5 poor meetings today

back to normal today with 5 poor meetings and plenty of races with small fields. Only 4 line up for Ripon´s 2yo race at 16.40 CET; Northern Water (Karl Burke/ Joey Haynes) was a non-runner in tne listed race here yesterday and should score in this lower grade after running a good race at Beverley on Sunday. The handicap over just short of 10 furlongs at 17.15 is the most competitive race of the day, with several strongly fancied runners. The lightly-raced 3yo Spirit of Rio (David Barron/ Graham Gibbons), an easy maiden winner over this CD 3 weeks ago, is one of them but he has been given quite a demanding rating. Triple Eight (Philip Kirby/ Matt O´Connell) is another one who likes this track and is well handicapped, but our main preference is for top-weight St.Moritz (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), who has been running in some tough races and is down in grade here.
Ryan Moore has rides in all 6 races at Epsom and we expect him to have some winners. In our opinion his best chances are Picture Dealer, trained by his father Gary, at 15.50, Panther Patrol (Eve Johnson Houghton) at 16.55 and the well-bred Fantasy in Blue (Sir Michael Stoute) at 17.30.
This evening´s cards - on the all-weather at Southwell, over jumps at Sedgefield and a mixed Irish meeting at Ballinrobe are all uninspiring. At Southwell, Slip of the Tongue (Luke Morris) looks a typical Sir Mark Prescott improver and can complete a quick fourtimer at 19.45. At Sedgefield, Sky Khan (Philip Kirby/ Adam Nicol), who has been in good form both on the flat and over jumps, looks a near certainty to win the novice hurdle at 19.55, but will be at a very short price.
The 2 miles 1 furlong chase at Ballinrobe at 20.05 has attracted a good field, and Laganbank (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) has an obvious chance, but at these weights we prefer Pires (Tony Martin/ Paul Townend), but Mullins and Walsh can take the final beginners chase at 21.05 with the very promising Darroun, making his chasing debut.

Betting forecast Ripon:
1. Race: Chloe`s Image - Rosselli - Multifact
2. Race: Simply Black - Rural Celebration - Fredricka
3. Race: We`ll Shake Hands - Yajamila - Khalice
4. Race: Northern Water - Muspelheim - Innocently
5. Race: Triple Eight - Spirit Of Rio - Dolphin Rock
6. Race: Sardanapalus - Aerodynamic - The Osteopath
7. Race: Bouggler - Naburn - Strikemaster
8. Race: Ravi River - Mister Carter - Grammar

Bank Holiday Monday

Today is a bank holiday in the U.K. , which means lots of racing - on the flat at Epsom, Ripon, Newcastle, Warwick and Chepstow, and over jumps at Huntingdon, Bangor, Cartmel and Downpatrick (N. Ireland), but mainly at a low level. The best race is the listed Champion Two-Year-Old Trophy over 6 furlongs at Ripon at 16.35 CET, and Supplicant (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton) looks a clear favourite here after his good run at Royal Ascot.

He also over this CD a week ago, but had nothing to beat. Today´s field is obviously stronger and we like the look of Hoku (Olly Stevens/ Harry Bentley), who won in very good style last time and will be well suited by the soft ground. He also has an engagement at Baden-Baden this week, but it seems that he will be running at Ripon instead. The Ripon Rowels mile handicap at 17.10 is the big betting race of the day and looks wide open. Robert the Painter (David O´Meara/ David Bergin) has top-weight after winning 3 times (including this CD), but is no longer well-handicapped and possibly prefers faster groiund, and the same goes for hat-trick seeking The Rectifier (Seamus Durack/ Micky Fenton). Haafaguinea (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby) and Desert Revolution (Mark Johnston/ Franny Norton), both lightly-raced 3yo´s, look very dangerous, but we prefer two old-timers with a good course record- Osteopathic Remedy (Michael Dods/ Connor Beasley), who has won this race twice before, and front -runner Suits Me (David Barron/ Graham Gibbons).

Epsom stages a decent bank holiday card with the Amateur Derby over the full Derby trip of 1 1/2 miles at 17.15 the main event. Two course specialists are the favourites here - but neither of them for this racecourse: Beacon Lady (Will Knight/ Paddy Mullins) has an amazing record at Brighton, where she has finished first or second on her last 7 starts - all this summer- while Azrag (Gerard Butler/ Simon Walker) has done all his winning at Wolverhampton, where he won a similar race last Friday with this good amateur aboard. Knight won a good race at Deauville yesterday and as Brighton is quite similar in some ways to Epsom, we give preference to his filly.

Away for 2 days

This column is away for the Weekend and will be back on Monday.

rest of York

The main supporting feature is the Group Two Lonsdale Cup over an extended 2 miles at 15.40 CET. Times Up (Ed Dunlop/ Ryan Moore) is a CD specialist and won this last year for the present trainer´s father. He certainly has god prospects again, but we just prefer Simenon (Willie Mullins/ Johnny Murtagh), a smart hurdler but also very useful on the flat as he showed when runner-up in this year´s Gold Cup at Ascot.

Colour Vision (Saeed bin Suroor/ James Doyle) won last year´s Gold Cup but has struggled a bit since and jockey bookings suggest that Ahzeemah (Silvestre de Sousa) is Godolphin´s main hope here; he was runner-up last time in the Goodwood Cup and is remarkably consistent, but we think the Ascot form is probably stronger.

The other group race is the Strensal Satkes over 9 furlongs at 16.05. This looks weak and Pavlosk (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) looks by far the most liklely winner. City Style (Charlie Appleby/ Silvestre de Sousa) ran badly on his only start in the U.K., this year, but had some decent form in Meydan and is probably the main danger.

The handicaps are as tricky as ever, with the uncertainty about the going and the draw adding to the difficulty. Scatter Dice (Mark Johnston/ Franny Norton) and Rio´s Rosanna (Roger Whitaker/ Russell Kennemore) are our main fancies over 1 1/2 miles at 14.55, and Equity Risk (Kevin Ryan/ Neil Callan) and Short Squeeze (Hugo Palmer/ Martin Dwyer) over a mile at 17.55.

Nunthorpe Stakes at York

the Ebor Festival continues into its third day, with the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.40 CET the main feature. This is one of the hottest sprints of the year and looks certain to be run at a furious pace. No fewer thsn 4 previous winners are in the line-up - Kingsgate Native (Robert Cowell/ Shane Kelly- 2007!), Borderlescott (Robin Bastiman/ Tony Hamilton, 2008 and 2009) and Sole Power (Eddie Lynam/ Johnny Murtagh, 2010). Kingsgate Native and Borderlescott are now getting a bit long in the tooth, and although we think they are still both capable of winning good races, probably not this one. It´s a different matter with Sole Power, who was 100-1 when he won here but is now established as one of the best 5 furlong specialists in the world. He would have been our selection, but the heavy overnight rain - it is now good to soft- has changed the complexion of the race. We do not think he will act on this ground and prefer his old rival Shea Shea (Mike de Kock/ Frankie Dettori). Shea Shea beat Sole Power at the Meydan meeting in March but was just caught in the King´s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, with several of these behind. Shea Shea has won on the soft back in South Africa, and de Kock´s runners are now doing well; Frankie has not won a group race since his comeback, but is in good form and has a big chance here.
We shall leave out Sole Power, but certainly fear his stable companion Slade Power (Wayne Lordan), while we also expect two speedy 3yo´s to run well- Moviesta (Bryan Smart/ Paul Mulrennan), who is much improved and beat several of these when winning at Glorious Goodwood, and especially Rosdhu Queen (William Haggas/ Ryan Moore), who was unbeaten last year at two but has struggled a bit this year. This could be her race, and both trainer (whose birthday it is!) and jockey are in great form, as have already seen at this meeting, so Rosdhu Queen looks a very interesting each-way alternative.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Winterlude - Gospel Choir - Kiama Bay
2. Race: Simenon - Times Up - Ahzeemah
3. Race: Pavlosk - Archbishop - City Style
4. Race: Shea Shea - Sole Power - Moviesta
5. Race: Golden Town - Red Galileo - Master The World
6. Race: Machete Mark - Majestic Moon - Hay Dude

