Frankel a certainty ?

The 203rd running of the QIPCO 2,000 Guineas for 3yo´s over a mile at 16.10 CET this afternoon at Newmarket is the first major classic of the European season. The rc revolves around Frankel (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), unbeaten in 5 starts and the hottest favourite since Nijinsky 40 years ago. On official ratings he has plenty in hand and in theory should win this easily, but there are still some nagging doubts. His headstrong style of running, spectacular though it is, is not ideal for this kind of race, even though he has been equipped with a pacemaker (Barry and Michael Hills), also owned by Khalid Abdullah. The firm ground is another unknown factor (though possibly better for him than very soft), and the no. 1 draw is certainly a problem. In addition, favourites have very poor record in this race ? only one has won in the last 20 years. He is by far the likeliest winner, but we would not like to back him at odds around 2-1on.

In our view there are only 6 plausible alternatives in the field of 13. The two Irish challengers Pathfork (Jessica Harrington/ Fran Berry), unbeaten in 3 starts, and Roderic O´Connor (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) obviously come into this category, although it is possible that the latter may need cut in the ground. Native Khan (Ed Dunlop/ Olivier Peslier) loves the ground and won the Craven Stakes here, usually a good guide, although very few horses have won both these events in recent times. Fury (William Haggas/ Johnny Murtagh) won both his starts last season and is probably much better than his official rating.

And then there are the two Godolphin runners ? Casamento (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Frankie Dettori) and Saamidd (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikal Barzalona). Saamidd ran badly here in the Dewhurst (won easily by Frankel) but had looked pretty smart beforehand. However his trainer has not yet won a race in Europe this season, while Al Zarooni has a strike rate of 30%. Casamento was trained in Ireland last season, and finished only a head behind Pathfork in their top 2yo race. However he is double the price of that rival and looks a good each-way bet at these prices.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Proponent - Green Destiny - Kay Gee Be
2. Race: Laaheb - Dandino - Campanologist
3. Race: Frankel - Pathfork - Roderic O`Connor
4. Race: Astrophysical Jet - Sole Power - Borderlescott
5. Race: Commended - Forjatt - Seal Rock
6. Race: Cai Shen - Namibian - Ocean War
7. Race: Sikeeb - Crown Counsel - Darej

Rest of Newmarket

The supporting card at Newmarket is also strong, featuring two group races. The Jockey Club Stakes over 1 1/2 miles at 15.30 CET has only 6 runners, but still looks very tricky. Godolphin´ s Campanologist (Saeed bin Suroor) is top-rated here, mainly as a result of his German Group One wins last summer. He last ran in the Melbourne Cup ? well beaten- and his trainer is not yet in form. James Given saddles two runners here, with Indian Days (Paul Hanagan), who won the John Porter at Newbury last time, carrying a 3 lbs penalty, so his other runner Dandino (Paul Mulrennan) is just preferred. However our choice is Laaheb (Roger Varian/ Richard Hills), who ran well in Dubai last time, is very consistent and has a good course record.

Several of the runners in the Palace House Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.45 also ran at the Meydan meeting, notably Iver Bridge Lad (James Ryan/ Jimmy Quinn), who has been in great form in England this spring but possibly needs 6 furlongs, and Prohibit (Robert Cowell/ Dettori). Astrophysical Jet (Ed McMahon) was much improved last yr after being switche to the minimum distance and won 3 of his 4 races, while Borderlescott (Robin Bastiman/ Luke Morris) is another very consistent sort who has been placed in the last two runnings of this race. Sole Power (Eddie Lynam/ Wayne Lordan) was a 100/1 winner of the Nunthorpe last year, but that was possibly a fluke, while Arctic Fling (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), the only 3yo in the field, is very speedy and represents a team in top form. There are quite a few possibilities here, but Frankie has a good record when riding for Cowell and we make Prohibit our selection.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Proponent - Green Destiny - Kay Gee Be
2. Race: Laaheb - Dandino - Campanologist
3. Race: Frankel - Pathfork - Roderic O`Connor
4. Race: Astrophysical Jet - Sole Power - Borderlescott
5. Race: Commended - Forjatt - Seal Rock
6. Race: Cai Shen - Namibian - Ocean War
7. Race: Sikeeb - Crown Counsel - Darej

Royal Wedding at Fontwell!

readers may be dimly aware that there is a Royal Wedding somewhere today - that is correct, as the 9yo gelding of that name, trained by Nick Gifford and ridden by Liam Treadwell, runs under top weight in the handicap chase over 2 3/4 miles at 18.30 CET at Fontwell Park. He is a CD winner and must have a fair chance in this company, but as he is bound to be backed by coincidence hunters, he is likely to start at an artificially short price. A more interesting bet here at a much better price could be German-bred First Smash (Lawnay Hill/ Harry Skelton) in the handicap hurdle at 20.05. He is closely related to First Stream (Howard Johnson/ Henry Brooke), who runs in the stayers´handicap hurdle at 18.10 at Perth on the final day of their big spring meeting. He could also run well at long odds. The card is not as strong here as on the two previous days. but the strong Irish challenge in almost every race must not be overlooked. In the main event, the Highland National over 3 miles 7 furlongs at 17.35, 5 of the 13 runners are trained in Ireland. Gordon Elliott has already won 5 races at this meeting, and despite his poor recent form, his Kells Castle (Brian Hughes) looks a likely candidate here, as he seems to reserve this best form for this track.
Those still looking for a royal connection today should check out the 2yo maiden at 16.50 at Leicester, where the well-bred Free Verse (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) makes his debut. He is owned and bred by the Queen, whose gormless grandson is the lead actor in the ceremony at Westminster Abbey. Perhaps the owner will be able to take a few minutes off from her official duties this afternoon to nip down to the local betting shop and watch the race on TV.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: High Jack - Psi - Victory Surge
2. Race: Lord Liath - Gtaab - Baroque Star
3. Race: Free To Air - Katalak - Midnight Diamond
4. Race: Rare Symphony - Magic Prospect - Princely Hero
5. Race: King Of Leon - She`S Humble - Najca De Thaix
6. Race: Rossbrin - Little Roxy - Aconitum

6 meetings today

6 meetings today -3 on the flat and 3 over jumps- but none of great importance. The best racing comes from Perth, which stages the second day of a 3 day meeting. The handicap chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.50 CET has attracted a good field. Safari Adventures (Lucinda Russell/ Campbell Gillies) and Door Boy (Howard Johnson/ Paul Gallagher) were both pulled up in the Racing Post Chase. The former led for a long way on that occasion and in this slightly lesser company is expected to do much better. Roudoudou Ville (Vic Dartnall/ Jack Doyle) is much improved and has won his last two starts with the greatest of ease; he is rated the main threat. Two German-breds on the card have each-way chances, Platin Grounds (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) at 15.50 and Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) at 17.50; neither has been able to catch the judge´s eye for a long time, but they have been dropped to a lenient weight.
The flat racing at Bath this afternoon and Brighton this evening are very low on quality, but two horses we have been watching for ages are worth a mention. Our favourite veteran, the 14yo The Tatling runs in the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.10 at Bath. This is his 156th race and he has 16 runs and 45 places to his credit. We ar sure that he has another race in him (and will then probably be retired), and this could be it. The one time German classic winner Aviso (David Evans/ Martin Lane) runs in the mile handicap at 20.35 at Brighton. He has been racing without much success on the all-weather, but needs to show only a glimpse of his old ability to score here.
The Irish flat meeting this evening at Tipperary has some interesting entries, especially in the maiden races. Rose Bonheur (Kevin Prendergast/ Declan McDonough) has been runner-up on l3 career starts, notably when 2nd of 27 to the smart Sing Softly at the Curragh; she can get her head in front at 18.55. Cannon Hill (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) was runner-up to Casamento here last August and has not run since; as the winner is expected to play a major role in th 2,000 Guineas in Saturday, this form must give him a good chance in the 9 furlongs race at 20.25, although there are some decent opponents. The beautifully-bred Wonder of Wonders (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan) ran poorly last time but should still be capable to taking the fillies maiden over 1 1/2 miles at 21.25.

Betting forecast Perth:
1. Race: Renard D`Irlande - Sounds Of Thunder - Rumble Of Thunder
2. Race: Cayo Levantado - Rossini`S Dancer - Columbus Secret
3. Race: Western Bound - Lewlaur Supreme - Crop Walker
4. Race: Roudoudou Ville - Stormin Exit - King Edmund
5. Race: Sir Bathwick - Through The Mist - Scotch Warrior
6. Race: Shammick Boy - Martin Scruff - Attaglance

Sadlers Wells dies at 30

Sadlers Wells, arguably the most successful stallion ever to stand in Europe, died yesterday at Coolmore, Ireland at the age of 30. He had retired from active stud duties 3 years ago, but left behind a legacy which will probably never be equalled. The son of Northern Dancer was a top-class racehorse (winner of the Irish 2,000 Guineas, Eclipse and Irish Champion) but not a champion; however as a stallion he soon outclassed all others, with 6 individual Group One winners in his first crop. In the meantime his own sons have become successful stallions,
e.g. Galileo, sire of current top 3yo Frankel. All told Sadlers Wells was 14 times leading sire in England/ Ireland, an all-time record which is unlikely to be broken.

Ascot today

Ascot stages its first flat racing of the season today with a strong card, the highlight of which is the Group Three Sagaro Stakes over 2 miles at 16.40 CET. Four of the 8 runners ran against each other over 1 3/4 miles at Nottingham last time, where The Betchworth Kid (Alan King/ Hayley Turner) got up on the line to defeat the Queen´s Free Agent (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) by a short head, with Askar Tau (Marcus Tregoning/ George Baker) 3rd and Akmal (John Dunlop/ Richard Hills) 5th. The winner had been racing over hurdles and probably had a fitness advantage then and we do not expect this result to be repeated. In fact we find it quite possible that Akmal, who appeared to need the race badly and whose stable is now coming into form, will come out best this time. The 4yo Theology (Jeremy Noseda/ William Buick), getting weight from all the other, looks a big danger; he ran his best race over this CD when beaten by a short head in the Queen´s Vase. Irish raider Rajik (Cha rlie Swan/ Declan McDonogh), 4th in the Irish St. Leger when last seen, is also interesting, but we cannot imagine that Cesarewitch winner Aaim to Prosper (Brian Meehan/Louis-Philippe Beuzelin) has a chance in this company.
Two listed races back up the main feature. The mile race at 16.05 should in theory go to Zacinto (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), whose 4th place in last year´s Queen Anne Stakes - only 4 lengths behind Goldikova- is easily the best form on offer. However he has not won for almost 2 years and seems not to be the most reliable character. Eton Forever (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan),an easy handicap winner at Doncaster, is possible danger, but we cannot fancy St.Moritz (David and Adrian Nicholls), who won a similar race at Doncaster but has to concede weight all round now.
Weight could also be the deciding factor in the 3yo race over 6 furlongs at 17.15. Libranno, one of three Richard Hannon runners and the choice of Richard Hughes, has the best form here. He was runner-up to Native Khan (runs in the 2,000 Guineas Saturday) in the Craven Stakes last time, but now has to concede 12 lbs to the filly Margot Did (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner), 5th last time in the Cheveley Park, and this task may be beyond him.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Magic City - Miss Work Of Art - Dawn Lightning
2. Race: Hezmah - Flood Plain - Byrony
3. Race: Zacinto - Eton Forever - St Moritz
4. Race: Free Agent - Rajik - Akmal
5. Race: Libranno - Margot Did - Marine Commando
6. Race: Lord Aeryn - Guest Book - Rezwaan

5 U.K. meetings today

the cards in Britain today, 3 on the flat and 2 over jumps, are very low level and in addition there are some extremely small fields, especially at Exeter´s N.H. meeting, where only 26 horses are entered in the 6 races.
Much more competitive jumps racing comes from Sedgefield, where the Durham National at 20.15 CET over 3 1/2 miles is the main feature. Esme TRides Again (CR Wilson POaddy Aspll) was an asy cours winnr last tim, but meets stronger opposition now, and the result could lie between Western Gale (Mike Todhunter/ James Reveley) and Matmata de Tendron (Tony Crook/ Paul Gallagher), who finished 1/2 at Wetherby last time. Although the latter is now 4 lbs better off, we expect the former to come out on top again, and he can complete a double for his jockey, who can also score on course specialist Benny be Good, trained by his father, in the 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 19.40. German-bred Bocciani (Brian Ellison/ JP O´Farrell) has been in great form this year, but faces a stiff task under top weight in the handicap hurdle at 19.10 and we have a slight preference for Empress Orchid (Donald McCain/ APLane).
The racing on the two all-weather tracks today looks very undistinguished, but the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.10 at Yarmouth (on turf) is quite interesting. Saeed bin Suroor has so far this season been upstaged by his fellow Godolphin trainer Mahmoud al Zarooni, but he can get one back here with the very lightly-raced Asraab (Frankie Dettori). Bawaardi (Richard Fahey/ Freddie Tylicki) looks the main danger, as top-weight Gouray Girl (Walter Swinburn/ Shane Kelly) and Excellent Guest (George Margarson/ Philip Robinson) are both running for the first time this year.

