Thursday, July 31, 2014

Galway Festival: fourth today

it´s an early start at Galway today with the first race at 14.50 CET. Main feature is the Galway Hurdle over 2 miles at 17.55; this handicap is worth 150,000 euros to the winner and is fiercely competitive, with 6 runners from the U.K., including 4 trained by John Ferguson. Purple Bay could be the best of them after the impressive way he scored at Market rRasen, but he has a huge weight - slightly reduced by his excellent claimer Shane Shortall. JPMcManus also wants to win this and has 3 runners, with Tony McCoy on the warm favourite , Tony Martin´s Thomas Edison. The Gigginstown main hope is Thje Game Changer (Charlie Swan/ KC Sexton) but we shall stick to the tried and true at this meeting, Detmot Weld, whose runner Hissabaat (JJ Burke) was 5th in this last year and has been carefully campaigned since.
Weld, who has already had 5 winners at the meeting, could bring off the unusual feat today of winning over hurdles, over fences (Tylers Cottage with Paul Townend) in the opener, and also the top race on the flat, the listed race for fillies at 16.40 with Tested (Pat Smullen). Her only defeat so far came in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and she looks potentially different class to these opponents. Sparrow (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan) is very well-bred but has been a big disappointment so far, so the consistent Tobann (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) can follow her home.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Elegant Statesman - Jarob - Our Man Zebo
2. Race: Alelchi Inois - Starkie - Back To Balloo
3. Race: Castle Bar Sling - Laviniad - Sretaw
4. Race: Tested - Slipper Orchid - Ballybacka Queen
5. Race: Pink Hat - Desertmore Stream - Icy Reply
6. Race: Thomas Edison - Bayan - Plinth
7. Race: Pirate Cove - Blue Ridge Lane - Ridestan
8. Race: Blue Owen - Notorious Villain - Jamesmicheal

Glorious Goodwood: third day

Glorious Goodwood continues with another strong card and once again we are hoping for a German victory. Amarillo was a bit of a disappointment on Tuesday, but we are hoping for better luck with the same owner´s, trainer´s and jockeys´s Nymphea (Peter Schiergen/ Adrie de Vries) in the Group Three Lily Langtry Stakes for fillies and mares over 1 3/4 miles at 16.45 CET. Nymphea is trying this trip for the first time, but we expect no problems in this respect. It is however a very strong field for a Group Three, headed by the tough Irish mare Missunited (Michael Winters/ Jim Crowley), a close third in the Gold Cup at Ascot last time, and Talent (Ralph Beckett/ Richard Hughes), who won the Oaks and was runner-up in the St. Leger last year. However if Nymphea is in the same mood as at Hoppegarten last year and gets an easy lead, she will take all the catching. Another familiar face here is Baroness Daniela (Henri-Alex Pantall/ James Doyle), who won at Hamburg last time.
Main event today is the Group Two Goodwood Cup over 2 miles at 16.10. Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard KIngscote) won this last year from Ahzeemah (Saeed bin Suroor/ Harry Bentley) with Cavalryman (bin Suroor/ Kieren Fallon) only sixth, but the last-named is in good form this season and could come out best of these on the prevailing fast ground. However the one to beat is surely the Queen´s filly Estimate (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), winner of the Gold Cup last year and a close second this time (altho´´lilkely to be disqualified because of the poppy seeds in her diet!). Although she is a daughter of Monsun, she seems to go best on fast ground.
The Richmond Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 15.35 is another Group Two. Surprisingly Richard Hannon, whose father always did so well at this meeting, has not yet won a race here this week, but he can take this with Ivawood (Richard Hughes) who looks one of the best juveniles seen out this season. Moonraker (Mick Channon/ Ryan Moore), winner at Ascot in May on his only start, looks the main danger. The Hannon/ Hughes team can also take the 2yo maiden at 17.20 with Shagar; Thunder inmy Heart (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer), also a runner-up in a strong Newmarket maiden last time, is an obvious threat.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Roseburg - Arable - Astronereus
2. Race: Jungle Cat - Moonraker - Fox Trotter
3. Race: Estimate - Brown Panther - Cavalryman
4. Race: Missunited - Talent - Waila

5. Race: Thunder In Myheart - Shagah - Hoorayforhollywood
6. Race: Championship - Royal Seal - Nakuti
7. Race: George Cinq - Corton Lad - Las Verglas Star

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Galway Festival: third day

The Galway card today is in the afternoon and jumps racing takes centre stage. The first 3 races are over hurdles, while the main event is the Galway Plate, a valuable handicap chase over 2 3/4 miles at 18.30 CET. This is always one of the most fiercely contested races of the year and with 22 runners looks wide open. Leading owner JP McManus always launches a major challenge here and has no fewer than 7 runners (plus one reserve). His main jocley AP McCoy rides Tom Mullins´Alderwood and he will probably start favourite. But we also like Quantitiveeasing (Enda Bolger/ Barry Geraghty), who was runner-up last year, while our Irish colleague advises Road to Riches (Noel Meade/ SA Shortall), who runs in colours of McManus´ great rival Gigginstown Stud (Michael O´Leary).
Dermot Weld could be in for another good day. He can take the opening maiden hurdle with Tandem /Robbie McNamara) and on the flat he has good chances with Moonbi Creek at 19.05, Sarafiyla at 19.40 and Brooch half an hour later, all partnered by stable jockey Pat Smullen, and in the amateur riders race with Whitey O´Gwuan (F. Maguire) at 17,45.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tandem - Most Peculiar - Tawseef
2. Race: Beach Of Falesa - Ballychorus - Queen Alphabet
3. Race: Greatness - The Black Russian - Golden Ticket
4. Race: Little King Robin - Thomas Wedgwood - Break My Mind
5. Race: Alderwood - Art Of Logistics - Burn And Turn
6. Race: Badger Daly - Moonbi Creek - Beau Satchel
7. Race: Sarafiyla - Spring Focus - Kings Ryker
8. Race: Brooch - Duchess Andorra - Gradatim

Glorious Goodwood: second day

Glorious Goodwood continues with another high class card. The track has been watered, but the going is still certain to be very fast. This will not suit Kingman (John Gosden/ James Doyle), but he still looks the one to beat in the Group One Sussex Stakes over a mile at 17.05 CET. His only defeat so far was in the 2,000 Guineas and that form has been well franked anyway. Unfortunately he and Toronado (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) have frightened off most of the opposition, so that we have only 4 runners here and it is hard to imagine the otjher two getting a look in. Toronado won this last year and will definitely prefer this ground, so there is probably llttle between the pair.
There are two more Group races here, the Gordon Stakes at 16.30 and the Vintage Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 16.40. The latter race has been dominated by the Hannon stable in recent years, and they now have two runners: Dr. No (Ryan Moore) and the once-raced Tupi (Richard Hughes). Form choice is Ahlan Emerati (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Jamie Spencer) runner-up last time to the very smart Kool Kompany in Ireland; however that one is also trained by Hannon, so he should know where he stands. Highland Reef (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) is moving up in grade, but is the obvious danger.
The Gordon Stakes over 1 1/ 2 miles for 3yo´s is a major St.Leger Trial and is usually won by a subsequent Group One horse. Red Galileo (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) has not run since finishing fifth in the Derby, but that form could still be good enough. We also liked the way German-bred Scotland (Andrew Balding/ JIm Crowley)ran on at Ascot, where he finished in front of Snow Sky (Sir Michael Stoute/ James Doyle) and he is the danger. In theory Somewhat (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) must also have a good chance, having finished third at 100-1 in the Eclipse, but we are a bit dubious about that form.
Johnston has in any case good prospects of winning the opening Goodwood Stakes over 2 miles 5 furlongs with Maid in Rio (Fanning). It is most unusual for a 3yo to take on older horses over this extreme trip, but this fily, who has won 5 of her last 6 starts, won so easily last week at Ascot that we would not put anything beyond her.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Maid In Rio - Lieutenant Miller - Ray Ward
2. Race: Snow Sky - Observational - Somewhat
3. Race: Toronado - Outstrip - Darwin
4. Race: Highland Reel - Ahlan Emarati - Tupi

5. Race: Shahah - Avenue Du Monde - Royal Razalma
6. Race: Patterned - Hiking - Principle Equation
7. Race: Englishman - Liberty Jack - George Rooke

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Galway Festival: second day

the card at Galway is not so strong today as it was yesterday, but there are still some very interesting events. To our surprise Dermot Weld only won one race yesterday, but he was runner-up 3 times and there could be more to come today. Antique Platinum (Pat Smullen) looks a near certainty in the maiden race at 21.15 but is unlikely to start at a working man´s price. Hidden Universe (Smullen) is more interesting in the 2 mile handicap at 20.10. He won the Champion Bumper in 2010 but has had lots of problems since; However he looks very nicely handicapped now. Weld and Aidan O´Brien always dominate the 2yo races here (as they did again yesterday), and its Weld´s Chinese Light up against O´Brien´s Together Forever at 19.05; we have no real opinion on this, but will be surprised if another trainer gets a look in here. O´Brien should in any case have a winner over hurdles with Shield (Robbie Power) at 18.05, while neoither of the Big two has a runner in the 2 3/4 mile chase at 18.35; Domination (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell) won on the flat at Royal Ascot last month, but also jumps well and looks very nicely weighted here. The most valuable race of the day is the 8 1/2 furlongs handicap at 19.40 which looks very tricky; we will row in with the Weld/ Smullen team again and Defining Year, but there are plenty of possibilitiues in this very open race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Shield - Shemshal - Rich Coast
2. Race: Domination - Cailin Annamh - Pride Of The Artic
3. Race: Chinese Light - Together Forever - Cocoon
4. Race: Baraweez - Hint Of A Tint - Bold Thady Quill
5. Race: Papa`s Way - Alileo - Cassells Rock
6. Race: Six Silver Lane - Sretaw - In Salutem
7. Race: Antique Platinum - Henson - Clear Intent

