the Shergar Cup, and Mighty Yar (Frankie Dettori), who Looks very well trazted off bottom weight. He could be the main danger, although it should not be forgotten that Ted Veale (Tony Martin/ Sean Corby), one of two Irish runners, actually started favourite here last year; he won over fences (!) recently at Galway, an unconventional preparation, biut is still a threat.
The best class race at York today is the Group Two Gimcrack Stakes für 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 16.15, and the winning owner has the honour of delivering a speech on the state of the racing industry at the Gimcrack Dinner in the autumn. It could well be an UAE owner, as most of the leading fancies run in Dubai or Qatar colours. Richard Hannon has two possibles here, of which we prefer Royal Ascot winner Baitha Alga (Frankie Dettori). Irish raider Accepted (Tommy Stack/ Wayne Lordan) looks the best of the 3 unbeaten runners, but Muhaarar (Charlie Hills/ Paul Hanagan), whose trainer has had a good week, is another big danger.
Andrea Atzeni is another one on the crest of the wave, and his appointment announced yesterday as first jockey to Qatar Racing as the successor to Jamie Spencer was expected and thoroughly deserved. We think that he could have a highly successful afternoon, as quite apart from the Ebor, he has good chances with Roger Varian´s Farraaj in the Group Three Strensall Stakes at 15.05, with Connecticut, who has top-weight on the Melrose handicap at 15.40 and Ajman Bridge in the 10 furlongs handicap at 18.00, both for Luca Cumani, and also with Richard Hannon´s Cool Strutter in the listed race for 2yo´s at 17.25, even though he is wearing his new employer´s second colours here.
Tipps für die Rennen:
1. Rennen: Farraaj - Graphic - Trade Storm
2. Rennen: Connecticut - Rocket Ship - Uradel
3. Rennen: Baitha Alga - Beacon - Jungle Cat
4. Rennen: Pallasator - Clever Cookie - Mighty Yar
5. Rennen: Showing Character - Mind Of Madness - Al Fareej
6. Rennen: Ajman Bridge - Raskova - Whispering Warrior
7. Rennen: Online Alexander - Full Steam Ahead - Innocently
Friday, August 22, 2014
York Ebor meeting: third day
The Group One Nunthorpe Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.40 CET is today´s main feature at York and it has attracted a really strong field, with fancied candidates from France, Ireland and South Africa taking on the established British sprint stars. Many of these horses have met before, including in this race last year, when Shea Shea (Mike de Kock/ Christophe Soumillon) and Sole Power (Eddie Lynam /Richard Hughes) finished a close second and third. Sole Power, who also won this at 100-1 in 2010 has won the King´s Stand at Royal Ascot twice, this year with Stepper Point (William Muir/ Martin Dwyer) second, Hot Streak (Kevin Ryan/ Jamie Spencer) third, Steps (Roger Varian/ Kieren Fallon) sixth and Take Cover (David Griffiths/ James Doyle) and Shea Shea further back; Shea Shea bled then and can be excused and has for the past 3 years been one of the best horses in the world over this distance, but there has to be a slight question mark now, while Take Cover has shown great improvement since that race and won the big sprint at Glorious Goodwood with Extortionist (Olly Stevens/ Ryan Moore) a neck runner-up, Moviesta (Bryan Smart/ Paul Mulrennan) third, Stepper Point fourth and G Force (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) fifth. Any of these could win today. while two more added to the mix are Cougar Mountain (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) and the French hope Rangali (Henri-Alex Pantall/ Fabrice Veron). O´Brien has already won Group Ones at this meeting; he rarely has runners over sprint distances but Cougar Mountain ran a huge race in the July Cup, leading inside the final furtlong before finishing fifth on only his second career start. However we shall take a chance on Rangali, who looked very fast when defeating the top French specialist Catcall last time at Chantilly.
The main supporting Feature is the Group Two Lonsdale Cup over 2 miles at 15.30, which also has a very strong field, headed by the Queen´s foilly Estimate (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore), winner of the Gold Cip at ASxot last year and narrowly beaten this time., However she ran badly last time in the Goodwood Cup won by Cavalryman (Saeed bin Suroor/ Kieren Fallon); he is now 8 but in the form of his life, while Times Up (Ed Dunlop/ William Buick) is also that age and won this race in 2012.High Jinks (James Fanshawe/ James Doyle) won a listed race in France last time, while the two Irish runners Certerach (Mike Halford/ Jamie Spencer), especially on Dubai form, and Pale Mimosa (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) must also be considered; Pale Mimosa, also a listed winner last time, has been carefully brought along by Weld and she is our selection.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Semeen - Communicator - Proud Chieftain
2. Race: Cavalryman - Estimate - Pale Mimosa
3. Race: Cable Bay - Rerouted - Glory Awaits
4. Race: Sole Power - Take Cover - Hot Streak
5. Race: Acaster Malbis - Swot - Dissolution
6. Race: Munaaser - Lesha - Extremity
Thursday, August 21, 2014
York Ebor meeting: second day
it´s Ladies Day at York today, with 4 of the 6 races restricted to fillies and mares, including the main feature, the Group One Yorkshire Oaks over 1 1/2 miles at 16.40 CET. The last 2 winners of the Oaks at Epsom meet here, but while Talent (Ralph Beckett/ Andrea Atzeni) has not sparkled since her classic victory, Taghrooda (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan) still remains unbeaten after another top grade success at Ascot. She is favourite for the Arc and in theory cannot lose here, as she has about a stone in hand on official ratings. Tapestry (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) and Volume (Luca Cumani/ Richard Hughes) finished 2-3 in the Irish Oaks, but that was a weaker race than the Epsom version, altho´ they could again take the minor places. Joseph definitely cannot do today´s weight, so that fact that he partners his father´s Venus De MIlo should not indicate that she is more highly regarded than Tapestry, and that one looks the filly for the forecast.
