interesting newcomers at Kempton

a very autumnal look to today´s racing with 3 jumps meetings and a very poor all-weather card at Wolverhampton. There are some small fields at the two U.K. N.H. meetings, but Kempton still offers some good races. The opening novice hurdle at 14.00 CET Dubawi Phantom (John Ferguson/ Mr. JM Quinlan) an easy winner on his hurdling debut at Uttoxeter, forced to concede weight to some useful types, notably Iron Condor (James Eustace/ Mark Bradburne), Plenty Pocket (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) and Zama Zama (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler). However we hope that Dubawi Phantom, almost listed class on the flat, can continue the excllent run of his trainer, better known as Sheikh Mohammed´s bloodstock adviser. The novice hurdle over a longer distance half an hour later is another informative race. Billy Merriott (Nicholls/ Walsh) was runner-up in all 3 bumper starts and is expcted to pay his way over sticks, but the bumper form of Twentyfourcarat (Ian Williams/ Dougie Costello) looks better, while Grabtheglory (Gary and Jamie Moore) has already run well over hurdles. The hadicap hurdle over 2 3/4 miles at 15.40 is another open race. German-bred King of the Night (Nicholls/ Walsh) beat Cockney Trucker (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) by 5 lengths at Newton Abbot last time, but there will be little btween them at the revised weights. However the one to beat is clearly bottom-weight Beyond (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), a good 7th of 33 on the flat in the Cesarewitch last time and very well handicapped over hurdles. There are only 3 runners in the graduation chase at 16.10, where Somersby (Henrietta Knight/ Dominic Elsworth) who failed to live up to expectations last year but was campaigned in top company, can get back on the winning trail.
The Plumpton card is boring by comparison, but we expect Lombok (Gary and Joshua Moore) to follow up his recent CD victory under a penalty in the handicap hurdle at 14.55.
Another recent winner who can follow up under a penalty is Groody Hill (Christy Roche/ Alan Crowe), who landed a huge gamble at Punchestown 5 days ago and can take the handicap chase at 16.15 at Wexford. Our best bet at the Irish meeting is German-bred Glamorous (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power), who made an excellent hurdling debut when a close 3rd of 20 at Cork, and she can take the 4yo hurdle at 14.10.
The Wolverhampton meeting is best left alone, but Paul Hanagan can strengthen his grip on the jockeys championship by winning a couple of races here; Crazy Too at 15.15, Locum at 15.50, Persidha at 16.20 and Gritstone at 18.00 all have decent chances of success.

Betting forecast Kempton:
1. Race: Iron Condor - Dubawi Phantom - Zama Zama
2. Race: Twentyfourcarat - Billy Merriott - Grabtheglory
3. Race: Autumm Spirit - Yvonne Evelyn - Kadouchski
4. Race: Beyond - King Of The Night - Cockney Trucker
5. Race: Somersby - Aiteen Thirtythree - Gee Dee Nen
6. Race: Captain Dash - Iheardu - Handtheprizeover
7. Race: Dancewiththedevil - Reginaldinho - Quiet Whisper

today´s N.H, action

3 jumps meetings today although of much less interest than the flat racing in France and Ireland. At Carlisle,smart hurdler Notus de la Tour /David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) makes his fencing debut at 14.40 CET and if he jumps round safely, should win easily. He won´t pay much however and a better bet could be Extalar (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) to repeat last year´s victory in the 3 mile handicap chase at 15.40. The intermediate chase at 16.15 has a small but decent field, with Ferdy Murphy saddling 3 of the 6 runners. However our choice is Hidden Keel (Charlie Longsdon/ Felix de Giles), whose stable is in great form and who looks much improved, winning 3 of his last 4 starts.
In Huntingdon, Folk Tune (John Quinn/ Dean Pratt) attempts to complete a hat-trick for the trainer and jockey in the claiming hurdle at 14.55. He has been in good form both on the level and over sticks, but may struggle to give the weight to Pobs Trophy (Jake Greenall), one of two runners from the in-form Richard Guest stable. The novice hurdle here at 16.00 looks a poor race. The two penalised horses do not look anything special, and we prefer the lightly-raced Valley Lad (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) and Bowntobebad (Jeremy Scott/ Noel Fehily)
In Ireland, the beginners chase at 16.55 looks the most interesting race at Wexford. There are 15 runners, but we expect the finish to lie between Raptor (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) and Donnas Palm (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry).

Betting forecast Carlisle:
1. Race: Koup De Kanon - Malin Bay - Monkton Vale
2. Race: Notus de la Tour - Stopped Out - Signalman
3. Race: Houston Dynimo - Benefique - Persian Peril
4. Race: Qhilimar - Humbie - Minella Boys
5. Race: Hidden Keel - Gilbarry - Divers
6. Race: French Seventyfive - Nisaal - Catspan
7. Race: Phoenix Returns - Optimist - I Got Sunshine

top 2yo´s at Leopardstown today

the top-rated 2yo race today is the Group One Criterium International, at Saint-Cloud, but the Group Three Killavullen Stakes over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown is arguably the more interesting event. This sees the second start of the most-hyped juvenile of 2011- Born to Sea (John Oxx/ Johnny Murtagh). Born to Sea won his first start, a 6 furlongs listed race at the Curragh, in very promising style, but his main claim to fame is the fact that he is the last foal out of the outstanding Arc winner Urban Sea, the most influential broodmare of the last 50 years. He is thus a half-brother to Sea the Stars, Galileo and other stars so has a lot to live up to. Whether he will ever be as good as his siblings will not be known until next year, but he should at least win today, although Nephrite, one of 3 Aidan O´Brien entries and partnered by son Joseph, looks a serious opponent. He also won his only start over 6 furlongs at the Curragh in impressive manner and however he runs today, look s a colt worth following.
The other big race at Leopardstown is the listed Trigo Stakes over 10 furlongs at 15.30, and the admirable Famous Name (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) will be a hot favourite to win this event for the third time. The only dangers would appear to be the lightly-raced 3yo´s Atlantic Swing (Oxx/ Murtagh) and his own stable companion Zaminast (Pat Shanahan).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Wonderful - Twirl - Princess Highway
2. Race: Born To Sea - Nephrite - Ishvana
3. Race: Mr Red Clubs - Antiquus - Coolnagree
4. Race: Zaminast - Atlantic Swing - Hurricane Havoc
5. Race: Thomasgainsborough - Golden Hill - Fatcatinthehat
6. Race: Fred Fenster - Star Links - Shirley Blake
7. Race: Midnight Music - Sun Disc - Leroy Parker

Top jumpers in action today

The N.H. season really gets under way today with excellent cards at both Wetherby and Ascot, as well as Naas in Ireland. The best race is the Grade Two Charlie Hall Chase over 3 miles 1 furlongs at 16.20 CET at Wetherby, which has attracted a strong field with several runners likely to be in action at the Cheltenham Festival if all goes to plan. Nacarat (Tom George/ Sam Thomas) won this last year with a spectacular display, but he meets better opposition this time and has to concede weight all round. RubyWalsh partners the smart Poqulin for Paul Nicholls, but he is moving up in trip and we are not sure he can stay this far. The two to beat are Diamond Harry (Nick Williams/ James Reveley), easy winner of the Hennessy when last seen, and Time for Rupert (Paul Webber/ Wayne Kennedy), both of whom could be up to Gold Cup standard. Despite the weights, we prefer Diamond Harry, who has won 10 of his 13 starts and always runs well fresh.