Glorious Goodwood: first day

Gloroius Goodwood starts today with a high class card and continues through Saturday. There could even be a German winner as Amarillo (Peter Schiergen/ Adrie de Vries) certainly has a each way chance in the main event, the Group Two Lennox Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.05 CET. Toormore (Richard Hannon) is the obvious favourite here, after winning his first 4 races, he was far from disgraced in the 2,000 Guineas and St. James´s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Hannon has another 3yo entered, Anjaal (Paul Hanagan), who looks less likely, but should not be overlooked, especially considering the fantastic form of the owner. Garswood (Richard Fahey/ Ryan Moore) won this race last year,. with Boom and Bust (Marcus Tregoning/ Martin Dwyer) third - and should be in the shake up again, with Es Que Love (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby) next best. But Amarillo is running over his best trip and we expect him to do well.
The trainers to follow at this meeting are Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston, and Hannon is continuing his father´s fighting policy here, with runners in almost every race. He has 3 in the Group Three Molecomb Stakes for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 15.30 and should take this with Beacon (Richard Hughes) who is very fast and clearly goes well on this firm going; Cotai Glory (Charlie Hills/ George Baker) possibly found 6 furlongs too far last time and looks the main danger.
The 4 handicaps on today´s card all look extremely difficult. Our each-way selections are top-weight Tha´ir (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) at 14.55, Dashing Star (David Elsworth/ William Buick) at 16.40, Skytrain (Mark Johnston/ Hanagan) at 17.50 and Daylight (Andrew Balding/ Oisin Murphy) in the last race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Stomachion - Magic Hurricane - Ajman Bridge
2. Race: Cotai Glory - Mukhmal - Dougal
3. Race: Toormore - Garswood - Amarillo

4. Race: Havana Cooler - Dashing Star - Repeater
5. Race: Winstanley - Acaster Malbis - Dark Profit
6. Race: Lesha - Sheila`S Buddy - Buckstay
7. Race: Lexi`S Hero - Daylight - Swiss Cross

Monday, July 28, 2014

Galway Festival starts today

two of the most pleasant summer meetings will be held this week, Glorious Goodwood in southern England, which starts tomorrow, and the Galway Festival in the west of Ireland which starts today and goes on all week.
There is one simple rule to betting at Galway; bet everything trained by Dermot Weld, regardless of form. The Curragh trainer has an amazing record here and clearly targets this meeting. This is of course no secret and punters as well as bookmakers are well aware of this, so one must also consider if the odds reflect any value, but we can certainly expect a dozen winners this week from the Weld stable.
He can start with Manhattan Swing (Davy Russell) in the very first race, a novice hurdle for 4yo´s at 18.10 CET. This has attracted a good field, but Weld has won this race 6 times and knows what is required. His next runner is Postulation (Pat Smullen) in the 2yo maiden an hour later; Aidan O´ Brien also does well at this fixture and his Jamaica, with son Joseph aboard, is the obvious danger. Between them Weld and O´Brien have won the last 8 runnings of this.
Weld has also won 4 of the last 7 editions of the amateur riders 2 mile handicap at 19.45, the most valuable race of the day. He has two runners here, Pay Day Kitten (Robbie McNamara) and Grecian Tiger (RP Quinlan); the former is probably the stable´s main hope, but we would certainly not discount the latter at these weights.
McNamara also partners Call Vinnie in the final bumper at 21.15, bought quite expensively after winning a point to point and makiing his rules debut here. In between, Pat Smullen partners two 3yo´s in handicaps, Bobby´s Heart over 7 furlongs at 20.15 and the Aga Khan´s Timiyan over 1 1/2 miles half an hour later; they are both unexposed, but these races look quite tricky. But we would certainly be surprised if Weld does not end the day with at least two winners, and probably more.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Manhattan Swing - Mckinley - Ridestan
2. Race: Oscar Vespasian - King Blue - Artful Artist
3. Race: Jamaica - Vocaliser - Vicarage
4. Race: Wither Hills - Gambling Girl - Fire Fighter
5. Race: Ashtaroth - Tom Dooley - Botanical Lady
6. Race: Annus Mirabilis - Resiliency - Primogeniture
7. Race: Call Vinnie - Flight Plan - Lucky Pat

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Listed race at Pontefract

Strangely enough, there is no racing today in Ireland, but that is because the big Galway meeting starts tomorrow and all the top trainers (notably of course Dermot Weld) are already on their way. The only black type race in the U.K. is the listed Pomfret Stakes over a mile at 17.05 at Pontefract. Highland Knight (Andrew Balding / David Probert) won this in 2012 and has good chances of scoring again; he has been racing in mainly much company since, including a victory at Baden-Baden. Irish challenger Elleval (David Marnane/ Jamie Spencer) is an obvious danger, but we shall take a chance on 3yo Cordite (Mike Appleby/ Andrew Mullen), who was not disgraced when fifth in Cologne to Lucky Lion despite trying to run out; he possibly needs softer going than he is likely to find here, but could still run into the places at a good price.

The card at Ascot, two maidens and 4 handicaps, can clearly not be compared to yesterday´s top class offerings, but the races are all very competitive. Lady Cecil will be in Munich today, but can still take the 1 1/2 miles handicap at 16.05 with Retirement Plan (Ryan Moore). The 5 furlongs handicap that ends proceedings at 18.20 looks very tricky. Results from the two previous days of the meeting suggest that low-to-middle draws have an advantage, so we shall select Masamah (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley), who has a good CD record and is drawn 7.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Never Easy - Dark Reckoning - Charlie Croker
2. Race: Men Don`t Cry - El Bravo - Merchant Of Medici
3. Race: Spanish Plume - Eltheeb - Wahgah
4. Race: Highland Knight - Custom Cut - Artigiano
5. Race: Boy In The Bar - Misplaced Fortune - Sunraider
6. Race: Lockhart - Cliff - Mr Gatsby
7. Race: Pearl Noir - Pabusar - Mey Blossom

Saturday, July 26, 2014

King George at Ascot

Typical overkill Saturday today with racing all over the place, but pride of place goes clearly to Ascot with the Group One King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 1 /2 miles at 16.50 CET, the best summer race in the U.K. and easily the best race of the day. The Queen will be there as the race honours her parents, but there will not be a German winner this time, as there has been for the two seasons. Instead we have 5 runners trained in Newmarket and 3 in Ireland. Unusually there are 3 3yo´s in the field, all trained by John Gosden. This age group has a very poor record here - 9 out of the last 10 winners have been 4yos-but that is because few of the best ones run. Today we have the Oaks winner Taghrooda (Paul Hanagan), the Derby third Romsdal and Royal Ascot winner Eagle Top (William Buick), but we are still a bit sceptical and prefer the older horses. Telescope (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) represents the most sucessful trainer in the race and was a spectacular winner at Royal Ascot. He is very reminscient of Harbinger, an easy winner for Stoute after winning the same race in 2010 and he looks the one to beat. We also think Trading Leather (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) could run into a place; he won the Irish Derby last year and was a good runner-up to Novellist in this.

The main supporting feature is the Princess Margaret Stakes for 2yo fillies at 15.05. This looks rather a weak edition and we expect Muraaqaba (Mark Johnston/ Hanagan) to come out on top, and his owner also has a good chance of taking the opener, a listed race for 2yo´s at 14.30 with Charlie Hills´ Muhaarar. Obviously the Queen would like a winner at this meeting and her Peacock (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) looks the main danger. The 4 handicaps all look extremely tricky; our very tentative suggestions are American Hope (Mike Murphy/ Shane Kelly) at 15.40, Don´t Call Me (David Nicholls/ Oisin Murphy) at 16.15, Hadaj (Ruth Carr/ Serene Brotherton) at 17.25 and Trip to Paris (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) at 18.00.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Muhaarar - Kodi Bear - Peacock
2. Race: Osaila - Muraaqaba - Goldcrest
3. Race: Billingsgate - Moohaarib - Glorious Empire
4. Race: Horsted Keynes - Belgian Bill - Ayaar
5. Race: Telescope - Taghrooda - Eagle Top
6. Race: Red Refraction - Desert Society - Hadaj
7. Race: Trip To Paris - High Master - Our Gabrial

Friday, July 25, 2014

Ascot gearing up for tomorrow

Plenty of racing today with 8 meetings (2 of them in Ireland) and the standard is generally better than was the case earlier in the week. Ascot is gearing up for one of its biggest days of the year tomorrow but today´s card is also good enough, and is headed by the listed race for fillies and mares over a mile at 16.55 CET.In theory this should go to Euro Charline (Marco Botti/ Andrea Atzeni), who was fifth in the 1,000 Guineas and a close third in the Coronation Stakes, by far the best pieces of form on offer here. Kiyoshi (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) was well behind her at Ascot, but the stable is now in better form and she was pretty smart last year. Woodland Aria (John Gosden/ William Buick) looks best of the older runners. Ascot also stages two decent handicaps, over 2 miles at 16.20 and over 10 furlongs at 17.30. Mark Johnston, currently in great form, has an excellent record in handicaps at this track and won both these races last year. It would be no great surprise if he were to repeat the feat today. His runners in the stayers race are Sir Frank Morgan (Buick) and Maid in Rio (Silvestre de Sousa), the only 3yo in the field. They are both very progressive and although they have shot up the weights, must hold good chances here, with Boite (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Rab Havlin) third in last year´s Queens Vase over this CD, but only seen twice since- possibly the main danger. In the later race Johnston relies on top-weight Salutation, ridden by good claimer Mike Murphy; if he can repeat his performance at the Royal meeting, he would also have an obvious chance.