rest of York

The Lowther Stakes, a Group Two for 2yo fillies over 6 furlongs at 15.30 CET is the main supporting feature at York today, and the logical winner has to be Lucky Kristale (George Margarson/ Tom Queally), who won the Cherry Hinton at Newmarket´s July meeting. However she has a 3 lbs penalty for that success, and the unbeaten J Wonder (Brian Meehan/ Martin Lane) and especially Wind Fire (David Brown/ Jamie Spencer) will not be easily brushed aside with this weight concession in their favour.
The listed Galtres Stakes for fillies at 17.20 is over the same distance as the Yorkshire Oaks and we expoecxt Aidan O´Brien and Ryan Moore to take this as well as the Group One with Say, who is top-rated here and has been running in better company. William Haggas usually does well at this meeting and has two irons in the fire here with Lady Nouf (Andreas Atzeni) and lightly-raced Our Obsession (Frankie Dettori), but we think the main danger could be another very lightly-raced filly in Songbird (Lady Cecil/ Queally).
The sales race for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs that opens the card at 14.55 is the second most valuable race of the day, and with decent prize-money going down to tenth place, they will certainly all be trying. Most of the runners seem better at 5 furlongs, but our choice Nezar (Haggas/ William Buick) was just beaten over 7 last time, so is certain to get the trip; Sleeper King (Kevin Ryan/ Phillip Makin) and Rufford (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) could be the dangers in a very tricky event.
Even trickier are of course the two handicaps. Our 3 against the field at 16.05 over a mile are CD specialist Navajo Chief (Alan Jarvis/ Michael Murphy), Sandagiyr (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Windhoek (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), and over 7 furlongs at 17.55 last year´s winner Dutch Rose (David O´Meara/ Kieren Fallon), Malekat Jamal (David Slimcock/ Darren Egan) and Ghasabah (Haggas/ Hanagan).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Thunder Strike - Sleeper King - Rufford
2. Race: J Wonder - Lucky Kristale - Wind Fire
3. Race: Queensberry Rules - Hot Bed - Sandagiyr
4. Race: The Fugue - Venus De Milo - Riposte
5. Race: Say - Songbird - Star Lahib
6. Race: Nurpur - Indignant - Ghasabah

Yorkshire Oaks today

today is Ladies Day at York with 4 of the 6 races confined to fillies. including the main event, the Group One Yorkshire Oaks over 1 1/2 miles at 16.40 CET. There are 4 3yo´s in the field opposed by 4 older fillies and it looks quite open.
The Irish tok the first two places in yesterday s big rasce here and will be aiming to dfo the same with Venus de MIlo (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) and Scintillula (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), second and fourth respectively in the Irish Oaks, when Riposte (Lady Cecil/ Richard Hughes) started favourite but could finish only 5th. The other 3yo Secret Gesture (Ralph Beckett/ Jamie Spencer) also has good Oaks form to her credit - she was runner-up in both the English and German versions. We definitely prefer Venus de Milo of these, and it looks as if her stable had rather underestimated her early in the season, but that certainly won´t be the case now and she will probably go off favourite.
Of the older horses The Fugue (John Gosden/ William Buick) is clearly the best; she is top-rated here and ran a good second in this race last year. She was a huge disappointment in the Eclipse last time, but her earlier Royal Ascot form was good enough, and with her stable back in top form, she has everything in her favour today. Emirates Queen (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) ran ran well at Deauville last time and earlier won the Lancashire Oaks, beating Moment in Time (David Simcock/ Jim Crowley), who had earlier defeated Nymphea. This is solid form, but we are not sure that it is up to top Group One standard.
We would obviously love to see the German-bred Wild Coco (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally) run well. The Röttgen-bred has been very carefully handled by Lady Cecil, and before that Henry, and is the choice of stable jockey Tom Queally; however there must be a doubt about her handling the fast going. The ground will suit Emirates Queen and Secret Gesture, and they may be the two to bustle up the favourites, but we expect the race to lie between The Fugue and Venus de Milo, with slight preference for the latter.
later: Wild Coco non-runner, Queally likely to ride Riposte

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Thunder Strike - Sleeper King - Rufford
2. Race: J Wonder - Lucky Kristale - Wind Fire
3. Race: Queensberry Rules - Hot Bed - Sandagiyr
4. Race: The Fugue - Venus De Milo - Riposte
5. Race: Say - Songbird - Star Lahib
6. Race: Nurpur - Indignant - Ghasabah

International Stakes at York

York´s Ebor Festival starts today and for many people it is the best meeting of the year. Today´s highlight is the Group One International Stakes over an extended 10 furlongs at 16.40 CET and despite having only 6 runners, this is one of the best fields of the season. The race has an illustrious history and the best horses seen so far this century both won it - Sea the Stars in 2009 and Frankel last year - but there have also been some shocks, we still remember Brigadier Gerard losing his unbeaten record here some 40 years ago.
Place money goes down to sixth place - 10 grand for the last to finish which can´t be bad- theoretically this has to be Rewarded (Jamie Toller/ Tom Queally) who is to be rewarded this way, but we would not bet on this - we would rather find the winner.
That is not easy as the other 5 runners are genuine Group One performers and Al Kazeem (Roget Charlton/ James Doyle) is in fact going for this fourth successive win at this level, having won the Tattersalls Gold Cup, Prince of Wales and Eclipse, which makes him the best middle distance horse in Europe - so far. Toronado (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is next in the betting and obviously a huge threat after his excellent win in the Sussex Stakes. He is actually the highest-rated runner, but there has to be a question over the distance - he has never run beyond a mile. He is by High Chaparral so there is some hope there, but we still prefer the more solid El Kazeem.
This is by no means a two horse race and both the Irish challengers have chances. Trading Leather (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) is a very tough campaigner who won the Irish Derby and then ran a good second to Novellist at Ascot. In what is certain to be a tactical race, he could well make the running at a false pace and steal the race that way. Declaration of War (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) is held by Al Kazeem on Eclipse form, and has since run 4th in the Jacques le Marois, but we have not forgotten the way he won over a mile at Royal Ascot; however the distance could be a problem for him as well.
Hillstar (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) has to be respected, but needs to improve; that is certainly possible, but he finished behind Trading Leather at Ascot and we expect that to happen again.
This is not really a good betting race, but to our mind Al Kazeem is clearly the one to beat, and despite the claims of Toronado, we think that Trading Leather could be the main danger if given the run of the race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Above Standard - Ladyship - Lady Gibraltar
2. Race: The Grey Gatsby - First Flight - Brazos
3. Race: Telescope - Cap O`rushes - Foundry
4. Race: Al Kazeem - Toronado - Trading Leather
5. Race: Homeric - Flashman - Party Line
6. Race: Coulsty - Banaadeer - Ventura Quest

5 more poor meetings today

Once again. very poor fare on offer today., with no race better than class 4 and some very small fields - especially at the two afternoon meetings, making them not at all punter-friendly. Sir Mark Prescott has a good strike rate at Brighton, and his Alzavola (Luke Morris) looks likely to start favourite for the 10 furlongs handicap there at 16.45, but we prefer top-weight Jewelled (Lady Herries/ Martin Lane), who has not won for ages but is consistent enough in this grade, and Claude Monet (Simon Dow/ Sean Levey), who ran quite well last time. The horse George Baker runs for the trainer George Baker in the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.30 at Yarmouth; the jockey George Baker has won on him as well, but today Ryan Moore takes over and the combination can score after a good performance last time in a much better race at Sandown.

Graham Lee looks the jockey to follow at Leicester´s evening meeting; he has several promising rides, notably Geoff Oldroyd´s Jubilee Dancer, going for a fourtimer at 19.00, and Brian Baugh´s Goldstorm an hour later. The most interesting race at Worcester´s N.H. fixture this evening is the novice hurdle at 20.40. Lost Legend (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) is top-rated here, but that is because of his good chasing form- over sticks he has shown less aptitude. My Lucky Flame (Sean Curran/ Mikey Hamill) has won her last 3 races but now has a huge weight, so it could lie between last-time-out winners Benefit of Youth (Tim Vaughan( Richard Johnson) and Kilbree Kid (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) with a slight preference for the latter.

There is a mixed meeting at Sligo this evening, with 4 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles. Our best bet at the Irish meeting is Popmurphy (Ross O´Sullivan/ Andrew McNamara) in the maiden hurdle at 21.20. He has failed to win in 9 attempts so far over the sticks, but has been placed several times, and he was easily the best of these on the flat.

5 poor meetings today

With the big York meeting starting on Wednesday, there is no point in expecting high class racing today or tomorrow and there are very few highlights on today´s 5 cards. At Thirsk this afternoon, Bondi Beach Boy (James Turner/ Peter McDonald) attempts to win his seventh race within the space of 3 months in the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.00 CET. He is obviously one of the most improved horses in training, but he has gone up 32 lbs in the weights since his winning run started and we just wonder if he can beat Waseem Faris (Mick Channon/ Franny Norton) today; in contrast, the latter has not won for 2 years but is very consistent and seems well handicapped. We also like CD specialist It´s a Mans World (Brian Ellison/ Paul Pickard) in the mile handicap here half an hour later; he won this last year and although his recent form is nothing special, a return to his favourite track may bring about a revival.

Windsor stages its final Monday evening fixture of 2013 today; the card is as usual very weak but these meetings are still very popular and the best betting policy is to back Richard Hughes´ and Ryan Moore´s mounts. They should once again dominate this evening, and we fancy Hughes to get the better of things this time. However in the final fillies handicap over a mile at 21.00 we think that Al Jamal (Charlie Appleby/ Harry Bentley) could come out on top.

