Wednesday, March 31, 2010

All-weather racing at Southwell and Kempton

There is all-weather racing this afternoon at Southwell and this evening at Kempton. Richard Fahey´s stable is in great form on turf and can possibly carry this over to the all-weather, by landing a Southwell double with Bo McGinty at 16.30 CET and Chocolate Caramel half an hour later, both partnered by stable jockey Paul Hanagan. Bo McGinty has not won for ages, but is now on a very reasonable mark and is well drawn for this 5 furlongs sprint.

Chocolate Caramel possibly has a fitness advantage in the 1 3/4 miles handicap, having been placed twice recently over this CD. Lucky Unt (Brendan Powell/ Fergus Sweeney) has won 5 of his last 8 starts -all of them here - but has been off since December and seems high enough in the weights; Bin End (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer) has not run since May, while top-weight Swiss Act (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) and Heathyards Pride (Reg Hollinshead/ Graham Gibbons) have been off for even longer, but all 3 would be very dangerous if in top form.

The racing looks more interesting at Kempton, where some of the top jockeys will be in action - Dettori, Moore, Fallon et al. Frankie has 5 rides, 4 of them for Mark Johnston, all 3yo´s owned by Sheikh Mohammed´ s son. Sir Frank Wappat, over 6 furlongs at 19.00, and Parhelion, over 11 furlongs an hour later, are both making their handicap debut after winning a maiden at Wolverhampton. Possibly his best chances are Manxman in the 3yo maiden at 19.30 (although John Gosden´s Zigato, with William Buick, as a half-brother to Oaks winner Sariska could be a big problem here) and Capricornus in the mile handicap at 20.30. The handicap over 1 1/2 miles for older horses at 21.00 could also be interesting. Donaldson (Jonjo O´ Neill/ George Baker) has top weight here; this one time German Group One winner has dropped to an insulting rating, but his recent efforts have been so poor that he is best watched for now. More likely winners are Free Tussy (Gary and Ryan Moore), Confidentiality ( Michael Wigham/ Nicky Macka) - moving up in trip- or Frankie´s mount, the John Jenkins-trained Trachonitis.

Hereford only surviving jumps meeting today

The wet and windy weather continues in the UK and Irland and today´s N.H. meetings at Exeter and Gowran Park have been abandoned, while tomorrow´s fixture at Wincanton and Saturday´s at Newton Abbot are also under threat. This leaves Hereford´s meeting as the only jumps racing today. The novice hurdle at 15.40 CET should go to Shakalakaboomboom (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy), who can make the most of the weight he receives from Oscar Gogo (Evan and Christian Williams), who won on heavy ground at Chepstow last time. German-bred Magusta (Jamie Snowden/ Daryl Jacob) should certainly handle the ground and could run into a place at a big price; he has shown little in 3 starts so far but could pick up a small race in time.

A German-bred with a much better chance is Classic Dream (Sean Curran/ Antony Freeman), who makes his debut over fences in the novice chase at 16.40. He also handles the ground well and in unbeaten in two starts over hurdles here. The obvious danger is top-weight I have Dreamed (Gary and Jamie Moore), while Cracboumwiz /Alan King/ Williams) would also have prospects, but his stable remains under a cloud.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Carrig An Uisce - Investment Wings - Artic Bliss
2. Race: Oscar Gogo - Ring For Time - Shakalakaboomboom
3. Race: Immense - Earcomesthedream - Power Shared
4. Race: Cracboumwiz - Classic Dream - Aboukir Bay
5. Race: Brimham Boy - Gilsland - Omix D`Or
6. Race: Malindi Bay - Flanagan - Abey M`Boy
7. Race: Abbey Dore - Wishes Or Watches - Glimmer Of Light

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

German runners in Compiegne today

Compiegne is easily reached from Germany and there are German-trained runners in 4 of the 8 races there today. Fareion (Sascha Smcrzek/ Dominique Boeuf) and Thalamon (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke) start the ball rolling when they contest the opening tiercé handicap over a mile at 13.35. Both of them have run often enough in France and could play a role here, especially the latter if he can get an easy lead, but as always this is a very tough race. Boeuf also partners Canali in the 2000 metres race over 4yo´s at 15.40, and Sumatra Tiger in the concluding mile handicap at 17.10, both trained by Werner Baltromei. Sumatra Tiger has already won twice in France this year, but is now on a much higher rating. Other German runners on the card are Isolke (Andreas Löwe/ Hardouin) in the 3yo claimer at 15.05, and Godfreyson (Andreas Trybuhl/ Thierry Thulliez) in the 2400 metres claimer at 16.40. Godfreyson is in good form but faces a massive task under top weight. Ex-German Figo lo oks dangerous here, but our fancy is the ex-English Group Captain (Alex Fracas/ Olivier Peslier), who is not the most consistent but has been running in much better company.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Zibimix - Cool Star - All Ways To Rome
2. Race: Dieten - Camini - Style de Lois
3. Race: Gone Shopping - Dayde - Belleza
4. Race: Isis De La Vis - Greensleeves - Miss Kamikaze
5. Race: Galloppai - Via Col Vento - Canall
6. Race: Ligne Claire - Amuse Gueule - Silver Valny
7. Race: Lost Soldier Three - Sybelio - Lady Di
8. Race: Freemix - Long John Silver - Superior Officer