There is also a listed race for fillies and mares, this time over 10 furlongs, at 20.30 at York´s evening meeting. Tasaday (Saeed bin Suroor/ Kieren Fallon) is the one to beat here. She was trained by André Fabre last year and had good form in the top French fillies races, and also ran well in Dubai in the winter; she has not been out since running unplaced in the Duty Free, but faces much lesser opposiiton here. Regardez (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) looks the main danger; she won a similar race last time at Newcastle after running down in the field in the Oaks. Ex-German Tahira (John Quinn/ Phillip Makin) won two BBAG sales races for Uwe Stech last year; she could run into the money, but we would be surprised i she were good enough to win this.

Ascot - betting forecast:
1. Race: Malabar - Crystal Malt - Mistrusting
2. Race: Bronze Maquette - Alpine Affair - Be Bold
3. Race: Elidor - Maid In Rio - Sir Frank Morgan
4. Race: Euro Charline - Kiyoshi - Woodland Aria
5. Race: Salutation - Zain Eagle - Double Discount
6. Race: Iffranesia - Atlantis Crossing - Bajan Bear

Thursday, July 24, 2014

2 group races at Leopardstown this evening

not for the first time, the top events are run this evening in Ireland, where Leopardstown stages 2 group races. They are both for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs, and the first one is for fillies only at 19.25 CET. This looks quite competitive, but Aidan O´Brien has won this 5 times in the last 6 years and now saddles 3 of the 8 runners. Needless to say, they are all very well bred and we assume that his son Joseph has made the right choice by partnering Cocoon, even though she was only 7th on her debut. That was in a hot maiden at the Curragh, when she was only the third choice of 3 O´Brien juveniles, but she ran well enough to suggest that she would be winning soon. The dangers are, apart from her stable companions, Agnes Stewart (Eddie Lynam/ Billy Lee) and Marsali (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), as well as the Aga Khan´s Raydara (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley). Half an hour later, the equivalent race for colts has only 3 runners, a dismal turnout. The O´Brien´s run Gleneagles, an easy winner at the Curragh last time, but behind Convergence (Ger Lyons/ Colin Keane) on his debut here. However the choice is Tombelaine (Weld/ Smullen) who ran like a horse with a big future when scoring on his debut over this CD 6 weeks ago.
The best racing in the U.K. is this afternoon´s card at Sandown. We like German-bred Dandy (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.40. From a top Röttgen family, he has finally come into form and has won his last two races; this is much tougher, but the handicapper has not been too harsh and we think that he can progress further. Fortune also rides a German-bred in the 3yo handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 15.30. This is Hughie Morrison´s Fun Mac, and he also has a fair each way chance; being by Shirocco he should stay well enough, but would prefer some rain to fall which looks unlilkely.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: John F Kennedy - Prologue - Order Of St George
2. Race: Korbous - Carenza - California Rose
3. Race: Marsali - Raydara - Jack Naylor
4. Race: Tombelaine - Convergence - Tombelaine

5. Race: Byron Beauty - Muileata - Mr Snagsby
6. Race: Egyptian Warrior - Snowmane - Papa`s Way
7. Race: Annus Mirabilis - Hudson`s Bay - Unrequited

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Listed race in Ireland this evening

The best race today again comes from Ireland - the listed event for fillies and mares over 6 furlongs at 20.30 this evening at Naas. Tobann (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) has the best recent form, having won a Group Three last time, but she has to concede weight as a result. The 3yo´s Seas of Wells (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh) and Sparrow (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) look dangerous, while Gathering Power (Eddie Lynam/ Fergal Lynch) represents the owner and trainer who have been winning all the top sprints this year with Sole Power and Slade Power. However our selection is English raider Minalisa (Rae Guest/ Fran Berry), who has solid listed form to her credit and was only beaten a head in this last year.

The best of the 5 U.K. cards is also in the evening, at Sandown, where there is a small but select field for the 7 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 20.45.Several of these could be running in black type races later on, and this goes especially for our selection, the well-bred Provenance (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore).

At Worcester, the novice hurdle at 16.10 sees Nathans Pride (Alan Johns) set to give lumps of weight away, as he has already won 2 bumpers and 3 times over hurdles, including this CD, At these weights we fancy debutant Chesterfield (John Ferguson/ Tony McCoy), quite useful on the flat for Godolphin, can put an end to his winning run.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kasbah - Simply A Star - Sassy But Classy
2. Race: Albert The Bold - Red All Star - Ring Speed
3. Race: Doonard Prince - Above The Law - Lady Ranger
4. Race: Tobann - Gathering Power - Sparrow
5. Race: Vector Force - Strait Of Zanzibar - Captain Cullen
6. Race: Eljowzah - Cool Athlete - Furacano
7. Race: Michaelmas - Chance To Dance - Bold Thady Quill

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

5 more poor meetings today

to be honest, today´s racing in the U.K. and Ireland is so poor that one could happily give it a complete miss. There is flat racing this afternoon at Musselburgh and this evening at Carlisle, with jumps racing at Southwell (afternoon) and Bangor (evening), while there is also an all-hurdles card in Ireland at Ballinrobe. Not only is there no quality, there is no quantity either, as practically none of the U.K. races have enough runners to enable normal each way betting. On top of that, in yet another ridiculous piece of race planning all these meetings are in the North or in Scotland.
Every winner Tony McCoy now rides means a new record, and there could be two of them at Southwell today, courtesy of She´s Late at 17.45 CET and Ozzy Thomas half an hour later, both trained by Jonjo O´Neill. Meanwhile his boss JP McManus could also have a double at Ballinrobe, with Riverside City at 20.20 and Whatever It Takes half an hour later both having possibilities.
On the flat, Bunce (Linda Perrett/ James Sullivan) could make a quick reappearance after winning at Ayr yesterday; he is entered in the 5 furlongs handicap at Musselburgh at 17.00 and as this tough campaigner seems to run every week anyway, this need not be a problem. In his absense we would fancy Flash City (Ruth Carr/ Peter McDonald), third at Haydock last Friday.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Testa Rossa - Staffhoss - Ellaal
2. Race: Bizzario - Moonlightnavigator - Little Houidini
3. Race: Findog - Opt Out - Windforpower
4. Race: Valantino Oyster - Eilean Mor - Geanie Mac
5. Race: Flash City - Salvatore Fury - Jumbo Steps
6. Race: Maoi Chinn Tire - Claude Carter - Voice From Above
7. Race: Running Reef - Orwellian - Ixelles Diamond

Monday, July 21, 2014

5 poor meetings today

as usual Monday has very little to offer in tbe way of better class racing, with the vast majority of races at today´s 5 meetings low grade handicaps. At Ayr this afternoon two recent winners can score under a 6 lbs penalty - Goninaedaethat (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee), who won last Monday over this CD beating several of these - and Taurus Twins (Richard Price/ Alistair Rawlinson), who won at Nottingham on Friday; they run in the sprint handicaps at 15.45 CET and 16.20 respectively. Le Chat d´Or (Michael Dods/ Paul Mulrennan) is another CD winner who can score at 17.55; the soft ground here is in his favour, while it is on the firm side everyhere else.
There is flat racing this evening at Beverley and Windsor. At the former track there is a 2 mile handicap for 3yo´s at 21.15 - quite unusual for July. As German-breds are noted for their stamina we might risk a small each way bet on Etzean-bred Pindora (Noel Quinlan/ Ben Curtis). he is from the well-known Prairie family, as is Prairie Rose (Olly Stevens/ Harry Bentley), who goes for the 10 furlongs maiden at 19.55 at Windsor. Pindar (Jodie Foster/ Sammy Drake) was bred by Schlenderhan, but is not related to the above pair. He runs in the handicap hurdle at 18.15 at Cartmel; he is frankly not much good, but this is a very weak race. Ex-German Birthday Guest (Philip Kirby/ Henry Brooke) runs here in the maiden hurdle at 15.00; he won 5 races when trained in this country, but all at a very low level, and on flat form Autun (Brian Ellison/ Tony McCoy) must be preferred.
There is a mixed meeting in Ireland at Ballinrobe, with 4 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles. No stars on view here, but Que Sera Sera (David Wachman/ Fran Berry) has shown glimpses of ability and may win the conditions race at 19.35.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Prince Of Time - Glenalmond - My Dream Boat
2. Race: Jinky - Baron Run - Lightnin Hopkins
3. Race: Gowanharry - Taurus Twins - Alaskan Bullet
4. Race: Surround Sound - Locky Taylor - Gambino
5. Race: Next Stop - Real Jazz - Porthos Du Vallon
6. Race: Le Chat D`Or - Ifwecan - Dubai Dynamo
7. Race: Harrison`S Cave - Rowlestone Lass - Latin Rebel