Appleby sends his main jockey Mickael Barzalona to Wolverhampton for just one ride, Strategical at 18.00, and this one is the certainty of the day, although his odds will reflect this. A more speculative bet at a much longer price could be German-bred Sure Fire (David Evans/ DJ Bates) in the 1 3/4 mile handicap at 19.50. The Monsun gelding is a 3/4 brother to the international champion Stacelita, and although he has so far totally failed to live up to his pedigree, he must have a chance in this lowly company.

There is jumping this afternoon at Worcester, where AP McCoy will undoubtedly ride some winners, although Royal Peak (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) at 17.45 is our best bet here, and there is also a mixed card at Roscommon, with 4 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles. It could be significant that Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh come here for just one runner, Sweet My Lord at 21.10, and this one could be another odds-on winner.

listed race at Pontefract

the usual weak Sunday cards in the U.K. and even in Ireland today, but at least there is a listed race at Potefract, a 6 furlongs race for fillies at 16.45 CET. This looks very open, with 7 older horses against 5 3yo´s, but only few of them of genuine listed class. Of the older fillies and mares, we like Enrol (Sir Michael Stoute/ Shane Kelly) and the tough Galician (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) best, but the winner seems more likely to come from the younger Generation. March (Marcvo Botti/ Luke Morris) isd consitent and was notz far behimnd ther useful Germamn Gracia Directa lasdt time at York, while Margys (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) is top-rated as a result of her Group Two placing lat year; however she has been that form so far this year, and we prefer City Girl (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley); she was behind March last time, but her dam won this and her previous form gives her chances.
The only other flat racing comes from the Irish all-weather track at Dundalk. Most of the 8 races are low grade affairs over short distances, the exception being the 10 1/2 furlongs handicap that closes the card at 18.45. Our selection is top-weight Steps to Freedom (Jessica Harrington/ Conor King), who is also a useful hurdler; this trip is possibly on the short side, but he is a classy performer and is 2 from 2 at this track. His jockey is the latest teenage riding sensation from Ireland, for whom a huge future is forecast.
There is also jumps racing, again at a low level, at Southwell and in Ireland at Tramore. Two German-breds could run into the money at Southwell, although we do not really expect them to win. Engai (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore) makes his chasing debut at 15.30. He has been very consistent over hurdles, winning once and placed second 6 times this year, but fellow debutant Baccalaureate (Sue Smith/ Jonathan England) is rated much higher over sticks, while Avoca Promise (Charlie Egerton/ Sam Twiston-Davies) has already been placed twice over fences. Wiesentraum (Lucy Wadham/ Leighton Aspell) runs in the 2 1/2 miles handicap chase half an hour later. There are some quite useful performers in this small field, including the classy front-runner Billy Magern (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies); however he has a huge weight and we prefer Finger Onthe Pulse (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy), whose trainer and jockeys have a tremendous strike rate at this track, and can score again with Ameri can Legend at 17.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bahamian C - Muir Lodge - Urban Dreamer
2. Race: Fennell Bay - The Lock Master - Getabuzz
3. Race: Come Here Yew - Underwritten - Petella
4. Race: March - Minalisa - Artistic Jewel
5. Race: Mushaakis - Magistral - Gabrial`s Kaka
6. Race: Mahican - Gaspard - Montefeltro
7. Race: Solar Spirit - Keep It Dark - Loch Moy

hot handicaps

the rest of today´s cards are dominated by some very competitive handicaps. The big betting races are the two 6 furlong races at Ripon, in which we hope that low drawn horses have an advantage (this is often the case after rain). Kevin Ryan has a good record in such races and we like his Chooseday (Peter McDonald) at 15.50. The top race at 16.30 looks very difficult and it is possible to make a case for and against every runner. Regular Readers will nmow that we like veterrans in such eventsd and we therefore hope that 11yo Borderlescott (Robin Bastiman/ Jason Hart) and 9yo Regal Parade (Milton Bradley/ Matthew Lawson) will run well; both are drawn low, act on soft ground and have dropped a long way down the weights. Captain Ramius (Kevin Ryan/ Phillip Makin) is only 7, but also fits these requirements; he beat Regal Parade in last year´s Ayr Gold Cup on very soft ground, but the latter is now 10 lbs better off.
Another 11yo we fancy today is Tax Free (David Nicholls/ Fran Berry) over 5 furlongs at 17.15 at Doncaster, although in his case we hope the rain stays away.
At Chester we like Ayaar (Mick Channon/ Sam Hitchcott) in the 7 1/2 furlongs handicap at 16.10. He won the Zukunfts-Rennen at Baden-Baden last year and has finally come down the weights a bit after running in some hot races. He is well drawn and looks a decent each-way bet at a goop price.
All the above are very speculative but we are optimistic that at least some of them run into the money. A likely winner at much shorter odds is ex-German Kassiano (Saeed bin Suroor/ Neil Callan) at 17.00 at Newmarket; he has not run since finishing down the field in the Dubai World Cup, but should outclass today´s opposition.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Cheeky Peta`s - Heroique - Ahoy There
2. Race: Gabbiano - Hopes N Dreams - Chooseday
3. Race: Baccarat - Spinatrix - Louis The Pious
4. Race: Robert The Painter - Annina - Le Chat D`Or
5. Race: Milly`s Secret - Hello Beautiful - Milly`s Secret
6. Race: I Say - Hot Rod Mamma - Nemushka
7. Race: Ambleside - Beat The Tide - Good Speech

group races at Newbury

a very busy Saturday with 9 meetings (including some decent summer jumps racing at 3 tracks) as well as a strong card at Deauville and also some excellent racing at Arlington Park in Chicago this evening.
However by far the best British card is at Newbury where the Group Two Hungerford Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.15 CET is the main event. The interesting runner here is Soft Falling Rain (Mike de Kock/ Paul Hanagan), unbeaten in 7 starts, 4 of them in his native South Africa (including a Group One) and three in Meydan; he is clearly very smart, but there must be a doubt about him on his first race in Europe after more than four months off and on going a bit softer than he is used to. He looks certain to start favourite and could well win, but in our view the value must be to take him on. Two of his 4 opponents have run in Germany - Caspar Netscher (David Simcock/ Shane Kelly) won the Mehl-Mülhens-Rennen last year, while Tawhid (Saeed bin Suroor/ Johnny Murtagh) was third in the same race this year. Caspar Netscher has spent an abortive period at stud, but came back into training and ran an excellent race when runner-up to Garswood at Goodwood, while Tawhid was also a runner-up at the Glorious meeting, when second to Montiridge. Libranno (Richard Hannon/ Kieren Fallon) finished behind him there, and Gregorian (John Gosden/ Robert Havlin) was outclassed there in the Sussex Stakes but is meeting lesser opposition now. This is quite tricky, but we shall go for Tawhid, especially if any more rain falls.
Rain could also have a strong bearing on the result of the Group Three Geoffrey Freer Stakes over one mile 5 furlongs at 15.40, as Red Cadeaux (Ed Dunlop/ Gerald Mossé), Aiken (John Gosden/ Robert Havlin) and Biographer (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan) all need some cut in the ground. Red Cadeaux is clearly the class act here and has been running well all over the world (runner-up in the Dubai World Cup and before that winner of the Hong Kong Vase), but he has a huge weight and his last two runs were disappointing, so we prefer the other two. Three-year-old Testudo (Brian Meehan/ Paul Hanagan) looks dangerous in receipt of a lot of weight.
Another lightly-weighted runner has caught our eye on this card, and that is Pearl Street (Henry Candy( Harry Bentley) in the 3yo handicap at 17.25; he has shown very little on his 4 starts so far, but is well-bred and could be well treated here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tea In Transvaal - Pretty Flemingo - Sound Of Summer
2. Race: Speedy Approach - Be Ready - Expert
3. Race: Aiken - I`m Your Man - Lost In The Moment
4. Race: Soft Falling Rain - Caspar Netscher - Gregorian
5. Race: Democretes - Glen Moss - Dance And Dance
6. Race: Thomas Hobson - Dark Emerald - Jabhaat
7. Race: Hi Note - Chocolate Block - Aldwick Bay