N.H. racing at Market Rasen and Fontwell

After the abandonment of Newcastle, there are now only 2 N.H. jumps meetings in the U.K. and no racing at all today in Ireland. The Easterby family could do well at Market Rasen, where Tim can saddle the winner of the mares handicap hurdle at 15.10 CT with the improving Gwyre (Dougie Costello), the only 4yo in the field. The obvious danger is Pearl (Alison Thorpe/ Oliver Dayman), who fell last time, but whose previous form was good enough.

Half n hour ltr Tim´s uncle Mick can tak the hndocap hurdle witgh Lightening Rod (Oliver Greenall), a very asy winnrat Kelso 8 days ago. The danger here is Ahmedy (John Quinn/ Costello), who has not run over jumps since winning over this CD 3 years ago, but should be fit enough after two recent runs on the all-weather. Alan King has had a poor season, but can pick up a small consolation prize with the lightly-raced Raduis Bleu (Robert Thornton) in the handicap chase at 16.40.

Alison Thorpe also has a fancied runner in the opener at Fontwell, a mares novice hurdle at 15.00. Her candidate here is Diktalina (Johnny Farrelly), who had no chance in the Fred Winter at the recent Cheltenham Festival, but meets far inferior opposition here. It is certainly interesting that Paul Nicholls sends Ruby Walsh for just one ride to Fontwell - Recif de Thaix in the novice chase at 15.30. He is clearly not one of the stable stars, but should be able to win in this company. Best bet of the day is Fleur de Vassy (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) in the handicap hurdle at 18.00; she was a very easy winner over this CD 9 days ago and races off the same mark today.

Newcastle abandoned today

Today´s N.H. meeting at Newcastle (their last of the jumps season) has been abandoned, as the course is waterlogged after the recent heavy rain. There could also be problems with tomorrow´s meeting at Exeter.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Towcester, Lingfield and Wolverhampton

Typical Monday cards at today´s three British meetings, over jumps at Towcester and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton. All the top flat jockeys are now back from their winter travels and Lingfield will certainly be pleased to greet Frankie Dettori, Ryan Moore and rising star William Buick, among others. The best race here is the 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs at 16.40 CET.Only 7 runners, but a hot race; 5 of them are last-time-out winners, 2 are still unbeaten, and it would be no suprise to see some of these runners contesting much better races before long. Secretive (Mark Johnston/ Dettori) is one of the unbeaten ones, having won at odds-on on his debut in December, while bottom-weight Progress (Jeremy Noseda/ Buick) seems to have been given a very lenient mark. Top-weight Rjeef (Clive Brittain/ Seb Sanders) has already won a handicap, but may be facing an impossible task here.

Whatever happens here, Frankie should not go home empty-handed as Neil Wilson´s Abbondanza should certainly win the seller at 15.10. He is rated 106, i.e. listed class, and although he has not run up to this mark in recent outings, it should not be forgotten that he won 3 successive races here in March 2009. Another Lingfield course specialist is Kipchak (Conor Dore/Liam Keniry), who has won 5 of his 6 starts here; although he is dropping back in distance, that should not stop him defying top weight in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.10.
Wolverhampton on the other hand can boast Kieren Fallon and Jamie Spencer and both could score this afternoon - the former on Ed Dunlop´ s Red Gulch in the 7 furlongs maiden at 15.50 and the latter on Kevin Ryan´s Breathless Kiss in the 6 furlongs handicap for 3yo´s at 16.50.

Easily the best betting race of the day is the 3 miles handicap hurdle at 17.00 at Towcester, where almost any of the 14 runners could win. Even if we leave out top-weight Little George (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) in view of the stable form, we still have 4 last-time-out winners and several more who ar due for a win. Dr. Hart (Vic Dartnall/ Giles Hawkins) won well last time but would not want any more rain, and our preference is for Deep Pockets (Caroline Keevil/ Ian Popham) - the only runner in the field who has won over CD - and Ballyvesey (Peter Bowen/ Richard Johnson).

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Classic trials at Leopardstown

Today´s Leopardstown meeting features two early-season classic trials, and Aidan O´Brien is mob-handed in each - although judging by last week´s Curragh results his runners all appear to need a race. He has 4 runners in the 1,000 Guineas Trial at 15.55, with stable jockey Johnny Murtagh partnering Famous; however second string You´ll be Mine (Seamus Heffernan) looks equally strong on juvenile form. It could be that Lady Springbank (Peter Deegan/ Jim Crowley), a Group 3 winner at 25/1 on the Curragh last season, can outpoint them both.O´Brien has 3 runers in the 2,000 Guineas trial at 17.05, woth Blck Quartz (Murtagh) looking the bst of his trio. However Noll Wallop (Tommy Stack/ Wayne Lordan), whose stable has started the season in great style, and Free Judgement (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) are tough nuts to crack.