Sunday, July 20, 2014

group races at the Curragh

once again Ireland gallops to the rescue on a Sunday, as the Curragh Oaks meeting continues with another good card, while the 3 U.K. meetings (2 of them over jumps) are of little account. The main event is the Group Two race for fillies and mares over 9 furlongs at 16.45 CET, which was won last year by Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore with Dank and they try again with Mango Diva.On Epsom form she is held by Odeliz (Karl Burke/ Danny Tudhope), while the all-conquering Aidan O´Brien team runs Peace Burg, third in the Falmouth Stakes last time. However the one to beat is surely My Titania (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh), who pulled too hard for her own good at Royal Ascot, but looked a potential Group One star last season.
The other group race, over ten furlongs half an hour earlier, has only 5 runners, but still looks wide open. The 2 3yo´s Afternoon Sunlight (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) and Ponfeigh (Oxx/ McDonogh) obviously have a chance, as does the O´Brien runner Festive Cheer, off since Meydan, but our choice is Parish Hall (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning); he has not really lived up to the high hopes held for him after the won the Dewhurst 3 years ago, but must surely be capable of scoring in this company.
Our best bet at the Irish jumps meeting at Tipperary is Molly Conners (Henry de Bromhead/ Davy Russell) in the opening maiden hurdle at 15.35; she has a good N.H. pedigree, has already twice run well over hurdles and gets all the allowances. Aidan O´Brien has a leading fancy here as well, as MacBride, ridden by his daughter Sarah, can defy a double penalty in the concluding bumper at 18.35.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Toogoodtobetrue - Gussy Goose - New Alliance
2. Race: As Good As Gold - Ohh Lala - Sauanna Belle
3. Race: Ponfeigh - Afternoon Sunlight - Festive Cheer
4. Race: My Titania - Peace Burg - Mango Diva

5. Race: Wither Hills - Blue Ridge Lane - Zeftan
6. Race: Yulong Baoju - Masai - Kernoff
7. Race: Witches Brew - Supposing - Duchess Andorra

Saturday, July 19, 2014

U.K. racing today

there is also plenty of good racing in the U.K. with 6 meetings, 2 of them over jumps. There is quite a bit of rain forecast for some areas, so punters should watch out for any cange in the going (it is currently good to firm at most tracks) and any consequent non-runners.
Easily the most valuable race of the day is the Weatherbys Super Sprint for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 16.50. The weights for the 25 runners depend on the price they fetched at public auction, so Tiggy Wiggy (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who has the best form but also cost a lot at the sales, has to concede weight all round. The Hannon stable always target this race and have 5 runners, as does Richard Fahey, who won the race last year, and we fancy the Yorkshire trainer can follow up with Realta (Silvestre de Sousa), who can benefit from her low weight. Magical Memory (Charlie Hills/ William Buick) and Haxby (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) are the dangers to the big two. Also at Newbury, the Group Three Hackwood Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.15 has attracted a strong field. Ahtoug (Charlie Appleby/ Buick) is very smart over 5 furlongs, but we fancy the final furlong could be a bridge too far. Hamdan al Maktoum has two contenders in Heeraat (Richard Hughes) Intibaah (Brian Meehan/ Paul Hanagan) in the first colours. Naadirr (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) is a danger, while if heavy rain were to fall we would also fancy Eton Rifles (Stuart Williams/ James Doyle), but as it is, our selection is Music Master (Henry Candy/ Fergus Sweeney), who ran a great race when fourth in the Diamond Jubilee. The horses running today are in the listed race over 10 furlongs at 15.40. Al Kazeem (Roger Charlton/ Doyle) last ran in the Arc, Vancouverite (Appleby/ Jamie Spencer) in the Dubai World Cup and Triple Threat (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon) in the Ganay! Al Kazeem is clearly the best of these on 2013 form, when he was just about the best horse in the world over this trip, but has had an abortive spell at stud since and is almost certain to need the race. We will go along with the Monsun colt Triple Threat, whose trainer´s raids on the U.K. are always well planned.
There is also decent flat racing at Newmarket, where Ryan Moore can take the fillies listed race at 15.25 with Sir Michael Stoute´s Astonishing before jetting off to Ireland, but otherwise the most interesting sport comes over the jumps from Market Rasen, which stages just about the best jumps meeting of the summer. Tony McCoy has 6 rides and looks certain to beat Martin Pipe´s old record of 4191 winners; if he does not manage to win one of the first 4 races, he can score at 17.05 on John Ferguson´s Parllour Games.

Betting forecast Newmarket:
1. Race: Music Theory - Llanarmon Lad - Tanseeb
2. Race: Criteria - Astonishing - Khione
3. Race: Arethusa - Snow Cover - Jellwa
4. Race: Athenian - Lady Horatia - Holley Shiftwell
5. Race: Cloud Line - Marmoom - Moonvoy
6. Race: Englishman - Compton - Ansaab
7. Race: Winter Thunder - Agent Murphy - Earl Of Menteith

irish Oaks at the Curragh

lots of good racing today, but the top race is clearly the Irish Oaks at 18.45 CET at the Curragh. Aidan O´Brien is always the place to start in the Irish classics and he saddles 5 of the 11 runners. With all due respect, we can probably ignore Beyond Brilliance, ridden by his younger daughter Ana, but his son Joseph rather surprisingly partners Tapestry, up in trip after disappointing in 2 Group Ones over a mile. Colm O´Donoghue poarzners Royal Ascot winner Bracelet, but she has little in hand of runner-up Lustrous (Richard Hannon/ Pat Dobbs); it could be significant that Ryan Moore is flying over from Newmarket (where he rides in the first 2 races) to partner Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Marvellous, sixth in that Ascot race. Hoqaever the key race for us is the Eplsom Oaks, won by Hamdan´s Taghrooda, who was hot favourite here before being switched to next week´s King George. The owner is having a great season and has an able deputy of Tarfasha (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), runner-up at Epsom but only a short head in front of Volume (Luca Cumani/ Kevin Manning), with Marvellous and Palace (O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan) well back. Weld´s second runner Vote Often (Wayne Lordan) needs a lot of rain to fall, which seems unlikely, while conditions should be perfect for Tarfasha, who is our selection.
The Oaks is backed up by a strong card which includes 2 Group Threes, both with a strong O´Brien entry. Darwin (Joseph) will attempt to repeat last year´s victory in the Minstrel Stakes over 7 furlongs at 17.40. He was a narrow winner last Sunday over 6 furlongs, but that form is not good enough; this trip is better, but we still prefer the 3yo filly Waltzing Matilda (Tommy Stack/ Lordan), in receipt of 15 lbs.
The O´Brien runner in the Anglesey Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 18.10 is Dick Whittington, but he finished just behind Toscanini (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley) at Royal Ascot and that could happen again, while the filly Newsletter (Ken Condon/ Smullen) also ran very well at Ascot and is a another danger.
One should also certainly watch the opening 2yo maiden here at 16.00, which O´Brien won last year with Australia. He has 3 runners this time (so does John Oxx), of which St. Patricks Day (Joseph) might be the best.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: St Patrick`s Day - I Will Excel - Parish Boy
2. Race: Oor Jock - Whitey O` Gwaun - Kings Ryker
3. Race: Sea Coast - Ramone - Sretaw
4. Race: Eastern Rules - Darwin - Waltzing Matilda
5. Race: Newsletter - Dick Whittington - Toscanini
6. Race: Tarfasha - Marvellous - Volume

7. Race: Blackstone - Gone Viral - Show Court
8. Race: Annus Mirabilis - No Wunder - Sea The Lion

Friday, July 18, 2014

listed races at Newbury and Hamilton

6 meetings in the U.K. today (plus a jumps meeting in Ireland) and much better class racing than we have seen for the past few days, with both Newbury and Hamilton staging listed races. The Scottish track races in the evening, and the Glasgow Stakes for 3yo´s over 1 mile 3 furlongs at 21.10 CET looks an interesting trial for the St. Leger. Impulsive Moment (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) and Sudden Wonder (Charlie Appleby/ Silvestre de Sousa) both ran unplaced in the Derby last time; we prefer the former, but Postponed (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) looks a big threat. Hamilton also stage the best handicap of the day, the Scottish Stewards Cup over 6 furlongs at 20.40. Richard Fahey has won this 3 times in the last 6 years and saddles 3 runners today; Tatlisu (Tom Eaves) and Khelman (Pat Mathers) are both up in the weights after winning last time, so we prefer the rather inconsistent Sir Reginald (George Chaloner), who can certainly win this if in the right mood. Mass Rally (Michael Dods/ Paul Mulrennan) is the class act in the field, but has a huge weight, and CD specialist Hopes N Dreams (Kevin Ryan/ Graham Lee), who runs her best races here, looks the main danger.
At Newbury, the listed event is a 2yo race over 6 furlongs at 16.40. It looks a match between Adaay (William Haggas/ Paul Hanagan) and LImato (Henry Candy/ James Doyle). The latter is very promising and is unbeaten after winning twice at Kempton. However this is his first time on turf and we prefer tjhe Hamdan al Maktoum runner, whose owner has several good chances here today. Hanagan should certainly go home with a winner or two, but in the two main handicaps we side with Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore, who can take the 16.05 with Sea The Bloom and the 17.45 with Enobled.
One of the weaknesses of British and Irish racing and breeding is shown by the fact that the top races everywhere else are over sprint distances. We think that the 5 furlongs handicap at Nottingham at 16.30 could lie between the oldtimers Inxile (David and Adrian Nicholls) and Doctor Parkes (Steve Williams/ Freddie Tylicki), while Paul Midgley´s two runners could dominate the 5 furlongs handicap at Pontefract at 20.30. The conditions race over the same trip at Newmarket at 20.20 can go to Godolphin´s Strategical (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick). While at Haydock this afternoon, the main event is another 5 furlongs handicap at 16.50; Sleepy Blue Ocean (John Balding/ Luke Morris) won it last year and can go close again.