listed race at Newbury

the only black type race at today´s 6 meetings is the listed event for 2yo fillies at 16.55 CET at Newbury. This race over the minimum distance of 5 furlongs has attracted some speedy types, notably Lilbourne Lass (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Wind Fire (David Brown/ Ryan Moore). The former has been first or second on all her five starts and was an easy winner of a minor event on Sunday, but her best race was over this CD when she was runner-up in a huge field for a valuable sales race. However we just prefer Qatari-owned Wind Fire. whose close third at Royal Ascot looks the best form on offer here. We also like Assembly (William Haggas/ Kieren Falloon), who has bottom weight in the 3yo handicap here at 17.30 here and looks well handicapped, while Fallon can follow up half an hour later on Godolphin´s Saddaqa in a maiden race for 3yo fillies.
Godolphin can also take the 3yo maiden at Nottingham with Thouwra (Mickael Barzalona), who is certainly overdue for a win; the son of classic winner Cape Verdi has already been runner-up 5 times in 6 starts. The Maktoum family are also strongly represented in the 10 furlongs maiden at 17.20 at Newcastle, where there are 3 Godolphins and 2 Hamdan runners in the field; Desert Wings (Charlie Appleby/ Ahmed Ajtebi) could be the answer here.
There are some tricky handicaps at Newmarket this evening. Piazza San Pietro (Zoe Davison/ Neil Callan) has not won for over two years, but we are sure he will score again soon off this handicap rating -possibly here at 19.00. Another longshot worth a small each-way bet could be Alice´s Dancer (William Muir/ Dougie Costello) in the 7 furlongs fillies handicap at 21.05; she won the race last year off a similar weight. Irish racing comes from Tramore this evening, where all races are over 1 1/2 miles or further. Dermot Weld has hit top form and can win the rated race for 3yo´s at 19.20 with top-weight Magnolia Ridge (Liam Roche).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Pupil - Eye Contact - Ehtifaal
2. Race: Barley Mow - Zerfaal - Glebe Spirit
3. Race: Mabait - Balducci - Balty Boys
4. Race: Continuum - Statutory - Poyle Thomas
5. Race: Wind Fire - Lilbourne Lass - Abbakova
6. Race: Assembly - Aye Aye Skipper - Grand Denial
7. Race: Saddaqa - Archive - Bonanza Creek
8. Race: Fly Haaf - Balmoral Castle - Malih

Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury

The best race in the U.K. today is the Group Three Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury at 16.55 CET, also over a mile (another senseless clash!). This is Salisbury´s most valuable race of the year, and has been won several times by Andrew Balding. He now saddles Highland Knight (David Probert), who was a close third last year to his stable companion Tullius and followed up by winning at Baden-Baden. The Oettingen-Rennen could be on his programme again if he runs well today, as we expect. According to the ratings, the one he had to beat is Afsare (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni), but we don´t fancy this one over this distance ; he is best at ten furlongs and it is more than 3 years since he ran over this short a trip. The opposite is true of Professor (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who is moving up from 6 furlongs. Highland Knight stays further, but he is best at a mile and should be returned the winner over this trip today.
There is also a decent card at Newmarket this afternoon, with some very competitive handicaps. Seek Again (John Gosden/ William Buick) contests the 7 furlongs handovap for 3yo´s at 17.20; despite the small field, this is a hot little race and, as he has not run since October, we prefer Gold Hunter (Saeed bin Suroor/ Paul Hanagan), a close fourth over 6 furlongs here last time but probably better at today´s trip. Another one coming off a long break is Flow (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally), who looks to have very lenient weight over 10 furlongs at 15.40. Cecil has already shown that she can get one ready, and we expect her and Queally to complete a double with Morpheus in the mile handicap for 3yo´s at 17.50; he has top weight here and while he is nowhere near as classy as his siblings (Frankel et al!) he should be good enough to score in this grade.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Crystal Nymph - Starlight Serenade - Tubeanie
2. Race: Jersey Brown - Bright Cecily - Warrendale
3. Race: It`s Taboo - Paradise Watch - Perfect Muse
4. Race: Prospera - Bantam - Pivotal Silence
5. Race: Afsare - Highland Knight - Professor
6. Race: My Own Way Home - Tregereth - Commandingpresence
7. Race: Lady Pimpernel - Lion Beacon - Bee Jay Kay

group race in Ireland this evening

lots of racing today with 8 meetings (including an Arab meeting at Newbury, on which most bookmakers will not be taking bets), but pride of place goes to the Irish meeting at Leopardstown this evening, featuring the Group Three Desmond Stakes over a mile at 20.25 CET. Although there are 10 runners lining up, this looks a two horse race, with Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ Johnny Murtagh) and Darwin (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) clear top-rated and well clear on all known form. Gordon Lord Byron is a genuine Group One performer, winning the Foret last season, and recently third at Deauville to the super-smart Moonlight Cloud, but he is best at 7 furlongs and this distance may find him out. He has already met Darwin, who beat him easily enough at the Curragh last month, although now worse off at the weights. Darwin, who was trained last year in the US by Todd Pletcher, has only run 4 times and has clear potential for improvement, and we expect him to win.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Three D Alexander - Trikala - Vallado
2. Race: Cottrell - Sophies Echo - So Devoted
3. Race: Polished Rock - Carried - Irish Bulletin
4. Race: Urban Moon - Kingfisher - Orchestra
5. Race: Darwin - Gordon Lord Byron - Custom Cut
6. Race: Rock Critic - Eastern Rules - Maundy Money
7. Race: Acting Talent - Il Palazzo - Nymph

two listed races today

although the overall quality of racing at today´s six meetings is very low, there are two listed races - at Salisbury at 16.55 CET and in Ireland at Gowran Park at 19.55. Both are for fillies and mares only and they are almost identical distances around ten furlongs, which seems rather unnecessary, but they have both attracted competitive fields.


Aidan O´Brien -needless to say- is strongly represented in the Irish race with 3 runners; son Joseph partners Say, who is clearly the stable´s number one and also top-rated. She was well beaten in the Oaks, but ran well last time when runner-up in a Group race at the Curragh and this form should suffice. Along Came Caswey (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) looks best of the older horses; she is a consistent performer at this level and is unbeaten in two starts at this track. The dark horse in the field is the Aga Khan´s Sinaniya (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh), who won a maiden at the Curragh in June last year but has not been seen since. Her experienced trainer would not be running her unless he thought that she was good enough to take part, but Say has the form in the book and has to be the selection.

Bana Wu (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) is top-rated at Salisbury; she has finished in the money on all her 2013 starts but does not win very often. For those looking for longshot value, we recommend Semayyel (Clive Brittain/ Freddie Tylicki), who had no chance last time in the Group One Nassau Stakes; in fact she has been well beaten on all her recent starts, but we have no forgotten that she won a listed race last year at odds of 125-1 and she could well run well again today. However the likeliest winner is the much improved Rock Choir (William Haggas/ Andrea Atzeni), who has won her last two races in good style and can successfully take this rise in class.
Her owner-breeder, Cheveley Park Stud, look set for a good day; they can also win the 2yo maiden at Salisbury at 15.20 with Showpiece (Richard Hannon/ Ryan Moore) and also the 3yo handicap here over a mile at 16.´20 with Russian Realm (Sir Michael Stoute/ Moore), who seems extremely well treated on her first run in a handicap. Cheveley Park can also score twice at Kempton´s evening meeting, with Lyric Piece (Sir Mark Prescott/ Tim Clark) in the apprentice handicap at 19.15, and with well-bred debutant Adore (Stoute/ Moore) in the maiden race for 2yo fillies at 20.15.

Betting forecast Gowran Park:
1. Race: Mekong River - Tithonus - So So Far
2. Race: Bluebell - Princess Aloof - Mahon Falls
3. Race: What Style - Plinth - Leah Claire
4. Race: Say - Along Came Casey - Sinaniya
5. Race: Castle Guest - Teoirim - Tropical Mist
6. Race: Antiquus - Confident Cub - Passagere
7. Race: Laviniad - A Star Is Born - Roman Romance

4 poor meetings today

a very poor card this afternoon at Carlisle, where we expect Sir Mark Prescott and his good claimer Rosie Jessop to complete a quick hat-trick with Threetimesalady in the 2yo handicap over 5 furlongs at 16.15 CET. All her races have been over 6 furlongs, but this step down in distance should present no problems. Another filly, Pull The Plug (Declan Carroll/ Neil Farley) looks the main danger; she won her only start at odds of 66-1 at Wolverhampton last month but won´t be that price today. She could be useful, but Threetimesalady looks a typical Prescott improver and could well run up a sequence.
There is much better racing this evening at Nottingham, where the 5 furlongs conditions race at 20.05 has attracted some genuine group race performers, including Prohibit (Robert Cowell/ Jim Crowley), who won the KIng´s Stand in 2011; however he has been well below form so far this year and we prefer stable companion Pearl Acclaim (Jamie Spencer). Definightly (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) and 3yo Dutch Masterpiece (Gary Moore/ Sean Levey) are interesting runners, especially the latter who has won 5 of his 8 starts and looks well up to group standard, but both would probably prefer more ease in the ground than they are likely to find today. Under the circumstanes, the safest bet is possibly Elusivity (David O´Meara/ Tom Queally) who has been running well, but without much success, in the top sprints this season. The 1 3/4 miles handicap here at 19.35 is another decent race. Lightly-raced Fledged (John Gosden/ William Buick) is likely to start a hot favourite here; he won a goo d maiden at Lingfield, where the first two pulled 13 lengths clear of the field, but he has been given quite a demanding rating for that success. We shall take a chance on Muntasir (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), who has been dropped in the weights after finishing last on both 2013 starts. However they were in the early summer and the Godolphin stable is in much better form now; he stays well and has a definite chance on his 2013 form.
There is also N.H. racing at Worcester this afternoon and Stratford this evening; the two courses are not far apart, and several jockeys will be riding at both tracks, including Tony McCoy, who we expect to win several races. Paul Nicholls is very careful with his summer runners and Captain Kelly (Ryan Mahon) in the novice chase at Worcester at 14.30 is his only runner of the day. He has won twice over hurdles this summer and won his first chase very easily over this CD; we expect him to score again, although Victor Leudorum (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily), who has also won a chase already, was much higher-rated over hurdles and could be a big danger. There are some promising types engaged in the maiden hurdle at 18.20 at Stratford; we shall take a chance here with debutant Dazinski (Mark Tompkins/ Colin Bolger), who has won 5 times on the flat.