However it is quite possible that the best 3yo´s on view at Leopardstown are not running in the recognised trials, but in the 10 furlongs maiden at 17.40. O´Brien has 5 entered here, with Murtagh on September Moon, but the really interesting one could be the Aga Khan´s Behtarini (John Oxx/ Fran Berry), who was runner-up at half a length to Jan Vermeer in possibly the hottest 2yo maiden of 2009 at Gowran Park and is regarded by his shrewd stable as a major player for this season.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Awe Inspiring - Black Eyed Susan - Brazilian Beauty
2. Race: Famous - You`Ll Be Mine - Karasiyra
3. Race: Baglioni - Ceannline - Le Cadre Noir
4. Race: Viscount Nelson - Black Quartz - Free Judgement
5. Race: Behtarini - September Morn - Legendary Lad
6. Race: Tovaria - New Phase - Duaiseoir
7. Race: Key Decision - Salgrev - Little Arrows

N.H. racing at Hexham, Wincanton and Downpatrick (Ireland)

Jumps racing takes a back seat now until the Grand National Meeting begins, and today´s 3 meetings are not inspiring. Paul Nicholls is usually the trainer to follow at Wincanton, nd his Rebel du Maquis (Ryan Mahon) is epected to biunce back from rcnt reverses in the novice hurdl over 2 3/4 miles at 17.00. However Triggerman (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) never runs a bad race and his second place in a hot Newbury handicap reads well. Earlier we expect Peut Etre Sivola (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) to defy top weight in the staying handicap chase at 16.25.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rougham - Nice One Eric - Shoegazer
2. Race: Wise Men Say - Mon Chevalier - Quick Fix
3. Race: Whitewater Dash - Peut Etre Sivola - Babe Heffron
4. Race: Triggerman - Rebel Du Maquis - Red Mile
5. Race: Holmwood Legend - Sole Agent - Lidjo De Rouge
6. Race: Kahsabelle - Another Miracle - Mix N Match




The handicap hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 16.15 at Hexham is one of the best betting races of the afternoon. German-bred Federstar (Milton Harris/ Charlie Poste) must have a fair chance here after his good second place at Ffos Las. However it should not be overlooked that he has a very poor win strike rate -in fact. his last success was in 2005! The two bottom-weights, last-time-out winner Thatlldoforme (Alistair Whillans/ Peter Buchanan) and Mini Minster (P. Atkinson/ Phil Kinsella), who likes this track look dangerous, as is also Terenzium (Micky Hammond/ Fearghal Davis), who is very consistent in this grade.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: King O`The Gypsies - Master Fong - Hippolytus
2. Race: Political Paddy - Solway Bay - Quality Control
3. Race: Currahee - Thatlldoforme - Federstar
4. Race: Milans Man - Only The Best - Club Class
5. Race: Its Teescomponents - Doc Row - Boris The Blade
6. Race: Kensix Star - Fightstar - Sunnyside




Ruby Walsh is in action at Downpatrick this afternoon and can land a double for Willie Mullins with Final Approach, a useful flat handicapper, in the maiden hurdle at 15.15, and Hampshire Express, who unseated his jockey in a tough race at the Cheltenham Festival, in the hurdles race at 16.55. The McNiffs´ Ilikeyou won over this CD last time and can follow up against slightly better opposition in the handicap hurdle at 16.20.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Final Approach - Fearnwood Girl - Tara Warrior
2. Race: Shernaz - Topo Gigio - Spring Wine
3. Race: Ilikeyou - Supreme All Star - Lock Mor Lad
4. Race: Hampshire Express - Roi du Mee - Sciatin
5. Race: Blaze Trailer - The Man From Slatt - Rakamasi
6. Race: Harps Counsel - Leaders Mate - The Snuffler
7. Race: Foildubh - Clonard Lad - Sir Loujay

Doncaster today

The second day of the Doncaster Lincoln meeting could well see trainer Richard Fahey (3 winners here yesterday) and his stable jockey Paul Hanagan (4 winners) back in the winners enclosure. In the main event, the Doncaster Shield over 1 1/2 miles at 16.35 CET, their candidate Furmigafelagiusta carries top weight, but is also top-rated. He has been off since July, and Record Breaker (Mark Johnston/ Richard Hills) , who ran a good race at Kempton recently, looks the danger. Hills is one of several jockeys in action here who were riding at Meydan last night. Another is William Buick, who won the Sheema Classic on Da re Mi, and he can score again for his new boss John Gosden on the well-bred debutant African Wave in the 10 furlongs maiden at 15.30. The danger here is Cultivar (Barry and Michael Hills), whose stable has taken this event 5 times in the last 8 years. Fahey and Hanagan also have good chances in the two top handicaps with Deadly Encounter over 7 furlongs at 16.00 and Kaldoun Kingdom over 6 furlongs at 17.10, although there are 19 runners in each with plenty of possibilities in two wide-open events.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ella Woodcock - Mustajed - Waahej
2. Race: Cultivar - African Wave - Bullwhip
3. Race: Regeneration - Deadly Encounter - Dubai Dynamo
4. Race: Record Breaker - Furmigadelagiusta - Hidden Brief
5. Race: Jonny Mudball - Kaldoun Kingdom - Hotham
6. Race: Rock A Doodle Doo - Green Lightning - Kumbeshwar
7. Race: Paquerettza - Faldal - Saturn Girl