Betting forecast Newbury:
1. Race: Nafaqa - Marshall Jennings - Dissolution
2. Race: Taaqah - Sulaalaat - Black Cherry
3. Race: Sea The Bloom - Cay Dancer - Wojha
4. Race: Adaay - Limato - Step To The Shears
5. Race: Ask The Guru - Flying Bear - Edged Out
6. Race: Enobled - Insaany - Border Legend
7. Race: Ada Lovelace - Ray Of Joy - Chevise

Thursday, July 17, 2014

listed race in Ireland this evening

as so often, the best racing comes from Ireland today. There is a good card at Leopardstown this evening, featuring the listed Challenge Stakes over 1 3/4 miles at 22.00 CET. Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen did not won this last year, but they scored five times in succession before that and we expect them to win again with the smart 5yo mare Pale Mimosa; she won the Saval Beg over this CD last year on her only previous run here and has easily the best form in the race, though a bit of rain would probably help. Certerach (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley) is the obvious danger; he won the Dubai Gold Cup this year and last timer was runner-up in the Curragh Cup, but we doubt that he can concede 10 lbs to the Weld mare.With an eye to the future, the two 2yo maidens that open the card should certainly be watched, as there are some well-bred newcomers from top stables running here, who could well be group horses later on. Weld/ Smullen have runners in both races with chances, but there is plenty of opposition.
Also in Ireland, we have the final day of the Killarney meeting this afternoon with another mixed card - 3 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles and a bumper. The best race is the handicap hurdle at 17.40. Xsquared (Joanna Morgan/ Joe Cullen) has won his last 3 races over sticks, but is not well handicapped now and is in any case inferior on flat form to Orgiglu Bay (JC McConnell/ MJ Bolger), a very easy winner at Downpatrick only on Monday. However our choice is Sizing Italy (Henry de Bromhead/ Barry Geraghty), who has not run over hurdles for quite a while, but has good form both over fences and on the flat and now seems very nicely handicapped. He won a chase at this meeting last year and can now run off a mark 23 lbs below his chase rating.
The best event in the U.K. is the conditions race for 3yo´s over 10 furlongs at 16.25 at Leicester. Unfortunately, as is often the case, the field has cut up badly and only two runners are prepared to take on Arod (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Jamie Spencer).who followed his second place in the Dante with an excellent fourth in the Derby. Sir Jack Layden (David Brown/ Ryan Moore) and Spark Plug (Brian Meehan/ Jimmy Fortune) are both very useful performers, but we cannot imagine that they can defeat Arod at level weights. However he is not a good betting proposition at the likely long odds-on.

Betting forecast at Leopardstown:
1. Race: Initial - Rule The Waves - Fields Of May
2. Race: Raydara - Vocaliser - Mohaayed
3. Race: Flight Risk - Rightway - First Sitting
4. Race: Oor Jock - Focas Mor - Relentless Pursuit
5. Race: Castle Of Argh - Sea`s Aria - Blackstone
6. Race: Vastonea - Magnolia Beach - Chance To Dance
7. Race: Pale Mimosa - Certerach - Eye Of The Storm

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

McCoy to beat Pipe´s record today

Tony McCoy is currently stuck on 4,190 winners - an amazing total in itself- but has long made it clear that his immediate target is to beat David Pipe´s British record of 4,191 (achieved as a trainer), We think that he can manage this today, when he has 3 rides at Uttoxeter this afternoon and 4 more at Worcester this evening. He only has an hour to get between the two tracks, which is pretty tight, but we assume there will a helicopter waiting for him. His rides are Zip Wire at 15.50 CET, On The Record at 17.10 and Dashing Over at 18.20 this afternoon, and Old Pals Act at 19.20, My Nosy Rosy at 20.25, Crannaghmore Boy half an hour later and Think Out Loud at 22.00 this evening. We don´t really recommend betting on them, as some will start at very short odds, but we certainly hope he reaches his target today and ends a frustrating few days.

Another couple that can land an across the card double, this time on the flat, are Michael Bell, now back in form after a slow start to the season, and his smart apprentice Louis Steward. They can take Lingfield´s main event this afternoon with Fashion Line at 16.40 and Sandown´s evening feature with George Cinq at 20.40.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

5 poor meetings today

a typical Tuesday with mainly rubbish racing. The best sport comes this evening from Ireland with the mixed card at Killarney (4 flat races and 3 chases). The most valuable race is the 2 miles 1 furlong handicap chase at 21.00 CET, in which we expect one of the two top-weights to score, Klepht (Tony Mullins/ Davy Condon) or Ted Veale (Tony Martin/ Barry Geraghty), probably the latter, who has been running - without much success- in top company. Elsewhere on this card, Aidan O´Brien´s El Salvador should win the Q.R. race over 1 3/4 miles at 20.30; he is a real family horse, being owned by his wife and ridden here by daughter Sarah. The only conceivable danger is Il Fenomeno (Noel Meade/ Nina Carberry), a useful N.H. performer who however has not run on the flat for almost 4 years.
Thee races in the U.K. are of minimal interest, and with some small fields are in the main not at all punter-friendly, especially with the ground now firming up again. The sprint handicap at 16.15 at Bath looks between the well-bred 3yo Jacob´s Pillow (William Haggas/ Nathan Alison) and Speed Hawk (Robert Cowell/ George Baker). The latter has been running in good races and ran well at Ascot on Saturday in a much hotter race, but the prefer the former, who looks capable of further improvement and whose latest form has worked out well.
At Beverley, the 2 mile handicap at 16.30 can go to the improving Longshadow (Jason Ward/ Joey Haynes). He has an excellent German pedigree, being a half-brother by Monsun to Group One winner Lady Marian. Should he run well, that would be a pointer to the chances of Mason Hindmarsh (Karen McLintock/ Connor Beasley) at 20.10 at Thirsk, who was runner-up to him last time.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Blackstone - Elusive Laurence - Intense Debate
2. Race: Stay De Night - Strait Of Zanzibar - Whimsical
3. Race: Rayna - Botanical Lady - Celtic Artisan
4. Race: El Salvador - Il Fenomeno - Cardinal Palace
5. Race: Nearly Nama`d - Ted Veale - Klepht
6. Race: Tylers Cottage - Prosperity Square - Fort George
7. Race: Domination - Cailin Annamh - Alelchi Inois

Monday, July 14, 2014

listed race in Ireland this evening

6 meetings today, but again mainly at a very low level, and once again Ireland comes to the rescue with a listed race this evening at 19.40 CET at Killarney for fillies and mares over 8 1/2 furlongs. Everyone is on the lookout for black type for their well-bred fillies, and so we have a large field here including 3 each from Aidan O´Brien and Paul Deegan. To be frank, the latter´s runners probably have no chance, but the O´Brien runners are a different matter, and our selection is Palace (Seamus Heffernan), who ran unplaced on both the Oaks and the Irish 1,000 Guineas but was far from disgraced and meets much lesser oposition here. The danger is Sparkle Factory (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen).
In the U.K. there is flat racing at Ayr this afternoon and Lingfield (a.w.) and Windsor this evening. King of Macedon (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) is certainly not one of the stable stars, but as the only 3yo in the field and getting a lot of weight,he might be good enough to take the 7 furlongs handicap at the Scottish track at 18.00. With the large Sir Mark Prescott operation now swinging into gear, the Newmarket trainer can land a double at Lingfield witjh Windshield at 19.20 and Shaft of Light an hour later, both partnered by Luke Morris. Most of the top jockeys are at Windsor, but the card is very poor; German-bred Prairie Rose (Olly Stevens/ Harry Bentley) has a fair each-way chance in the fillies mile handicap at 21.00.
There is also jumps racing this afternoon at Newton Abbot and, in Ireland, at Downpatrick, which stages an all-hurdles Card.

Betting forecast at Killarney:
1. Race: Herewego - The Ice Meister - Magno Clamore
2. Race: Teocht - Carenza - Vasoni
3. Race: Palace - Terrific - Sparkle Factor
4. Race: Lilly The Lioness - Byron Beauty - Hangar Five
5. Race: Daisy`s Gift - Give Her Bach - Millie Le Bach
6. Race: Behemoth - Ronava - Curragh Golan
7. Race: Daring Carlotta - Hello Sweetie - Jenmarie

Sunday, July 13, 2014

4/5 jumps meetings today

It is almost from the sublime to the ridiculous, as yesterday´s racing with 4 high-class flat cards is followed by today´s fields, with no flat racing at all in the U.K., but 3 N.H. fixtures. Impossible to imagine what is the point of all this.

The only flat racing now comes from Ireland, but even there the Fairyhouse card is well below par for a Sunday. Main feature is the listed race over 6 furlongs at 16.40 CET. Slade Power won this in 2012, but there is nothing in today´s field of his calibre and indeed the likely favourite Darwin (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) has been beaten out of sight by him on both his 2014 starts. However this ex-US runner had some decent form last season and should be good enough to account for this field, with stable companion Sparrow (Seamus Heffernan) the main danger, along with fellow 3yo Sailors Swan (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen).

Best race in the U.K. is the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 16.45 at Southwell, where Shubaat (John Ferguson/ Barry Geraghty), Master Malt (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) and Masterofdeception (Dr.Newland/ Christopoher Ward) are all chasing hat-tricks. None of them appears to be well handicapped now, so we shall take a chance on bottom-weight Green Wizard (Sue Smith/ Jonathan England) who stays well and is on a very lenient mark.