The Grade Two hurdle over the same trip at 15.45 can go to CD specialist and German-bred Fair Along (Philip Hobbs/ Rhys Flint), who has won this race for the last 2 years. On his form at other tracks - although also pretty good- he cannot hope to beat Carlito Brigante (Gordon Elliott/ Tom Scudamore) at these weights, but he reserves his best form for this race and we hope to see him land the hat-trick. What a Friend (Nicholls/ Walsh),a smart chaser now reverting to hurdles, is another danger. We also like smart flat handicapper Smoky Oakey (Mark Tompkins/ Colin Bolger) owned by actor Judi Dench, to win the novice hurdle at 17.00 here, while the mares hurdle at 15.15 looks between Alasi (Paul Webber/ Dominic Elsworth) and Whoops a Daisy (Nicky Henderson/ Richie Killoran).

Henderson keeps his main jockey Barry Geraghty closer to home - at Ascot, where the partnership can win the novice hurdle at 17.15 with Tornado d´Estruval and also has chances with Oasis Knight at 14.55, Anquetta at 15.30 and A Media Luz at 16.00- although these are all very tricky events. Main feature here is the 3 mile handicap chase (Grade Three) at 16.40. Two German-breds, both by Lando, could run well here- Ostland (Charlie Longsdon /Andrew Tinkler) and Air Force One (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily), but this is a very open race. Muirhead (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) recently beat Bideford Legend (Charlie Byrnes/ Geraghty) in the Munster National, but the latter can reverse the placings on 8 lbs better terms.

Ascot - betting forecast:
1. Race: Psi - Merehead - Arab League
2. Race: Takeroc - Baseball Ted - Anquetta
3. Race: Topolski - Kumbeshwar - Third Intention
4. Race: Bideford Legend - Muirhead - Balthazar King
5. Race: Tornade d`Estruval - Court In Session - Saute
6. Race: Megastar - Micheal Flips - Tiger O`Toole
7. Race: Crystal Swing - Jojabean - Stormy Gale

Newmarket: final day of season

The final card of 2011 at Newmarket features some very competitive racing, headed by 3 listed races, the first of which is the mile event at 15.05 CET. Godolphin have a strong hand here with 3 of the 9 runners. Jockey bookings suggest that Ecliptic (Frankie Dettori), an easy winner at Salisbury after 15 months off the track, is the stable´s number one, but the consistent Secrecy /Kieren Fallon) is actually higher-rated.

We don´t believe the South African Irish Flame (Mike de Kock/ Richard Hughes), running for the first time since the Meydan meeting and probably over too short a distance, but Confront (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) could be a threat; he has been sacrificed as pacemaker for Harbinger and Workforce, but is pretty useful on his own account as well.

The race for 2yo fillies over a mile at 16.55 looks very open. None of the runners are rated above 88, but plenty of them look capable of great improvement and in fact 10 of the 12 runners were last-time-out winners, 3 of them unbeaten after just one start. Godolphin won this last year with subsequent 1,000 Guineas and Irish Oaks winner Blue Biunting and could go close again with Tactfully (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Dettori), but Oojooba (Roger Varian/ Moore) also looks dangerous.

The third listed event is over 10 furlongs at 17.25; two Godolphins here as well, but neither looks good enough, and we prefer the consistent Jet Away (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) and Dux Scholar (Stoute/ Moore), both owned by Khalid Abdullah.

The card opena with two divisions of a maiden race for 2yo fillie with well-bred debutantes from some of the top stables; we would not be surprised to see Fleur de Cactus at 14.00 and Keene Dancer, half an hour later, run well, both representing the Stoute/ Moore combination.

The big betting race here is the mile handicap at 16.15 with 20 runners. The most interesting runner is Farhh (Saeed bin Suroor/Silvestre de Sousa), out of German Group One winner Gonbarda, who won his only start in excellent fashion; but that was over a year ago, and Frankie Dettori prefers Roayh. However we go for an outsider here, Benandonner (Mike Murphy/ Martin Lane), who always runs well at this track and seems nicely handicapped.

The other flat racing is at Ayr this afternoon and Wolverhampton this evening, but both meetings should be left well alone, and there are far better betting opportunities elsewhere, and in addition, the ground at Ayr will be very testing after heavy rain.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Balady - Fleur De Cactus - Proximity
2. Race: No Compromise - Keene Dancer - Salacia
3. Race: Ecliptic - Secrecy - Confront
4. Race: Mojave - Repeater - Rougemont
5. Race: Dubawi Sound - Robemaker - Justonefortheroad
6. Race: Oojooba - Tactfully - Abishena
7. Race: Jet Away - Dux Scholar - Retrieve
8. Race: Intercept - Rash Judgement - Beckermet

Newmarket´s final meting of 2011

Newmarket´s final meeting of 2011 starts today, when the listed race for 2yo fillies at 16.00 CET is the main feature. It looks a very open race with 14 runners, none of them outstanding. Villeneuve (Willie Muir/ Ryan Moore) had no chance in a group race here last month, but in this lower grade she might be worth chancing. Frankie Dettori does not ride in this race, but we fancy he can win on his only 2 mounts, Fa´lz in the 2yo maiden at 14.50 and Zabeel Park in the conditions race at 17.45, both for Saeed bin Suroor, whose string has finally struck form.
The only other flat racing today is on the all-weather this evening at Wolverhampton and Dundalk; the former meeting is weak, but the Irish fixture looks very competitive with maximum fields in all 8 races. The best race is the 6 furlongs handicap at 19.55, which could well end in a British victory as both Five Star Junior (Linda Stubbs/ Johnny Murtagh) and What about You (Richard Fahey/ Colm O´ Donoghue) both have chances based on their latest form.
There is jumps racing at Uttoxeter (low level) and Wetherby, which is notable for the return of Ruby Walsh. He said earlier in the week that he would not ride here in protest against the suspension given him last week by the Aintree stewards, so it could be significant that he has changed his mind, and now comes over for just one ride - Fistral Beach for Paul Nicholls at 16.20. However we cannot resist a small bet here on the 14yo veteran Mister McGoldrick (Sue Smith/ Shane Byrne), a course specialist who has been off since January but would win this if anywhere near his old form. 4 of the horses that ran in the voided race over this CD earlier this month reappear in the handicap hurdle at 15.45; Cunning Clarets (Richard Fahey/ Dougie Costello) won that "race" and can gain compensation today.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Opera Flute - Vivid Blue - Muaamara
2. Race: Fa`iz - Uriah Heep - Qannaas
3. Race: Moodhill - Mawaqeet - Harlestone Wood
4. Race: Miss Lahar - Excelette - Misty Conquest
5. Race: Hawaafez - Jeu De Vivre - Milnagavie
6. Race: Lieutenant Kojak - Quite A Catch - Conducting
7. Race: Zabeel Park - Parc De Launay - Bop It
8. Race: Orsippus - Gulf Of Naples - Hawridge King