Betting forecast Sedgefield:
1. Race: Scriptwriter - City Ground - Ouest Eclair
2. Race: Empress Orchid - The Tiddly Tadpole - Odin`S Raven
3. Race: Benny Be Good - Hollo Ladies - Film Festival
4. Race: Western Gale - Matmata De Tendron - Work Boy
5. Race: San Deng - Ascendant - Diklers Oscar
6. Race: Tricksofthetrade - Evans Wood - Nine Carrot Gold

Fairyhouse Easter meeting: third day

the Fairyhouse Easter meeting is on its third and final day today, and while the card is less inspiring than on the first 2 days, it is certainly far better than anything on offer in Britain. Once again the fast ground will be a problem, as almost all the Irish form we have so far is on soft/ heavy going.
Rigidity (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) looked smart when winning at Gowran Park in February, but flopped at odds-on next time. A return to his earlier form would give him an excellent chance in the Grade Three 4yo hurdle at 17.55 CET, although Jessica Harrington´ s filly Chaperoned (Robbie Power) could be a major threat.
Willie Mullins saddles two likely sorts in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 18.30, the penalised Gagewell Flyer (Ruby Walsh), who ran poorly at Cheltenham after winning 3 successive races in Ireland, and the lightly-raced Lambro /Emmet Mullins). However we think than an each-way bet on the consistent Gift of Dgab (Tony Martin/ Davy Condon) might be the answer here.
The valuable handicap chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at 19.35 looks very open, with the two top-weights Psycho (Martin/ Davy Russell) and Scotsirish (Mullins/ Walsh) the class acts. and quite a few out of the handicap as a result. They include Peak Raider, who has win his last 3 races, but is taking a jump in class here. This could be another family winner, as he is trained by Tommy Carberry and is ridden by his youngest son Peter, whil siblings Paul and Nina also ride in a race named after their great-uncle. However our fancy is Osana (O`Grady/ McNamara) who looks very nicely handicapped on his best form.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Viking Splash - Drawn N Drank - Rudi Trucker
2. Race: Burnt Oil Babe - Drive On Jim - Captain Dreyfus
3. Race: Rigidity - Chaperoned - Twinlight
4. Race: Gagewell Flyer - Lambro - Last Instalment
5. Race: Alaivan - Jack Cool - Doctor Deejay
6. Race: Scotsirish - Peak Raider - Osana
7. Race: Theatre Guide - Sarsfield`S Ride - Pique Sous

Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse

The Irish Grand National over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 17.55 CET at Fairyhouse is the big race of the day, but looks extremely difficult, as hardly any of the runners have raced over this distance and also very few of them have run on ground as firm as this. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the heavily-backed ante-post favourite, Gordon Elliott´s Beautiful Sound, is only second reserve and no means certain to get a run. If he gets into the field, he would be our selection, as he is one of the few who tick most of the right boxes.
Leading owner JP McManus obviously want to win this, as he has no fewer than 6 entries, with stable jockey Tony McCoy partnering Nicky Henderson´s Quantitativeasing; he could go well but in our opinion is not well handicapped. Top-weight Synchronised (Jonjo O´Neill/ Alan Crowe) is the class act here, having won the Welsh equivalent and finished 3rd in the Midlands race, but he needs easier ground, amd possibly stable-companion Sunnyhillboy (Richie McLernon) has a better chance. Prince Erik (Dermot Weld/Davy Condon) is one of many moving up quite dramatically in distance. Willie Mullins saddles 4 runners, with Ruby Walsh booked for Shakervilz, who has been off the track for almost a year; possibly Some Target, ridden by the trainer´s nephew Emmet, and who ran quite well at Cheltenham, is the Mullins pick. Another to consider is Caim Hill (Philip Fenton/ Brian O´Connell), but if he runs, Beautiful Sound is our choice.
The card opens with a Grade Two hurdle race over 2 1/2 miles at 15.35. This is a very hot event, but we hope that Blackstairmountain (Mullins/ Walsh) can recover his best form and score here. Donnas Palm (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) and the mare Voler la Vedette (Colm Murphy/ Andrew Lynch) are the main dangers. Mullins and Walsh can follow up with Dare to Doubt in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 16.45.
Walsh has another winning chance on Paul Nolan´s Aura about You in the mares listed chase at 19.00. Last time out she beat odds-on favourite For Bill (Michael Winters/ Davy Russell) in a similar event at Limerick. However the latter is now 6 lbs better off and can reverse the placings, while Sway (O´Neill/ McCoy) and Coscorrig (Dessie Hughes/ Ben Cooper) are also not out of it.
There is also jumps racing in Ireland at Cork, but all 7 races are restricted to amateur riders and our advice to punters is to leave this meeting alone.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Voler La Vedette - Donnas Palm - Stonemaster
2. Race: Kerb Appeal - Datokepe - Clan Tara
3. Race: Dare To Doubt - Rathlin - Prima Vista
4. Race: Kandinski - Corbally Ghost - Roebuck
5. Race: Prince Erik - Quantitativeeasing - Some Target
6. Race: Torphichen - Osirixamix - Armaramak
7. Race: Coscorrig - Aura About You - For Bill
8. Race: Askmeroe - Guts For Garters - Red Basil

Classic trials at Longchamp

Longchamp is another top track to hold classic trials today, with 3 group races restricted to 3yo´s and all the top French stables well represented. The Wertheimer brothers, trainer Freddie Head and jockey Olivier Peslier could well take the Group Two Prix Noailles over 2000 metres at 14.30 CET with Moonyr and the Prix de Fontainebleau (1 mile, Group Three) at 15.40 with Salto, who looks the best bet of the day. He also saddles Hamdan al Maktoum´s Albaraah with son-in-law Davy Bonilla in the saddle in the Prix de la Grotte (1 mile, Group Three, fillies), but here we prefer Gestüt Ammerland´s Golden Lilac (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), unbeaten in 2 starts last season and a daughter of Galileo out of Group One mare Grey Lilas.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Shamar - Annual Leave - Manjakani
2. Race: Desert Crop - Avongrove - Dorade Rose
3. Race: Grand Vent - Durer - Moonyr
4. Race: Ball Prince - Zamind - Lonsome Drive
5. Race: Barocci - Glaswegian - Salto
6. Race: Espirita - Golden Lilac - Glorious Sight
7. Race: Hannah Montana - O`Kelly Hammer - Riquita
8. Race: Stelrock - Cut Into The Rock - Marosh

Fairyhouse and 3 more N.H. meetings

Plenty of action for N.H. fans today with easily the best cards in Ireland. Fairyhouse begins its 3 day Easter meeting and the highlight is the Grade One Powers Gold Cup, a 2 1/2 miles chase at 17.05 CET. German-bred Noble Prince (Paul Nolan/ Tony McCoy) won in excellent style at the Cheltenham Festival and a repetition of that form should see him take this. Loosen my Load (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) was third that day, beaten 9 lengths, and there seems to reason why he should reverse that form, but Realt Dubh (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) is more of a threat. The question mark here is Mikael d´Haguenet (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), who looked destined for the top when winning 6 successive races in 2008/9 but has been struggling this season. Nolan and McCoy can also win the Grade Two mares novice hurdle at 15.20 with Golden Sunbird, although Our Girl Sally (Mrs. Dobbs/ Barry Geraghty) could be a problem; she has won her last 5 races but possibly needs softer going.

There are only 5 runners in the Imperial Call Chase at 17.10 at Cork (otherwise there are mainly huge fields at the two irish meetings) which should lie between Roberto Goldback (Jessica Harrington/ Robbie Power) and Let Yourself Go (Adrian Maguire/ Steve Hassett), both of whom also prefer more cut in the ground. However Roberto gets weight from his rival and should be good enough. Salesin (Boots and Slippers Madden) is the likely favourite for the handicap hurdle at 16.50; the Lomitas gelding is unbeaten at this track, but we give slight preference to Araucaria (Jon Kiely/TC Carroll), who looked useful when winning twice in the autumn and has been running in good company since.

There are some small fields at the two British N.H. meetings, and the quality is poor as well. German-bred Lava Lamp (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) - a half-brother to Group One winner Lady Marian- made an excellent debut over hurdles when 5th to top-class Zarkendar at Kempton, and that form gives him an outstanding chance of winning the maiden hurdle at 15.00 at Plumpton. Trainer and jockey can follow up with Alla Svelta at 16.10 and also have a chance with Peaceful Means in the handicap hurdle at 17.15; however here we prefer bottom weight Just Beware (Zoe Davison/ Gemma Gracey-Davison), a course specialist, and Ragdolliana (M.McGrath/ Leighton Aspell), runner-up over this CD last time.

The horse that beat Ragdolliana, Galliotto (Gary and Jamie Moore) runs in the opener at Towcester, which should give us a line to the form. We also like Meridiem (Sean Regan/ Chris Honour) who showed improved form to win over this CD last time and can improve further to take the handicap hurdle at 16.25. Nicky Henderson continues in great form and can land a short-priced double here with Dancing Dude at 17.20 and Brave Alliance an hour later; Andrew Tinkler does the steering. .

Sandown and Musselburgh

Sandown and Musselburgh, who raced yesterday, both continue with their Easter programme today. Sandown, where all 6 races on the card are restricted to 3yo´s, has easily the best sport on offer, headed by the Group 3 bet365 Classic Trial over 10 furlongs at 16.50 CET. This looks quite open with almost all the 10 runners in with a chance. Dordogne (Mark Johnston/ Frankie Dettori) ran on with great determination when scoring at Newmarket over 9 furlongs, but we would not be surprised to see Specific Gravity (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), a close 4th then, reverse the form over an extra furlong. Richard Hannon´s 2 runners Auld Burns (Jamie Spencer) and Measuring Time(Richard Hughes) were first and second in a valuable sales race, also at the Craven meeting, and there should be little between them today. Aidan O´Brien sends over Jackaroo (Ryan Moore), though we cannot imagine that he is one of the stable´s main Derby hopes, and the same applies to Godolphin´ s Genius Beast (Mahmood al Zarooni/ Ahmed Ajtebi). However runners from these powerful stables can never be discounted. This is definitely a race to watch but not to bet on.