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Rest of today´s racing

there is also plenty of good racing outside of Newmarket -too much of it in fact, with Ascot, York and Chester all staging strong cards. There are plenty of non-runners, but while at HQ they are because of the soft ground, at the other tracks they have had no rain and the ground is too firm!

3 non-runners have weakened the field for Ascot´s main feature the Group Two Summer Mile at 15.30 CET. The tough Mull of Killough (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ George Baker) was runner-up in this last year, with Guest of Honour (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) third and Trumpet Major(Richard Hannon/ Pat Dobbs) sixth, and can go one better this time. Producer (Hannon/ Dane O´Neill) in fact finished in front of him last time at Royal Ascot, but we go for the more experienced runner here. Highland Knight (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), a Baden-Baden winner 3 years ago, could also go well. The 5 furlongs handicap at 14.55 is the big betting race here and Masamah (Botti/ Harley), drawn right on the rail, can repeat last year´s victory from Racy (Brian Ellison/ Pat Cosgrave), while 2013 third Zero Money (Hugo Palmer/ Neil Garbutt) is possibly drawn on ther wrong side.

The biggest handicap of the day is York´s John Smith´s Cup over 10 furlongs at 15.55. 4 non-runners here, but still wide open. The Queen´s Bold Sniper (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) just failed to win a similar race at Royal Ascot and must go close again. Ex-German Tahira (John Quinn/ Phillip Makin) had good form for Uwe Stech last year and looks one of many dangers. Ryan Moore has complained about the stupid clash of fixtures today and no doubt he could have been riding the favourites at all 4 meetings, but he has a good book here and we can easily imagine his winning 3 or even more races. He has however no ride in the 2 miles handicap at 17.40, in which we are very interested in Great Fighter (Saeed bin Suroor/ Andrea Atzeni), who is out of the smart German runner Evil Empire (by Acatenango).

At Chester, the enigmatic Glory Awaits (Kevin Ryan/ Ian Brennan) runs in the listed race over 7 furlongs at 16.25. He was second in the 2013 2000 Guineas and more recently seventh in the Queen Anne, and that form makes him almost unbeatable in this company -however he occasionally runs a stinker, so be warned! A better bet could be Arnold Lane (Mick Channon/ Sam Hitchcott) in the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.00. He was unlucky at Windsor last time and we have not forgotten the way he won at Munich last year.

Newmarket July meeting: final day with July Cup

Today is the final day of Newmarket´s July Meeting, with the Group One July Cup over 6 furlongs at 16.50 CET the main feature. In our opinion it is crazy to run this race on a Saturday when there is so much high class racing elsewhere. However of more immediate interest is the going, which is still soft after the heavy rain on Thursday night and this will undoubtedly be a factor; there are no non-runners at the time of writing, but they could still come.

There is a strong international challenge here with 5 runners from Ireland, and one each from Spain and the USA. It would certainly be nice if the American Undrafted (Wesley Ward/ Frankie Dettori), owned by football star Wes Welker, could win this, but we don´t really believe it. The Spanish runner Noozhoh Canarias is more interesteing with Christophe Soumillon on board. He led for a long way in the 2,000 Guineas and this shorter race was immediately announced as his next target; last October he was runner-up in the Prix Lagardere on very soft ground, and that was also very strong form.

However we expect an Irish winner today. Eddie Lynam won both Group One Sprints at Royal Ascot, with Sole Power (Richard Hughes) and Slade Power (Wayne Lordan) and they both show up again. Over this distance and on this ground we have no hesitation in preferring Slade Power, who seems much improved since finishing third here last year. At Ascot he beat Due Diligence (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), who is surely the best of his trainer´s 3 runners here, with Aljamaaheer (Roger Varian/ Paul Hanagan) a close third, with more of these further back. The ground was fast then, but he had earlier defeated the smart Maarek on very soft ground in Ireland, so the going is no problem. We cannot really fancy any of the British runners, but two that will like the ground and could go well at a big price are Gregorian (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Jack Dexter (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee).

The main supporting feature is the Group Two Superlative Stakes for 2yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.40. There are some very promising types entered here, including the well-bred Estidhkaar (Richard Hannon/ Hanagan) and the O´Briens´ Gleneagles, but they both won on firm ground last time and we shall take a chance on Smaih ((Hannon/ Dettori), who has a very interesting German pedigree.

The big betting race is the Bunbury Cup, a 7 furlongs handicap at 16.15. Quite a few of the runners were in action at Royal Ascot and in a very tricky race we choose Ayaar (Luca Cumani/ Dettori), who was a good 5th in the Hunt Cup and at two won the big juvenile event at Baden-Baden.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Token Of Love - Mutawathea - Idea
2. Race: Gleneagles - Lieutenant Kaffee - Estidhkaar
3. Race: Horsted Keynes - Abseil - Ayaar
4. Race: Slade Power - Due Diligence - Noozhoh Canarias
5. Race: Lashkaal - Ya Latif - Nufooth
6. Race: Disavow - Vegas Rebel - When Will It End
7. Race: Phaenomena - Devilment - Mica Mika

Friday, July 11, 2014

German runner at York

Of all the idiotic race planning in the U.K., today (and tomorrow too) must take the biscuit, with strong fields at 3 of the country´s leading tracks. Newmarket, York and Ascot. To be sure, the Ascot Card is below par for this racecourse, with 6 of the 7 races very tricky handicaps, but York´s meeting is one of their best of the year. Rather ironically, there has been no rain at York and Ascot, where the going is good to firm.

York´s main event today is the Group Three Summer Stakes for fillies and mares over 6 furlongs at 15.20 CET. Gracia Directa won this for Germany in 2012 and was runner-up last year, and we think that Emerald Star (Peter Schiergen/ Daniele Porcu) also has a good chance of being placed. Snhe has already scored in England, having taken a Group Three over 7 furlongs at Lingfield in May, and the opposition today is hardly any stronger, while the drop back in distance should be no problem. The main opposition should come from last year´s winner Ladies Are Forever (Geoff Oldroyd/ Danny Tudhope), and Frankel´s half-sister Joyeuse (Lady Cecil/ James Doyle), although we suspect that the latter might prefer softer ground. French challenger Ice Love (Tony Castanheira/ Raphael Marchelli) and Indignant (Richard Hannon/ Pat Dobbs) are next best.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Maljaa - Eye Glass - Tohfa
2. Race: Joyeuse - Ladies Are Forever - Emerald Star
3. Race: Pres Rapide - Dominic Cork - Indescribable
4. Race: Kings Fete - Mighty Yar - Pearl Castle
5. Race: Line Of Reason - Another Wise Kid - Soul Brother
6. Race: Red Warrior - Bishop`s Castle - Las Verglas Star
7. Race: Shot In The Sun - Naggers - Ticking Katie

Newmarket July meeting: day two

there has been a lot of rain on Newmarket and the going is now soft. This means that there will certainly be quite a few non-runners, we have already taken those that are known into consideration, but more non-runners are very likely. The ch The main event is the Group One Falmouth Stakes over the straight mile for fillies amd mares at 15.40 CET. All 7 runners were last seen at Royal Ascot: Integral (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) won the Windsor Forest (Group Two), with Purr Along (Johnny Murtagh/ Jamie Spencer) third, Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) 5th, Peace Burg (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) seventh and Certify (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick) well back. Both the 3yo´s ran in the Group One Coronation Stakes, won in good style by Rizeena (Clive Brittain/ Olivier Peslier), with Kiyoshi (Charlie Hills/ Harry Bentley) tenth. Sky Lantern was a very unlucky runner-up in this race last year (Purr Along fourth) and is expected to improve considerably for the Ascot run, but the ground is not in her favour. We are also a bit dubious about Rizeena, who hads never really shone here. We would not be at all surprised to see Kiyoshi (who is by Dubawi) reverse the form this time. However we think that Integral is the most likely winner.
Another interesting pedigree is that of Astronereus (Amanda Perrett/ Hughes) in the 3yo maiden over 10 furlongs at 17.25; he is a half-brother by Sea The Stars to French Derby winner (and now leading sire) Le Havre; he kept on well when second at Goodwood last time and could be a decent each-way bet here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Little Shambles - Free Rein - Wedding Ring
2. Race: High Celebrity - Arabian Queen - Parsley
3. Race: Integral - Sky Lantern - Rizeena

4. Race: Royal Seal - Golden Steps - High On Life
5. Race: Lexington Times - Basateen - Space Age
6. Race: Obsidian - Razor Wind - Astronereus
7. Race: Glorious Empire - Potentate - Johnno