The Group Two Lowther Stakes for 2yo fillies over 6 furlongs at 15.340 is the next best race on the card and looks to be between 3 fillies who all ran well at Royal Ascot: the unbeaten Cursory Glance (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni), who won the Albany, and Anthem Alexander (Eddie Lynam/ Pat Smullen) and Tiggy Wiggy (Richard Hannon/ Hughes), first and second in the Queen Mary. The latter is now 3 lbs better off and could reverse the form and has since shown tremendous speed to win the Newbury Super Sprint. However she is so fast over 5 furlongs that there must be a slight doubt about her getting this trip, and this is probably not a race to bet on.
The listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 17.20 is for fillies who are presumably not regarded as good enough to run in the Yorkshire Oaks. The consistent Waila (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore) could take this, although we are worried by Starlet (Dermot Weld/ Smullen), who is moving up sharply in grade but represents a very smart team.
The sales race for 2yo´s which opens the card at 14.55 is actually almost as valuable as the Group One Event and Kool Kompany (Hannon/ Hughes) has clearly the best credentials here, having won a Group Two and finished runner-up in a Group One. Fast Act (Kevin Ryan/ Neil Callan) is the obvious danger.
From the German point of view, Energizer (Charlie Appleby/ Hughes) is one of the most interesting runners of the day. He was a Royal Ascot winner when still running for Schlenderhan in 2012 and was afterwards sold to Godolphin. He missed all of 2013, but is now on a very favourable handicap mark and must have a solid each-way chance in the mile handicap at 16.05.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kool Kompany - Fast Act - Mukhmal
2. Race: Tiggy Wiggy - Anthem Alexander - Cursory Glance
3. Race: Russian Realm - Short Squeeze - Red Avenger
4. Race: Tapestry - Volume - Venus De Milo
5. Race: Waila - Arabian Comet - Momentus
6. Race: Bragging - Sparkle Factor - Wedding Ring
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
York Ebor meeting: first day
the Ebor meeting which starts today at York is probably the second best U.K. fixture of the entire year (after Royal Ascot) and proud Northerners will tell you that it is fact the number one. Certainly today´s card leaves nothing to be desired and features among others the winners of the English, French and Irish Derby.
Star of the show is undoubtedly Australia (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) who will be at odds-on in the Group One International Stakes over 10 furlongs at 16.40 CET. This very well-bred colt out of Oaks winner Ouija Board has always been highly rated and the trainer has said that he is the best he has ever had; high praise indeed, although he has also said this about other runners of his. After a narrow defeat in the 2,000 Guineas (pretty good form in any case) he went on to win the Derby at Epsom and then the Irish version at the Curragh easily enough. Today´s distance is arguably even more suitable and we cannot see him getting beaten. The trainer has warned that he might need the race (he often says that as well) and there is also a slight doubt about Joseph´s being able to do the weight, but we certainly expect him to win. The Grey Gatsby (Kevin Ryan/ Richard Hughes) won the Dante over this CD and then took the French Derby before flopping in the Grand Prix de Paris on very bad ground Conditions will suit him today and he could .prove best of the rest, as Arod (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Jamie Spencer) was fourth in the Derby but unlikely to get any nearer to Australia now. The two older horses Mukhadram (William Haggas/ Paul Hanagan) and Telescope (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) are both very smart and were the placed horses in the King George. Over this trip the first-named, who earlier won the Eclipse, could be the more dangerous, but basically we think that they are all running for the very generous place money.
The Epsom form could in any case have received an earlier boost when Derby runner-up Kingston Hill (Roger Varian/ Ryan Moore) runs in the Great Voltigeur at 16.05, usually the best trial for the St. Leger, He had no chance in the Eclipse, but today´s distance is far more suitable. Hartnell (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), winner of the Queen´s Vase, and Snow Sky (Stoute( James Doyle), who won the Gordon Stakes, are both very promising young stayers who could fight it out for the places, although O´Brien´s two runners Granddukeoftuscany (Joseph) and Indian Maharaja (Seamie Heffernan), both lightly-raced and taking a huge leap in class, could be dangerous.
It could be another big day for the O´Brien stable and we also expect that Jamaica (Joseph) has a good chance in the Group Three Acomb Stakes for 2yp´sover 7 furlongs at 15.30. This looks a very competitive event, but we liked the way Jamaica scored at Galway last time and he looks a colt with a big future.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Robot Boy - Move In Time - Mass Rally
2. Race: Jamaica - Basateen - Growl
3. Race: Kingston Hill - Hartnell - Granddukeoftuscany
4. Race: Telescope - Mukhadram - The Grey Gatsby
5. Race: Itlaaq - Spacious Sky - Bantam
6. Race: Felix Leiter - Mattmu - Burnt Sugar
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
5 more poor meetings today
today´s cards, to be frank, must be rated amongst the worst we have seen so far this year. With the big York Ebor meeting starting tomorrow, this is perhaps not surprising, but there are not many runners either, and races with normal each-way betting are a rarity at the 4 British Meetings.
Trainer Henry Candy and jockey Dane O´Neill are both enjoying a real purple patch at present and they can take the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 19.00 CET at Leicester this evening with consistent Faure Island. The two top-weights Shingle (Ed de Giles/ Oisin Murphy) and Ridge Ranger (Eric Alston/ Jason Hart) were both easy winners of their only start and could be anything, but the handicapper has rated them quite highly for beating modest opposition, and at least Faure Island has shown that he can run well off his rating.