A better betting race is the Esher Cup, a mile handicap at 16.20, which is normally won by a decent performer. John Gosden has won this for the last two years and has good prospects with top-weight Trasury Devil (William Buick), owned by Andrew Lloyd-Webber, who finished last in a French Group One last time on very soft ground, but is expected to be much better suited by the faster going today. Tazahum (Sir Michael Stoute/ Richard Hills), runner-up to the useful Dubawi Gold at Ascot last October, and John Biscuit (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune) look the main dangers. We certainly expect the last-named to reverse all-weather form with Indian Jack (Alan Bailey/ Luke Morris), who has won his last 3 races. With Henry Cecil now in such good form, we also hope to see Gestüt Ammerland´s Nordic Spruce win the mile race at 15.45.

The best race at Musselburgh is the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.10. Richard Fahey is another trainer in great form, and his stable jockey Paul Hanagan partners Mo Mhuirnin here, while Newmarket challenger Soorah (William Haggas/ Joe Fanning) has been off since September, but has a chance on 2010 form. However our selection is 9yo Malcheek (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) - out of a Surumu mare- who has been in great form on the all-weather (4th in a listed race last time) but is also effective on turf.

Very small fields today

With the ground firming up everywhere, and no sign of any rain in the foreseeable future, there are some vry small fields at today´s 3 British meetings and also the likelihood of non-runners. Virtually no race in the U.K. today offers normal each-way betting. John Best and Luke Morris can land a double at Folkestone this afternoon. Stone of Folca looks almost unbeatable in the 3yo maiden at 15.00 CET, while top-weight Mister Bit, in first time blinkers has a chance in the 9 furlongs handicap at 17.00. The 5 furlongs hamdicap at 16.30 sees Black Baccara (Phil McEntee/ Kieren Fallon) and Magical Speedfit (George Magarson/ Simon Pearce) in opposition again. They met over this CD 9 days ago with the former coming out on top by 1/2 length, but the latter could well reverse the placings this time on 6 lbs better terms.

The other two British meetings are over jumps. At Wincanton, Tony McCoy could land a double with Moghaayer for Nicky Henderson at 15.40 and German-bred Mauritino for Jonjo O´Neill at 16.40; the latter has already won twice in the past 11 days and loves this fast ground. A 7lbs penalty should not stop him completing a quick hat-trick. Upham Atom (new trainer Kate Buckett/ Liam Treadwell) won here nicely 3 weeks ago and can follow up in the staying handicap chase at 16.10, while Skippers Lad (Colin and Joe Tizzard), runner-up to him then, can go one better at 17.10. At Ludlow, Courella (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), who was a 15 lengths winner at Hereford yesterday, has been declared for the novice chase at 15.50. If he turns out again, he can make a quick return to the winner´s circle, even though on ratings he is inferior to today´s opponents. Course specialist Tyup Pompey (Ann Price/ Lee Stephens) was an easy CD winner here last time, and with bottom weight can follow up in the handicap chase at 16.50; obvious danger is top-weight Japanese -bred Sunday City, who has not run for 5 months but is the class act in this field.

There is mixed card this evening at Clonmel in Ireland: 3 flat races, 3 over hurdles and a bumper. With maximum fields in most events, there are more horses entered here than in the 3 U.K. meetings put together! Domination (Charlie Byrnes/Davy Russell) has an obvious chance in the maiden hurdle at 19.35; he was an easy winner over this CD in February, but was disquaified after failing a dope test. Clouded Thoughts (Jessica and Katie Harrington) has finished 4th in all 3 bumper races, but now the ground is better, can get his head in front at 21.05.

Derby trial at Epsom

Epsom opens its doors for the first time in 2011 today and Investec, who also sponsor the Derby here in 6 weeks time, are sponsoring the entire card. Main event is the Derby trial over 10 furlongs at 16.10 CET, but with only 5 runners, this is not much of a genuine classic trial, and it should mainly concern Musawama (John Gosden/ Richard Hills), already winner of two minor races on the all-weather this year and expected to go on to better things, and Borug (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), not disgraced when 3rd at Meydan last time. The Great Metropolitan handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 15.35 used to be a really important race, when run over much further, but is now a pale shadow of its former self and basically just another handicap; Kings Troop (Alan King/ Ryan Moore) is an interesting runner here, having won both his starts over this CD. The City & Suburban handicap, over 10 furlongs, is much more valuable and a much better race. Gosden has two runners here, Beachf ire (William Buick), winner of 4 of his 5 starts so far, and Taqleed (Richard Hills), who would have started favourite for the Lincoln, but was pulled out at the last moment because of the fast ground. However the going may well be even faster here. Three challengers from Yorkshire should pay a leading role here, Mark Johnston´ s pair Tartan Gigha (Kieren Fallon) and Sand Skier (Frankie Dettori) and Richard Fahey´s Ingelby Spirit (Paul Hanagan), an easy winner at Pontefract last time. In a very open race we give slight preference to Sand Skier, who ran well last time at Deauville.

The best race on the all-weather at Southwell is the mile handicap for fillies at 16.55, in which we expect the two top-weights Gracious Melange (Marco Botti/ Jimmy Quinn) and the unbeaten Maristar (Ger Butler/ Darryll Holland) to dominate. There is more all-weather racing this evening at Kempton, where there are some interesting 3yo´s in action at 20.50. Mahmoud al Zarooni has made an excellent start to the season in England, and his runner Parlour Games (Ahmed Ajtebi), as a son of Monsun, should be suited by the longer distance, but Brown Panther (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote) is by another German sire Shirocco and should be equally at home over this trip.

The other evening meeting is at Newcastle, where ex-GermanTropenfeuer (Jimmy Moffatt/ Paddy Aspell) makes his British debut at 19.05. A winner last year at Deauville, he could well run here, as the opposition does not look strong. Best bet here is Mark Johnston´s Munbaher (Tagdh O´Shea) in the 10 furlongs maiden at 19.35; a beaten favourite on his debut when runner-up at Pontefract, he needs to show only slight improvement to score here.

The only jumps action today is at Hereford, where Sizing Ireland (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) can get favourite backers off to a good start by winning the maiden hurdle at 15.20; he is nowhere nearly as good as some of the other "Sizing" horses, but does not need to be to win this.

Epsom - betting forecast:
1. Race: Breathless Kiss - Silaah - Beat The Bell
2. Race: Harlestone Times - Zigato - Dynamic Drive
3. Race: Borug - Musawama - Weapon Of Choice
4. Race: Beachfire - Ingleby Spirit - Sand Skier
5. Race: Danish Pastry - Barney Rebel - Calaf
6. Race: Greenflash - Uncle Dermot - Baqaat

5 meetings today

The best race today is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.10 CET at Pontefract and with 13 runners engaged this looks very tricky. Hoof It (Mick Easterby/ Kieren Fallon), owned by golfer Lee Eastwood, is the likely favourite after winning 4 times last season, but he is now on a very high mark and his best form is all at 5 furlongs. Discanti (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) looks dangerous off bottom weight, while 10yo Flipando (David Barron/ Graham Gibbons), is not the most consistent but always capable of winning in this grade. However our choice is Internationaldebut (Micky Fenton), one of two runners saddled by Paul Midgley, who always run well at this track and was runner-up in a large field on his seasonal debut at Doncaster.The other interesting race here is the marathon handicap over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 16.40. Top-weight Markington (Peter Bowen/ Fallon) has been hurdling, like several of these, but is a course specialist and should go close. Descaro (David O´Meara/ Silv estre de Sousa) won here last time over 2 1/4 miles, with 5 of these opponents behind; he has gone up 4 lbs for that, and we give slight preference to Chocolate Caramel (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), 5th on that occasion, whose trainer and jockey are currently enjoying a purple patch.

The remaining 3 flat meetings today are very low on quality. At Southwell this afternoon, Masai Moon (Rod and James Millman), who has been off the track for 10 months, might be capable of winning the 7 furlongs handicap at 17.30, while Spirit of Coniston (Midgley/ Tony Culhane), who has not won for ages, showed signs of returning to form last time and could take the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.00.

There is also poor all-weather racing this evening at Wolverhampton, while on turf Bath reopens for the season, also in the evening. With no rain for weeks and no watering system, the ground at Bath will be very fast. The most popular winner of the day would undoubtedly be the 14yo The Tatling, having his 155th start in the 5 1/2 furlongs hanmdovap at 20.30. Trainer Milton Bradley is expected to retire the old boy once he has scored his 17th career victory. This is certainly possible this evening, but not probable.

The only jumps racing today is at Fontwell, again with very little quality. The 2 1/4 miles handicap chase at 17.50 could go to Bid Art (Jamie Snowden/ Daryl Jacob), who won the race last year and looked like winning last time before falling two out.

Moderate Monday card

A typically moderate Monday card today and some very small fields at the two N.H. meetings as well.Only 4 line up in the handicap hurdle at 16.00 CET at Exeter, which should lie between the two top-weights and last-time-out winners Laustra Bad (David Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell) and Midnight Opera (Neil Mulholland/ Mark Quinlan), and 4 again in the novice chase an hour later; Rebel du Maquis (Paul Nicholls/ Ryan Mahon is the favourite here, but we are not sure that he can concede the weight to Irish raider Lady Hillingdon (Paul Gilligan/ Andrew Lynch). German-bred Mauritino (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) has no penalty for winning at Wincanton last week and can go in again at 18.00.

Exeter - betting forecast:
1. Race: Rhyton - Jewellery - Robello
2. Race: Laustra Bad - Midnight Opera - Forest Rhythm
3. Race: Victory Parade - Ours - Louis Pasteur
4. Race: Rebel Du Maquis - Lady Hillingdon - Chase Gate
5. Race: Takeroc - Lord Henry - Double Mead
6. Race: Mauritino - Allformary - Special Cuvee


There are also several German-breds in action at Towcester, 3 of them in the handicap hurdle at 16.10: Sadlers Star (Michael Blake/ Denis O´Regan), L´Homme de Nuit (Jim Best/ A Bird) and Glorybe (Chris Bealby/ Tom Messenger). The last two probably need soft going, so we prefer the first-named, who also has the best form of the trio, but it is a very open race. Speedy Directa (Milton Harris/ Charlie Poste) is inconsistent, but must have an each-way chance in the opener at 15.10, while Sagunt (Jo Davis/ Tom Siddall) has only Ballabrook (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) to beat half an hour later. The penalised Lifestyle (Nicky Henderson/ Felix de Giles) looks almost unbeatable in the novice hurdle at 17.10, but his odds will be very short.

Towcester - betting forecast:
1. Race: Deejan - Earl Of Thomond - Speedy Directa
2. Race: Ballabrook - Sagunt - Mr Johnson
3. Race: Rawaaj - Final Flyer - Kadouchski
4. Race: Jolly Boys Outing - De Bansha Man - Antonius Caesar
5. Race: Lifestyle - Omokoroa - Red Whisper
6. Race: Papradon - Red Jester - Wee Ziggy
7. Race: Skenakilla Cross - Final Cast - Wilde Ruby


David Nicholls has hit form and could be the trainer to follow at Redcar. He has 3 entries in the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.20, of whom Jarrow- an ex-Mark Johnston horse ridden by son Adrian- could be the best, and can also take the apprentice race half an hour later with Dolly Parton (Leonna Mayor).