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Dubai World Cup - the world´s richest race ever

Today´s Dubai World Cup over 10 furlongs on tapeta at 18.45 CET is the richest race ever run, with prize-money of 10 million US dollars. Obviously the race is very competitive with a full field of 14 runners, although no superstar is in the line up this time, but that makes it all the more open. This race is usually won either by a Godolphin runner or an American, but there are grounds for thinking that an European can triumph this time. Vision d´Etat (Eric Libaud/ Olivier Peslier) has survived another last-minute scare, just as he did before the winning the Hong Kong Cup. He is very high class and racing over his optimum trip. Gloria de Campeao (Pascal Bary/ T. Pereire), runner-up here last year, is another French challenger, while the British hopes are pinned to Twice Over (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), Crowded House (Brian Meehan/ John Velasquez) and Gitano Hernando (Marco Botti/ Kieren Fallon). Godolphin´s hope of Mastery (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), winner of the S t. Leger and probably not speedy enough for this, while the best America is clearly Gio Ponti (Christophe Clement/ RA Dominguez), who finished in front of Twice Over in the Breeders Cup. Almost anything can happen here, we will take a chance on the Japanese mare Red Desire (M Matsunaga/ Christophe Soumillon), who ran a convincing trial.

Quijano (Peter Schiergen /Andrasch Starke) is the only German runner at the meeting. Now an 8yo, he runs for the fourth time in the Sheema Classic on turf at 17.35. To be brutally frank, it will be a miracle if he finishes in the first 4. This is a really tough race, arguably better than the World Cup itself. The pace will be very strong, with American front-runner Presious Pattern (Mary Hartmann/ Elvis Trujillo) in the line up, and on his favoured fast surface he will take some passing. Eastern Anthem (Mahmoud al Zarooni/ Ahmed Ajteni) just beat Spanish Moon (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) in this last year, when Youmzain (Mick Channon/ Kieren Fallon) was also close up. Youmzain is arguably the form choice having finished runner-up 3 times running in the Arc, and holds Cavalaryman and Dar Re Mi on that form. Jukebox Jury (Mark Johnston/ Foyston Ffrech) just held Eastern nthem last year in Cologne, but this is mich toughr. Once again a Japanese contestant looks dangerous - B uena Vista (H. Matsuka/ Olivier Peslier), wile Yiumzain, who rarely wins, looks a good place bet.

The other races are equally tough. Our best bet of the meeting is the Singapore-trained Rocket Man (PB Shaw/ Robbie Fradd) in the Golden Shaheen over 6 furlongs on tapeta at 16.15. He is arguably the second-best sprinter in the world (behind Sacred Kingdom, the only horse to have beaten him lately) and can hold Breeders Cup fourth Gayego (Saeed bin Suroor/ Dettori) and American hope Kinsale King (Carl O´Callaghan/ Garrett Gomez).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jaafer - No Risk Al Maury - Jalab Al Khalidiah
2. Race: Sirocco Breeze - War Artist - All Silent
3. Race: Desert Party - Cat Junior - Kalahari Gold
4. Race: Musir - Mendip - Enak
5. Race: Rocket Man - Gayego - One World
6. Race: Presvis - Imbongi - Good Ba Ba
7. Race: Cavalryman - Spanish Moon - Dar Re Mi
8. Race: Red Desire - Gloria de Campeao - Mr Brock

Dubai World Cup - the world´s richest race ever

Today´s Dubai World Cup over 10 furlongs on tapeta at 18.45 is the richest race ever run, with prize-money of 10 million US dollars. Obviously the race is very competitive with a full field of 14 runners, although no superstar is in the line up this time, but that makes it all the more open. This race is usually run either by a Godolphin runner or an American, but there are grounds for thinking that an European can triumph this time. Vision d´Etat (Eric Libaud/ Olivier Peslier) has survived another last-minute scare, just as he did before the winning the Hong Kong Cup. He is very high class and racing over his optimum trip. Gloria de Campeao (Pascal Bary/ T. Pereire), runner-up here last year, is another French challenger, while the British hopes are pinned to Twice Over (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), Crowded House (Brian Meehan/ John Velasquez) and Gitano Hernando (Marco Botti/ Kieren Fallon). Godolphin´s hope of Mastery (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori), winner of the St. L eger and probably not speedy enough for this, while the best America is clearly Gio Ponti (Christophe Clement/ RA Dominguez), who finished in front of Twice Over in the Breeders Cup. Almost anything can happen here, we will take a chance on the Japanese mare Red Desire (M Matsunaga/ Christophe Soumillon), who ran a convincing trial.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jaafer - No Risk Al Maury - Jalab Al Khalidiah
2. Race: Sirocco Breeze - War Artist - All Silent
3. Race: Desert Party - Cat Junior - Kalahari Gold
4. Race: Musir - Mendip - Enak
5. Race: Rocket Man - Gayego - One World
6. Race: Presvis - Imbongi - Good Ba Ba
7. Race: Cavalryman - Spanish Moon - Dar Re Mi
8. Race: Red Desire - Gloria de Campeao - Mr Brock