listed races at Lingfield today

two listed races, both for fillies and mares, brighten up today´s sport. They are run on the all-weather at Lingfield, with the mile race at 16.40 CET and the stayers´ race half an hour later. The former race features four fillies that have German form- Clinical (Sir Mark Prescott/ Seb Sanders) and Conciliatory (Rae Guest/ Silvestre de Sousa), who were first and fourth in a similar event at Cologne a month ago, Mosquera´s Romance (Marco Botti/ Adam Kirby), runner-up at Hanover a fortnight earlier, and Kinky Afro (Stan Moore/ Liam Keniry). The problem with the last-named is that she has now been runner-up in 5 listed races (including this one last year) but has never yet won one, so we prefer Clinical, who won with more in hand at Cologne than the official result might suggest. The obvious danger is Godolphin´s Zoowraa (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori).
Bolivia (Lucy Wadham/ Paul Hanagan) is an interesting runner in the latter event. She had smart form in Germany in 2009, but has only run once since. A return to that form would give her a good chance in this company, but perhaps Qushchi (William Jarvis/ Tom Queally), currently in good form, and Cill Rialaig (Hughie Morrison/ Richard Hughes) can be preferred. Otherwise we expect Godolphin, who cleaned up at this meeting last year and are now firing on all cylinders, to have another good day. Al Andaleeb at 14.40, Grizzle at 15.40 and Janood at 16.10 are all partnered by Dettori and all would appear to have decent prospects of winning.
The rest of today´s racing consists of three low-level N.H. cards. At Fontwell, German-bred Promised Wings (Charlie Gordon/ Colin Bolger) - another Monsun, has each-way chances in a poor handicap hurdle at 16.30. At Stratford, Shuil Royal (David Arbuthnot/ Aidan Coleman) run in the novice hurdle at 16.50; he has been off since winning at Kempton in March but looks a class above these opponents. There are the usual large fields at the Irish meetng at Clonmel, where Mickelson (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) is our best bet in the maiden hurdle at 15.45.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Pearl War - Cantal - Strathnaver
2. Race: Rhagori - Miss Astragal - Aiaam Al Wafa
3. Race: Kinloch Castle - Grizzle - Maistro
4. Race: Call To Reason - Janood - Citrus Star
5. Race: Zoowraa - Mosqueras Romance - Clinical
6. Race: Qushchi - Cill Rialaig - Highest
7. Race: Medal Of Valour - Green Wadi - Heatherbird
8. Race: Bold Ring - Seneschal - Fedora

5 meetings today

very little of importance at today´s 5 meetings. Our old friend the 11-yr-old Cape Royal (Milton Bradley/ Sean Levey) did us a favour by winning at Nottingham two weeks ago and reappears over the same CD in the 5 furlongs hadicap at 14.30 CET; but he has gone up 5 lbs and faces a stiffer task this time. A more interesting bet here could be Just Bond (Geoff Oldroyd/Dale Swift), who has top weight in the mile handicap at 16.40; he has been running in better grade events. Godolphin have runners all over at present and can score hre with Kahraba (Saeed bin Duroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) in the 3yo maiden at 17.15.
German-bred Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Lee Newman) is another old friend, and has been in good form over hurdles recently. He returns to the flat in the 2 mile handicap at 16.50 at Musselburgh and has a clear each-way chance; the ones to beat are Lexington Bay (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) and Jeu de Vivre (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning).
Star of a poor card this evening at Kempton could be another Godolphin maiden , the 2yo Circus Mondao at 20.05; he is Frankie Dettori´s only ride of the day.
There is also N.H. racing at Haydock and Punchestown in Ireland. At the former track, the novice hurdle at 16.25 features a clash between Perpetually (John Ferguson/ Paul Moloney) and Pippa Greene (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler). Ferguson, better known as Sheikh Mohammed´s bloodstock advisor, has been doing well with his small string of jumpers and Perpetually made a good impression when winning at Huntingdon, while Pippa Greene (despite the name, a gelding) has finished runner-up on all 3 hurdles start so far. He was the better performer on the flat and gets weight today, so he is the selection.
Punchestown has survived an early morning inspection and the meeting goes ahead on very testing ground. Punters should tread warily here, but we think that Dessie Hughes could land a double with Stonemaster (Davy Russell) at 15.45 and the German-bred Ten Fires (Brian Hayes) at 16.20.

Betting forecast Nottingham:
1. Race: The Strig - Cape Royal - Tislaam
2. Race: Zefooha - Brasingaman Eric - Riviera Stars
3. Race: Loxton Lad - Emerald Smile - Jaci Uzzi
4. Race: Moidore - Cameron Highland - Autarch
5. Race: Nazreef - Ampleforth - Mahadee
6. Race: Kahraba - Shuhra - Bravestofthebrave
7. Race: Petsas Pleasure - My Mate Jake - Ice Nelly
8. Race: Market Puzzle - Talk Of Saafend - Baan

Frankel´s full brother makes debut at Yarmouth

The most interesting race in the U.K. today is the first division of the 2yo mile maiden at Yarmouth at 15.30 CET with several well-bred newcomers from top stables entered - notably Noble Mission (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) who makes his eagerly awaited debut. The youngster is a full brother to champion Frankel and one thing is certain - he won´t be as good as his brother, one of the best racehorses ever to run in Europe. He faces no easy task today as the field of 16 includes several highly rated newcomers, notably Swdish Sailor (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori) and Frasers Hill (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan). This is not a race to bet on, but certainly to be watched. The same goes for the second division half an hour later, in which the $500,000 yearling Moshaaqib (John Gosden/ Richard Hills) makes his debut. The first 4 races here are all for 2yo´s and include juveniles from almost all the top Newmarket stables. The only race with plenty of form is the handicap at 15.00, in which the Queen´s top-weight Travellers Tales (Richard Hannon/ Ryan Moore) and Godolphin´ s Chatterati (al Zarooni/ Dettori) make most appeal.

Yarmouth - betting forecast:
1. Race: Invisible Hunter - Commend - Rewarded
2. Race: Traveller`S Tales - Chatterati - Altona
3. Race: Noble Mission - Commitment - Swedish Sailor
4. Race: Moshaagib - Ruban - Romantic
5. Race: Comrade Bond - Amazing Win - Beautiful Day
6. Race: Pursuing - Cathcart Castle - Gay Gallivanter
7. Race: See Vermont - Bateleur - Star Twilight
8. Race: Kames Park - Delorain - Prickles


The card at Catterick is very difficult with 7 (!) handicaps for older horses, all with large fields. We were wrong yesterday with our prediction that Kieren Fallon would make some headway in the race for the jockeys championship, and he now has now has virtually no chance. Paul Hanagan and Silvestre de Sousa, both of whom are riding here, are now left to fight it out. de Sousa can win the opening 2yo maiden on Mark Johnston´s Idler, but he will start at very cramped odds. Hanagan can strike back with CD winner Makbullet in the 7 furlongs handicap an hour later.

Catterick - betting forecast:
1. Race: Idler - Sir Windsorlot - Gone By Sunrise
2. Race: Black Annis Bower - Cool Rhythm - Deliberation
3. Race: Mandalay King - Fast Shot - Makbullet
4. Race: Descaro - Tricksofthetrade - White Deer
5. Race: Regeneration - Celtic Sultan - Beckermet
6. Race: Child Of Our Time - They All Laughed - Bavarian Nordic
7. Race: Vittachi - Al Shababiya - Strong Knight
8. Race: El Dececy - Spirit Of Coniston - Surely This Time


There is some decent jumps racing at Chepstow. Ruby Walsh´s refusal to ride here, following another outrageous stewards decision at Aintree on Saturday, should be to the advantage of Daryl Jacob, who now partners several fancied mounts for trainer Paul Nicholls. We expect the team to take the two divisions of the novice hurdle that open the card with Prospect Wells at 15.10 and Grandioso at 15,40, both running in the Wylie colours. The novice chase at 16.40 looks a good race. Red Harbour (Nicholls/ Jacobs) and Irish hope Misala (Shark Hanlon/ Paddy Brennan) both won over fences last time out but have to concede 7 lbe to the two useful hurdlers Alfie Spinner (Nick Williams/ James Reveley) and Carpincho (Sarah Hunphreys/ Tony McCoy), which will not be easy. If "Shark" has a winner here, it is in our view more likely to be Darenjan (Brian Hayes), who has top weight in the 2 mile handicap chase at 18.10.