Betting forecast Nottingham:
1. Race: Value - Chess Valley - Dont Have It Then
2. Race: Brave Boy - Wee Jean - Harwoods Volante
3. Race: Pilates - Our Sweet Art - Clock Opera
4. Race: Fledged - Montjess - Muntasir
5. Race: Elusivity - Stepper Point - Definightly
6. Race: Amenable - Best Be Careful - Beau Mistral
7. Race: Minority Interest - Archelao - Market Puzzle

5 poor meetings today

Normal fare for a Monday today, poor racing at Ayr and Wolverhampton (a.w.) this afternoon, and this evening at Windsor and Thirsk, with a mixed meeting in Ireland, where there are 3 flat races and 4 over hurdles at Ballinrobe. The "best" race of the day is the class 3 handicap over 10 furlongs at 18.00 CET at Ayr, where Awake My Soul (David O´Meara/ Julie Burke), a CD winner 2 months ago, has top-weight. However he ran badly on Saturday and we much prefer the more lightly-weighted Kashmir Peak (John Quinn/ Matt O´Connell) -also a decent hurdler- and the only 3yo in the field Desert Revolution (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), who has shown definite promise in his 3 starts so far and was not beaten far in a much tougher handicap at Glorious Goodwood last time. The Johnston stable continues in top form, and so does Sir Mark Prescott, both of whose runners here, Charlotte´s Day at 15.30 and Szabo´s Art at 17.30 (Luke Morris the jockey on both) can make the long journey back to Newm arket with a win under their belts.

O´Meara and Johnston are also in opposition in Wolverhampton´s main event, a handicap over 8 1/2 furlongs at 17.45.´The former saddles top-weight Classic Colori (DH Bergin), who always goes well at this track, but again we prefer the Johnston runner Fraserburgh (Silvestre de Sousa), who has gone up 5 lbs for an easy win at Carlisle a fortnight ago.

All eyes will be on Richard Hughes at Windsor this evening after he rode 5 successive winners at the track yesterday. He has rides in all 6 races and should not go home without a winner or two. He looks almost certain to be champion jockeys again this year, but his main rival Ryan Moore will not give up without a fight and arguably has better rides this evening. In the 10 furlongs handicap at 20.40 Hughes partners the Queen´s Princes´s Trust for Richard Hannon, but at these weights we prefer Moore´s Mount, Jeremy Noseda´s Regal Silk, an easy CD winner 3 weeks ago.

Our main fancy at Thirsk is Angus Og (Elaine Burke/ Joey Haynes) in the 5 furlongs handicap at 20.00. Burke is another trainer in good form and has booked an excellent claimer for this distance specialist. There could be a couple of German-bred winners at Ballinrobe, as we like Apisata (M Torrens/ DM Grant) in the 1 3/4 miles handicap at 19.15 and Alileo (Willie and Emmet Mullins) in the maiden hurdle at 19.50.

O´Brien benefit at the Curragh

As usual, the U.K. meetings today are very minor, but there is an excellent card at the Curragh. Aidan O´Brien has dominated the Irish season so far and we expect this to continue as he has strong prospects of winning at least 3 of the 4 group races. Main Event is the Grpup One Phoenis Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.45 CET, the first European Group One of the season for 2yo´s. O´Brien has 2 of the 6 runners, with his son Joseph on War Command, who is likely to go off at odds-on after his excellent display at Royal Ascot, when he was the least-fancied of the stable´s runners in the Coventry Stakes but spreadeagled the field to win by 6 lengths. He is as a result currently the top-rated 2yo in Eiurope and it will be a shock if he is beaten today. Stable companion Wilshire Boulevard (Seamus Heffernan) and Sudirman (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan), winner of the Railway Stakes over this CD, are the two for the minor places.

O´Brien has 3 of the 7 runners in the Group Two Debutante Stakes for 2yo fillies at 16.15 and again his son Joseph is on the hot favourite Tapestry, who won her only start in good style and is already second favourite for the 2014 1000 Guineas. Stable companions Minorette (Marc Hussey) and Perhaps (Heffernan) could make it a clean sweep for the stable.

The O´Brien´s can complete a hat-trick with ex-Australian Sea Siren in the Phoenix Sprint over 6 furlongs at 17.15. She made her European debut in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot, where she finished in mid-field, but made no mistake when easily winning on her Irish debut at Fairyhouse from Russian Soul (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley), who won again this week. However the main danger is clearly Slade Power (Eddie Lynam/ Lordan), who has run some excellent races in top company this season. He actually finished in front of Sea Siren at Royal Ascot, but we do not believe that he can concede 6 lbs to the mare now.

The one group race which may possibly not go to the O´Brien stable is the Group Three Royal Whip over 10 furlongs at 15.45, in which they are represented by top handicapper Fortify. Despite having only 5 runners, this looks a very tricky race, but in theory Scintillula (Jim Bolger/ Robbie Cleary). Like many runners from this stable, she is having to work hard for her living (see also Dawn Approach today at Deauville!), and had a hard race only on Thursday, while this is her 4th start in 3 weeks. However she has clearly the best form in the field and if still fresh enough, should win.

Saturday overkill

Another typical Saturday in the U.K. with too much high class racing after very low level stuff all week, and also tomorrow. Quite apart from the Shergar Cup, there are group races at Newmarket (sponsored by the German racing industry) and Haydock. The star of the Show, potentially at least, is Teleprompter (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who runs in the Rose of Lancaster Stakes over 10 furlongs at 15.55 CET at Haydock.

The one-time Derby favourite is still regarded as a champion in waiting and ought to win this easily, if he is anywhere near as good as he is cracked up to be. We won´t bet on him however, as he still has to prove it and will be at very short odds.The valuable handicap over the same distance here at 15.20 is a better betting race and our fancy is Educate (Ismail Mohammed/ Johnny Murtagh).

Godolphin have a good record in the Sweet Solera Stakes for 2yo fillies at 16.35 at Newmarket and now have 2 of the 8 runners, with preference for Wedding Ring (Charlie Appleby/ Jamie Spencer). Andrew Balding is in good form and he can land a double here with Ningara at 16.00 and Highland Colori at 17.10, both ridden by David Probert. The same team has a very interesting runner in the 2yo unraced fillies race at 15.25- Casual Smile, by Sea the Stars out of Oaks winner Casual Look.

Andrasch Starke in Shergar Cup at Ascot

Today´s Shergar Cup at Ascot has six very open handicaps on the card and there are 4 teams representing the U.K. and Ireland (James Doyle, Kieren Fallon, Kevin Manning); rest of Europe (Ioritz Mendizibal, Gerald Mossé and our German Champion Andrasch Starke); rest of the world (Yasuwari Iwata, Joao Moreira and Gary Stevens) and a Girls Team (Lisa Allpress, Cathy Gannon, and Rosie Napravnik). They will be wearing team colours, which will make life difficult for the commentators. Points are awarded on the following basis: 15 for the winner, then 10, 7, 5 and 3 for the fifth home.

There will be trophies for the winning team and also the top individual scorer. As the races are all worth 30,000 GBP this could be quite a lucrative afternoon for a jockey riding a couple of winners.

Obviously we hope that Starke does well His best chance is probably Brian Ellison´s Racy in the 5 furlongs dash at 15.05 CET. Racy was fourth in last week´s Stewards Cup and was earlier runner-up in a huge field over this CD and a repetition of those forms would give him a a good chance here.

Starke also had a decent chance on Richard Hannon´s Tassel in the concluding 6 furlongs handicap at 16.50, despite her rather misleading form figures. Mark Johnston saddles five runners - half the field - in the 1 1/2 mile handicap for 3yo´s at 15.50, with Starke on the lightly-raced Statutory; the trainer seems to prefer Bushel (Kieren Fallon), but Broughton (Gary Stevens)-once the highest priced yearling at the Baden-Baden sales - is also a possibility in our view and so is the Irish top-weight Cardinal Palace (JJ Murphy/ Cahy Gannon).