Redcar - betting forecast:
1. Race: Gone By Sunrise - Van Go Go - First Bid
2. Race: Spiders Of Spring - Queen Of The Hop - Ciara Boo
3. Race: Mother Jones - Clara Zetkin - Moral Issue
4. Race: Buzz Law - Chosen Character - Bosambo
5. Race: Dark Lane - Jarrow - Doctor Parkes
6. Race: Dolly Parton - Frequency - Winning Draw
7. Race: Spavento - Lady Chloe - Wiseman`s Diamond


The 1 1/2 mile handicap at 19.20 at Windsor´s evening meeting has the biggest field of the day -16 runners- and looks wide open. New Code (Gary and Ryan Moore) could start favourite; he won 4 races last year, but they were moderate affairs and he has gone up quite a bit in the weights. Lightly-raced Eshtiyaar (David Evans/ Cathy Gannon) has been placed on all 3 starts and begins handicapping over a very low mark. Top-weight Advisor (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer) has not run on the flat for nearly 2 years and has been hurdling for Paul Nicholls. Now back with Bell, he would have a good chance on his 3yo form, but is possibly best watched for now. Our fancy is the 9yo mare Bavarica (Julia Feilden/ Adam Beschizza); she likes firm ground and has gone well here and could be an interesting each-way bet at a decent price.

Windsor - betting forecast:
1. Race: Best Terms - Mrs Mop - Supreme Quest
2. Race: Pretty Diamond - Ilissos - September Draw
3. Race: Eshtyaaq - Saborido - Bavarica
4. Race: Wooden King - Elusive Hawk - The Wee Chief
5. Race: Purification - Dressing Room - Tiger Webb
6. Race: Romantic Wish - Silverware - My Vindication

3 jumps meetings today

There are huge fields today at the Irish jumps meeting at Gowran Park, and we hope to see German-bred Catch Me (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) take the 3 mile hurdle race at 16.40 CET. He has not won for 18 months, but has mainly been racing in top company (including over fences) and can get back to winning ways today. The same trainer and jockey can also take the chase at 17.15 with Torphichen, who has been in good form both on the flat and over jumps. The main opposition comes from Tawaagg (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), but his team probably has better prospects with Shifa in the maiden hurdle at 15.35. This one has been placed on all 4 Irish starts - heavily backed each time- and can get his head in front now.

Gowran Park - betting forecast:
1. Race: Menwaal - Some Gem - Take A Shot
2. Race: Shifa - Jinglealltheways - Jeunopse
3. Race: Molko Jack - Mr Eko - Another Ambition
4. Race: Catch Me - On The Way Out - Allee Garde
5. Race: Torphichen - See U Bob - Tawaagg
6. Race: Doc O`Donnell - Ameretto Son - Fiery Oscar
7. Race: Folsom Blue - Jenari - Brown One
8. Race: Annus Maximus - Johannisberger - Tapaigh An Deis


The sport at the two U.K. tracks is very undistinguished with form horses few and far between. At Wetherby the two divisions of the novice hurdle at the end of the card are the most interesting events. Both Red Merlin (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), who runs at 18.45, and Waldvogel (Nicky Richards/ Dominic Elsworth), half an hour later, were useful flat horses who have taken well to hurdling, although it must be said that Waldvogel, a member of an excellent German family, spoilt his chances last time by poor jumping when a 9-2 on favourite at Wincanton.

Wetherby - betting forecast:
1. Race: Baraathen - Solway Blue - A Stones Throw
2. Race: Border Reiver - Ponchatrain - Authentic Act
3. Race: Sous Mix - Tower - Oscar Barton
4. Race: Matmata De Tendron - Wolf Moon - Dawn Ride
5. Race: Pugnacity - Some Catch - Lady Pacha
6. Race: Othermix - Riptide - Le Commencement
7. Race: Red Merlin - Jack The Gent - Little Hercules
8. Race: Waldvogel - Archie Rice - Solis


At Stratford, Richard Johnson can follow up yesterday´s Scottish Grand National victory by landing a double on top-weight Storm of Applause for Philip Hobbs at 16.15 and Laureate des Loges for Henry Daly at 16.50.

Stratford - betting forecast:
1. Race: Rushwee - Stapleton - Black Tor Figarro
2. Race: Ashfield`S Dream - Like Ice - Job One
3. Race: Storm Of Applause - Courella - Rory Boy
4. Race: Lesanda - Empress Orchid - Illysantachristina
5. Race: Dante`S Storm - Battlecry - Seymar Lad
6. Race: Leopard Hills - Tatispout - Katchmore
7. Race: Heezagrey - Fourpointone - The Iron Giant

2 listed races in Ireland

Today´s 3 jumps meetings are rather low key and easily the best racing of the day comes at the Irish flat meeting at Navan. Best horse on view is Aidan O´Brien´s Fame and Glory, whose string of big race victories includes the Irish Derby in 2009 and the Coronation Cup last year. A share in him has been sold to Fitri Hay and her retained jockey Jamie Spencer rides him in the listed Vintage Crop Stakes over 1 mile 5 furlongs at 17.05 CET. O´Brien has used this race in the past as a warm-up for the Ascot Gold Cup (Yeats won it twice en route to Ascot) and that is apparently Fame and Glory´s main target. On ratings he should not lose today, but we expect lightly-raced Nebula Storm (John Oxx/ Johnny Murtagh), whose trainer has won this race for the past 2 years, to show considerable improvement and he could take the runner-up spot. The listed Salsabil Stakes for 3yo fillies half an hour later should also mainly concern O´Brien and Oxx, who together account for more than half the f ield. O´Brien´ s main hope could be Gemstone (Colm O´Donoghue), runner-up to the smart Lolly for Dolly last time, while Oxx´ number one should be the Aga Khan´s Kirinda (Murtagh), who won her only start - a modest maiden at Dundalk- last season, but is also expected to show great improvement.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Balmont Mast - Catalpa Sail - Glendaragh
2. Race: Red Army Blues - Nidian - One Of Three
3. Race: Danziger - Ahimsa - An Ghalanta
4. Race: Fame And Glory - Fictional Account - Sense Of Purpose
5. Race: Gemstone - Kirinda - Spin
6. Race: Reasons Unknown - Spirit Of Cuba - Roi Du Boeuf
7. Race: Zanughan - It`S Freezing - Paint Your Wagon

Scottish Grand National at Ayr

The Scottish Grand National at Ayr over just over 4 miles at 16.25 CET is clearly not as important as the Aintree race run last week, but it is a major event in its own right and is the centrepiece of the best Scottish N.H. card of the year. With 28 runners it presents the usual problems, even though only 7 of them are in the handicap proper - top-weight Neptune Collonges (Paul Nicholls/ Tony McCoy) being set to concede 15 lbs or more all round. He is pretty smart, but we cannot see him successfully conceding so much weight to his stable companion The Minack (Ruby Walsh), but there are plenty of dangers. Merigo (Andrew Parker/ Timmy Murphy) won this last year, but runner-up Gone to Lunch (Jeremy Scott/ Nick Scholfield) - also runner-up in 2009- meets him on much better terms now. The bookmakers make Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry) favourite after his success over this trip at Cheltenham; Beshabar (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) was runner-up then and is now 5 lbs better off. Others to consider are Ouzbeck (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle) and Poker de Sivola (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee).

Gordon Elliott also saddles likely favourite Russian War (Carberry) in the handicap hurdle over 2 3/4 miles at 17.00, an easy winner at Aintree last week. Obviously he could go in again under 7 lbs more but we have been waiting for German-bred Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) and today he really does seem to have everything in his favour.

The Scottish Champion Hurdle at 15.50 is in fact a handicap, but it is still a pretty hot race and the field includes 3 runners from the real thing at Cheltenham- Overturn (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), 7th, Bygones of Brid (Karen McClintock/ Lee), 10th, and Mille Chief (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), last of 11. Overturn won this last year, but has gone up a massive 30 lbs in the weights since, while Mille Chief´s running at Cheltenham was too bad to be true and he can set the record right here, while Bygones of Brid meets the other two on much better terms now and cannot be discounted.

Nicky Henderson won the Future Champions novice chase at 15.20 last year and has a good chance of scoring again and his two runners Giorgio Quercus (Barry Geraghty) and Nadiya de la Vega (Andrew Tinkler) could well take the first two places.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Semi Colon - Franklino - Charingworth
2. Race: Giorgio Quercus - Stagecoach Pearl - Premier Sagas
3. Race: Mille Chief - Overturn - Sanctuaire
4. Race: Chicago Grey - Beshabar - The Minack
5. Race: Russian War - Bogside - Attaglance
6. Race: I`Msingingtheblues - I`M Delilah - Elite Land
7. Race: The Shoe - Winterwood - Cool Mission
8. Race: Fourth Estate - Frizzo - Toubeera

Frankel at Newbury

A strong card at Newbury today is headed by the Greenham Stakes, a Group Three race for 3yo´s over the straight 7 furlongs at 16.10 CET and an important classic trial. All eyes will be on Frankel (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), last years champion 2yo and unbeaten in 4 races including the Dewhurst Stakes. He is already hot favourite for the 2,000 Guineas and Derby (despite uncertain stamina) and will have to win this easily to maintain his position in the market. In theory he should be able to beat this opposition without too much fuss, but the form of Cecil´s runners this week does give some room for doubt. Strong Suit (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is a possible alternative. He was a smart 2yo, winner of the Coventry at Royal Ascot, but is well held on collateral form by Frankel; he is also not certain to get this trip as all his form is over 6 furlongs and he could be a sprinter. The favourite´s pacemaker Picture Editor (Cecil/ Ian Mongan) will probably set a strong pace as he stays well and he could easily run into a place at a big price.

The big betting race here is the Spring Mile, a handicap at 16.25 with 28 runners and obviously wide open. The Lincoln Handicap 2 weeks ago at Doncaster is often the best guide to this, in which case runner-up Brae Hill (Richard Fahey/ Jamie Spencer) and third-placed Dubai Hills (Bryan Smart/ Tom Eaves) must come into the reckoning, along with Manassas (Brian Meehan/ Louis-Philippe Beuzelin), who was 3rd in the consolation race at Doncaster.

The 3yo maiden over 1 mile 3 furlongs at 17.00 is a very interesting event, with some very well-bred newcomers, notably Henry Cecil´s pair Solar Sky (Mongan) and World Domination (Queally), but both Wayward Glance (Michael Bell/ Christophe Soumillon) and Suhaili (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan) showed great promise on their only 2yo outing and are also expected to make the grade in better company this year.

Otherwise the day could belong to Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore and we expect to see them to win the first 3 races with Modun at 14.35, Verdant in the Group Three John Porter Stakes at 15.05 and Cape Dollar in the Group Three Fred Darling, the fillies´ classic trial at 15.40.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Modun - All Action - Bourne
2. Race: Verdant - Allied Powers - Poet
3. Race: Cape Dollar - Pontenuovo - Rimth
4. Race: Frankel - Strong Suit - Shropshire
5. Race: Saint Pierre - Brick Red - Brae Hill
6. Race: World Domination - Suhaili - Fiorente
7. Race: Kirthill - Danehill Dante - Change The Subject
8. Race: Voodoo Prince - Colombian - Jumeira Field

Newbury and Ayr today

Plenty of racing today, with 5 meetings in the U.K. and two in Ireland, but the most interesting are the flat meeting at Newbury and the N.H. fixture at Ayr, both preludes to a much stronger card tomorrow featuring the sasoal but of Frankel and the Scottosh Grand National respectively.