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Newmarket July meeting: day one

the Newmarket July Meeting, always one of the best of the summer, gets under way with some very strong fields, including 3 group races. Royal Ascot form will be severely tested, as a large number of runners in the main events ran last time at the royal meeting. It has been raining, but the ground is still expected to be on the fast side.
We start with the Bahrain Stakes for 3yo´s over one mile and 5 furlongs at 14.40 CET, usually a significant St. Leger trial. Honor Bound (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley), the only filly in the field, won the Lingfield Oaks trial, but was well beaten in the Oaks itself. Hartnell (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) won the Queens Vase, while consistent Windshear (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) was runner-up in a big handicap at Ascot and stable companion Bunker (Frankie Dettori) was fifth in the King Edward VII with Odeon (James Given/ Graham Lee) 7th. The winner of that race was trained by John Gosden, who has won the Bahrain Trophy for the last 3 years and can take it again with the lightly-raced Forever Now (William Buick). He was a ridiculously easy winner at Doncaster last time, and although this is far tougher, Gosden has frequently won big races with 3yo´s with a similar profile.
There follows the July Stakes for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 15.10, arguably the best race of the season so far for this age group. All 15 runners are winners, and several of them ran well at Ascot. The Hannon stable does well here and has 2 runners -Dougal (Jim Crowley) and Ivawood (Hughes); the latter is one of 4 unbeaten colts and won on his debut at odds-on in the style of a really good horse. The same goes for Belardo (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni), and it is possible that these two can take the step up in grade successfully and defeat the Ascot runners.
The best race of the day is the Princess of Wales´s Stakes over 1 1/2 miles for older horses at 15.40. Sir Michael Stoute has won this 9 times and now saddles two runners Arab Spring (Ryan Moore) and Hillstar (Frankie Dettori). The latter was runner-up in the Hardwicke Stakes, but the former is preferred; the Monsun 4yo was the most impressive handicap winner of the year when winning at Ascot and is expected to win on his first attempt in group company. Globetrotter Dandino (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley), 5th in the Melbourne Cup last year, is probably being aimed at that race again, but has plenty of good form over this trip, although he has not won for 2 years. He would not want any more rain, while Botti´s other entry, the ex-German Seismos is a non-runner and possibly runs Sunday in Paris.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Windshear - Hartnell - Forever Now
2. Race: The Great War - Ivawood - Jungle Cat
3. Race: Arab Spring - Hillstar - Pether`s Moon

4. Race: Mount Logan - Insaany - What About Carlo
5. Race: Osaila - Sulaalaat - Dubai Breeze
6. Race: Pretzel - Table Rock - Windfast
7. Race: Oh So Sassy - Doctor Parkes - Harrogate Fair

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

small fields today

the Newmarket July Meeting starts tomorrow with a feast of top class racing, but today´s races are very low level, and mainly with small fields as well. There are only 5 runners in the 9 furlongs handicap at Yarmouth at 17.10 CET, which as a class 3 handicap is the "best" race of the day in the U.K. It should mainly concern top-weight Genius Boy (James Tate/ Kieren Fallon) who has won jhis last 3 races and can probably improve still further and the well-bred Enobled (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who also looks as if he can leave this handicap rating well behind. It is quite an open contest. but at these weights we prefer Enobled.
The most interesting racing this evening comes from Ireland, and the maiden races at Naas are possibly not good betting races but are cetainly of interest for the future, with well-bred nwcomers from top stables entered. The 2yo race over 7 furlongs at 20.30 has two Aidan O´Brien debutants at the start, as well as one each from John Oxx and Ger Lyons, all regarded as very hopeful sorts. This is of course guesswork, but possibly O´Brien´s St. Patrick´s Day could be the one. Half an hour later, 3yo maiden fillies run over a mile. O´Brien has a runner here too, but possibly Fire Stone (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), who runs in the same colours and made a very promising debut at Leopardstown last month, can be preferred. On the form shown so far, Sea Coast (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley) and Mulieata (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) could also be dangerous, but the latter has already run 10 times without winning, so possibly needs to race in a lower grade.

Betting forecast at Naas:
1. Race: Sexy Legs - Puck Fair - Toogoodtobetrue
2. Race: Bilderberg - Colour Blue - Calibrate
3. Race: Ucanchoose - Count Of Carabass - The Dancing Lord
4. Race: Sacrificial - St Patrick`s Day - Torrey Pines
5. Race: Sea Coast - Muileata - Fire Stone
6. Race: Muscle Beach - Vector Force - Derulo
7. Race: Laviniad - Panama Hat - Truly Delightful

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Listed race at Pontefract

Pontefract is the main track today and has the only black type race of the day - the listed Pipalong Stakes for older fillies and mares over a mile at 17.00. Just top-rated here is Dutch Rose (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), but we are not convinced, as she was well beaten in this last year. We prefer Pavlosk (Sir Michael Stoute/ James Doyle) and Masarah (Clive Brittain/ Silvestre de Sousa), who have both been running - without much success- in group races. Butterfly McQueen (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), owned by ex-ManU manager Sir Alex Ferguson, also comes into the equation, but on the whole we go for Masarah at the likely prices. The 6 furlongs handicap here half an hour later is the most interesting betting race of the day. Boy in the Bar (David Barron/ Robert Winston) is the only 3yo in the field and has an obvious chance, having already won twice this year over this CD, but he is meeting better opposition now, and our preference is for the two older CD specialists Dark Castle (Micky Hammond/ Peter McDonald), who won this last year, and Misplaced Fortune (Nigel Tinkler/ de Sousa), who has an excellent record here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bimbo - Sakhee`s Return - Miami Carousel
2. Race: Tower Power - Gabrial The Thug - Obboorr
3. Race: Orient Class - Storyline - Lexington Rose
4. Race: Pavlosk - Dutch Rose - Masarah
5. Race: Boy In The Bar - Misplaced Fortune - Hadaj
6. Race: Nancy From Nairobi - Mizzou - Pas De Cheval
7. Race: Eddiemaurice - Green Zone - Solid Justice

Monday, July 07, 2014

Listed race in Ireland this evening

5 meetings today, but almost all at a very low level. By far the best race of the day is the listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 21.30 CET at Roscommon. Ursa Major (Johnny Murtagh/ Fergal Lynch) has the highest official rating, but that is due to his 4th place in the 2012 St. Leger. He missed all of last season and on nhis comeback was well behind the consistent Qewy (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh).Three-year-olds have a good record here and we doubt that the penalised Qewy can concede so much weight to Balisarius (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan) and especially Ebeyina (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen); the Aga Khan´s filly gets all the allowances, and although she is unproven at the trip, we hope she wins.

In the U.K. there are some small fields, even over sprint distances, with only 5 runners in Ayr´s 5 furlongs handicap at 18.00. Jinky (Linda Perrett/ George Chaloner) won here yesterday over 6 furlongs, and if he turns out again under a penalty could go close again. But top-weight Algar Lad (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), a real distance specialist and 6th in the Gosforth Cup at Newcastle .last time, looks the one to beat.

There is another small field for Ripon´s 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 21.10. 3 of the 6 runners are last-time-out winners, with preference for top-weight Telmeyd, who can continue William Haggas´ good run under Seb Sanders. The best betting race of the day is the 3 1/4 miles handicap chase at Newton Abbot at 16.45. Paul Nicholls has sent a strong team and has an obvious chance of taking this with Merrion Square (Sam Twiston-Davies); but he has to give 16 lbs to Sheriff Hutton (Martin Hill/ Tom Scudamore), who was third in this last year and looks very nicely handicapped here.

Saturday, July 05, 2014

rest of today´s racing

there is plenty more good racing today and Sandown also has 3 more black type races on the card. Several top sprinters line up in the Group Three 5 furlongs race at 15.05 CET. Several of them ran in the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot, with Stepper Point (Willie Muir/ Martin Dwyer) doing best in second after making the running. We are not sure that this form will stand up and hope that Ahtoog (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick), a close fifth, can reverse the form and give his connections a nice warm-up for Hamburg tomorrow. Queen Catrine (Charlie Hills/ Ryan Moore) ran well at Royal Ascot and can take the fillies listed race at 16.15, while Andrew Balding has good prospects in the 2 mile listed race at 17.25, where he saddles two runners: Havana Beat (David Propert), 8th in the Gold Cup, and Whiplash Willie (Jimmy Fortune) who seems to be better than after after his long layoff.
The Group Two Lancashire Oaks at 15.55 at Haydock is the second biggest race of the day.Lustrous (Richard hannon/ DSean Levey),runner-up in the Ribblesdale, is the only 3yo in the field and gets a handy weight allowance. It has been raining at Haydock and the going is now soft, which will improve the chances of Seal of Approval (James Fanshawe/ Hayley Turner). She won the big filles race at Ascot last October with Talent (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) third. We shall take a chance on Silk Sari (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni), who was just behind Sultanina (John Gosden/ Rab Havlin) over this CD last time. The soft ground will also be to the advantage of Blue Surf (Amanda Perrett/ Pat Dobbs) in the big handicap here at 16.30.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: War Spirit - Dreams Of Reality - Signore Piccolo
2. Race: Complicate - Soul - Justice Day
3. Race: Seal Of Approval - Talent - Sultanina
4. Race: Havana Cooler - Magic Hurricane - Mighty Yar
5. Race: Muqaawel - Divine Law - Jersey Bull
6. Race: Dark Emerald - Alejandro - Capo Rosso
7. Race: Roseburg - Tanseeb - Al Busayyir