Candy can also win the 3yo handicap at Brighton with Rapunzal (Amy Scott), who has been upped 6 lbs for winning at Lingfield with this young claimer aboard but could be able to defy this higher mark against weak opponents. Quite a few top trainers have runners here, including Hannon, Balding, Charlton et al, but they are basically running horses they know are not capable of winning at the major tracks, so caution is advised. The same is true at the other seaside fixture at Yarmouth, where Noseda, Botti, Ryan etc have runners; Our best bet there is Ziggy´s Secret (Lucy Wadham/ Mikey Ennis) at 17.30.
The fields are larger at the mixed meeting in Ireland, where there are 4 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles at Sligo. Our main fancy here is the Monsun gelding Tawseef (Colin Bowe/ Andrew McNamara) in the maiden hurdle at 20.20.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Whaleweigh Station - Eleusis - Normanna
2. Race: Mimi Luke - Red Cossack - Great Wave
3. Race: Frontline Phantom - Nifty Kier - Mishrif
4. Race: Keep To The Beat - Interconnection - Kinema
5. Race: Alpha Delta Whisky - Autumns Blush - Sleepy Blue Ocean
6. Race: Glanely - Jungle Bay - Ziggy`s Secret
7. Race: Jonnie Skull - Polar Forest - Lewamy
Monday, August 18, 2014
Last chance for Tax Free
Very little about which to get excited in today´s 4 meetings in the U.K. and a mixed meeting in Ireland at Roscommon, with 4 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles. The hurdle race over 2 1/2 miles at 21.10 CET has only 4 runners, but they are all quite useful and we hope to see Waaheb (Dermot Weld/ Mark Walsh) get back on the winning trail after his narrow defeat at Cork last time; Seefood (Dessie Hughes/ Barry Geraghty), a winner over fences 9 days ago, looks the main threat if he also adapts to the smaller obstacles.
In the U.K. there are mainly low grade handicaps, none of them better than class 4.The 5 furlongs handicap at Thirsk at 17.45 looks quite competitive with 15 runners, however most of them find it hard to win. The obvious exception is the 12yo Tax Free (David and Adrian Nicholls), who has clocked up 16 wins in his long career, including some at a much better level; he is expected to be retired after today´s race and obviously everyone would love to see him go out with another victory, but on his latest form this looks unlikely, as his recent runs have all been very poor and the soft ground is also against him. Gowanharry (Michael Dods/ Paul Mulrennan) has not won for over a year, but has been very consistent and looks the most logical winner here.
If there is a decent performer running today. it can only be Godolphin´s lightly-raced History Book (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick) in the fillies handicap which closes Windsor´s evening card at 21.00. She has a lot of weight but is potentially miuch better class than tese opponents, ofwhomlast-tme-out winner Bold Lass (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan) is probably the best.
Sunday, August 17, 2014
Listed race at Pontefract
After yesterday´s huge number of fixtures, we are down today to one flat meeting and one over jumps in the U.K. and ditto for Ireland. The only black type race is the listed event for fillies and mares over 6 furlongs at 16.45 CET at Pontefract. Very few of the 12 runners are up to normal listed standard, most of them being handicappers, but Ladies Are Forever (Geoff Oldroyd/ Danny Tudhope) is a genuine group race performer and won York´s Summer Stakes two starts ago. She is the best runner in the field but has a 7 lbs oenalty for that success, which makes life difficult, and we are not sure if she can concede the weight to Spinatrix (Michael Dods/ Connor Beasley), runner-up yesterday in the big handicap at Ripon, or to Hoodna (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), who ran respectably in the Stewards Cup last time. Online Alexander (Kevin Ryan( Graham Lee) actually won at the Goodwood meeting, but that was in a much lower grade over 5 furlongs. A much more dangerous 3yo on Goodwood form is surely Valonia (Henry Candy/ Harry Bentley); Candy is having a good season and does especially well with sprinters, so we give her the vote.
German-bred Wiesentraum (Lucy Wadham/ Leighton Aspell) is two from two at Southwell and attempts to repeat his 2013 victory in the 2 1/ 2 mile handicap chase at 16.00; he is 5 lbs higher than last year but still has a decent chance. Two other German-breds on the same card are the veterans Schelm (John Quinn/ Oliver Pimlott) at 16.30 and CD specialist Moon Melody (Mike Sowersby/ Brian Hughes) at 18.05. Both are certainly capable of running into the money if in the right mood.
An interesting ex-German runner in Ireland is Coolfighter (N.Dooly/ JL Cullen) in the maiden hurdle at 15.50 at Tramore. He won 5 races in Germany in 2012, but showed very little in Ireland until suddenly he won twice last week at this track - including yesterday- on the flat. If allowed to take his chance today - and assuming he can jump - he must go close in this company, where ex-Fabre Alileo (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend) is the obvious danger.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Grandad`s World - Baron Spikey - Robin Park
2. Race: Alex Vino - Only Orsenfoolsies - Asteroidea
3. Race: Air Squadron - Precision Strike - Beat The Shower
4. Race: Ladies Are Forever - Spinatrix - Hoodna
5. Race: Oxsana - Imshivalla - Flycatcher
6. Race: Hesbaan - Flawless Pink - Tasmanian
7. Race: Poyle Vinnie - Solar Spirit - Le Laitier
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Group races at Newbury
Rracing all over the place today. With 7 meetings this afternoon and two more in the evening, but pride of place clearly goes to Newbury, which stages one of its best cards of the year. Main feature is the Group Two Hungerford Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.50 CET and even with only 6 runners, this looks tricky. Richard Hannon trains two of them, Producer (James Doyle), runner-up in a Group Three at Salisbury only on Thursday, and Professor (Richard Hughes), who looks his main hope but is up in grade. Gregorian (John Gosden/ William Buick) is top-rated, but also ran just a few days ago, when unplaced at Deauville on Sunday. With doubts over these, we prefer Breton Rock (David Simcock/ Martin Lane), running over his ideal distance and who will like the ground, and Chil the Kite (Hughie Morrison/ George Baker), a top handicapper well worth a try at this level.