Rest of the U.K. and Ireland

There is plenty more racing in the U.K. today, with a listed race, the Magnolia Stakes over 10 furlongs at 16.25 CET at Kempton´s all-weather meeting. However William Haggas fares at Doncaster, he should certainly win this with South Easter (Liam Jones), who was regarded as a classic contender a year ago, but has been off since Royal Ascot.. At anywhere near peak fitness he should see off his 5 rivals here, who are headed by perennial runner-up Suits Me (Tom Tate/ Darryll Holland). Holland also has good chances in the two traditional handicaps, the Rosebery over 11 furlongs at 15.50 on Mark Johnston´s Bcausewecan, and the Queens Prize over 2 miles at 18.40 on consistent Dance the Star.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tiddliwinks - Elnawin - Son Of The Cat
2. Race: King Olav - Martyr - Becausewecan
3. Race: Suits Me - South Easter - Heliodor
4. Race: Takeaway - Johnny Hancocks - Jibouti
5. Race: Midfielder - Duellist - Highland Quaich
6. Race: Love Delta - Raddy `Ell Pauline - Kingdom Of Munster
7. Race: Alsadaa - Dance The Star - Silver Suitor




Thjere is a good jumping card at Newbury, with two listed handicaps for novice mares. The chase at 14.45 should go to top-weight Carole´s Legacy (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty). She was a good second to Quevega at Cheltenham, easily the best form in the race, but that was only last week. Henderson and Geraghty also have prospects in the hurdle race half an hour later with Kerada, unbeaten in 3 starts this season, but this looks wide open, and Queen Poline (Lucy Wadham/ Tony McCoy) could be the value alternative. Th ex-Baltromei group race performer Adelar (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) was an expensive flop on his British debut, but can possibly recover losses in the novice hurdle at 16.20.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Souter Point - Riptide - Theologist
2. Race: Carole`S Legacy - Calusa Crystal - Over Sixty
3. Race: Kerada - Banjaxed Girl - Topsham Belle
4. Race: Carrickmines - Qhilimar - Ballyfoy
5. Race: Osric - The Rainbow Hunter - Adelar
6. Race: Its Crucial - Mam Ratagan - Circus Of Dreams
7. Race: Kid Cassidy - Merehead - Pampelonne




Ruby Walsh is riding at Navan today and can land a treble for Willie Mullins on Glencove Marina in the main event at 18.05 (Rare Bob an obvious danger here), Gagewell Flyer at 15.50 and Lilywhite Dancer at 16.55.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lobinstown Girl - Chasing Clouds - Emily Pankhurst
2. Race: Gagewell Flyer - Marlay Park - Lismakeery
3. Race: Shorecliffe King - Cantrell - Brosna Val
4. Race: Lilywhitedancer - Truckers Delight - Mighty Massini
5. Race: Macidoni - Rockers Field - All The Cousins
6. Race: Rare Bob - Glencove Marina - Watson Lake
7. Race: Tooman Lane - Imperial Storm - Tiernan`S Terror

British flat season opens at Doncaster

The flat season proper starts today in the U.K. with the traditional Doncaster meeting, where the main feature is the valuable Lincoln Handicap over the straight mile at 16.10 CET. With 21 runners this presents the usual puzzle for punters, especially as most of the field are running for the first time in several months. However the money has all come for one horse - William Haggas´ Penitent (Johnny Murtagh). This lightly-raced 4yo has finished first or second on all his 5 career starts, and is very likely much better than a handicapper. Favourites have a good recent record here, but in our view he represents no value at all at the likely odds, especially as his inexperience could count against him in such a race, while on pedigree he is not certain to stay a mile on this track. We would prefer to bet each-way on top-weight Mia´s Boy (Chris Dywer/ Eddie Ahern), a very consistent performer, Albaaqaa (Paul Hanagan), one of 5 runners trained by Richard Fahey, Tiger Reigns (Micha el Dods/ Phillip Makin), a son of Tiger Hll who is a specialist miler, or Smokey Oakey (Mark Tompkins/ Jimmy Quinn), owned by Judi Dench, who won this in 2008. Lang Shining (Martin Dwyer), gaving his first race for Jamie Osborne after being bought out of the Stoute stable, looks the best long-shot.