Eclipse Stakes at Sandown

the Eclipse Stakes over ten furlongs at 16.50 CET at Sandown today is always one of the best races of the season, and is usually the first opportunity for the top 3yo´s to face their elders over a relatively neutral distance. In the last 30 years there have been 10 3yo winners, 10 4yo´s and 10 5yo´s. There are 5 3yo´s in today´s line-up. including Derby runner-up Kingston Hill (Roger Varian/ Frankie Dettori) who missed last week´s Irish Derby because of the firm going - and the Epsom 7th True Story (Saeed bin Suroor/ Kieren Fallon), as well as 2,000 Guineas winner Night of Thunder (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes); Night of Thunder was then runner-up ar Royal Ascot to the top-class Kingman, with War Command (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan). O´Brien possobly has better prospects with the ex-American Verrazano (Ryan Moore), second in the Queen Anne, but both the O´Brien runners, as well as Night of Thunder, are unproven beyond a mile.
Best of the older runners is undoubtedly the 5yo mare The Fugue (John Gosdn/ William Buick), who was most impressive when winning the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot, beating the course record in the process. That was her fourth Group One success and she hads plenty of top-class form to her credit. What is not in her favour is the fact that she ran badly in this race last year, that fillies and mares have a very poor record here, and the possibility that her Ascot effort - tho it looked easy enough- may have taken more out of her than expected. She is the logical favourite but is not a great bet at the likely price.
Mukhadram (William Haggas/ Paul Hanagan) was runner-up here last year after being hampered. He could be an interesting outsider, altho well held by The Fugue on 2013 form. Another longshot is Tullius (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), also up in trip but a Sandown specialist. Like Kingston Hill, he needs more rain to fall.
There was some overnight rain, but not a huge amount and the going is still officially good to firm. The firmer the better for The Fugue, also for last year´s Irish Derby winner Trading Leather (Kevin Manning), True Story and the two O´Brien runners.
It would probably be wise to wait and see how the weather develops before placing any bets. If it stays the way it is, then The Fugue is the obvious candidate, but ve are just a bit dubious. Mukhadram could an interesting each-way alternative.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Captain Bob - Mutawathea - Royal Seal
2. Race: Stepper Point - Steps - Kingsgate Native
3. Race: Russian Realm - Gabrial`s Kaka - St Moritz
4. Race: Radiator - Queen Catrine - Veiled Intrigue
5. Race: The Fugue - Night Of Thunder - Verrazano
6. Race: Whiplash Willie - Nearly Caught - Domination
7. Race: Prince Of Stars - Gothic - Idder

Friday, July 04, 2014

Listed races at Sandown

The best racing today comes from Sandown - although tomorrow´s card featuring the Eclipse Stakes is obviously much stronger. Unfortunately the two main events, both listed races, have cut up quite a bit and only 4 run in the 2yo race over 5 furlongs at 15.30 CET. All 4 have decent winning form, but this is likely to be a match between Beacon (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Mukhmal (Mark Johnston/ Paul Hanagan). The other listed race, over 10 furlongs at 16.35 has 6 runners, 3 of wnhom ran during the winter at Meydan. Indeed last year´s Cambridgeshire winner Educate (Ismail Mohammed/ Tom Queally) and Tha´ir (Saeed bin Suroor/ Andrea Atzeni) have not run since so we have to hope that they are in good form. Perhaps Godolphin´s other runner, the consistent Windhoek (Kieren Fallon) can be preferred. The handicaps here have bigger fields and look very competitive.

Over 5 furlomngd at 15.00 we hope that Tagula Night (Dean Ivory/ Ryan Moore) can notch up his fourth CD victory; he is not so well handoicapped now but clearlylovres this track. Last year´s winner Doctor Parkes (Stuart Williams/ James Doyle) is just one of many dangers. Over 10 furlongs at 17.10 we have another CD specialist engaged- Chain of Events (Michael Wigham/ William Buick), who has won his last 3 races, the last 2 of them this CD; however several of the horses that finished behind him reoppose on better terms now and he is no good thing to complete the fourtimer. Perhaps Jarraar (Hannon/ Hanagan) could be the answer; he is still a maiden but has run some good races in defeat.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tagula Night - New Fforest - Goldream
2. Race: Mukhmal - Beacon - Union Rose
3. Race: Mustadeem - New Brunswick - Darshini
4. Race: Educate - Windhoek - Tha`ir
5. Race: Vital Evidence - Chain Of Events - Cactus Valley
6. Race: Economy - Ronaldinho - See And Be Seen

Thursday, July 03, 2014

small fields today

6 meetings today, 5 of them on the flat, and it is obvious that the supply of runners for some categories is beginning to run dry, as there are some very small fields. The most valuable race of the day is the 3yo handicap over 1 3/4 miles at 17.20 CET at Haydock, but this has attracted a disappointing turnout of only 4 runners. It still looks quite tricky, but we select Alex My Boy (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), with the stable in top form; he was a very respectable 8th of 18 in a much hotter handicap at Royal Ascot. He shares top weight with Altaayil (Sir Michael Stoute/ Paul Hanagan), who is very promising but still a maiden, and the bottom weight Tiger Lilly (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton), from another stable in top form, could be the main danger. Fahey has several more chances here, and Foxy Clarets (George Chaloner) can follow up a recent Pontefract victory under a penalty at 16.20, while the same claimer rides Imshivalla at 17.50. That one also has prospects, but we prefer The Silver Kerbayaa (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick); that trainer was totally out of form during the late spring, but his horses are running much better now.
There are even small fields in Ireland, and only 5 line up for the main event this evening at Leopardstown, a conditions race for 2yo´s at 19.20. They are all last-time-out winners, and in view of the stable´s fantastic form we have no hesitation in plumping for the very well-bred Toscanelli (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan). The maiden race over 1 3/4 miles which closes the card at 22.00 is also interesting; Ebazziyr (James Leavy/ Kevin Manning) and the mare Pink Hat (Willie Mullins/ Billy Lee) both have good bumper form and could fight this out between them.

Betting forecast Haydock:
1. Race: Ferryview Place - Watersmeet - Evervescent
2. Race: Dutch Connection - Faydhan - Shootingsta
3. Race: Dreams Of Reality - Foxy Clarets - Brother Tiger
4. Race: Epithet - Lieutenant Kaffee - Joshua Potman
5. Race: Altaayil - Tiger Lilly - Alex My Boy
6. Race: Burnt Fingers - Ejadah - Imshivalla
7. Race: Balducci - Chosen Character - Life Partner

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

group race at Fairyhouse this evening

once again the best race of the day is an evening group race from Ireland, the Brownstown Stakes for fillies and mares over 7 furlongs at 20.00 CET at Fairyhouse. With the usual great planning, this is run just a few minutes after a similar race at Hamburg and two days after a similar race in France. So obviously there are Irish-trained runners only at Fairyhouse, and the obvious candidates are Majestic Queen (Tracy Collins/ Pat Smullen) and Wannabe Better (Tommy Stack/ Wayne Lordan), both penalised for winning at Leopardstown last time. The latter is higher-rated, but the former probably beat better opposition, including Sparrrow (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), Seas of Wells (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh) and Califante (Tom Hogan/ Robbie Whelan),who all line up again today. We fancied Seas of Wells then and shall give her another chance today, although logically she looks held.
In the U.K. there are jumps meetings at Perth and Worcester this afternoon, and also flat racing from Catterick and later on at Chepstow and Kempton (a.w.). None of these is of great importance,but we do notice two old friends running in the stayers handicap hurdle at 16.10 at Perth: Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ James Reveley) from a top Fährhof family, and Solis (Dianne Sayer/ Henry Brooke) out of an Acatenango mare. Of these we prefer the former, who has not won over hurdles for almost 3 years but usually runs well at Perth and is now very nicely handicapped. Both stay well enough and should appreciate this faster ground, so a German-bred forecast is a possibility. The danger is Ryton Runner (Lucinda Russell/ Craig Nicol), runner-up over this CD last time.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Monsieur Power - Bilderberg - Next Bend
2. Race: Cape Wolfe - Cruidin - Soebroto
3. Race: Majestic Queen - Wannabe Better - Sparrow
4. Race: Hatton Cross - Eljowzah - Oighear Fuar
5. Race: Blackstone - Royal Memory - Focussed
6. Race: Grecian Tiger - Snow Scene - Queen Of Alba
7. Race: Panama Hat - Sar Oiche - Port Merrion

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

sprinters in Scotland

5 meetings todays but again, little of importance. There are also some very small fields, especially on the firm going at Bath and Brighton, and the cards at these two tracks are not at all punter-friendly.
5 of the 7 races at the Scottish meeting at Hamilton are over sprint distances, and the 5 furlongs conditions race there at 16.45 CET is the most interesting race of the day. Even though Bix has no chance whatever and will probably finish tailed off, the other 4 runners are all of interest. 9yo Tangerine Trees (Bryan Smart/ Tom Eaves) won the Abbaye in 2011 and a repeat of that performance would certainly see him win here; however his form since has been very in-and-out. Sir Maximilian (Tim Pitt/ Steve Donohoe) is a consistent handicapper over this trip, while Hopes N Dreams (Kevin Ryan/ Paul Mulrennan) has won 6 times here - but always at 6 furlongs. We shall take a chance on Victory Laurel (Robert Cowell/ Jamie Spencer), well beaten on his only start this year (in good company in France) but who had smart form in Italy last season and whose trainer is a specialist for such events.
We are not fans of summer jumping, but the Australian-bred Retrieve (John Ferguson/ Tony McCoy) looks the likeliest winner of the maiden hurdle at Stratford at 19.00. He was a listed winner on the flat and the trainer (aka Sheikh Mohammed´s racing manager) does very well with these ex-Godolphin runners over hurdles. An hour later German-bred Seventh Sky (Charlie Mann/ Gavin Sheehan) runs in a handicap chase over 2 1/2 miles; this
half-brother to Samum and co finally came good with an easy win at Fontwell 27 days ago and can follow up in this better race.
There is Irish racing at Gowran Park this evening and the Aidan/ Joseph O´Brien team can continue their good run by winning with their only 2 runners - Highland Reel at 18.50 and Red Rocks Point at 20.50.

Betting forecast Hamilton:
1. Race: Surewecan - Pipe Bomb - Spring Offensive
2. Race: China In My Hands - Last Destination - Look On By
3. Race: Corton Lad - Aleksandar - Mambo Rhythm
4. Race: Victory Laurel - Tangerine Trees - Sir Maximilian
5. Race: Master Bond - Ambitious Icarus - Bunce
6. Race: Epic Voyage - Royal Connoisseur - Bifocal
7. Race: Funding Deficit - Spoken Words - Red Shadow