There could well be a German winner in the Group Three Geoffrey Freer Stakes over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 15.40, as Girolamo (Peter Schiergen/ Adrie de Vries) has in our opinion a good chance. We must not forget that he was a close third to Pastrorius and Novellist in the German Derby two years ago and a repetition of that form would certainly be good enough here. He will like the soft ground (drying out now as the weather has improved) and this distance is also fine. Red Cadeaux (Ed Dunlop/ Gerald Mossé) is the best horse in the field, but although he has had a break, his last 4 races have been in Australia (runner-up in the Melbourne Cup), Hong Kong, Dubai and Japan, and one has to wonder when all this travelling will begin to take its toll. Ex-German Seismos (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) is also to be aimed at the Melbourne Cup, and as he beat Girolamo last year in Munich, he must also be considered. Somewhat (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) is the only 3yo in the field and has run two good races in the Eclipse and then the Gordon Stakes, while Willing Foe (Saeed bin Suroor/ James Doyle) is potentially smart but has not run for 15 months. Pether Moon (Hannon/ Hughes) is consistent enough in this grade, but is penalised as the only runner who has actually won a group race this year, which makes things difficult.
The rest of the day´s racing centres on handicaps, the best of which is the Great St. Wilfred over 6 furlongs at Ripon at 16.30. With 19 runners this is a lottery, but our two against the field are CD specialist Spinatrix (Michael Dods/ Connor Beasley), runner-up last year, and bottom-weight Tatlisu, one of 4 runners for Richard Fahey, who has booked top Irish jockey Declan McDonogh.
The 6 furlongs handicap for grey horses at 15.20 at Newmarket is a popular event, and the field includes the last two winners and several others who have run well in this before. We shall take a chance on Rylee Mooch (Richard Guest/ Philip Prince), who has run in this race 3 times already and now seems very well handicapped. The more normal 6 furlongs handicap 35 miniutes later can go to Piazon (Michael Bell/ Louis Steward) who will appreciate the return to softer ground.
Friday, August 15, 2014
listed race at Newbury
there has been a lot of rain in many parts of the U.K. this week, and the going today at Newbury and Newmarket will be much softer than forecast, while Nottingham seems to have missed all the bad weather and the going there is good to firm. As a result there are many non-runners and punters are advised to check before placing their bets.
Top race in the U.K. today is the listed race for 2yo fillies over 5 furlongs at 16.55 CET at Newbury. All 10 runners ae winner, 5 of them last time out, and as they have rarely encountered (if at all) going as soft as it is now, it is difficult to make a choice, but obviousl,y the 3 fillies trained by Richard Hannon must be on the short list - Dangerous Moonlight (Richard Hughes), Parsley (Pat Dobbs) and Spirit of Xian (Sean Levey), with Hughes probably on the best chance. With the Godolphin stables now going well, Blue Aegean (Charlie Appleby/ Silvestre de Sousa) could be the main danger.
Andrea Atzeni´s mount in that race is a non-runner. but he can take the day´s best handicap on Charlie Fellowes´ Epsom Hill at 16.20. The only 3yo in the field, he won so easily at Thirsk a fortnight ago that he should certainly be able to cope with today´s slightly longer distance (1 mile 5 furlongs) and stronger opposition, and he is also sure to act on the ground.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Elm Park - Proposed - Pensax Boy
2. Race: Langavat - Azrur - Hagree
3. Race: Epsom Hill - Novirak - Manomine
4. Race: Dangerous Moonlite - Parsley - Rosie`s Premiere
5. Race: Katawi - Drive On - Classic Pursuit
6. Race: Blue Waltz - Seldom Seen - Taweyla
7. Race: Wordismybond - Gracious George - Celestial Bay
Thursday, August 14, 2014
group races at Salisbury this afternoon and at Leopardstown this evening
two Group races today, at Salisbury at 17.00 CET and at Leopardstown at 21.15, that is the good news for a Thursday - the bad news is that they are almost identical races, being both Group Threes for 3yo´s an up over one mile, another ridiculous clash.
At Salisbury the three 3yo´s in the field seem to have good prospects, especially Yuften (William Haggas/ Andrea Atzeni) who has run really well on both his last starts in Group One company. The dangers are probably Richatd Hannon´ s two runners., Anjaal (Dane O´Neill), another 3yo, and the 5yo Producer (Richard Hughes), who has also been running respectably in miuch better events. The third 3yo Master Carpenter (Rod Millman/ Rab Havlin) is also not out of it, but is penalised for having won a Group race already this season. An interesting alternative is Genius Boy (James Tate/ Graham Lee) who has won his last 4 races, 3 of them in low grade events at Yarmouth, a track not noted for high quality performers. However he has improved so much that a good run in this much better race is by no means out of the question.