Starke also teams up wth Good Morning Star for Johnston in the 2 mile handicap at 14.30; this one is very inconsistent, but good enough on his day. but this looks a very tough race. Rod Millman´s Icebuster is another outsider for Starke at 16.15 in another very tricky event; there is a big tip here for Willie Wagtail (Ed Walker/ Kieren Fallon).

listed races this evening in Ireland

once again, the best racing is staged in Ireland, where Tipperary has two listed races this evening. The race over 5 furlongs at 18.35 Looks wide open. Cape of Approval (Tommy Stack/ Willie Lee) is arguably the best horse in the race and has won his last two races, including a ,listed race at Cork in June, but he is penalised as a result. At These weights we prefer the 3yo filly Boston Rocker (Eddie Lynam/ Declan McDonogh), who has been placed on her 2013 starts, and Russian Soul (Mike Halford/ Shane Foley), whose third last form, when runner-up to Slade Power in a Curragh Group Three should be good enough to win this. We cannot fancy Aidan O´Brien´s Infanta Branca (Joseph O´Brien), who has been running over longer distances, but the O´Brien´s can take the 2yo event at hour later with Indian Maharaja, who won her only start in good style. 5 of the 6 runners here are winners, the exception being Jim Bolger´s Ceisteach (Kevin Manning), who is making her debut in good company; h owever this trainer knows what he is doing, so she must be respected.
The best race in the U.K. is the 1 3/4 handicap at 16.00 at Musselburgh, with some decent performers engaged. Top-weight Tropical Beat (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) was close to listed class when trained by John Gosden, but is now coming off a long break. O Ma Lad (John Quinn/ Matt O´Connell) has won both 2013 starts, but they were back in the spring, while Hawdyerwheest (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee), also going for a hat-trick, looks more dangerous moving up in grade but off a low weight. However our main preference is for German-bred Noble Alan (Nicky Richards/ Paul Mulrennan), a useful hurdler who has run well in strong company on both his starts this season.
Brighton´s big August meeting ends today, and yesterday´s big winner Beacon Lady (William Knight/ Oisin Murphy) is expected to make a quick reappearance under a huge weight in the 1 1/2 miles handicap at 15.40. If she does and is in the same mood, she can hardly lose here as she has a fantastic CD record and easily beat much better opposition yesterday, for which she has only a 6 lbs penalty.

Betting forecast Tipperary:
1. Race: Hurryupharriet - Treadstone - Punch Bag
2. Race: Russian Soul - Boston Rocker - Cape Of Approval
3. Race: My Good Brother - Ucanchoose - Judies Child
4. Race: Ceisteach - Boom The Groom - Captain`s Affair
5. Race: Craic Agus Spraoi - Kabjoy - Adelana
6. Race: Apache Gold - Khelino - Diamond Daze
7. Race: Positive Vibes - Killourney Empress - Greenbelt Star

Group race in Ireland this evening

Once again there is a group race in Ireland this evening, the Ballyroan Stakes over 1 1/2 miles at Leopardstown at 19.45 CET. Only 4 runners, but still an interesting event with 3 of them very smart: Ernest Hemingway (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), Royal Diamond (Johnny Murtagh) and Scintillula (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning). Royal Diamond won the Irish St. Leger last year, but was well beaten by Ernest Hemingway in the Curragh Cup at the end of June; he is 6 lbs better off, but this may not be enough to reverse the form with the O´Brien runner, who ran in last year´s Arc (as pacemaker for Camelot). As a 3yo filly, Scintillula is getting quite a lot of weight; she was a close fourth in the Irish Oaks, but then won over 9 furlongs, so it is not clear if this is her ideal distance. Despite the weight, we go along with Ernest Hemingway, expected to be a leading contender for the autumn´s big staying races.

There are 8 meetings all told in the U.K. and Ireland today, but it is difficult to drum up any enthusiasm for the other 7 cards. Brighton continues its big August meeting with a 1 1/2 mile handicap at 16.50. Edwyn Ralph (David Simcock/ Ryan Moore) is the only 3yo in the field, but we are not certain that he can cope with the CD specialists in the field such as Ethics Girl (John Berry/ Adam Kirby), who won this race last year, Laser Blazer (Jeremy Gask/ Jim Crowley) and especially Beacon Lady (William Knight/ Darren Egan), who has a really excellent record at this track. However Ryan Moore can take the following fillies handicap at 17.20 with Love Magic, whose Trainer Sir Michael Stoute can also take Yarmouth´s fillies handicap at 17.00 with the very well-bred Dream Wild. Bop It (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope), a half-brother to Hoof It and a close 4th of 20 at York last time is the obvious favourite for the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.10 at Haydock.

lots of handicaps

no black type races at any of today´s 6 meetings, which are all dominated by handicaps, and mainly at a very low level. It is not very often that Brighton stages the most valuable races of the day, but that is the case, with the Sussex seaside town featuring the Brighton Mile Challenge at 16.50 CET. This looks wide open, but we will take a chance on Toga Tiger (Jeremy Gask/ Fergus Sweeney) who won 3 races here last summer. He also won 3 races on the all-weather during the winter, so is no longer particularly well handicapped, but a return to the coast could inspire him to win again. The 7 furlongs handicap for fillies half an hour later is another decent race, in which Floating Along (William Haggas/ Richard Hughes), Al Manaal (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Finesse (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley) renew rivalry after taking the first 3 places in a similar race at Warwick a month ago. At these weights, there should be nothing much between them, but we give slight prefe rence to the Godolphin runner, who is lightly-raced and already a winner over this CD.
At Pontefract, the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 16.30 is the main event and another tricky race. Northside Prince (Alan Swinbank/ Shane Kelly) has not won for 3 years, but is coming down in the weights and usually runs well at this track; we make him an interesting each-way shot.
At Newcastle, Dream Walker (Brian Ellison/ Jacob Butterfield) will be a strong favourite ovet 7 furlongs at 16.10; he has won both his starts since moving to this stable, including with this young apprentice up, and goes well on this soft ground. He won´t pay much, but looks a good thing to complete the hat-trick.
Frankie Dettori is back in form and travels to Yarmouth this evening for just two rides, including John O´Shea´s Swendab at 20.20; he has a 6 lbs penalty for winning at Newbury on Sunday with Frankie up, but can go in again; Sleepy Blue Ocean (John Balding( Michael Murphy) won 3 races in July, all over this trip of 5 furlongs and all on firm going, and looks the obvious danger.
There could be some useful performers in the 3yo mile handicap at 21.30 on Kempton´s all-weather card, where all 7 runners have good recent form to their credit; our choice is the lightly-raced Quest for More (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle).
In Ireland, the grandly-named Connacht Oaks at 20.10 at Sligo is the main event, but it is just an ordinary fillies handicap over 1 1/2 miles. 16yo Connor King rode 4 winners yesterday at Cork and partners top-weight Strandfield Lady, who is going for a hat-trick, but at these weights we prefer bottom-weight Keeping (Ger Lyons/ Ian Brennan), who is 4 lbs better off for half a length.

Betting forecast Newcastle:
1. Race: Atlantic Affair - Heskin - Sakhalin Star
2. Race: Attention Seaker - Harvey`S Hope - Moheebb
3. Race: Dream Walker - Strong Man - My Single Malt
4. Race: Burren View Lady - Captain Royale - Alluring Star
5. Race: Foxy Clarets - Thornaby Princess - Shyron
6. Race: Scentpastparadise - Ichimoku - Balinka
7. Race: Save The Bees - Ptolomeos - Amazing Blue Sky
8. Race: Bygones For Coins - Elizabeth Coffee - Diddy Eric

group race in Ireland this evening

easily the best racing of the day takes place this evening in Ireland. Cork, where they were running over hurdles yesterday, now has a good flat card, while the jumping boys move on to Roscommon.
Main event is the Give Thanks Stakes, a Group Three for fillies over 1 1/2 miles at 20.05 at Cork. Venus de Milo (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) won two minor races in good style and then stepped up to Group One company to run an excellent second in the Irish Oaks 17 days ago. A repeat of that form would make her virtually unbeatable here. Midnight Soprano (Peter Deegan(/ MM Monaghan), a tough and consistent 6yo, won a similar race here in June and is the obvious one for the forecast. O´Brien also has a good chance of taking the listed race over a mile at 19.35. He saddles two runners here, Indian Chief (Joseph) and Snow Queen (Seamus Heffernan), with clear preference for the former, who finished third in the Dante Stakes; he then ran below that form at Royal Ascot, but over this shorter trip and on easier ground is expected to do much better this time.
At Roscommon, it is probably the safest policy to stick to the in-form team of trainer Tony Martin and jockey Ruby Walsh; they Combine three times this evening, at 18.50 with Garedelito, half an hour later with Corrick Bridge, and at 20.50 with Easy Vic. There are large fields each time, and they are no certainties, but it will be disappointing if they go home without a winner.
The four U.K. cards are all very poor. The best race is the 5 furlongs handicap at 20.40 at Ripon, which looks wide open. Most of these have met before, including the first 3 from a similar race at Pontefract 17 days ago, and the first two from this race last year. Our tentative choice is Rylee Mooch (Richard Guest/ Connor Beasley), who led for a long way in a hotter race at Ascot last time.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Candy Apples - Treadstone - Wateed
2. Race: Harpist - Penny Serenade - Peggy`s Leg
3. Race: Jeangeorges - Patrickswell - Almadaa
4. Race: Indian Chief - Fort Knox - Snow Queen
5. Race: Bunairgead - Midnight Soprano - Beach Of Falesa
6. Race: Crouching Harry - Crystal Earth - Hootie
7. Race: Mahrajaan - Gabh Mo Leithsceal - Hangar Five
8. Race: Lake District - Inkerman - Lateral Thinking