There is no Frankel at Newbury today, but there is some quite competitive racing, difficult however for punters with a large field of 2yo maidens at 14.35 CET and 3 races for 3yo maiden fillies with very little form to go on. The best betting race is the 5 furlongs handicap at 17.55, which looks wide open. Tom Dascombe won this last year and we like his Noverre to Go (Richard Kingscote) this time; he is not the most consistent, but first time out may be the time to catch him, even though most of his form is at 6 furlongs. Secret Asset (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ Ryan Moore) ran a great race behind Iver Bridge Lad (ran well again yesterday), but Five Star Junior (Linda Stubbs/ Kieren Fallon) was only just behind and is now 4 lbs better off, so there should be little in it now.

Newbury - betting forecast:
1. Race: Regal Entrance - Magic City - Chunky Diamond
2. Race: El Muqbil - Attracted To You - Celebrity
3. Race: Misrepresent - Sure Route - Hezmah
4. Race: Caraboss - Imperial Pippin - Tarkeeba
5. Race: All Time - Dancing Rain - Highest
6. Race: Al Kazeem - Thimaar - Cai Shen
7. Race: Secret Asset - Noble Storm - Courageous
8. Race: Zakatal - Non Dom - Momkinzain


Most of the top N.H. trainers have sent teams up to Scotland for tomorrows big meeting and we expect Paul Nicholls to take today´s opener at 14.45 with Tonic Melysse (Ruby Walsh), while Nicky Henderson has good chances in the two following handicaps with Remember Now (Tony McCoy) - a half-brother to Binocular- at 15.20 and Master Fiddle (Barry Geraghty) half an hour later. The best handicap on the card is the 2 1/2 mile chase at 16.25. David Pipe´s I´msingingtheblues (McCoy) has top weight here, but he has been running in much stronger events and has slipped in the ratings, so we hope he can win his first race for 27 months here.

Ayr - betting forecast:
1. Race: Tonic Mellysse - Mason Hindmarsh - Miereveld
2. Race: Remember Now - Sure Josie Sure - Kaolak
3. Race: Master Fiddle - Yes Tom - Lively Baron
4. Race: I`Msingingtheblues - Nikos Extra - Osric
5. Race: Ruthenoise - Mister Stickler - Lightening Rod
6. Race: Alexander Road - Bunglasha Lady - More Equity
7. Race: Larks Lad - Stagecoach Opal - Aibrean

Newmarket Craven Meeting continues with top more 3yo´s

The Newmarket Craven Meeting continues today wth more high class racing and the main feature is the Craven Stakes for 3yo´s over a mile at 17.10 CET, a major trial for the 2,000 Guineas over this CD a fortnight on Saturday. However it must be said that only one winner of this race has gone on to Guineas glory in the last 30 years. Also yesterday´s results suggest that the Newmarket-trained runners are still backward compared to their Yorkshire colleagues. One Newmarket trainer who is already in good form is Ed Dunlop, and we expect him to take the feature with Native Khan (Kieren Fallon), 4th last time in the Racing Post Trophy on ground that was too soft for him. Conditions today should be ideal and he is a confident selection.

The other group race on the card is the Earl of Sefton Staks over 9 furlongs at 17.4, the only race of the whole meeting restricted to older horses. French challenger Polytechnicien (André Fabre/ Olivier Peslier) is the class act here and is fit enough, having beaten to smart Cirrus des Aigles last month at Saint-Cloud, but has to give away weight all round. We prefer Steele Tango (Roger Teal/ Ted Durcan), who put up some good performances in Dubai. Top-rated here is Elusive Pimpernel (John Dunlop/ Ryan Moore), but he has not run since finishing unplaced in last year´s 2,000 Guineas and may need the race.

The listed Abernant Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.35 is open to 3yo s and up, but in fact Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/ Dane O´Neill) is the only 3yo in the field of 13. Candy is an expert trainer of sprinters and he must be respected. Jimmy Styles (Clive Cox/ Adam Kirby) was a convincing winnr of similar race at Doncastr from Iver Bridge Lad (Jams Ryan/ Jimmy Quinn); he how has a 4 lbs penalty but could still cinfirm the form. Top-rated here is Society Rock (James Fanshawe/ Pat Cosgrave), but he was last seen out in the July Cup and is another one who may need the race.

The Tattersalls Millions 3yo Trophy over 10 furlongs at 16.00 is the most valuable race of the day. Mark Johnston and Richard Hannon together saddle half the field of 14 and jockey bookings suggest that Sadlers Risk (Joe Fanning) and Measuring Time (Richard Hughes) respectively are the best of their runners, but is is hard to be sure. The one to beat is Irish raider Together (Aidan O´Brien/ Colm O`Donoghue). The Wood Ditton Stakes for unraced 3yo´s at 15.25 is another difficult race to assess with no form to go on; there are some promising types entered here and on pedigree we like the look of Enjoy Today (Brian Meehan/ Martin Dwyer).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tea Cup - Royal Blush - Liesl
2. Race: Air Traffic - Arch Fire - England Rules
3. Race: Together - Measuring Time - Date With Destiny
4. Race: Society Rock - Genki - Inler
5. Race: Native Khan - Libranno - Yaseer
6. Race: Elusive Pimpernel - Forte Dei Marmi - Steele Tango
7. Race: Deity - Elraabeya - Heatherbird
8. Race: Labarinto - Poplin - Glencadam Gold

Rest of today´s racing

There is also a good jumps card at Cheltenham today, where all the top jockeys are in attendance. Ruby Walsh can win the main feature, a valuable handicap chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 16.55, with Paul Nicholl´s CD specialist Poquelin. This is not really a handicap, as Poquelin has to concede 20 lbs to the other 4 runners but is still pounds well in. Walsh can also go close on King´s Legacy in the handicap hurdle at 16.20, but here we prefer German-bred Ostland. The Lando gelding, second in the German Derby 3 years ago, has not yet won in England but ran a sound race last time at Kempton. Tony McCoy can counter with Jonjo O´Neill´s Galaxy Rock at 15.,45 and Warren Greatrex´ Paint the Clouds in the last race at 17.30.

Obviously the card at Catterick this afternoon cannot be compared to that at Newmarket, but Gottany O´s (Mick Channon/ Sam Hitchcott) scored with the greatest of ease at Wolverhampton a month ago and should be able to follow up in the conditions race for 3yo´s over 1 1/2 miles at 16.45; his trainer has won this race 4 times in the last 5 years. There is also racing this evening at Kempton (all-weather) and Southwell (N.H.)

Newmarket opens today with top 3yo´s

For many racing people, the flat season proper starts today with the Craven Meeting at Newmarket, and today´s card of 8 races - 7 of them restricted to 3yo´s - gives many members of the classic generation the chance to shine. Main feature is the Group Three Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7 furlongs for 3yo fillies, a trial for the 1,000 Guineas, and there is a strong field, headed by the penalised Maqaasid (John Gosden/ Richard Hills), winner of the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, and Ladies are Forever (Geoff Oldroyd/ Silvestre de Sousa), not far behind her then and now better off at the weights. Crying Lightening (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Jimmy Quinn) won in Dubai and has fitness on her side, but so does Irish challenger Sing Softly (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore), who has already won twice at the Curragh this season and looks the one to beat.

The listed European Free Handicap over the same trip at 16.35 is always won by a good horse and is a race often targeted by Barry Hills, who has won it for the last two years. His Rerouted with son Michael aboard clearly comes into the reckoning, but although there are only 6 runners, this is a very open race with all of them having good form. The listed Feilden Stakes over 9 furlongs at 17.45 is another decent race. Toolain (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan) is top-rated here, but we prefer Specific Gravity (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who looked very promising when winning his maiden at Nottingham last October.

Cecil and Queally are represented by debutant Midsummer Son in the 3yo maiden over 10 furlongs at 18.20 and this humble event could be the most interesting race of the day, as there is a huge whisper out for Midsummer Son, a half-brother by Monsun to multiple Group One winner Midday. Most valuable race on the card is the Tattersalls Millions 3yo Sprint over 6 furlongs at 16.00, which could well go to Neebras (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Mikael Barzalona), Godolphin´s first British runner of the year.

5 bad meetings today

It is hard to imagine worse racing than that which is on offer at today´ s 5 meetings - 3 on the flat in the afternoon, and two over jumps this evening. Not only is the standard low throughout, the quantity is as well with some very small fields, especially at Folkestone with only 37 runners in 7 races. Consistent Black Baccara (Phil McEntee/ Kieren Fallon) rarely wins but has found an easy opportunity here in the 5 furlongs handicap at 16.00 CET. She gets 6 lbs from the main danger, Dream Number (Willie Muir/ Martin Dwyer), who was a narrow winner at Lingfield last time. Ex-German Swordsman (Chris Gordon/ Chris Catlin) should have a good chance in the staying handicap half an hour later. He is coming off a break but likes this CD and as a son of Acatenango should have no problems with the fast ground.

At Wolverhampton, Royal Bajan (James Given/ Paul Mulrennan), who won over this CD on his lifetime debut 12 days ago, can follow up in the 3yo handicap over 5 furlongs at 15.20. Tiradito (Marco Botti/ Adam Kirby) could start favourite for the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.20, but has a poor strike rate and has been off the track since January. We prefer the tough Lastkingofscotland (Conor Dor/ Hayley Turner), who is running for the 10th time this year(!) but usually runs his race.

Another favourite to be wary of is Formulation (Hughie Morrison/ Jimmy Fortune) in the mile handicap at 17.40 at Southwell. He is still a maiden, and although his second place at Leicester last time reads well he is no good thing here. We will take a chance on Elusive Fame (Mark Johnston/ Jason Hart), who has been dropped in the weights, but usually goes well here. Johnston, easily the most successful trainer at Southwell, can also score with top-weight Record Breaker (Silvestre de Sousa) in the staying handicap half an hour earlier.

At Taunton this evening Qozak (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) looks a near certainty to win the novice chase at 18.15, but his price will reflect this. Nicholls can complete a treble with Vertige Dore (Timmy Murphy) at 18.45 and Teshali (James Cowley) an hour later. At Towcester, there are 12 runners - the biggest field of the day - in the mares novice hurdle at 18.30, but it should only concern the two penalised runners Sara´s Smile (representing the Grand National winning team of Donald McCain and Jason Maguire) and Balerina (Alan King/ Robert Thornton).

Rest of Aintree

The rest of the Aintree card is also extremely high class and starts with the Grade Two novice hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 14.45 CET, which sees the return of several horses that ran well at Cheltenham. Spirit Son (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) ran really well to be runner-up in the Supreme Novices, but although Cue Card (Colin and Joe Tizzard) finished behind him then, we hope to see the form reversed over this longer trip. The only 4yo Sam Winner (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) was 4th of 23 in the Triumph and is also not out of it.
Peddlers Cross won that race last year and today he is one of the favourites in a star-studded field for the Grade One Aintree Hurdle over the same distance at 15.50. On any other day this would be the highlight of the card as it has a wonderful field, headed by 2010 Champion Hurdle winner Binocular (Henderson/ McCoy) and Peddlers Cross (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), Oscar Whisky (Henderson/ Geraghty) and Thousand Stars (Willie Mullins/ Katie Walsh), 2nd 3rd and 4th in this year´s version. That was Peddlers Cross´ first ever defeat and he can get back on the winning trail today, although a Binocular in top form would also be hard to beat.

The Grade One novice chase at 15.15 could also go to the Henderson stable with Finians Rainbow (Geraghty), who ran a great race at Cheltenham, but we hope to see German-bred Ghizao (Nicholls/ Walsh), a big disappointment then, run much better this time. Starluck (Alan Fleming/ McCoy) was the best of these over hurdles; he has not been so convincing over fences, but if he can get his act together had a definite chance here.