In ireland, the two 3yo´s in the field are both trained by Aidan O´Brien - Great White Eagle (Joseph) and Palace (Seamus Heffernan). While O´Brien´s record is these races is quite amazing, these two do not appear to be among the stable´s top stars and both ran badly (in smart company) last time. Ww like the older horses in this this field, especially the two 5yo´s Brandan Bracken (Ger Lyons/ Colin Keane) and Custom Cut (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), the only foreign raider, as well as the 6yo Ansgar (Sabrina Harty/ Pat Smullen). The first-named seems much improved and after two good races here was a very easy winner of a listed race at Cork last week.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: She`s A Pistol - Puck Fair - Rivers Of Babylon
2. Race: Invincible Ridge - Big Bad Lily - Texas Rock
3. Race: Supposing - Peony Fairy - Eriniya
4. Race: Order Of St George - Prologue - Ring Presence
5. Race: Brendan Brackan - Ansgar - Custom Cut
6. Race: Massinga - Sea Coast - Irish Reel
7. Race: Solar Focus - Equation Of Time - Sweet Cherry
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
listed races at Salisbury and Gowran
two listed races today, in Salisbury this afternoon at 16.55 CET and this evening in Ireland at 19.30 at Gowran Park. In a typically absurd clash, they are almost identical races, being both for fillies and mares and over almost the same distance, 10 furlongs in England and 9 1/2 in Ireland. But the racecourses know very well that they can usually fill listed races for fillies in search of black type, and both these races have large fields and look very competitive.
In Salisbury, exactly half the 14 runners are 3yo´s and this age group has generally dominated here. This could happen again, as this group includes the unbeaten My Spirit (William Haggas/ Ryan Moore), as well as hat-trick-seeking Kleo (Luca Cumani/ Silvestre de Sousa). Both are up in grade here, but they all look to be on a steep upwards curve and should be well up to it. The two Godolphin four-year-olds Albasharah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Kieren Fallon) and the unbeaten Tearless (Charlie Aüpleby/ Adam Kirby) could be the best of the older fillies; the former has not run for a year - and blotted her copybook then by refusing to race- but has plenty of Talent and has been well backed today - so much so that she may well start favourite. Princess Loulou (Roger Varian/ James Doyle) has a chance at her best but needs softer going, while the very consistent Ribbons (James Fanshawe/ Hayley Turner) cannot be ignored; Top-rated 3yo is actually Lustrous (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who ran in the top fillies races at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood, but was well beaten. However her earlier form also gives her prospects in what looks to be a very open affair.
The situation is a bit different in Ireland, where 5 older fillies are opposed by 10 3y´s, 5 of whom are trained by Aidan O´Brien. His top-rated runner is Beyond Brilliance, ridden by his daughter Anastasia, but that rating is due to her fourth place in the Irish Oaks, which we feel has been over-estimated; she looks well held on the rest of her form, and she is also running for the 13th time this year, which we feel is a bit much. We expect Shell House (Seamus Heffernan) to prove best of the O´Brien quintet, but Dermot Weld´ s 2 runners are dangerous, especially Carla Bianca, the choice of stable jockey Pat Smullen, However the best 3yo in the field is surely Lahinch Classics (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), whoi has some very good form to her credit and was only just beaten last time by Mango Diva (last year´s Salisbury winner but much improved since) in a Group Two. That form makes her the clear form choice here. Alive Alive Oh (Tommy Stack/ Fran Berry) is best of the older runners, but would prefer much softer going.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Desert Force - Harlequin Striker - Lysander The Greek
2. Race: Darshini - When Will It End - Grigolo
3. Race: Tercel - Potentate - Jailawi
4. Race: Albasharah - My Spirit - Ribbons
5. Race: Petticoat Lane - Sealed With A Kiss - Canova
6. Race: Just Isla - Go For Broke - Fair Ranger
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
4 poor meetings today
back now but with only very poor sport on offer. The best card is this evening at Nottingham, where there are some quite decent performers entered in the 5 furlongs conditions race at 20.25 CET. Green Door (Olly Stevens/ Jamie Spencer) has the best form and won a group race over this trip last year., but he has a huge weight as a result and we cannot see him giving 11 lbs to another 3yo Strategical (Charlie Appleby/ Silvestre de Sousa), especially with the Godolphin runners now in good form. Sprint specialist Robert Cowell has 3 in this race and possibly Graphic Guest (Adam Beschizza) will prove the best of them at these weights, and he ran very well over this CD in the spring on soft ground. Half an hour earlier the 1 3/4 mile handicap is of interest and the 3 lightly-weighted 3yo´s could be decisive here. Late Shipment (Mark Johnston/ Jim Crowley) is exposed, but like his stable´s runners keeps on improving and may be good enough, with Dino Mate (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Shane Kelly), running for only the third time, the obvious danger.
At Lingfield this evening the 6 furlongs handicap at 19.35 looks competitive. We don´t like the name (or rather the man with this name) but we must give another chance to all-weather specialist Putin (Phil McEntee/ Danny Brock) who is returning to the track where he runs his best races.
This afternoon´s racing at Ffos Las and Carlisle is very poor. There could be a German-bred double at the Welsh track with Prairie Rose (Olly Stevens/ Richard Hughes) returning to a mile at 17.05 and Eye of the Tiger (Johnny Murtagh/ R Coakley) at 18.15. The latter has not run for 7 months, but is very well handicapped on his old German form (a group winner in the Ullmann colours!) and one assumes he is not coming over from Ireland just to enjoy the Welsh air.
Betting forecast Nottingham:
1. Race: Felix Leiter - Secret Spirit - Anastazia
2. Race: Enlace - George Dryden - Al Gomry
3. Race: Borough Boy - Kiss From A Rose - Masked Dance
4. Race: Dino Mite - Late Shipment - Deficit
5. Race: Strategical - Green Door - Graphic Guest
6. Race: By Rights - Two Turtle Doves - Sir Geoffrey
7. Race: Appyjack - Lil Sophella - Pink Lips
Saturday, August 09, 2014
Off for the weekend
This column is now off for the weekend and will be back on Tuesday. We wish all our readers Happy Punting and we especially wish Steffi Hofer and Adrie de Vries a successful afternoon at the Shergar Cup.