We don ´t normally bother with class 6 handicaps, but the 1 3/4 miles race at 16.30 at Ffos Las is interesting, as 4 of the runners are German-bred; the all have good pedigrees - 3 of them in fact bred by Schlenderhan- but have for various reasons not lived up to ther aristocratic breeding. We shall take a chance with Cabuchon (David Evans/ DJ Bates), out of Group One winner Catella, who recently finished third after a break of 2 1/2 years. If he does not bounce, he must surely be able to run well off an insultingly low rating.

ladies night at Carlisle

6 meetings today but nothing of much quality - the most interesting card is this evening at Carlisle, where all six races are for lady riders (both amateur and professional) . With the exception of Hayley Turner (injured), all the top ladies are taking part, and Lucy Alexander - better known as a jumps jockey but also good enough on the flat- could be the most successful rider. She can win the opening 5 furlongs handicap at 19.15 CET on VIolet Jordan´s Amenable and can follow up half an hour later for Mike Todhunter on Miss Macnamara. She has anotnher good Chance on Planetex for John Quinn at 19.15, but here we prefer the very experienced 11yo Beckermet (135 career starts), who is well handicapped on his best form and can win for Ruth Carr and the equally experienced Serena Brotherton.
The best race at Ripon is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.45, which looks very tricky. In-form trainer James Fanshawe saddles Emilio Largo (Freddie Tylicki), down in grade after a couple of disappointing efforts, but Pearl Ice (Barron/ Graham Gibbons) could be a big danger; he has also been out of form but won over this CD 14 months ago and has now been dropped in the weights.
Charlie Appleby has made a great start to his career as Godolphin trainer and can have a couple more winners today with Satwa Story in the 3yo maiden at Wolverhampton at 17.00 and Apparently in the 10 furlongs maiden at 21.00 this evening at Windsor - Mickael Barzalona rides them both.
There are also two Irish meetings, an all-hurdles card at Cork - where Ruby Walsh should again be the jockey to follow- and on the flat at Naas. Aidan O´Brien has two interesting 2yo´s running here, with his son Joseph on board - Great White Eagle at 15.05 and Juniper Tree an hour later. There are some well-bred opponents, but it would be no surprise to see them both score.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Amenable - Busy Bimbo - Wicked Wilma
2. Race: Sergeant Pink - Miss Macnamara - Bygones For Coins
3. Race: Beckermet - Planetex - Just The Tonic
4. Race: Toto Skyllachy - Extraterrestrial - Hydrant
5. Race: Lady Chaparral - Regal Swain - Hot Rod Mamma
6. Race: Call Of Duty - Rosselli - Royal Sea

listed races at Chester and Newbury

after a wonderful week´s racing at Glorious Goodwood, racing moves down a gear today, but there are two decent listed events, at Chester over 6 furlongs at 16.05 CET and at Newbury for fillies over a mile and a half at 16.50. In the latter race, Songbird (Lady Cecil/ Frankie Dettori) is likely to start a hot favourite; she was won both her races in promising style, and although this is a leap in class, there does not appear to be much strength in the opposition, of whom Seal of Approval (James Fanshawe/ George Baker) and Kikonga ((Luca Cumani/ Kirsty Milczarek) look the most dangerous.
Local trainer Tom Dascombe has his string in good form and he can take the Chester race with Ballista (Richard Kingscote), who has two wins over this tricky course to his credit. They were over 5 furlongs, but he also gets this trip and is well drawn. Godolphin´s ex-Australian Soul (Saeed bin Suroor/ Kieren Fallon) is top-rated here, but he made no show on his only start this year - admittedly in a far stronger race - and is drawn on the outside. Khubala (Hugo Palmer/ Martin Dwyer) ran well in a big York handicap last time and could be more of a danger.
There is also N.H. racing at Market Rasen and Galway - the final day of their Festival Meeting. Tony Martin and Ruby Walsh look the team to follow at the Irish track.

Betting forecast Chester:
1. Race: Gallic Breeze - Solo Hunter - Mfiftythreedotcom
2. Race: Ascription - Lord Of The Dance - Shamdarley
3. Race: Soul - Excelette - Ballista
4. Race: Zaraee - Hatha Hooh - Intermath
5. Race: Tobougg Happy - Party Ruler - Boogangoo
6. Race: Evangelist - Topamichi - Rhombus
7. Race: Kashmir Peak - Zenafire - Villa Royale

Galway: day six

the Galway Festival goes into its sixth day with the card dominated by handicaps. The big race is the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.10 CET, and although Dermot Weld has not been quite as all-conquering as is usually the case here, we shall keep the faith and select his Stuccodor (Pat Smullen), who has won his last 5 races. He has gone up a lot in the weights, but will like the heavy going and can win again. British raider Pintura (Kevin Ryan/ Declan McDonogh) won this race last year and is the obvious danger, although Weld´s other runner Northern Rocked (Liam Roche) also has possibilities.
The two races for 2yo´s that open card should lie between Weld and Aidan O´Brien and we are hoping for a Weld double here with Leafcutter (Smullen) at 15.00 and Mahon Falls (Roche) at 15.35.
The only jumps race today is the handicap hurdle over 2 3/4 miles at 16.45. Call me Bubbles (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), who ran on the flat here earlier in the week, looks very dangerous, but we shall take a chance on German-bred Novarov (JF O´Shea/ SG McDermott), who won over 3 miles at this meeting last year, when the going was equally bad. Landero also has a German pedigree, but he is closely related to Lando, so we do not think we will go on the ground. However another German-bred with a chance is Apisata (Mervyn Torrens/ DM Grant) over 1 172 miles at 17.55; she is out of the German listed winner Api Sa.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Iniesta - Keyword - Healthy Habits
2. Race: Mahon Falls - Dove Mountain - Princess Aloof
3. Race: - -
4. Race: - -
5. Race: Toufan Express - Vasoni - Capitol Hill
6. Race: Magnolia Ridge - Time To Work - Face Value
7. Race: Sharp Crisp Air - Exotic - Smolensk
8. Race: Busted Tycoon - Raggletagglegypsy - Ibsen

Glorious Goodwood: final day

Goodwood´s big meeting ends today with an extremely strong card, but a minefield for punters with very large fields and some very competitive races. The main event is the Group One Nassau Stakes at 16.15 CET, where Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is the clear favourite. after winning the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes; last time out she was controversially beaten by Elusive Kate, who went on to an easy Deauville Group One success. However she has never run beyond a mile and on pedigree there must be doubts whether she will stay this distance. Just The Judge (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) was behind her both at Ascot and Newmarket - winning the Irish 1000 in between- but she is much more stoutly bred and could well take her revenge. Hot Snap (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally) has not run since disappointing in the 1000, but she looked smart when winning the Nell Gwyn, and as a half-sister to Midday (who won this race twice) should have no problem with the distance. Of the older runners, Sajjhaa (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) would definitely have a chance if she could reproduce her brilliant Meydan form, but for now we prefer Moment in Time (David Simcock/ Jim Crowley), who finished strongly to beat Nymphea and Ambivalent (Roger Varian/ Johnny Murtagh) - both Group One winners since- at Haydock. This is a really hot race and we shall take the favourite on, with Hot Snap, Just the Judge and Moment in Time our three against the field.
The Nassau is the only group race on the card, but the two top 6 furlong handicaps -. the Stewards Cup at 16.50 (28 runners) and the consolation race, the Stewards Sprint at 15.05 (24 runners) are the big betting races and look really difficult. These races are a lottery with luck always playing a major role, but we shall try to make things easier by concentrating on horses drawn low, who would seem to have an advantage. Our three against the field therefore are therefore El Viento (Richard Fahey/ George Chaloner), Out Do (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) and Noverre to Go (Ron Harris/ Cathy Gannon) at 15.05, and York Glory (Kevin Ryan/ Jamie Spencer), last year´s winner Hawkeyethenoo (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) and Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/ Cathy Gannon)- drawn in the middle, but that coukd be o.k.- at 16.50.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Picture Dealer - Above Standard - Enrol
2. Race: Bold Sniper - Havana Cooler - Pether`s Moon
3. Race: Sky Lantern - Integral - Just The Judge
4. Race: Tropics - York Glory - Shropshire
5. Race: War Spirit - After The Goldrush - Snow Trouble
6. Race: Mezel - Art Official - Our Queenie
7. Race: Holley Shiftwell - Lexington Place - Extrasolar