The race after the Grand National is reserved for amateurs and conditionals, to give the pros a chance to get over their exertions and enjoy their champagne. It is a handicap hurdle over 2 miles and very open with 21 runners. Once again the Henderson and Nicholls stables are strongly represented with Eradicate (David Bass) and Tito Bustillo (Ryan Mahon) respectively, but the on to beat here has to be Plan A (Gordon Elliott/ Nina Carberry), whose jockey is far and away the most experienced rider in the race.

Grand National this afternoon at Aintree

Officially the name of the race is the John Smith´ s Grand National Handicap Chase, but everybody knows it simply as the Grand National, the world´s most famous race run over 4 1/2 miles and 30 jumps at 17.15 CET this afternoon at Aintree. The course is sold out (73,000 spectators), the weather is perfect and the race is possibly the most open ever - there are reasons for fancying all 40 runners and also reasons for rejecting them all. It is not clear who will start favourite - you can even bet on that! But unless there is a huge last-minute public gamble - as there was last year on Don´t Push It - the bookies are likely to go 10-1 the field.

And it is with Don´t Push It (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) that one has to begin, after all he won the race last year, giving trainer and jockey their first win in this event as well as owner JP McManus (who this time has 5 starters). He has clearly been trained solely with this race in mind ever since, but then so have most of the others. History is against Don´t Push It, as no horse has won twice running since Red Rum in 1974, and no top-weight has won since then either.

There are 12 Irish runners and in our view good prospects of an Irish victory. Willie Mullins has 3 runners, with The Midnight Club (Ruby Walsh) clearly the pick, while others with good chances are Vic Venturi (Dessie Hughes/ Andrew Lynch), Majestic Concorde (Dermot Weld/ Robbie McNamara), Bluesea Cracker (James Motherway/ brother Andrew McNamara), Oscar Time (Martin Lynch/ Sam Waley-Cohen) and Backstage (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry). Any of these would be a big story, especially Oscar Time, bidding to give Sam Waley-Cohen and his father Robert (the owner) an incredible double after their Cheltenham victory. However at the prices our preferences are Majestic Concorde and Vic Venturi.

Of the local hopes, Paul Nicholls, who is having a great meeting, saddles 4 runners, best of whom is What a Friend (Daryl Jacob), 4th in the Gold Cup last time, which is the best form in the race. His owner Sir Alex Ferguson however has to miss the race, as he will watching a football match. Another who is "well-in" according to the handicapper is Quinz (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who won the Racing Post Trophy after the weights were published, but in our view he does not have the experience to win a race like this. Big Fella Thanks (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) was 4th last year and he could well be placed again for his new owner and trainer. State of Play (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney) and Comply or Die (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy) have also run twice well in the race before and also merit consideration.

The most popular winners would probably be Character Bulding (John Quinn/ Nina Carberry), 7th last year, who could give Nina (sister of Paul) the first victory ever for a lady jockey, and Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), whose trainer is the son of the legendary Ginger McCain, who trained Red Rum to win the race 3 times in the 1970s. We have now mentioned 14 of the 40 runners and it is quoite possible that none of them will finish in the first 10 - or even finish! Such is the nature of this fantastic race - in the end luck will play a decisive role and we can only wish our readers good luck with their obligatory bets!

5 meetings today

Evening racing on turf starts today - bad news for betting shop employees as there will now be non-stop racing 6 days a week (no Sunday evenings) until the end of August. Todays´s cards are at Wolverhampton (a.w.) and Hexham (N.H.) and Plumpton (N.H.) in the afternoon, and Windsor and Ffos Las (N.H.) in the evening. There are some very small fields, with only 3 running in the 3yo handicap at 16.10 CET at Wolverhampton.

Take Your Partmer (Kevin Ryan/ Phillip Makin) has a clear fitness advantage over the 2 others, having run - and won- 3 times already this year and can complete a four-timer. Most interesting runner here in our view is the one- time German classic winner Aviso (David Evans/ Jack Doyle), who runs in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.40. He was staying on well when 4th over 6 furlongs here last time and must have a good chance in this low quality race.

Wolverhampton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Mr Maximas - Barton Bounty - Pie Poudre
2. Race: Lewyn - Desperate Dan - Devil You Know
3. Race: Take Your Partner - Nine Before Ten - Thirteen Shivers
4. Race: El Libertador - Spinning Ridge - Magical Illusion
5. Race: My Mate Jake - Mundesley - Mccool Bannanas
6. Race: Uphold - Thrust Control - The Which Doctor
7. Race: Polemica - Starclass - Absa Lutte


At Hexham we expect Scriptwriter (Howard Johnson/ Paul Gallagher) to defy a penalty and win the novice hurdle at 16.00, while Texas Holdem(M Smith/ Denis O´Regan), who usually runs well here, should go close in the handicap hurdle hurdle an hour later. At Plumpton, Absolute Shambles (Charlie Gordon/ Jamie Moore) can repeat his recent CD win the handicap chase over 3 1/4 miles at 16.50, while Mr. Muddle (Sheena West/ Marc Goldstein), who was well beaten at the Cheltenham Festival last time, meets much inferior opposition in the novice hurdle half an hour earlier.

Hexham - betting forecast:
1. Race: Lonesome Boatman - Nicky Tam - Von Galen
2. Race: Silent Snow - Mister Wall Street - Alpha One
3. Race: Scriptwriter - Masterful Act - Mr Supreme
4. Race: Mr Goofy - Bene Lad - Harry Flashman
5. Race: Texas Holdem - San Deng - Degas Art
6. Race: Ardnaclancy - Simply Smashing - Abragante
7. Race: Viking Chief - Tricksofthetrade - Find A Key


Sir Michael Stoute always make a low key start to the season and this evening he sends 3 runners to Windsor with Ryan Moore in the saddle. The most interesting should be Crystal Etoile in the maiden race for 3yo fillies at 19.35, but this looks quite a difficult race, and Izzi Top (John Gosden/ William Buick) is the obvious favourite. Ryan also rides Rezwaan for his father Gary in the mile handicap at 19.00 and this dual all-weather winner can possibly complete a hat-trick here.

Windsor - betting forecast:
1. Race: Dark Lane - Even Bolder - Silver Wind
2. Race: Lord Ofthe Shadows - Safari Storm - Serious Spender
3. Race: Rezwaan - Baylini - Kay Gee Be
4. Race: Izzi Top - Crystal Etoile - Shelovestobouggie
5. Race: Informed Award - Laughing Jack - Aldedash
6. Race: Baharat - First Battalion - Bow River Arch

Wiener Walzer at Longchamp

Longchamp begins its prestigious programme of Sunday racing today when the main event is the Group Two Prix d´Harcourt over 2000 metres at 16.10 CET. The 2009 German Derby winner Wiener Walzer is an interesting runner here. he is making his debut for trainer Andre Fabre and wil be ridden by Maxime Guyon. Getting 3 pounds from his main opponents, he has a good each-way chance in this high class field. Last time out, he was unplaced in the "Arc", behind Planteur (Elie Lellouche/ Christophe Soumillon) but in front of Timos (Thierry Doumen/ Sylvain Ruis). Planteur is clearly the class act in this field, having also been runner-up in the Jockey-Club, but his trainer warns that he may need the race. Fabre´s other runner Ley Hunter (Mikael Barzalona) is moving up in grade but has done nothing wrong so far and must be respected, while Silver Pond (Carlos Laffon-Parias/ Davy Bonilla) is a danger to all.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Saint Desir - Pine Creek - Saint Desir
2. Race: Alkania - Unkept Rendez Vous - Jehannedarc
3. Race: Glorious Sight - Adventure Seeker - Glorious Sight
4. Race: Mondovino - Taverny - Grand Tard
5. Race: Prairie Star - Staros - Prairie Star
6. Race: Planteur - Silver Pond - Celtic Celeb
7. Race: Divin Leon - Venise Jelois - Divin Leon
8. Race: Suntil Bere - Tout En Bleu - Suntil

Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown

The Ballysax Stakes for 3yo´s over 10 furlongs at 16.45 CET is always one of the most informative Irish Derby trials and Aidan O´Brien has an excellent record here. He has 3 runners here of whom Recital, unbeaten in 2 races last year including a French Group One, looks easily the best. Speculation continues regarding O´Brien´s choice of stable jockey this season, but his declared policy of using "the best available" seems borne out by the fact that he has booked Ryan Moore for this ride (and 3 others on the undercard). Main danger here should be Mawaakef (Kevin Prendergast/ Dclan McDonough), runner-up to Casamento in a Group Two last September.
The main supporting feature is the listed mile race at 15.45, in which there are only 4 runners. This looks at the mercy of course specialist Famous Name (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), who won this last year and has plenty in hand on official ratings, even taking into account the weight he is set to concede.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Raphael Santi - Parish Hall - Requinto
2. Race: Famous Name - Finicius - Barack
3. Race: President Lincoln - Flavia Tatiana - Adiynara
4. Race: Recital - Mawaakef - Banimpire
5. Race: Claiomh Solais - Quest For Peace - Sinntani
6. Race: Daring Man - Northern Rocked - Great Realief
7. Race: Dolphin Bay - Midnight Dreamer - Bahrain Storm

4 jumps meetings today

even after the end of the Grand National meeting, jumps racing continues apace and there are 4 meetings today, Ascot, Ludlow and Wincanton in the U.K. and Tramore in Ireland. Ascot stages quite a competitive card with the 4yo handicap hurdle at 16.10 CET the most interesting event. 4 of the 8 runners were last seen in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, woth Dhaafer (Alan King / Robert Thornton) doing best in 3rd, Jubail (King/ Wayne Hutchinson) 5th, Rock of Deauville (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Skelton) 6th and Whitby Jack (Gary and Jamie Moore) well back. Dhaafer is slightly worse off at the weights now, but could still confirm the form, although we would not be surprised to see Rock of Deauville improve past him. Ultravox (Jeremy Scott/ Nathan Sweeney), a Newbury winner last time, looks the danger to this quartet. Nicholls also has a chance in the veterans chase over 3 miles at 17.20 with Blu Teen (Ryan Mahon), who won the Grand Military Gold Cup at Sandown last time.
Nicholls who has runners at all 3 British meetings, can also take the novice chase at 15.55 at Ludlow with Pepe Simo, while on the same card Lifestyle (Nicky Henderson/ Felix de Giles) should win the novice hurdle at 17.05; he was runner-up last time to Topolski, who has well franked the form since.
There could be some German-bred winners at Wincanton, where we expect the Black Sam Bellamy gelding Spanish Treasure (Andy Turnell/ Nick Scholfield) to take the opening novice hurdle at 15.10. Charlie Mann´s Unleashed has an each-way chance in a very open handicap hurdle over 2 3/4 miles at 16.20, while the same trainer´s Moon over Miami (by Dashing Blade) has a chance in a tricky handicap chase over 2 miles at 16.55. The latter is best when coming late off a strong pace, which he should get with front-runner Marodima in the field. Unfortunately it is not clear who will be riding Charlie Mann´s runners, as poor Peter Toole is in hospital with head injuries after a terrible fall at Aintree yesterday.
Wille Mullins did not do as well as expected at the Grand National meeting, but could still land a four-timer today at Tramore, with Pickapocketortwo at 15.25, and Zadarska at 18.40, both with son Paddy in the saddle, and Riltree at 16.00 and Uncle Junior an hour later, both partnered by Ruby Walsh.