Friday, August 08, 2014
listed races this in Ireland evening
once again the best racing today comes this evening from Ireland where there are two listed races at Tipperary. The 5 furlongs race at 19.05 CET was won last year by Russian Soul (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley) and he can land the double despite a 5 lbs penalty. Abstraction (Mrs Dawson/ Seamus Heffernan) was third last year and could be placed again, but a greater danger is probably Jamesie (David Marnane/ Colm O´Donoghue) who is very consistent and meets Russian Soul on better terms than when beaten by him at Meydan in the winter. The listed race for 2yo´s over 7 1/2 furlongs at 20.05 looks a bit trickier, as Aidan O´Brien saddles the well-bred East India (Joseph), who was a neck winner of a Curragh maiden on his debut a month ago. In theory this form should not be good enough, but the stable´s 2yo´s usually run much better second time out and the trainer should know where he stands with Tombelaine (Dermot Weld( Liam Roche) and Convergence (Ger Lyons/ Colin Keane), who were a close second and third (in a 3 horse race!) behind O´m Brien´s Gleaneagles in a Leopardstown Group Three last time.
The 5 U.K. meetings do not really quicken the blood, with nothing better than class 3 handicaps - and usually much lower grade, and some small fields as well. Mark Johnston has his string in great form and as he always like to win his native Scotland, he can land a double at Musselburgh with King of Macedon at 16.30 and Alex My Boy half an hour later, both partnered by Joe Fanning. There are only 5 runners in the fillies handicap at 20.50 this evening at Newmarket, but 4 of them are last-time-out winners and they all represent top stables. With John Gosden and William Buick doing so well at present, perhaps Water Hole is the most likely winner.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Simply A Star - Folk Law - Spirit Of Wedza
2. Race: Russian Soul - Sir Maximilian - Abstraction
3. Race: Tylery Wonder - Lady Mega - Shipyard
4. Race: Tombelaine - East India - Convergence
5. Race: Looper - Along The Shore - Cruidin
6. Race: Millington - Right First - Anner Queen
7. Race: Lilly The Lioness - Easter Spirit - Moreece
Thursday, August 07, 2014
group race at Leopardstown this evening
there are no fewer than 8 meetings today and once again Ireland marches to the rescue with a group race this evening at Leopardstown. This is the Ballyroan Stakes over 1 1/2 miles at 20.30 CET and even with only 5 runners this looks quite open. We fancy the 2 3yo´s here, especially the filly Roheryn (Ger Lyons/ Colin Keane), in receipt of a stone from the older horses and a late withdrawal from a race at Cork on Tuesday. Streetcar to Stars (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh) is taking a leap in class here, but is a well-bred son of Sea The Stars and so not out of it. Chance to Dance (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) could be the best of the older horses, but is unproven at this trip. The other two are trained by Aidan O´Brien who has put his son Joseph on Eye of the Storm and his daughter Anastasia on El Salvador. O´Brien certainly believes in supporting his children, as El Salvador has been ridden by four of them already this year; he is consistent enough, but this trip is probably his minimum. Another O´Brien daughter Sarah rides A Greater Force in the QR race at 21.10, but may be upstaged by another father-daughter partnership, Ted and Katie Walsh´s King Schultz.
The U.K. cards are dominated again by handicaps, and once again the best race today comes from Brighton. The Chalenge Cup over 1 1/2 mles at 16,50 is the most valuable race by far and Looks very competitive. Mark Johnston´s Notarised (Silvestre de Sousa), the only 3yo in the field, was beaten a neck at Chrester last Saturday and may go one better here under bottom weight.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Vert De Grece - Hail The Hero - Curvy
2. Race: Illusive - Rightway - Lucent Dream
3. Race: Mr Snagsby - California Rose - Hoppsan
4. Race: Texas Rock - Dark Alliance - Bobby`s Heart
5. Race: Chance To Dance - Eye Of The Storm - Streetcar To Stars
6. Race: Stocktons Wing - Cassells Rock - Wandering Star
7. Race: A Greater Force - Cailini Alainn - Thunder Zone
Wednesday, August 06, 2014
only handicaps today
six meetings today, but the main events at all six are handicaps. Even at this evening´s Irish meeting at Sligo, the top races come into that category despite the grand race titles. The Connacht Oaks at 21.00 CET is at least a fillies race but a handicap over 1 1/2 miles in which older ares can also run. Exotic (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) has top weight here, but her recent performances are nothing special and we prefer the only 3yo in the field, the Aga Khan´s Rayna (John Oxx/ Gary Halpin), who has won her last 3 races and receives 15 lbs plus her good young rider´s claim.
The Connacht Derby an hour earlier is over 10 furlongs and the 3yo´s Fiscan Focus (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) and Spring Focus (Andy Oliver/ CP Hogan) look dangerous, but here we go for the lightly-raced 4yo Jayed Jidan (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), who has won 3 of his 6 starts and is up in trip here. Weld can also win the apprentice handicap at 20.30 with Marty´s Magic (Liam Roche), who was runner-up over hurdles at Galway last week.
In the U.K. the two Newmarket-trained 3yo´s Hidden Gold (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Rocket Ship (Sir Michael Stoute/ Joe Fanning) - both very well bred and also last-time-out winners, cam dominate the 1 1/2 mile handicap at Pontefract at 16.40. The mile handicap at Brighton at 16.50 is actually lower grade but is the most valuable race of the day in the U.K. It is a long way from North Yorkshire to the South Coast, but Mark Johnston has won this race 3 times in the last 6 years and had another good chance with Skytrain (Mike Murphy) who ran really well in a stronger race at Goodwood last week.