Penitent is drawn one, right on the inside rail, which is possibly a good draw, but we should know more after the first race at 15.00, the consolation race over the same distance. Benandonner (Mike Murphy/ Andrea Atzeni) is drawn one here and he has a good chance, being fit from the all-weather. Last time he finished just in front of Audemar (Eddie Vaughan/ Dwyer) and that one looks one of several dangers in a wide-open event.

Main supporting feature is the listed Cammidge Trophy over 6 furlongs at 15.35. David Nicholls saddles 3 of the 15 runners, with Tax Free (Franny Norton) clearly the best of the trio; he is best in at the weights, the only problem being the distance, as he is arguably better over 5 furlongs. If he fails to get the trip, Redford (Kevin Ryan/ Neil Callan) could be the one to take advantage.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kiwi Bay - Ben Chorley - Irish Heartbeat
2. Race: Tax Free - Redford - Prime Defender
3. Race: Penitent - Mull Of Killough - Huzzah
4. Race: Squires Gate - Mirror Lad - Mayhab
5. Race: Chain Of Events - Thingathong - Corres
6. Race: Spirit Of A Nation - Red Jade - Aspro Mavro
7. Race: Red Wine - Warne`S Way - Heathyards Junior
8. Race: Starla Dancer - Trans Sonic - Abayaan

Friday, March 26, 2010

3 all-weather meetings today

There is all-weather racing this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Wolverhampton and Dundalk (Irelnd) but the standard is generally low all round. The best race is the 5 furlongs handicap at 19.10 CET at Wolverhampton. Top-weight Le Toreador (Kevin Ryan/ Neil Callan) is the form choice here, having won over this trip a month ago and also scoring over this CD last October, but he has gone up a lot in the weights and meets several opponents who are coming off a break but had good form last season, such as Royal Intruder, who won 4 races in 2009, all with todays jockey Richard Hughes in the saddle. Medicean Man (Jeremy Sask/ Jimmy Quinn) was also a multiple winner last year, but our selection is Noverre to Go /Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote), who has been off since September but ran in good company last year.

The 3yo handicap, also over 5 furlongs, looks the most interesting event this afternoon at Lingfield. Ballyvonane (Luke Dace/ Liam Keniry) won from Tulip Explosion (Derek Shaw/ Martin Lane) over this CD last time, but the latter is now better off at the weights and can gain revenge.

At Dundalk there are some useful performers in the 1 1/2 mile conditions race at 22.00, including two German-breds, Dancera and Grantsville. 12yo Emmpat (Charliw Swan/ Billy Lee) was behind Dancera last time, but has a big pull in the weights, but the one to beat is surely bottom-weight Estephe (Tommy Stack/ Johnny Murtagh). Stack started this season by winning with his first four runners at the Curragh last Sunday and Estephe can continue the sequence.

N.H. racing at Carlisle, Newbury and Sedgefield

3 jumps meetings this afternoon, but only Newbury offers sport at a decent level, and most of the top trainers are in action there, notably Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls, who go head to head in the opening maiden hurdle at 14.50 CET with Anquetta (Barry Geraghty), runner-up on his debut over sticks, and Pendower (Ruby Walsh), winner of his only start, a bumper at Newton Abbot last summer. Both could well go on to much better things, Anquetta is narrowly given the vote today. The 3 miles handicap chase at 16.30 is an open affair. Polyfast (Henderson/ Geraghty) was a disappointing favourite last time, but still cannot be ignored, and the same goes for top-weight Den of Iniquity (Warren Greatrex/ Wayne Hutchinson), who has failed to complete the last twice. Ex-German Swordsman (Charlie Gordon/ Colin Bolger) has not run for a while, so we are narrowing our choice to Arturo Uno (Nigel Twiston-Davis/ Paddy Brennan) and last-time-out winner Dancing Mist (Vic Dartnall/ Tom O´Bri en).

There are small fields at Sedgefield and likely to be several odds-on favourites. Into this category come Howard Johnson´s pair Silent Cliche (Barry Hughes) in the novice hurdle at 15.30 and Pemberton (JP O´Farrell) in the beginners chase at 17.15, as well as Lord Villez (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) in the novice hurdle at 16.40. All 3 should win but are not really good betting propositions at the likely odds.