Chepstow - betting forecast:
1. Race: Prospect Wells - Daymar Bay - Future Profit
2. Race: Grandioso - Christopher Wren - Golden Gael
3. Race: Well Hello There - Ramses De Marcigny - Monsieur Cadou
4. Race: Alfie Spinner - Red Harbour - Misala
5. Race: Express Leader - Be My Light - What An Oscar
6. Race: Calico Rose - Beau Fighter - Taste The Wine
7. Race: Rileyev - Fishoutofwater - Educated Evans
8. Race: Barney Cool - Bold Chief - Colour Squadron

3 flat meetings this afternoon

Very much an end of season look to today´s 3 meetings -mainly very lage fields of very moderate performers. The best race also has the smallest field - the conditions event over 1 1/2 miles at 16.00 CET at Leicester. Colombian (John Gosden/ William Buick) stands out here; he is easily best on ratings and has been running respectably in top events, including his 4th place in the Prix du Jockey Club. However this is no walkover, as Late Telegraph (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), could be anything, having won his only start in promising style, while Godolphin´s two runners should also not be overlooked - especially not Sadeek´s Song, Frankie Dettori´s only ride today. Colombian was a non-runner in a group race last week because of the firm ground, which will not be much softer today, so that is another problem.

Main interest at Redcar will be in the continuing battle for the jockeys´ championship between Paul Hanagan and Kieren Fallon, both of whom have several good rides here. Hanagan leads, but in our view Fallon has a good chance of making up ground today, as his rides look more promising. We expect him to win on True to Form at 16.10, and Hurriya at 14.40, Zaeem (one of 3 Godolphin runners in this race) at 15.40, and Damascus Symphony at 16.40 all have good chances. Hanagan´s best chance is on John Dunlop´s Red Lover at 17.10, but he has been off the track for a year.

The most interesting runner at Southwell is the debutant Third Half (Tom Dascombe/ Seb Sanders) in the opening 2yo maiden at 15.20. He is a half-brother to Brown Panther, who also made a winning debut here last year; Michael Owen´s homebred went on to finish 5th in the German Derby and runner-up in the St. Leger. Otherwise we expect all-weather specialist Lethal (Richard Price/ David Kenny) to run well in the apprentice handicap over 6 furlongs at 17.50; he was runner-up over this CD last time and a repetition of that form would see him go close again.

Betting forecast Leicester:
1. Race: Yojimbo - Jordaura - West End Lad
2. Race: Ishiamiracle - Gabrial`s Bounty - Lady Advocate
3. Race: Madgenta - Kyleakin Lass - Springheel Jake
4. Race: Colombian - Late Telegraph - Sadeek`s Song
5. Race: Little Curtsey - Iron Step - Moone`S My Name
6. Race: Boy The Bell - Layla Jamil - Cootehill Lass
7. Race: Fanoos - Tinzapeas - Little Rainbow
8. Race: Flying Applause - Prince Of Passion - No Larking

No flat racing today

Autumn is here at last and from now on there are only a handful of flat races of more than minor interest, and none at all today, with jumping at Aintree, Wincanton and Galway (Ireland) monopolizing affairs. The best card is at Aintree, but the two big handicaps, over hurdles at 16.10 CET and over fences at 16.45 look particularly tricky as many runners have not been seen out since the spring.

In addition quite a few of the runners in the hurdle race have been running over fences, which makes the form even more unreliable. However we do like Fredo (Ian Williams/ Dougie Costello), who has a German pedigree, and was pulled up last time in the Scottish Grand National. Benny be Good(Keith and James Reveley) an obvious danger, as he has won his last 3 races, and was quite impressive when scoring last time (over fences) at Market Rasen, while Galaxy Rock (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) looks another danger with his stable in good form; he was an easy winner at the Cheltenham April meeting last time out. Aother German-bred here is Quicuyo (James Ewart/ Barry Hughes) - brother to Quijano!- who must have a good chance off a low weight in the race at 16.45. Silk Drum (Dianne Sayer/Reveley) is the class act here after his convincing win at the Grand National meeting, but has a huge weight.

At Wincanton, the handicap hurdle at 15.15 is quite open. Aine´s Delight (Andrew Turnell(/Nick Scholfield) could star favourite here; he won 3 successive races over this CD in the spring and has been placed twice on the flat since. Our preference is for Penchesco (Amanda Perrett/ Leighton Aspell), just beaten here last time by James Pollard (Barney Llewellyn/ Mr. RJ Williams), but may be able to reverse the placings this time. In our view Scholfield has a better chance on Jeremy Scott´s Gone to Lunch, who runs in the handicap chase over 3 1/2 miles at 15.50. The field includes the winner, second and fourth from last year, but at these weights we definitely prefer Gone to Lunch, who has been given a real chance by the handicapper.

There are the usual huge fields at the Irish meeting at Galway. Gordon Elliott has his string in excellent form and can land a double here with Wee Doll (Paul Carberry), an easy point-to-point winner a fortnight ago, in the mares maiden hurdle at 16.15, and Tharawaat (Davy Russell), who has top weight in the handicap chase an hour later. He was pulled up last time at the Punchestown festival, but this race - though still very tough- look a bit easier.

3 flat meetings this afternoon

very much an end of season look to today´s 3 meetings -mainly very lage fields of very moderate performers. The best race also has the smallest field - the conditions event over 1 1/2 miles at 16.00 CET at Leicester. Colombian (John Gosden/ William Buick) stands out here; he is easily best on ratings and has been running respectably in top events, including his 4th place in the Prix du Jockey Club. However this is no walkover, as Late Telegraph (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), could be anything, having won his only start in promising style, while Godolphin´s two runners should also not be overlooked - especially not Sadeek´s Song, Frankie Dettori´s only ride today. Colombian was a non-runner in a group race last week because of the firm ground, which will not be much softer today, so that is another problem.
Main interest at Redcar will be in the continuing battle for the jockeys´ championship between Paul Hanagan and Kieren Fallon, both of whom have several good rides here. Hanagan leads, but in our view Fallon has a good chance of making up ground today, as his rides look more promising. We expect him to win on True to Form at 16.10, and Hurriya at 14.40, Zaeem (one of 3 Godolphin runners in this race) at 15.40, and Damascus Symphony at 16.40 all have good chances. Hanagan´s best chance is on John Dunlop´s Red Lover at 17.10, but he has been off the track for a year.
The most interesting runner at Southwell is the debutant Third Half (Tom Dascombe/ Seb Sanders) in the opening 2yo maiden at 15.20. He is a half-brother to Brown Panther, who also made a winning debut here last year; Michael Owen´s homebred went on to finish 5th in the German Derby and runner-up in the St. Leger. Otherwise we expect all-weather specialist Lethal (Richard Price/ David Kenny) to run well in the apprentice handicap over 6 furlongs at 17.50; he was runner-up over this CD last time and a repetition of that form would see him go close again.

Betting forecast Leicester:
1. Race: Yojimbo - Jordaura - West End Lad
2. Race: Ishiamiracle - Gabrial`s Bounty - Lady Advocate
3. Race: Madgenta - Kyleakin Lass - Springheel Jake
4. Race: Colombian - Late Telegraph - Sadeek`s Song
5. Race: Little Curtsey - Iron Step - Moone`S My Name
6. Race: Boy The Bell - Layla Jamil - Cootehill Lass
7. Race: Fanoos - Tinzapeas - Little Rainbow
8. Race: Flying Applause - Prince Of Passion - No Larking

Holiday

This column is now taking a holiday and will be back on Sunday October 23rd.

QIPCO Champions Day at Ascot

Before we leave on a well-deserved holiday we shall have a quick look at Ascot´s big Saturday meeting, one of the best ever staged in the U.K. It begins with the Long Distance Cup over 2 miles at 14.50 CET, which looks between Opinion Poll (Mahmood al Zarooni / F.Dettori) and Fame and Glory (Aidan O´Brien / J.Spencer). Although the latter won the Gold Cup here, we prefer the more consistent Opinion Poll over this trip.