Betting forecast Brighton:
1. Race: L`etacq - River Spirit - Amber Crystal
2. Race: Beauchamp Ace - Grand Spirit - Natural Charm
3. Race: Royal Trooper - Unidexter - Sexy Secret
4. Race: Mime Dance - Secular Society - Scottish Glen
5. Race: Meeting Waters - Khatiba - Serenity Spa
6. Race: Polydamos - Sir Tyto - Up Hill Battle`s
7. Race: Forest Glen - Go Charlie - Lunarian
Tuesday, August 05, 2014
group race at Cork this evening
not for the first time, the best racing today comes an Irish evening meeting - at Cork, where the Group Three Give Thanks Stakes for fillies and mares over 1 1/2 miles at 20.55 CET is the main event. This looks very competitive with all the top Irish stables represented and Aidan O´Brien has no fewer than 4 of the 13 runners, with his best chance probably Beyond Brilliance in the family colours and ridden by daughter Anastasia. She was fourth last time in the Irish Oaks, also ridden by Ana, and that form is certainly the best in today´s field. Shell House (Seamus Heffernan), up in grade, could be the best of the Coolmore runners from the O´Brien stable. The Aga Khan also wants to win this race and three entries, Tarana (Declan McDonough)- who looks the best of the 4 older fillies in the field- and Tarziyna (Niall McCullagh), both trained by John Oxx, as well as Edelmira (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen). The last-named is however held by Circling (David Wachman/ Conor KIng) from their form in the Munster Oaks over this CD. Roheryn (Ger Lyons/ Colin Keane) also looks dangerous, but we hope to see Ana win her first group race here and justify her father´s faith in his 17-year-old younger daughter..
The listed race over a mile at 19.55 here has also attracted a decent field. Brendan Bracken (Ger Lyons/ Keane) is just top-rated, but we expect one of the 3yo´s to score here, with Flying Jib (Weld/ Smullen) just given preference over O´Brien´s Michaelmas, this time with his son Joseph on board. Flying Jib was well beaten last time in the Belmont Oaks in New York but had won her three previous races and looks better class than most of these.
The 4 U.K. meetings - Catterick and Ffos Las in the afternoon, and Kempton )(a.w.) and Ripon in the evening are of relativelylittle interest, but we hope to see Local Hero (Steve Gollings/ Mikey Ennis) run a good race in the 1 3/4 mile handicap at 16.15. It has been expensive to follow this German-bred, a full brother to classic winner Liquido, who is also a smart hurdler; but his last win over sticks was 2 years ago, and his only win on the flat almost 4 years ago. This looks quite a tricky race, but he is now well handicapped and has a very competent claimer in the saddle.
There is also Irish N.H. racing this evening at Roscommon, where our best bet is Molly Connors (Henry de Bromhead/ Davy Russell) in the maiden hurdle at 19.05; she has run well on all her starts and looks certain to win soon, possibly today.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: General Marshall - I Will Excel - Blackbriar
2. Race: Full Steam Ahead - Forebear - Belts And Braces
3. Race: Insearchofadream - Apache Gold - Little Sweetheart
4. Race: Flying Jib - Michaelmas - Brendan Brackan
5. Race: Antique Platinum - Calorie - Sea Coast
6. Race: Tarana - Beyond Brilliance - Circling
7. Race: Aussie Guest - Shutter Island - Calle Aneto
Monday, August 04, 2014
lady riders in action at Carlisle
low level action at today´s six meetings, two of them in Ireland - flat racing at Naas and an all-hurdles card at Cork. In the U.K. we have Ripon and Kempton (a.w.) this afternoon , and Windsor and Carlisle this evening.
The "best" race is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.30 CET at Ripon, which looks quite competitive. Another Wise Kid (Paul Midgley/ Graham Lee) and My Name is Rio (Michael Dods/ Paul Mulrennan)) have been in good form this season, but are up in the weights as a result while Waffle (David Barron/Phillip Makin) has been given a chance by the handicapper and is now very leniently rated when compared to his smart form of 2012. However the selection has to be Out Do (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), who does not win very often but has been running well in much better company.
At Kempton we give German-bred Nova Princesse (Marco Botti/ Luke Morris) an each-way chance in the fillies handicap at 18.15, and another German-bred who could run into a place at a big price is Annakrista (Mervyn Torrens/ Mark Darcy) in the handicap hurdle at 16.50 at Cork.
This evening´s card at Carlisle is of interest, as all 7 races are restricted to Lady Jockeys; the first race is a Fegentri race, in which German representative Michelle Blumenauer has a chance on top weight Remix (Ian Williams), while the other 6 races are for professionals and amateurs. We think this is a great idea, but as so often the races themselves are very weak, and the ladies surely deserve being given some decent horses to ride. The only event better than class 5 is the class 4 handicap over a mile at 21.15, which might be won by Hayley Turner on Michael Herrington´s Kuwait Star, who has won his last 2 races including this CD and is up in grade now.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Diddy Eric - Spokesperson - Midnight Warrior
2. Race: Rasselas - Licence To Till - Well Painted
3. Race: Pull The Pin - Chloe`s Dream - Rock Canyon
4. Race: Mambo Spirit - Bajan Bear - Klynch
5. Race: Jan Smuts - A Southside Boy - Scribe
6. Race: Kuwait Star - Talent Scout - Jubilee Brig
7. Race: Giovanni Jack - Latin Rebel - Freddy Q
Sunday, August 03, 2014
listed races at Newbury and Chester
black type races at both British flat meetings today. At Newbury it is a 1 1/2 mile race for fillies and mares at 16.50 CET with in-form Luca Cumani saddling two runners, top-rated Khioni (Adam Kirby) and Silk Sari (Andrea Atzeni - 4 winners yesterday!). However we prefer the lightly-raced 3yo Wonderstruck (William Haggas/ William Buick) from another team in tremendous form; she can continue the good run oif Sea the Stars´ first crop 3yo´s.