The card at Carlisle is also very modest. Newman des Plages (Mike Todhunter/ James Reveley) is no star, but is in good form and is also a CD winner; he can defy top-weight in the handicap hurdle at 16.20. Samidzat (Dianne Sayer/ Ryan Mania) won over this CD only last Sunday and can complete a quick double under a penalty in the novices handicap at 17.30, while Jimmy Bond (Kate Walton/ Richard McGrath) is another recent winner who can go in again at 18.05.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Kempton (a.w.) and Thurles (Ireland)

Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes teamed up to win the main event yesterday at Kempton and can double up at this evening´s meeting with Lucky Redback, who has top-weight in the 7 furlongs handicap at 20.50 CET. This is however quite an open race and the lightly-weighted Dinner Date (Tommy Keddy/ Liam Keniry) and Billbury (Steve Williams/ Andrea Atzeni), both runners-up last time, could be dangerous. The race over the same trip for 3yo maidens at 20.20 could be quite informative. Point Out (John Gosden/ Robert Havlin) is the obvious favourite here; he was beaten a nose over this CD on his only start so far, back in October and seems to be highly regarded. However he is badly drawn, and Bohemian Melody (Marco Botti/ Jerry O´Dwyer), also a CD runner-up on his only start, may be an each-way alternative.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tuscan King - Just Mandy - Dr Mathias
2. Race: Jounce - Carioca - Miss Miracle
3. Race: Clairvoyance - Goolagong - Seminova
4. Race: Point Out - Bohemian Melody - Aqua Vitae
5. Race: Lucky Redback - Caprio - Billberry
6. Race: Sunny Spells - Colourful Move - Cold Turkey
7. Race: Drizzi - New World Order - Largem
8. Race: Red Current - Yakama - Herbert Crescent



There is an all hurdles-card at Thurles in Ireland this afternoon, and the interesting runner here is Black Harry (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), whose last run was at the Cheltenham Festival 3 years ago. He fell at the last then when still in contention, and if he is back to that form would have a clear chance here; he receives 10 lbs from Footy Facts (Robert Tyner/ PT Enright), who won a similar race only 4 days ago at Cork and has a fitness advantage now.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Footy Facts - Black Harry - Go Sandy Go
2. Race: Lascalahall - De Bartishell - Code Of The West
3. Race: Cheer Up - Trumph Card - Bruach Na Mara
4. Race: Fennis Boy - Dun Masc - Ag Dul Suas
5. Race: Ballochroy - Monaco Springs - Caffeine Craze
6. Race: Keats Dream - Good Decision - Olifan D`Oudairies
7. Race: Lambro - Spruce Cottage - Lehaunstown

N.H. racing at Ayr, Chepstow and Ludlow

There is plenty of rain about and there could be problems at Chepstow where an inspection has been called. The ground will in any case be heavy there, but that should not bother Star Galaxy (JL and Rhys Flint) who loves this ground and can win his 4th race of the season in the handicap chase at 17.00 CET. The fields here are quite small and there could be non-runners as well if racing goes ahead.

The 3 mile handicap hurdle at 17.35 could go to Philip Hobbs´ Lord Crewe (Tom O´Brien), a CD winner last time out; the obvious danger is Paul Nicholls´ lightly-raced Picture This (Harry Skelton), who has been off the track since October.

Nicky Henderson is always the trainer to follow at Ludlow and he can score another double there today with German-bred First Point (Tony McCoy) in the novice chase at 15.30 and Moghaayer (Andrew Tinkler) in the handicap hurdle at 16.00. The former is a smart hurdle handicapper and won both his races over sticks at this track; he appears to have little to beat today. Bobble Hat Bob (Jonjo O´Neill/ McCoy) is the obvious danger to Moghaayer. The ground should not be too bad here, in which case Isabelonabicycle (O´Neill/ MCoy) could take the mares novice hurdle at 1710; she got bogged down in the mud on her hurdles debut.

Three likely winning favourites at Ayr today are Meridian City (Howard Johnson/ Brian Hughes) in the novice hurdle at 15.10 - off since December but clear best on form- German-bred Noble Alan (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) in the novice chase half an hour later and Overturn (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) in the novice hurdle at 16.15. Noble Alan won a farcical race last week, in which he was the only one to finish, but is still the obvious choice here, while Overturn was a very easy CD winner at the last meeting.

Later: Chepstow has passed an inspection, racing goes ahead

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

All-weather racing this evening at Kempton

Easily the best race at this evening´s Kempton meeting is the conditions race for 3yo´s over 9 furlongs at 20.50 CET. Middle Club (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) had good group race form last season and looks hard to beat on paper, but it may not be that simple. Stan Moore saddles two in-form runners Exceedthewildman (Jamie Spencer) and Kinky Afro (Liam Keniry), who have each won 3 races already this year and have an obvious fitness advantage, while Mark Johnston saddles two well-bred newcomers Velikiy Zevs (Joe Fanning) and Hemera (Greg Fairley) who could be anything.