The Sprint Cup over 6 furlongs at 15.25 looks very open with 16 runners. James Fanshawe has a strong hand here with Deacon Blues (Johnny Murtagh) and Society Rock (Pat Cosgrave). Although the trainer has expressed misgivings about the fast ground for Deacon Blues, he still looks the most likely winner. The fillies and mares race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.00 is another open affair. Ferdoos (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan) beat Vita Nova (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) in May but has not run since, while her rival has improved. Howvr we like Dancing Rain (William Haggas/ Murtagh) and hope she can give the German form a boost after her easy win at Düsseldorf.

The Queen Elizabeth II Stake over a mile at 16.35 is the day´s highlight and stars the best horse in the world on official ratings - Frankel (Cecil/ Queally). He is unbeaten in 8 starts and now equipped with a pacemaker should make it nine in a row. The Queen will be there to present the trophy to Khalid Abdullah. We hope that German classic form will receive another boost here from Excelebration (Marco Botti/ Spencer), while third place should go to French filly Immortal Verse (Robert Collet/ Gerald Mosse). Nothing else has a chance.

The Champion Stakes at 17.10 is another highlight, although the decision to run the race here instead of at Newmarket was very controversial. Twice Over (Cecil/ Ian Mongan) has won the race twice (at Newmarket) but we cannot imagine that he will win this time and prefer stable companion Midday (Queally), who has not been out of the first two for the past 2 years. Snow Fairy (Ed Dunlop/ Olivier Peslier) and So You Think (O´Brien/ Ryan Maoore), 3rd and 4th in the Arc, and top French performer Cirrus des Aigles (Corinne Barbe) make this really tough, but our fancy is the lightly-raced and potentially top-class Dubai Prince (al Zarooni/ Dettori).

Cheltenham opens today

The first important fixture of the new N.H. season starts today, with the first day of Cheltenham´s October meeting. The racing is very competitive and easily the best jumps racing so far this season in the U.K. The opening novice hurdle at 15.10 CET looks to be between Bold Addition (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), winner of his last 3 races, all in the spring, and Sizing Symphony (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch), racing for the first time outside his native Ireland. The Irish horse could have a fitness advantage here, but we still prefer the Nicholls/ Walsh candidate, and the same team can follow up in the next race with That´ll Do.

The 3 mile handicap hurdle at 16.20 look very tricky; this is the first of a series which ends with a huge handicap at the Festival in March, and that race has been won the last twice by Buena Vista (David Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell) -his only wins in the last 4 years! We cannot imagine he can win so early in the season with this rating, and in any case he only seems to be the third of his stable´s three entries. Tom Scudamore rides Qulinton, but our preference is for Raslan (Danny Cook), a son of Lomitas. Lomitas is also the sire of Liberate (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who has a good each-way chance in the novice chase at 16.55, and his trainer and jockey also have good prospects with Outrageous Request in the maiden hurdle at 17.30.

Today´s flat racing is very uninspiring - the main interest at Haydock will be to see if Richard Hughes turns up or not (see previous story). Possibly the best race is the fillies handicap over 7 furlongs this evening at Dundalk at 21.30. Three British challengers here - Richard Fahey´s Sioux Rising (RP Whelan) and Coolminx (Joseph O´Brien) and Kevin Ryan´s Blue Moon (Declan McDonough) all look dangerous, but our fancy is Flic Flac (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen).

Richard Hughes

Big talking point in British racing circles today is the sudden decision of Richard Hughes to retire from race riding with immediate effect. He anounced this last night at Kempton after being given a 10 day ban by the stewards for whip abuse, following a 5 day ban earlier in the week, as a result of the new whip rules which came into effect on Monday. Several other jockeys have also been hit with bans, notably William Buick.

The new whip rules were originally greeted by most jockeys, but this week´s events has seen many of them change their minds. It would come as no surprise to see the rules changed or modified before long. 38-year-old Hughes is the tallest jockey riding in the U.K. and one of the most successful, with well over 1500 winners to his credit, inc,uding numerous top events. His partnership with champion trainer Richard Hannon, his father-in-law, has been particularly successful, especially in the big 2yo races. He has 4 rides booked at Haydock today, and more importantly 5 tomorrow at the QIPCO Champions Day at Ascot. It remains to be seen if he will actually be riding at these meetings.

5 meetings today

5 meetings today and easily the best sport is to be seen at the Irish N.H. meeting at Punchestown with 3 graded races. The star of the show is Forpadytheplasterer (Tom Cooper/ Barry Geraghty). The brilliant 2009 Arkle winner has not been seen out since pulling up in the King George on Boxing Day at Kempton, which followed a string of second places in top events. Unfortunately he has only two inferior opponents to beat at 17.15 CET today, both of whom have to give him weight, so he is very close to a certainty; his odds will reflect this, so he is not a betting proposition, but it will be a sensation if he fails to win here. We expect the novice hurdle at 15.45 to go to Steps to Freedom, an easy winner at Fairyhouse 3 weeks ago and easily the best of these on flat form. Smart hurdler Shinrock Paddy makes his chasing debut at 16.45, and although he has been off the track for 8 months, should win this comfortably if he can transfer his form over sticks to fences.

There is also N.H. racing in the U.K. at Uttoxeter and Wincanton, but at a much lower level than in Ireland. At the former track, Tony McCoy can land a double with Torretto at 15.10 and Mistoffelees at 16.40; the latter, who has a German pedigree and was decent handicapper on the flat for Luca Cumani, is our best bet here. A German-bred winner at Wincanton could be Sadlers Star in the handicap chase at 15.50;he has been put up 8 lbs for an easy win at Fontwell last time, but this opposition does not look strong.

Our German bred-fancy on the flat is Agapanthus (Barney Curley/ Tom Queally), who runs in the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.00 at Brighton. Following Barney has been very expensive this year, but today could be the day for this one-time listed performer, now racing off a very low mark. Othrwise we expect a Godolphin double here via Asaid at 15.30 and Expert Fighter at 16.30, both trained by Saeed bin Suroor. It is rather late in the season, but bin Suroor has finally hit top form, and can also take the main event at Kempton´s evening meeting, a mile and a half handicap at 21.20, in which he has two runners, Deraasa (Tadhg O´Shea) and Yasir (Ian Mongan), both with chances

Lots of runners

Large fields at all 5 meetings today, with 121 runners declared for Nottingham alone. Best race here is the 10 furlongs handicap at 16.15 CET with 16 runners. This is quite a decent race, but the lightly-raced Monsun colt Midsummer Sun (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) looks the answer. He has won 2 of his 4 starts, and although flopping twice, looks as if is much better than a handicapper.

He is certainly bred to be, as he is a half-brother to the multiple Group One winner Midday from one of Khalid Abdullah´s best families. Another runner with German connections here is Waldvogel (Nicky Richards/ Tom Eaves), but the trip is probably too short for this son of German St. Leger winner Wurftaube - also dam of Waldpark- and the ground too soft. We think that ex-Italian Fattsota (Marco Botti/ Adam Kirby) could be more of a danger.

There are also big fields for the all-weather meetings, this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Kempton,but much less quality. At the former track, the one time German group winner Aspectus (Jamie Osborne/ Sophie Doyle) could run well at a big price in division one of the mile handicap at 17.05. He has so far failed to win in 16 U.K. starts, but is now on a very attractive mark and also ran well (2nd of 11) on his only start at this track. At Kempton, in view of the amazing form of the stable´s 2yo´s we fancy Graphic (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) to win the conditions race for juvniles over a mile at 20.40, although it looks quite a tricky race.

There is N.H. racing today at Wetherby and Punchestown. We expect Border Reiver (Tim Easterby/ Dougie Costello) to run well off bottom weight in the handicap chase at 16.55 at the Yorkshire track. He has won his last 3 starts here and gets quite a bit of weight from the main dangers. The handicap hurdle half an hour earlier can go to German-bred Glorybe (another Monsun) (CCBealby/ Tom Messenger), who won over this CD when last seen in April and seems well handicapped.