Galway: day five

the Galway Festival continues this evening on very heavy going - so bad in fact that the starting stalls cannot be used and all races will be started by flag.
Once again we expect Dermot Weld to be among the winners - 8 of them so far this week- and Backdrop at 18.05 CET, Calibrate at 19.15 and Unaccompanied, all ridden by Pat Smullen, look likely winners at short prices. His runners will start at better odds in the handicaps, but of course they do not look quite so easy, but we still expect Secret Locket.at 18.40 and Show Court in the top race of the day at 19.,50, both with Smullen, and over jumps, Dancers Dilemma (Robbie McNamara) at 21.25. Unaccompanied is probably the best thing of the day; this smart dual purpose performer loves heavy ground and is very well treated by the race conditions. Military Bowl (Tony Martin/ Fran Berry) and Justification (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) are the two for the places here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Trikala - Backdrop - Hidden Oasis
2. Race: Woodsophiesmile - Snakes And Ladders - Janna`s Jingle
3. Race: Agreement - Calibrate - Roman Romance
4. Race: Show Court - Kingdom - Plinth
5. Race: Unaccompanied - Military Bowl - Justification
6. Race: Another Ambition - Our Girl Lucy - Churchfield Champ
7. Race: Dancers Dilemma - Treacy Hotels Boy - Admiral Hawke

Glorious Goodwood: day four

there has been a bit of rain this morning at Goodwood, but the going is still apparenttly good, good to firm. The going could be quite significant today, with several horses hoping for more rain and several for faster ground.
Although there are 4 Group races on today´s card, the most valuable race and also the big betting race is the Betfred Mile at 16.05 CET. Even with 3 non-runners (so far) this is still a very difficult race and the draw is also a major factor here, as a low number is clearly a big advantage. Rain would definitely help the chances of Fire Ship (William Knight/ Neil Callan) and Cape Peron (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) - both well drawn, while we also like the chances of Windhoek (Mark Johnston/ Franny Norton) - one of 3 runners from his in-form stable- and Irish runner Brendan Brackan (Gery Lyons/ Collin Keane), a very easy winner at Galway on Tuesday who only carries a 3 lbs penalty here, but goes up 13 lbs in future handicaps.
The card opens with the Glorious Stakes for older horses over 1 1/2 miles at 14.55. The best runners here are Aiken (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Masterstroke (Charlie Appleby/ Micjael Barzalona), neither of whom has run since last October. We prefer the Godolphin horse who was third in the Arc when still trained by André Fabre, but as a son of Monsun can be expected to show further improvement. Forgotten Voice (Nicky Henderson/ Johnny Murtagh), a smart hurdler, is a big danger judged on his Royal Ascot form.
The Group Three for 3yo´s over a mile at 1530 looks between Montiridge (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and Tawhid (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), 2nd and 3rd in the Jersey Stakes but both also good enough at this distance. Tawhid was earlier 3rd in the German 2000 Guineas, but Montiridge gets the vote.
The 5 furlongs King George Stakes at 16.40 is as open as any handicap. Oldtimer Borderlescott (Robin Bastiman/ de Siusa) and Masamah (Marco Botti/ Callan) won this in 2010 and 2011, while Spirit Quartz (Robert Cowell/ Jamie Spencer) was runner-up to the smart Australian Ortensia in this last year. They all come into the reckoning again, together with Kingsgate Native (Cowell/ Shane Kelly) and Tickled Pink (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally).
The 7 furlongs race for fillies and mares at 17.50 is another tricky one, with 12 of the 14 runners being 3yo´s. Shuruq (bin Suroor/ de Sousa) is a classic winner, having won the UAE Oaks, but we don´t really believe in her on her British debut this year and prefer Winning Express (Ed McMahon/ Nortomn), 4th in the 1,000 Guineas, and Pavlovsk (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), a bit disappointing at Royal Ascot, but who should be good enough for this.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Aiken - Masterstroke - Lost In The Moment
2. Race: Montiridge - Baltic Knight - Glory Awaits
3. Race: Wentworth - Cape Peron - Dance And Dance
4. Race: Tickled Pink - Swiss Spirit - Smoothtalkinrascal
5. Race: Grecian - Tanseeb - Major Crispies
6. Race: Pavlosk - Winning Express - Shuruq
7. Race: Retirement Plan - Northern Meeting - Goodwood Mirage

Galway: day four

The Galway Festival goes into ist fourth day today with an early start at 14.50 CET. The most valuable race of the day is the Guinness Galway Hurdle, a 2 mile handicap at 17.55 CET with a massive 156,000 euros für the winner (about the same as the 3 Goodwood Group races combined!). With a maximum field of 20, this is a minefield for punters, although they got it right yesterday with the controversial victory of the "right" JP McManus runner.

Jhe has several runners again, and also quite a few trainers have more than a single runner- Willie Mullins has 5, with Ruby Walsh on Pique Sous, Gordon Elliott has 3, in-form Tony Martin two, including Tony McCoy on Thomas Edison, while Galway specialist Dermot Weld also has 2. The most interesting runner is Weld´s Rock Critic (Jason Maguire), who is unbeaten in two starts over hurdles and is also useful on the flat. He is coming off a long break, but has won at the Galway Festival for the last 3 years and will love the very soft ground. The handicapper has given him an extremely high rating for what he has actually achieved, buit we still hope that he can win off this weight.

We also expect Weld to take the best flat race, a listed Event over 7 furlongs for fillies and mares at 16.40 with Yellow Rosebud (Pat Smullen). She was runner-up here last year to Lady Wingshot (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) and was also beaten by the same filly later in the season, but she is better off at the weights now and can take her revenge. Snow Fairy (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) would also have a chance on her best form, but she has become very moody and is not to be trusted.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Spring Heeled - Shake The Bucket - Heaney
2. Race: Rebel Fitz - Sizing Italy - He`S Our Man
3. Race: Fairylike - Maundy Money - Castle Bar Sling
4. Race: Yellow Rosebud - Sendmylovetorose - Hanky Panky
5. Race: Bally Longford - Aranhill Chief - Benemeade
6. Race: Pique Sous - Ted Veale - Rock Critic
7. Race: Greenbelt Star - Treasure The Ridge - Shalaman
8. Race: Dont Tell No One - Goldboy - Estilaam

Goodwood Cup today

The Group Two Goodwood Cup over 2 miles at 16.15 CET is the big race at Glorious Goodwood today and there is a strong German interest in the race, as Altano (Andreas Wöhler/ Eduardo Pedroza) runs here following his good effort when fifth in the Gold Cup at Ascot. Colour Vision (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), to our mind the best of the 3 Godolphin runners here, finished just in front of him then, with Saddler´s Rock (John Oxx/ Declan McDonough) a very disappointing 8th and Number Theory and Repeater further back. Saddler´s Rock won this race last year, from Askar Tau (Marcus Tregoning/ George Baker) and Colour Vision, but does not seem in the same form in 2013. Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Dascombe/ Ruichatrd Kingscote) started favourite for the 2011 German Derby and has some useful form to his credit, wjhile Askar Tau, who runs his best races here, is out of a German mare. Altano, whose trainer is now well-known in the U.K. after Novellist´s brilliant win at Ascot, must have a decent chance, but this looks a tough race., much better than the 2012 eition, and we expect Mount Athos (Luca Cumani/ Jamie Spencer) and Caucus (John Gosden/ William Buick) to be the two to beat. Mount Athos was an unlucky 5th last year in the Melbourne Cup and is being trained for that race again, but could take this one on the way, while the lighly-raced Caucus was not far behind Gold Cup winner Estimate earlier in the season and has an obvious chance on that form.

Charlie Appleby has made an excellent start as the new Godolphin Trainer, and Saeed bin Suroor is probably relieved now that he has only 200 horses running under his name, rather than 400 as before! Appleby won a Group race here yesterday and can score again with Figure of Speech (Mickael Barzalona) in the Group Two Richmond Stakes for 2yo´s at 15.45. He was an excellent runner-up in the July Stakes at Newmarket, which is easily the best form in the race.

There could also be a German-bred winner in the Group Three Lillie Langtry Stakes for fillies and mares over 1 3/4 miles at 16.45, as the Röttgen-bred Wild Coco (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally) is clear top-rated. She does not run very often, but that is no handicap and she took this race last year. Elik (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) looks the main danger, and she also is out of a German mare. This could be another good day for German breeding, as we also fancy Broughton (Mark Johnston/ Franny Norton), once the top-priced yearling at the BBAG sale, in the opening 10 furlongs handicap at 15.15.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Code Of Honor - Ajmany - Tha`ir
2. Race: Figure Of Speech - Saayerr - Miracle Of Medinah
3. Race: Mount Athos - Caucus - Colour Vision
4. Race: Wild Coco - Elik - Souviens Toi
5. Race: Amazing Maria - Remember - Radiator
6. Race: Pythagorean - Homage - Majestic Moon
7. Race: Mean It - Commend - Lord Ofthe Shadows