Betting forecast Ascot:
1. Race: Invictus - Milgen Bay - Mawsem
2. Race: Aerial - Pascha Bere - Squadron
3. Race: Dhaafer - Jubail - Pullyourfingerout
4. Race: Fiftyonefiftyone - Bedarra Boy - Lordsbridge
5. Race: Blu Teen - Alderburn - Appleaday
6. Race: Lupanar - Like A Hurricane - Miss Overdrive
7. Race: Just Amazing - Oracle Des Mottes - Seymar Lad

Grand National this afternoon at Aintree

officially the name of the race is the John Smith´ s Grand National Handicap Chase, but everybody knows it simply as the Grand National, the world´s most famous race run over 4 1/2 miles and 30 jumps at 17.15 CET this afternoon at Aintree. The course is sold out (73,000 spectators), the weather is perfect and the race is possibly the most open ever - there are reasons for fancying all 40 runners and also reasons for rejecting them all. It is not clear who will start favourite - you can even bet on that! But unless there is a huge last-minute public gamble - as tre was last year on Don´t Push It - the bookies are likely to go 10-1 the field.
And it is with Don´t Push It (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) that one has to begin, after all he won the race last year, giving trainer and jockey the first win in this event as well as owner JP McManus (who this time has 5 starters). H has clearly been trained solely with this race in mind ever since, but then so have most of the others. History is against Don´t Push It, as no horse has won twice running since Red Rum in 1974, and no top-weight has won since then either.
There are 12 Irish runners and in our view good prospects of an Irish victory. Willie Mullins has 3 runners, with The Midnight Club (Ruby Walsh) clearly the pick, while others with good chances are Vic Venturi (Dessie Hughes/ Andrew Lynch), Majestic Concorde (Dermot Weld/ Robbie McNamara), Bluesea Cracker (James Motherway/ brother Andrew McNamara), Oscar Time (Martin Lynch/ Sam Waley-Cohen) and Backstage (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry). Any of these would be a big story, especially Oscar Time, bidding to give Sam Waley-Cohen and his father Robert (the owner) an incredible double after their Cheltenham victory. However at the prices our preferences are Majestic Concorde and Vic Venturi.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Spirit Son - Rock On Ruby - Cue Card
2. Race: Finian`S Rainbow - Ghizao - Starluck
3. Race: Peddlers Cross - Binocular - Oscar Whisky
4. Race: Bensalem - Great Endeavour - Reve De Sivola
5. Race: The Midnight Club - Backstage - Oscar Time
6. Race: Via Galilei - Alazan - Plan A
7. Race: Montbazon - Laveroque - Persian Snow

Aintree Grand National meeting: second day

another excellent card at Aintree, where the Grand National meeting is now beginning to rival the Cheltenham Festival. Indeed many of today´s runners were last seen out at Cheltenham, and the question is always to what extent the Festival form will be upheld weeks later on this very different track. The answer is: not always - as we saw yesterday with Denman.

The opening Grade Two novice hurdle at 15.00 CET looks very open, but we hope to see German-bred Iolith (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) run well; the Monsun gelding looked quite smart when winning his first two races over hurdles, but was unplaced next time in a hot handicap at Taunton. Topolski (David Arbuthnot/ Daryl Jacob) has won both his starts with the minimum of fuss and is clearly going places. while the 4yo´s Brampour (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) and A Media Luz (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), both without a chance in the Triumph Hurdle, have chances in this slightly weaker company.

The Grade Two novice chase over an extended 3 miles half an hour later can go to the consistent Wayward Prince (Ian Williams/ Tony McCoy), who holds Master of the Hall (Henderson/ Geraghty) on Cheltenham form. Golan Way (Sheena West/ Leighton Aspell) has smart form but is unproven at this distance, while Irish challenger Quito de le Roque (Colm Murphy/ Davy Russell) probably needs softer going than he will find this afternoon.

The day´s main feature is the Grade One Melling Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.05 which has a very strong field. Alberta´s Run (Jonjo O´Neill/ McCoy), who won this last year and is back to his best after taking the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham for the second time, but he has little in hand of Kalahari King (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) on that form. Somersby (Henrietta Knight/ Robert Thornton) and Masterminded (Nicholls/ Walsh) were both unplaced in the Champion Chase over 2 miles. Somersby is undoubtely better at today´s trip, but Master Minded, who would certainly win this at this best, was beaten in this race 3 years ago on his only attempt at the distance and continues to be an enigma. Tranquil Sea (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) is another Irish runner who is good enough on form but probably needs rain to fall (highly unlikely).

Two more 2010 winners line up again today -Always Waining (Peter Bowen/ Tom O´Brien) in the Topham Chase, a handicap over almost 2 3/4 miles at 16.40, and Ringaroses (O´Neill/ McCoy) in the handicap at 17.50. Even if one assumes that they have both been laid out to win again, they both face very stiff tasks in the two toughest races of the day for the punter. For the record our 3 against the field in these very tricky races are Dev, Frankie Figg and Passato at 16.40, and Battlegroup, Kilcrea Kim and Pistolet Noir in the later event.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sire De Grugy - Topolski - Brampour
2. Race: Wayward Prince - Quito De La Roque - Master Of The Hall
3. Race: Albertas Run - Kalahari King - Master Minded
4. Race: Mon Parrain - Frankie Figg - Fine Parchment
5. Race: Mossley - Back In Focus - Sparky May
6. Race: Kilcrea Kim - Golden Chieftain - Buena Vista
7. Race: Glorious Feeling - Baby Shine - Tante Sissi

Top stayers clash in Saint-Cloud

The Prix Right Royal over 3100 metres at 17.00 CET this afternoon at Saint-Cloud is only a listed race, but has attracted a really strong field, headed by Melbourne Cup winner Americain (Alain de Royer-Dupre/ Gerald Mosse´) and Prix du Cadran winner Gentoo ( Lyon/ Christophe Lemaire). Also in the line-up are smart stayers Blek (Elie Lellouche/ Antony Crastus) and Mashoor (Andre Fabre/ Maxime Guyon), while we also like the look of veteran Kasbah Bliss (Francois Doumen/ Thierry Thulliez). getting weight from most of these. German hope Lamool (Mario Hofer/ Filip Minarik) is smart, but will do well to finish in the money in ths company.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: White Burgundy - Vizir Bere - Speed Leo
2. Race: Primaries - Supreme Wisdom - Automotive
3. Race: Vintage Gardenia - Rosa Bonheur - Lisores
4. Race: Galikova - Nosail - Shareta
5. Race: Pump Pump Boy - Clavis - Inoubliable
6. Race: Hail Holy Queen - Cat Melody - A Moment With You
7. Race: Americain - Gentoo - Kasbah Bliss
8. Race: People Chop - Amoona - Tag`s Book

Aintree Grand National meeting: first day

The Aintree Grand National meeting kicks off today with a truly excellent card, almost as good as Cheltenham. Indeed the three main events can all be seen as a follow-up to the Cheltenham Festival. The going is good to soft today but is expected to dry out to good by Saturday. The opening race, the Grade One Liverpool Hurdle over 3 miles at 15.00 CET, is a repeat of the World Hurdle at the Festival, won by Big Bucks (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) (for the third time) from Grands Crus (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore). Cheltenham form is not always repeated at Aintree, but we cannot imagine Big Bucks, who is going for a hat-trick here as well, will go down to defeat for the first time in over 2 years. He held Grands Crus comfortably enough last time and can do so again. Carlito Brigante /Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell),also a Cheltenham winner, but in handicap company, looks next best, but Sentry Duty (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty, who seems to have been kept for this race, could also be placed.

The Grade One 4yo hurdle half an hour later also has the Cheltenham winner in the line-up, Zarkandar,who should be another winner for the Nicholls/ Walsh team. The half-brother to Zarkava beat several of these opponents in the Triumph and there seems no reason why he should not do so again. as he appears to be a horse with a great future. German-bred Local Hero, only 8th at Cheltenham, should be better suited by this track and could be placed.

The main feature today is the Grade One Totesport Bowl chase over 3 miles 1 furlong at 16.05, in which Denman (Nicholls/ Walsh again) returns after his excellent performance as runner-up in the Gold Cup. Logically he should win this, but he appears slightly dodgier than the first two hot favourites. He fell in this race 2 years ago - his only run here- and last year also ran poorly after Cheltenham. Nacarat (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) and Punchestowns (Henderson/ Geraghty) are possible alternatives.

The Foxhunters at 16.40 should mainly concern Baby Run (Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies), who fell two out at Cheltenham after making the running, and Turko (Mrs. Borrodaile/ Sam Waley-Cohen), but there is also a word out for Irish raider Kilty Storm (RJ McGrath/ D Queally), while Medermit (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) can put a poor Cheltenham run behind him by taking the novice chase at 17.50 .

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Big Buck`S - Grands Crus - Carlito Brigante
2. Race: Zarkandar - Grandouet - Third Intention
3. Race: Denman - Punchestowns - Nacarat
4. Race: Baby Run - Turko - Herons Well
5. Race: Leo`S Lucky Star - Tchico Polos - Oiseau De Nuit
6. Race: Wishfull Thinking - Medermit - Royal Charm
7. Race: Get Me Out Of Here - Megastar - Sire Collonges

4 meetings today

With 3 meetings on the flat today, the only jumps action comes from Exeter, where there are some large fields. Main event is the marathon chase handicap over 3 3/4 miles at 16.30 CET, where 16 have been declared. For such races, CD experience is always a huge advantage and Vamizi (Mark Bradstock/ Mattie Batchelor) must be on the short list. He always runs well here and was 2nd of 16 over this CD last time out. Others to consider are Theophastrus (Nick Gifford/ Liam Treadwell), who has won his last 2 races, including here, but is now moving up in trip and grade, and Ma Yahab (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), who had no chance last time in the Midlands Grand National, but in this lesser company could run much better. Williams and Coleman could also win the preceding handicap hurdle with last-time-out Newbury winner Stow, but we find Vic Dartnall´s two runners equally interesting - top weight Connak (Denis O´Regan), who has been off for 14 months, and bottom-weight Nemet an (Edward Glassonbury); the latter is actually 3lbs out of the handicap, but he ran really well at Kempton last time after a long break, and if he does not bounce must have a decent chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rif - Lundy Sky - Vincitore
2. Race: Stow - Sum Laff - Mauricetheathlete
3. Race: Vamizi - Theophrastus - Choumakeur
4. Race: Hidden Keel - Requin - Rougham
5. Race: Oca De Thaix - What Of It - Louis Pasteur
6. Race: Harry Le Fise Lake - Aland Islands - Special Vintage
7. Race: Cosway Spirit - Fox Appeal - Champagne Rosie


The most interesting flat races, rather surprisingly, come from Pontefract, where the 10 furlongs handicap at 17.10 has attracted a good field. Top-weight Tiger Reigns (Michael Dods/ Freddie Tylicki) is our choice here; he has a lot of weight, but is the class act here and ran respectably in Meydan in February; his trainer won the Lincoln on Saturday with a Meydan runner, and this son of Tiger Hill can follow suit. The long distance handicap at 16.40 is named after popular CD specialist Jamaican Flight, and it can go to another CD specialist Dan Buoy (Richard Guest/ Billy Cray), who runs his best races here and took this event a ywar ago; however he is not so well-handicapped now and we prefer Pegasus Prince (Keith Reveley/ Tom Eaves). This one has never actually won a flat race on grass, but has a good all-weather record and is much improved over hurdles; he seems seriously underrated by the handicapper.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Nolecce - Hits Only Jude - Bajan Flash
2. Race: Halfsin - Lady Rosamunde - Munbaher
3. Race: State Of Mind - Flynn`S Boy - Tom Sawyer
4. Race: Sunny Spells - Blackmore - Dan Buoy
5. Race: Tiger Reigns - Changing The Guard - Itlaaq
6. Race: Florestans Match - Canashito - Flashbang
7. Race: Folk Tune - Hallstatt - Record Breaker