In Ireland the main event is the listed mares hurdle at 16.20. Elyaadi (John Queally/ Niall Madden) finished third in this last year, and only 10 days ran in a Group One on the flat at Longchamp (she finished last in the Cadran), and has an obvious chance, but we much prefer the 4yo Chaperoned (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power), who fell the last time she ran over hurdles but was a good second on the flat last week.

3 meetings today

Autumn is definitely here as can be seen from today´s cards from Leicester and Newcastle, large but mainly low-level fields of maidens and poor handicappers. The 2yo maidens look very tricky with lots of well-bred but lightly-raced types from big stables, but the 7 furlongs conditions race for juveniles at 15.10 CET looks more interesting, even with only 6 runners, all of them winners.

Mabaany (William Haggas/ Richard Hills) won by 10 lengths last time and is the likely favourite, while Newnton Lodge (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) was a promising winner of his only start, but we give slight preference to Cravat (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa). The conditions race over a mile for older fillies at 17.10 should go to Godolphin, who have two runners, both of whom finished last in much better company last time. Zoowra (Mahmood at Zarooni/ de Sousa), who looked very promising last year for Michael Jarvis, has not been seen out aince the French 1,000 Guineas and is preferred to Ragsar (Saeed bin Suroor/ Richard Mullen), well beaten at Newmarket 18 days ago.

The card at Newcastle is not nearly so interesting, though again we have large fields of well-bred maidens. The 2 divisions of the 6 furlongs handicap look too difficult, but the 2 mile handicap at 18.00 in our opinion offers a good betting opportunity in Riptide (Michael Scudamore/ Jamie Goldstein), who was a close fourth last time against better opposition at York.

They go over jumps at Huntingdon today and our old friend Ostland (Charlie Longsdon/ Andrew Tinkler), once runner-up in the German Derby for Peter Schiergen, has top weight in the 3 mile handicap chase at 16.50. He weakened quickly last time at Market Rasen, but this is much easier race and we feel that he can get back on the winning trail. Otherwise we think that Nicky Richards could land a double here with Parc des Princes (Dougie Costello) at 15.20 and Winter Alchemy (Brian Harding) at 17.20 - although the latter should watch out for Go Amwell (John Jenkins/ Timmy Murphy), who won the race last year.

Saturday at Newmarket

this column is taking the next 3 days off, but before we leave, we shall have a quick look at Saturday´s excellent Newmarket card - 6 group races plus the Cesarewitch, one of the hottest handicaps of the year with 34 runners over 2 1/4 miles at 16.50 CET. N.H. trainers often shine here, and Nicky Henderson has a strong hand with Sentry Duty (Johnny Murtagh), 6th last year after not getting a clear run, and Veiled (Eddie Ahern), unbeaten in 2 starts on the flat this year; both are smart hurdlers, and we expect both of them to do well. 4 of the group races are for 2yo ´s and they include the Group One Middle Park Stakes over 6 furlongs at 15.35 and the Group One Dewhurst Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.10 -a ludicrous clash. For the record our selections are the French-trained Family One and the Irish hope Power respectively. Strong Suit (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) looks the best bet of the day in the opening Challenge Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.05, while we hope that our old friend Premio Loco (Chris Wall/ George Baker) runs well in the final Darley Stakes at 18.35, even though the race conditions are against him.

This column will be back on Tuesday.

Ruby Walsh back

Ruby Walsh is back in England today for the first time this jumps season. He has 3 rides at Newton Abbot, two of them for champion Paul Nicholls: ex-French Edgardo Sol making his U.K. debut in the handicap chase at 15.55 CET, and German-bred King of the Night in the best race on the card, a handicap hurdle over 2 3/4 miles at 16.30. Edgardo Sol has been set a very stiff task in our view, but King of the Night must have a chance in his race. Another German-bred, the consistent Salontyre (Bernard Llewellyn/ MJ Quinlan) looks the danger. York races today and tomorrow, its final meeting of 2011, with Richard Fahey hoping to confirm his position a the track´s leading trainer, as he has been for the past 6 years. His best chances today are probably Prime Exhibit (Paul Hanagan) in the mile handicap at 16.05 and Lisiere (Tony Hamilton) in the 2yo maiden at 16.40, but these are all very tricky races.

There is more N.H. racing at Carlisle, and two more German-breds with chances here are Quicuyo (James Ewart/ Barry Hughes, a brother to Quijano, who runs in the handicap chase at 17.30 and Andorn (Peter Kirby/ Kyle James), who has top weight in the handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys half an hour later. There is all-weather racing this evening at Wolverhampton and Sundalk. At the former track, two recent course winners who can go in again under a penalty and top weight, are Titus Gent (Jeremy Gask/ Raul da Silva) at 20.15 and Come On Blue Chip (Paul d´Arcy/ Paul Hanagan) half an hour later. The standard is much higher at the Irish track, where the best event is the Star Appeal Stakes (remember him? he won the Arc for Germany in 1975!) for 2yo´s at 20.30. Aidan O´Brien holds a strong hand here with East meets West (Seamus Heffernan) and Vault, ridden by son Joseph. We prefer the latter, who has been running in top races.

5 more poor meetings today

Racing continues at very low level in the U.K. and Ireland today. At Ayr, the best race is the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.10 CET. This looks very open with 14 runners; our 3 against the field are top-weight Veroon (James Given/ Dale Swift), dropoing in grade, German-bred Daring Dream (Jim Goldie/ Gary Bartley) and Gala Casino Star (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan). The only other flat racing is on the all-weather Wolverhampton this evening, woth very poor sport. It might be significant that Kieren Fallon, still hoping to be crowned champion jockey, has several rides here.

Over jumps, David Pipe launches an attack on Exeter today with runners in almost every race. Shallow Bay at 15.20, Surfboard at 16.20, Soulard at 17.20, all with Tom Scudamore aboard, and Tigger (Conor O´Farrell) at 17.50 look to be his best chances. At Worcester it could be the turn of Tim Vaughan and Richard Johnson to shine. They can successfully team up with Elsadeer at 15.30, Loco Grande at 16.30 and Kackhanded half an hour later, among others

5 meetings today

5 meetings today, but mainly low level events with big fields and not at all punter-friendly. There is jumps racing at Ludlow and Towcester. At the former track Tony McCoy once again looks the jockey to follow; he has 4 rides and in our view they all hold winning chances. Fools Wildcat at 15.10 CET and Definite All Star at 17.10 are both trained by Irishman Gordon Elliott, while Calypso Bay at 16.10 and Mauritino half an hour later are trained by Jonjo O´Neill. The German-bred Mauritino is our best bet here; he won his last two races over hurdles back in the spring, but has also been in good form on the flat since. At Towcester, another German-bred with a chance is Nicky Nutjob (O´Shea/ Josh Wall) in the handicap hurdle at 17.20. He has gone up 9 lbs for his easy Hereford win in August (with this claimer up) but the opposition here looks weak.

At Nottingham, Frankie Dettori has 3 rides for Godolphin: Fennell Bay at 16.30, Estourah at 17.00 and Kehraba at 18.00; none of them are stable stars but they could all be involved in today´s low level events. Most likely winner at Navan´s afternoon meeting, with the usual huge fields, is Hidden Universe (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) in the 2 mile maiden at 16.35. He is a smart hurdler and also a top bumper winner and should outclass this lot, but is unlikely to start at a decent price. Kempton´s evening meeting is best left alone, but with trainer and jockey still in terrific form, we expect Gusto (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) to win the 2yo novice stakes at 21.40.

typical Tuesday

Typical Tuesday racing today, i.e. all at a very low level. The best racing is from Leicester, where there ere some large fields, but very few runners in the better races. 3 run in the 2yo conditions race over 10 furlongs at 16.40 CET, which might go to Rougement (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) and 4 in the following 3yo handicap over 1 /2 miles; top-weight Franciscan (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon), unlucky at Goodwood last time, is our choice here, but these are not good betting races. Nor is the opening maiden race for 2yo fillies with 18 runners, including 14 debutants, most of them well-bred and from top stables. Hannon and Hughes, whose record wth 2yo´s this season is amazing, could score here with Throne, but this is all guesswork.