Haggas also has a good chance in the listed 6 furlongs race at 16.05 at Chester with Ertijaal (Paul Mulrennan), but he is down in distance, not always a good idea at this sharp track. We prefer Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/ Ben Curtis) who has a penalty but is running over his ideal distance.
The week-long Galway Festival ends today with some huge fields. The first 4 races are over jumps, the last 3 on the flat. Tony Martin is in good form and in theory his smart hurdler Ted Veale (Barry Geraghty) should take the beginners chase at 16.20; but he appears not to like the larger obstacles and we would rather leave this race alone. Dermot Weld has had another good week, although perhaps not quite as dominant as in some previous years, but he can go out with a winner when Windsor Park (Robbie McNamara) runs in the final bumper at 19.00.
Betting forecas at Newburyt:
1. Race: Raamz - Angus Glens - Frosty Berry
2. Race: Chevallier - Finton Friend - Imperial Link
3. Race: Power Play - Buckleberry - Outback Ruler
4. Race: Wonderstruck - Silk Sari - Quiz Mistress
5. Race: Exceptionelle - Secret Missile - Dangerous Age
6. Race: Thatchereen - Cincinnati Girl - Cape Mystery
7. Race: Shades Of Grey - Westerly - Highlife Dancer
Saturday, August 02, 2014
Glorious Goodwood: fifth and final day
Glorious Goodwood ends today with the Group One Nassau Stakes for fillies and mares over 10 furlongs at 16.15 CET the main event. To be honest, this looks a slightly substandard field, but the 7 runners include a fancied candidate from France and Ireland. The former is the Aga Khan´s Narniyn (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Christophe Soumillon) while the latter is Venus de Milo (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), but while respecting their claims we do not really fancy either - in our opinion the French filly needs some rain and the Irish filly a longer distance. John Gosden has won the last 2 runnings, and now has 2 runners, the 4yo Sultanina (William Buick) and the 3yo Eastern Belle (Jimmy Fortune). The former is very lightly-raced and seems worth a try in this grade. However our main hope is Mango Diva (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who loves firm ground and could be good enough.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Stepping Out - Tatlisu - Daylight
2. Race: Kings Fete - Second Step - Rainbow Rock
3. Race: Venus De Milo - Narniyn - Mango Diva
4. Race: Muthmir - Intrinsic - Discussiontofollow
5. Race: Lethal Legacy - Dutch Connection - Rotherwick
6. Race: When Will It End - Muqaawel - Guiding Light
7. Race: War Spirit - Money Team - Peterkin
Friday, August 01, 2014
Glorious Goodwood: fourth day
another great day´s racing at Glorious Goodwood with 4 Group races on the card, plus the week´s hottest mile handicap. Thi is the Betfred Mile at 16.05 CET which is, as expected, wide open. Mark Johnston has a great record here and is having another good week, but we would still be surprised if Heavy Metal (Joe Fanning) manages to repeat his Ascot win last Saturday over 7 furlongs, with Belgian Bill (George Baker twice!) and Bronze Angel (Marcus Tregoning/ Martin Dwyer) are among those reopposing oin 3 lbs better terms. Velox (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) and the only 3yo in the field Our Channel (William Haggas/ Silvestre de Sousa) could be of more interest this time.
The Group Two King George Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.40 looks as tricky as any handicap. Moviesta (Bryan Smart/ Paul Mulrennan) won last year and must go on the short list again, but we prefer Extortionist (Olly Stevens/ Ryan Moore), who beat several of these at Sandown last time and seems to be a sprinter going ploaces. The trainer could have a good day as Lightning Thunder (Harry Bentley) has an obvious chance in the Group Three Thoroughbred Stakes over a mile at 15.20; the only filly in the field, she was runner-up in both the English and Irish 1,000 Guineas. The danger is Shifting Power (Richard Hannon/ Hughes), whp ran well in both colts´ Guineas and was runner-up last time in the Prix Jean Prat. The Hannon/ Hughes team was in good form yesterday and they might also win the opening race, the Group Three Glorious Stakes over 1 1/2 miles, with the consistent Pether´s Moon; however the interesting one here is Encke (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick), who has not run since beating Camelot in the 2012 St. Leger. He was one of the Godolphin runners found to have been given steroids by their since disgraced trainer and has not run since, but in anywhere that form must go close here. Finally we fancy Queen Catrine (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) can reverse Royal Ascot form with the unbeaten Muteela (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) on 7 lbs better terms in the Oak Tree Stakes for fillies and mares at 17.50. Evita Peron (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) also has a chance here, but we are not sure that she like the firm ground.
The Galway Festival goes into its fifth day with mainly handicaps on the card The Guinness handicap over 11/2 miles at 19.50 is the best race here..Panama Hat (Andy Oliver/ Chris Hayes) is tremendously improved and has won his last 4 races; he has gone up a massive 36 lbs for his pains, but may still have more improvement to come. Dark Crusader (Tony Martin/ Fran Berry), whose trainer is in great form and who won at the meeting last year, is just one of many dangers.
Betting forecast:
1. Race: Pether`s Moon - Encke - Quest For Peace
2. Race: Shifting Power - Bow Creek - Rapprochement
3. Race: Velox - Captain Cat - Belgian Bill
4. Race: Extortionist - G Force - Stepper Point
5. Race: Vimy Ridge - Sunset Sail - Red Icon
6. Race: Muteela - Queen Catrine - Manderley
7. Race: Festival Theatre - Artful Rogue - Rydan