Kempton´s all-weather meeting looks very poor, with only 4 runners in the main event, a 5 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 16.20. All of them have chances, with top-weight Chevise (Steve Woodman/ Harry Bentley) having won 5 of her last 6 starts; however they were not great races, and we prefer Quality Art (Gary Moore/ Fergus Sweeney), whose CD win at New Year looks solid form. It is not usually a good idea to back maidens in handicaps, but Loyaliste (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), in the money all starts last year, must surely go close in the 10 furlongs event at 15.50.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mrs Mop - That`S Dangerous - Snowed In
2. Race: Crunched - Loyaliste - Free Tussy
3. Race: Quality Art - Overwhelm - Chevise
4. Race: Daliana - September Draw - Zanoubiatta
5. Race: Leelu - Cape Melody - Al Aqabah
6. Race: Gandalf - Kadouchski - Storm Hawk
7. Race: Avalon Bay - Winniepeg - Greenhead High


To the Irish track at Limerick goes the honour of staging the first evening races of the year under natural light. The 3yo race over 6 1/2 furlongs which opens the card at 17.45 looks quite tricky, but with Dermot Weld and his jockey Pat Smullen in such great form, we hope to see their Flic Flac, runner-up on her last 3 starts, get the better of Dundalk winners Gleadhradh and Maundays Bay.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Gleadhradh - Flic Flac - Obligada
2. Race: Dance Secretary - Asheerah - Vastitas
3. Race: Little Village - Captain James - Orpens Peach
4. Race: Swampfire - Nucals Star - Baitsileir
5. Race: West Coast Dream - Northern Rocked - Cave Artist
6. Race: Concrete And Clay - Lynott - Reach The Stars
7. Race: Captainofthefleet - Humiliation - Hired Hand

Windsor, Folkestone and Kelso

The feeble start to the flat racing season continues today with meetings at Windsor and Folkestone. Windsor´ s Monday meetings (as of next week, in the evenings) are traditional, but today´s card is very low-level. On 2010 form, the 3yo maiden over 10 furlongs at 17.10 CET could go to Discoteca (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), third on both his 2010 starts, or Silverware (Richard Hannon/ Ryan Moore) but neither of them look that brilliant, and possibly well-bred newcomer Informed Award (John Gosden/ William Buick) will come out on top. The 6 furlongs event for 3yo´s at 18.10 could go to Green Apple (Peter Makin/ Fergus Sweeney), an easy Wolverhampton maiden winner last time; this is a better grade event, but she still might be good enough. The 5 furlongs handicap at 17.40 is as tricky as usual, but we like 2 oldtimers, 10yo Efistorm(Conor Dore/ Hayley Turner) and 11yo Cape Royal (Milton Bradley/ Richard Kingscote). Both have been running without much success on the all -weather, but they are much better (and higher rated!) on turf and both have a good CD record.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lord Ofthe Shadows - Sea Odyssey - Silverheels
2. Race: Captain Sharpe - Quite A Catch - Dew Reward
3. Race: Kingsdine - Kilburn - Yes Chef
4. Race: Informed Award - Discoteca - Silverware
5. Race: Galatian - Ajjaadd - Cape Royal
6. Race: Green Apple - Grandmas Dream - Firstknight


The fields are very poor at Folkestone, and it is clear that many trainers are now boycotting ths meeting because of the lousy prize-money. Gay Gallivanter (Mick Quinn/ Kieren Fallon) was rejected as not good enough by previous owner Cheveley Park Stud and trainer John Gosden) but could still take care of extremely weak opposition in the fillies maiden at 17.20. The 3yo handicap over 6 furlongs an hour earlier could go to Apollo d´Negro (Clive Cox/ John Fahy), who was well backed without winning on a couple of occasions last year and seems to be on a very lenient mark.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Queen Of The Hop - The Dancing Lord - First Rebellion
2. Race: Alpha Delta Whisky - Bahri Sheen - His Grace
3. Race: Queen Of Cash - Speedfit Girl - Apollo D`Negro
4. Race: Tony Hollis - Red Zeus - Jackie Love
5. Race: Gay Gallivanter - Timpanist - Here To Eternity
6. Race: Not So Bright - Ya Hafed - Frosty Reception
7. Race: Rose Aurora - Derby Desire - Sir Haydn


The fields are much better at the only jumps meeting today, at Kelso in the Scottish Borders. There are however only 5 runners in the novice chase at 16.30, which should go to Chamirey (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire); he had np chance in much stronger company at Cheltenham last time, but has obvious prospects here. The novice hurdle has attracted a strong entry and is split into 2 divisions, both with 15 runners. Realt Mor (Nicky Richards/ Dominic Elsworth) was heavily backed on his debut over sticks at Ayr, but fell 3 out when leading and looking the likely winner; he can recover those losses at 17.00. Two hours later, Bogside (George Charlton/ Jan Faltejsek) can take the second division; he was 5th here last time in a much better race. Reaping the Reward (Andrew Parker / Richard McGrath), a decent bumper but off the track for almost 2 years, looks the only danger.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: A Stones Throw - King Mak - Kykate
2. Race: Sheriff Hall - Duke Of Malfi - Cabbyl Doo
3. Race: Chamirey - Flying Doctor - Milans Man
4. Race: Realt Mor - Rupert Lamb - Kings Grey
5. Race: Hold On Julio - Rakerin Lad - Salveo
6. Race: Hawaii Klass - Shooting Times - Moon Indigo
7. Race: Flighty Mist - Identity Parade - Streamtown
8. Race: Bogside - Reaping The Reward - Tom`S Toybox

St. Nicholas Abbey returns at the Curragh

The listed Alleged Stakes over 10 furlongs at 17.00 CET at the Curragh today is not the headline race of a strong card, but it is certainly the most interesting event. as it sees the return of St. Nicholas Abbey (Aidan O´Brien/ Seamus Heffernan). beaten favourite for the 2,000 Guineas when last seen out 11 months ago. He was regarded as a budding champion when winning the Racing Post Trophy in 2009, but has obviously had his problems since. However he should win this relatively modest event before going on to better things. Dermot Weld supplies the main opposition in Galileos Choice (Shane Gorey) and Unaccompanied (Pat Smullen), who was runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out. Main feature here is the Group Three Gladness Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.30. Lolly for Dolly (Tommy Stack/ Wayne Lordan) won nicely over a mile here a fortnight ago, but the one to beat is surely Regal Parade (David and Adrian Nicholls), who carries a penalty but is well clear on o fficial ratings; he was beaten less than 2 lengts by Goldikova in the Prix de la Foret last October and that form should suffice here. The listed race for 3yo´s over 7 furlongs at 15.25 is another interesting event. Glor Na Mara (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) is the clear form choice, having been placed in all his 2yo starts, all in top company, but Sing Softly (O´Brien/ Colm O´Donoghue) beat a huge field in very promising style here at the last meeting and is a live danger.

At Doncaster, the card for the second day of their Lincoln meeting is much weaker than yesterday´s. The best race is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.55 with 22 runners, but this looks very diffficult. Arguably Hoof It (Mick Easterby/ Kieren Fallon), Horse Radish (Michael Bell/ Hayley Turner) and Medicean Man (Jeremy Gask/ Steve Drowne) are the form choices, but they all drawn low. Yesterday´ s results suggest that the stands side (high numbers) has an advantage, so we have decided on Joe Packet (Johnny Portman/ Jim Crowley), who is drawn right on the rail.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Boris Grigoriev - Raphael Santi - Dayrina
2. Race: Glor Na Mara - Sing Softly - Triple Eight
3. Race: West Coast Dream - Edenshaw - First In Command
4. Race: Regal Parade - Emulous - The Cheka
5. Race: St Nicholas Abbey - Unaccompanied - Gift From The Sea
6. Race: Notable Graduate - Marksmanship - Zanughan
7. Race: Samain - Black Benny - He`S A Delight
8. Race: Jumbo Rio - Force Of Habit - Leah Claire

Market Rasen and Limerick

Two jumps meetings today, with the better card at the Irish fixture at Limerick, where the main event is a Grade Two novice chase over 3 miles at 17.45 CET. This has attracted a classy field, headed by Quito de la Roque (Colm Murphy/ Robbie Power), who has won 4 of his last 5 starts and went down by less than a length to Bostons Amgel, subsequently a winner at Cheltenham. However he faces tough opposition here, including Roi du Mee (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Condon), who has won his last 3, and Hampshire Express (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), who holds Roi du Mee on 2010 form. The bumper half an hour later sees two unbeaten horses in opposition, both of whom look likely to go right to the top- Waaheb (Dermot Weld/ Robbie McNamara) and Cash and Go (Andrew McNamara); it will be surprising if they do not dominate this field. O´Grady and McNamara are also represented by The Real Article, unbeaten in 4 starts, who runs in the novice hurdle at 16.45, but this is another tough race.

There are only 4 runners in the novice chase over an extended 3 miles at 17.10 at Market Rasen, but they all look quite useful. We hope to see German-bred Fin Vin de Leu (Charlie Mann/ Daryl Jacob) complete a hat-trick here. The novice hurdle at 16.05 should go to Higgys Ragazzo (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy), who was a winner over this CD on his only start so far, but Troopingthecolour (Steve Gollings/ Rhys Flint) is an interesting alternative. He has not run for a long time, but was 1/2 all flat starts for John Gosden in 2009 and makes his debut over the sticks here.

Rest of today´s flat racing

The rest of the Doncaster card also looks very competitive and kicks off with the Spring Mile handicap at 15.05 CET for horses that were entered for the Lincoln, but did not make the cut. With 22 runners this is just as difficult as the big race itself. The favourites here are Kalk Bay (William Haggas/ Johnny Murtagh) and Mata Keranjang (Paul Cole/ Jamie Spencer), who is very well handicapped on his 2yo form, but both of them are drawn low and we shall take a chance on the stands side runners and make top-weight Manassas (Brian Meehan/ Louis-Philippe Beuzelin), Eton Forever (Roger Varian/ Neil Callan) and Norman Orpen (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ Ryan Moore) our three against the field. The other big race here is the listed Cammidge Trophy over 6 furlongs at 15.35. Prime Defender (Barry Hills/ Robert Winston) is a specialist for this event, having won it in 2009 and finished second last year. Obviously he can go close again, but our preferences are Iver Bridge Lad (James Ryan/ Jimmy Quinn), who followed up 2 good performances in Dubai with an easy win at Kempton last week, and Lovelace (David and Adrian Nicholls). The latter was a very smart miler in younger days, as we remember from his impressive Baden-Baden win in 2008 when trained by Mark Johnston, but Nicholls raced him with success at 7 furlongs last year and now brings him back a further furlong.

The other flat meeting is on the all-weather at Kempton and punters are reminded that low numbers are now best here, and for this reason we like top-weight Red Cadeaux (Ed Dunlop/ Eddie Anern) in the Rosebery Handicap over 11 furlongs at 16.25, drawn right against the inside rail. There are two listed races on the card here, with the Magnolia Stakes over 10 furlongs as the first race at 15.20. Last year´s Lincoln winner Penitent (William Haggas/ Frankie Dettori) should run well here, but he has little in hand of Pink Symphony (Paul Cole/ Chris Catlin). Frankie has another good chance in the fillies listed race at 17.35 on Marco Botti´s Mosqueras Romance, who is top-rated in this mile event and also drawn one. The problem with this filly is her poor strike rate; she has only ever won once - over this CD- while she has been runner-up 6 times. We shall therefore take a chance with Kinky Afro (Stan Moore/ Liam Keniry), who has been off the track since August, but had earlier run well in similar company, including in Germany.