At Catterick, David Nicholls could have a double with Come on Dave in the 2yo maiden at 16.00 and Annie Walker in the nursery half an hour later, both of whom ran well over this CD last time and have the trainer´s son Adrian in the saddle.

Saeed bin Suroor could also land a double today on the all-weather at Southwell; he has 2 of the 4 runners in the maiden race over 1 1/2 miles at 16.50. Sweet Lavender (William Buick) finished in front of Deraasa (Tadhg O´Shea) when they met last time and Kempton and could do so again, and Buick can also score for the stable with debutant Hurriya in the 2yo fillies maiden an hour earlier.

There are maximum fields in almost all races at the Irish N.H. meeting at Tipperary and winners look difficult to find. Flycorn (Tom Hogan/ Joe Cullen) and Mickelson (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) could win the two divisions of the 2 mile maiden hurdle at 14.55 and 15.25 respectively, but are far from certainties, and nor is Local Celebrity (Willie and Paddy Mullins) in the bumper at 17.55.

From the sublime to the ridiculous

After yesterday´s magnificent racing, today´s cards are a total anti-climax. Pontefract offers the best sport, and -with all due respect - this says everything about the quality of today´ s three cards. The conditions race over 2 1/4 miles at 16 .10 CET has only 5 runners and looks a straight match between the 3yo´s Colour Vision (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa) and Firefighter (Sir Mark Prescott/ David Probert), who has won 4 of his last 4 races. There is little between them but we incline to the Johnston colt. He could possibly be a second winner for the Johnston/ de Sousa team, who also have a chance with top weight Crown Counsel in the 3yo handicap over a mile half an hour earlier. He must however give a lot of weight to the in-form Cruiser (Willie Muir/ Martin Dwyer) and Diverting (Willie Jarvis/ Lee Newman), who is going for a fourtimer.

At Warwick, our old friend the 11yo Cape Royal runs his 170th race in the 5 furlongs handicap at 15.50. He has top-weight here against a poor bunch, but even so we are not sure if he can handle the fast ground. A better bet could be Dare to Bare (Amanda Perrett/ Darryll Holland) in the mile handicap at 17.20. After three successive second places, he finally won last time out at Kempton, and if he can transfer that form to turf, can score again here. At Windsor, our eye is caught by ex-German classic winner Aviso (David Evans/ Kieren Fallon) in the mile handicap at 16.00. He has been a frequent disappointment, but ran a good race over 7 furlongs last time at Leicester, and for the first time in ages has a senior jockey on board here. At this track it usually pays to follow Richard Hannon´s 3yo´s, so we suggest that Eurystheus might win the maiden at 16.00 and the stable can follow up half an hour later with Avon River in the claimer, both ridden by Richard Hughes.

rest of Longchamp

with 9 races on the card, including 8 Group Ones (one of them for Arab-breds), this is the best raceday of the whole year.The card opens with the Prix du Cadran over 4000 metres at 13.10 CET, in which the German hope Tres Rock Danon(Waldemar Hickst/ Andreas Suborics), who stays for ever but is rather one-paced, has a chance of being placed.
The Prix de l´Abbaye at 13.45 is over the other extreme distance- 1000 metres. French runners very rarely win this, and the field of 15 includes 8 Brits, 2 Irish and one Swedish hope. This is tricky, but our main fancies are Prohibit (Robert Cowell/ Jim Crowley) and Sole Power (Eddie Lynam/ Keagan Latham).
The two races for 2yo´s which follow are the weakest events of the day - the Prix Marcel Boussac for fillies at 14.20, and the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at 14.55, in which Dabirsim (Christophe Ferland Frankie Dettori) will be the hottest favourite of the day. The colt is unbeaten in 4 starts and on all known form should have much too much firepower for 6 rivals today. He is owned by our good friend (and boss!) Simon Springer.
Grmn hop lin thu do not run in th Pro d la Fort ovr 7 furlong t 15.30. The race looks at the mercy of magnificent Goldikova (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier), who won this last year and is now going for an unprecendented 15th Group One success. This is almost certainly her last race in Europe. The Italian 4yo Worthadd (Vincente Caruso/ Dettori) may chase her home.
There is a double German entry in the Prix de la Foret for fillies and mares over 10 furlongs at 17.45, where Fjumama (Andreas Löwe/ Andreas Helfenbein) has a much better chance than Julies Love (Manfred Hofer/ Mikael Barzalona)- who was due to be sold last night. The supplemented Announce (Andre Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), the unbeaten Nahrain (Roger Varian/ Dettori) and the tough Irish filly Banimpire (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) are the ones to beat.

prix de l`Arc de Triomphe today at 16.15 CET

the prix de l`Arc de Triomphe is beyond any doubt the world´s best horse race, and today´s edition is one of the most open ever. Whereas in some previous years there has been one outstanding candidate - e.g. Dalakhani, Zarkava or Sea the Stars -who then went on to justify favouritism, this time there are 13 plausible winners in the field of 16 and it is not at all clear who will head the market. Given the popularity of the Aga Khan on French racecourses and his excellent record in this race, it is possible that Sarafina (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Christophe Lemaire) will start favourite, but British bookies will give you 5-1. She may not even be the stable´s number one, as Reliable Man (Gerald Mosse) is equally fancied, although the French Derby winner would be happier on easier going. Sarafina had a very troubled race last year, and again had to squeeze thorigh a gap last time out, and with an outside draw this race will not play to her strengths.
The first 3 from 2010 meet again: Workforce (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), Nakayama Festa (Y.Ninoyina/ Masayoshi Ebina) and Sarafina , but to be honest, we fancy none of them. If an older horse has to win, it will be in our opinion the other Japanese runner Hiruno d´Amour (M.Kon/ Shinji Fujita), the ex-Australian and now Irish hope So You Think (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan) or the filly (Snow Fairy (Ed Dunlop/ Frankie Dettori), who finished runner-up to So You Think in the Irish Champion but could possibly turn the tables over this distance and on this better ground.
All 4 runners from the Prix Foy, the main trial for older horses, meet again: Sarafina, Hiruno d´Amour, St. Nicholas Abbey (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien and possibly going to be used as a pacemaker) and Nakayama Festa. The trial for 3yo´s the same day was won by Reliable Man from Meandre (Andre Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), who has been supplemented and whose trainer has won this race 7 times. The Prix Vermeille for fillies on the same card was won by Galikova (Freddie Head/ Olivier Peslier) from Testosterone (Pascal Bary/Stephane Paquier) and Shareta (Royer-Dupre/ Thierry Jarnet and another possible pacemaker today). Of these Galikova, a half-sister to the great Goldikova is clearly the best and could complete a great day for her trainer and jockey.
The 8 3yo´s include the winner of the Irish Derby Treasure Beach (O´Brien/ Colm O´Donoghue), St. Leger Masked Marvel (John Gosden/ William Buick), Prix du Jockey Club (Reliable Man), Grand Prix de Paris (Meandre) and of course our German hope Danedream (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke), winner of the Grosser Preis von Berlin and Grosser Preis von Baden. She is one of 3 supplementary runners, the other being Masked Marvel, who also has a German background, and we certainly expect her to run a big race, although whether she is good enough to win an Arc remains to be seen. She ie well drawn in 2, which means that Starke can probably get her in a good position on the rail; the pace looks certain to be fast and furious -it usually is - with some pacemakers in the field, though the stable tactics of Aidan O´Brien´s runners are still not clear.
We hope Danedream can win, but everything will have to fall right; the main dangers could be Masked Marvel and Hiruno d´Amour, who has been heavily backed, but as said above, there are 13 possible winners here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kasbah Bliss - Ley Hunter - Celtic Celeb
2. Race: Prohibit - Mar Adentro - Requinto
3. Race: Zantenda - Yellow Rosebud - Elusive Kate
4. Race: Dabirsim - Salure - American Devil
5. Race: Goldikova - Marchand D`Or - Dream Ahead
6. Race: Galikova - Workforce - Sarafina
7. Race: Ragiyah - Al Tair - Asraa Min Albarq
8. Race: Sandy`s Charm - Announce - Nahrain
9. Race: On The Road Jack - Le Bosphore - Roatan

Big sales races for 2yo´s

Quite apart from the other top sport on offer today, there are also 3 sales races for 2yo´s with huge prize-money on offer, two at Newmarket, both sponsored by Tattersalls, and one at Redcar. Form do no lay wrk out in th rv, but thorticlly mitar (Mick Chnnon/ m Hitchcott) hd to win th filli rc t Nwmrkt t 15.25 aftr hr nbrrow dfat in th Grpup On Gulli Mil hr lat wk. In the colts race at 16.00 Entifaadah (William Haggas/ Richard Hills) has a similar chance, but we wonder why Richard Hughes is here to partner Richard Hannon´s Coupe de Ville, despite his below par performance last time, and he could be a danger. We also think Graylami (Robert Mills/ Michael Hills) has a good each way chance here in the 12 furlongs handicap at 16.35.

Newmarket - betting forecast:
1. Race: Campanology - Mizwaaj - Al Wajba
2. Race: Samitar - Hazel Lavery - Wahylah
3. Race: Entifaadha - Talwar - Miblish
4. Race: Jameel - Topolski - Art History
5. Race: Encke - Good Morning Star - Sadma
6. Race: Principal Role - Thistle Bird - Poplin
7. Race: Rose Blossom - Blanche Dubawi - Cochabamba


The form choice at 17.00 at Redcar is clearly Bannock (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa) but this race looks very tricky and we would not be surprised to see stable companion Fulbright (Freddie Tylicki) run a big race. Colonial (Saeed bin Suroor/ Phillip Makin) could be another Godolphin winner in the listed race at 16.25, while Aquarian Spirit (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) has each-way prospects in the straight mile handicap at 15.50.

Redcar - betting forecast:
1. Race: Fa`iz - Buster Brown - Invasor Girl
2. Race: Jonny Lesters Hair - Charlie Cool - Just The Tonic
3. Race: Colonial - Doncaster Rover - Majestic Myles
4. Race: Bannock - Bogart - Silverheels
5. Race: Yorksters Prince - Sinatramania - Huntingfortreasure
6. Race: Hypnosis - Rhal - Select Committee
7. Race: Sciampin - Painted Tail - Amazing Blue Sky

3 group races and two listed at Ascot

Ascot also offers a very stroing card today, featuring 3 group races, two listed and a very hot handicap over 7 furlongs at 16.50 CET, the big betting race of the day. With 18 runners this is really wide open, although Smarty Socks (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) will probably start favourite after his CD win 4 weeks ago. However Pastoral Player (Hughie Morrison/ Daarryll Holland) and Atlantc Sport (Mick Channon/ Tony Culhane) were not far behind him then and are now better off at the weights, so they also have their chance. However our main fancies are Decent Fella (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) and Casual Glimpse (Richard Hannon/ William Buick); the latter finished 6th in the German 2000 Guineas in May and the form of that race has worked out very well.

There could well be a German winner here as War Artist (Markus Klug/ Martin Harley) has an obvious chance in the Bengough Stakes at 16.15. The 8yo has been out of luck wth the weather this year, but finally everything has come right for him and we hope that he can see off Genki (Roger Charlton/ George Baker) and Elzaam (Roger Varian/ Tadhg O´Shea). In the other group races we like Caledonia Lady (Jo Hughes/ Neil Callan) in the Cornwallis Stakes for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 15.05 and Lost in the Moment (Saeed bin Suroor/ Ted Durcan) in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes over 1 1/2 miles at 15.40.

British punters always underestimate German form, and there is a chance that Mosqueras Romance (Marco Botti/ Darryll Holland) could start at a generous price in the listed race for fillies at 18.00. Her run at Hanover behind Glady Romana was not at all bad, and the pair finished well clear of the third horse.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: My Propeller - Caledonia Lady - Stonefield Flyer
2. Race: Arctic Cosmos - Lost In The Moment - Quest For Peace
3. Race: Genki - Elzaam - Dinkum Diamond
4. Race: Smarty Socks - Eton Forever - Decent Fella
5. Race: Astrophysical Jet - Zero Money - Desert Law
6. Race: Rainfall - Flambeau - Mosqueras Romance
7. Race: Marygold - Hot Sugar - Sans Loi

Huge weekend for international racing

This is the best weekend of the year for international racing, with two superb cards from Longchamp, top class racing at Belmont Park and Santa Anita in th U.S. and excellent racing today from the U.K. We shall start with Longchamp, where there are 4 Group 2 races today, as well as Group One for Arab horses - not much compared to tomorrow´s feast, but still one of the season´s top racecards.

Admittedly, two of the Group 2´s are pretty weak by the standards of this track- the Prix Chaudenay for 3yo´s over 3000 metres at 15.40 CET with only 5 runners and the Prix de Royallieu for fillies and mares over 2500 metres at 16.50 with only four. They are not good betting races, but our selections are Gaily Game (Jean-Claude Rouget/ Olivier Peslier) and Modeyra (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) respectively.

We expect Godolphin to have a massive day, both in France and England, and hope to see Rio de la Plata (bin Suroor/ Dettori) take the Prix Daniel Wildenstein over a mile at 16.15. He holds Rajsaman (Freddie Head/ Thierry Jarnet) on their running in the Prix du Moulin here and is a real CD specialist. Set the Trend (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) is another British possibility here, while Royal Bench (Robert Collet/ Ioritz Mendizabal) and Best Desting( S Wattel/ Gregory Benoist) could also go well.

However the best race of the day is clearly the Prix Dollar over 10 furlongs at 17.25, which is of Group One quality and features the great Cirrus des igles (Corinne Barande-Barbe/ Franck Blondel), who would have a good chance in tomorrow´s Arc (he is a gelding and therefore barred from running). He is equally effective over this trip, loves Longchamp and was an easy winner here last year. The opposition looks strong, but he still stands out. We would love to see the two Germans run well- Durban Thunder (Torsten Mundry/ Terry Hellier) and Theo Danon (Peter Schiergen/ Andreas Suborics) and will risk a small place bet on each, although they face a really stiff task. Durban Thunder made all to win at Munich last time but may struggle to confirm that form with runner-up Famous Name (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) who is now 6 lbs better off. Byword (Andre´ Fabre/ Maxime Guyon) and French Navy (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Ahmed Ajtebi) are two others of Group One class in this really hot rac e.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Everett - Caraside - Lady Orpen
2. Race: Kiss de Ghazal - Al Zad - Eauvation des Cedres
3. Race: Honneur Supreme - Rudyard - Totxo
4. Race: Pacifique - Miss Lago - Gaily Game
5. Race: Royal Bench - Rio De La Plata - Rajsaman
6. Race: Shamanova - Sea Of Heartbreak - Modeyra
7. Race: Cirrus des Aigles - Famous Name - Byword
8. Race: Cat Melody - Sun Sea Bird - Madeenh