The two most interesting handicaps are over 5 furlongs at 20.20 and over 1 1/2 miles an hour later. In the latter, Turjuman (Willie Musson/ Steven Donohoe) may be able to repeat his recent CD win, while in the former there is a re-match between Sherjawy (Zoe Davison/ Sam Hitchcott) and Wotashirtfull (James Boyle/ Pat Cosgrave), who were separated by only a nose at Lingfield last time. The latter is now slightly better off and can take his revenge.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Alfredtheordinary - Carr Hall - Major Promise
2. Race: Lunar Limelight - Marjury Daw - Wetherby Place
3. Race: Texan Star - Jumeirah Palm - Ebiayn
4. Race: Wotashirtfull - Sherjawy - Lord Of The Reins
5. Race: Middle Club - Kinky Afro - Hemera
6. Race: Turjuman - Akbabend - War Of The Roses
7. Race: Sapphire Prince - Whodunit - Resplendent Nova
8. Race: Royal Acclamation - Louisiade - Clever Omneya

N.H. racing at Haydock, Hereford and Warwick

The best card at today´s 3 jumps meetings in the U.K. is at Haydock, and the handicap chase at 16.50 CET looks a really hot race. Lease Lend (Tim Easterby/ Richard McGrath) is in great form and can complete a hat-trick, but stern opposition comes from top-weight Jass (Keith and James Reveley) and Leamington Lad (Nigel Twiston-Davis/ Paddy Brennan) among others. By contrast, the handicap hurdle at 17.25, although theoretically a better race, does not look so strong and can go to local trainer Donald McCain with Son of Flicka (Jason Maguire). There are only 4 runnrs in the novic chs at 16.15, but it still looks quite tricky. Marcus (Andrew Tinkler) is now with Nicky Henderson and made a good comeback recently after 2 years off, and may be sharp enough now.

There are also only 4 runners in the novice chase at 15.55 at Warwick, and this should be a penalty kick for Gullible Gordon (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield), who has plenty in hand according to official ratings. Ex-German Hilfiger (Ian Williams/ David Dennis) makes his hurdling debut here at 16.30 and could run well, although William Hogarth (Keith Goldsworthy/ Tony McCoy) is clearly the one to beat here, having been runner-up 4 times in his last 6 starts.

Mostly Bob (Philip Hobbs/ Rhys Flint) is an interesting runner in the conditional jockeys novice hurdle at 16.40 at Hereford. He won his only bumper last year for Willie Mullins and with the Hobbs hurdlers firing could well score on his debut over sticks. Bottom weight Ukrainian Star (Richard Guest/ Timmy Murphy) won well last week and can take the handicap chase at 17.50; he gets 16 lbs from the obvious danger Overlaw. Otherwise one should follow the runners here trained by Venetia Williams, who always does well at her local track.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

German runners in France today

The German runners were out of luck yesterday at Compiegne, where Daudet was disqualified after winning a ladies´ race, and today´s German-trained runners at Lyon and Fontainebleau all seem to face very difficult tasks. Easily the best race of the day is the Grand Prix de l´Hippodrome de Lyon-la-Soie over 1800 metres on sand (as are all the races at Lyon today) at 14.55, which is contested by Werner Hefter´ s Wellinas (Mathieu Sautjeu).

The ex-Baltromei runner Enzio (Dominique Boeuf) won twice on sand at Cagnes-sur-mer and would appear to have a much better chance, but there is very strong opposition from the local stables. Hefter also saddles Le Danseur (Sautjeau) in a 3yo race at 14.20 and Franziskaner (Boeuf) in a low-grade claimer over 2400 metres at 16.25, while another ex-Baltromei running is Delano (Boeuf) in the 2150 metres handicap at 17.25. In our view, Franziskaner probably has the best chance of these.

Werner Baltromei himself has several runners under his own name at Fontainebleau. Al Maktoub (Yann Lerner) runs in a race for unraced 3yo colts at 14.05, and Navicella (Lerner) and Noreia (Thierry Thulliez) in the fillies equivalent half an hour later, whileCeodora, running under the Lacroix name, goes for the 1200 metres handicap at 17.10. These all look very tricky races.

N.H. racing at Exeter, Kempton and Southwell

No flat racing in the U.K. today, even the all-weather tracks at Kempton and Southwell are staging N.H. racing. The most interesting runner in action today is probably Captain Chris (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who goes for the opening novice hurdle over 2 miles at Kempton at 15.00 CET. He was a most impressive winner on his debut over sticks just over 2 weeks ago over this CD and looks a horse with a bright future.

Another novice hurdle winner who can follow up here under a penalty is Great Reason (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) at 16.05, and the same team also have good prospects with the Queen´s Pipe Banner in the handicap hurdle at 16.40. This one had useful novice form and makes his handicap debut on a very reasonable weight, but this is quite a hot race, and Woolfall Treasure (Gary and Jamie Moore) and Galaxy Rock (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) are just two of several dangers.

Philip Hobbs has his string in good form and can also be on the scoreboard at Exeter as we give a final chance to French Saulaie (Tom O´Brien) in the handicap hurdle at 15.40. This one has repeatedly let his supporters down, but shaped better here last time before being hampered and has been dropped in the weights. Smoothöy Dpes It (Venetia Williams/ William Biddick) looks the main danger. The Colin/ Joe Tizzard team is also going well at present and they can continue their winning run with The Jazz Musician in the novice chase at 16.15, where Vodka Brook (Sue Alner/ Daryl Jacon) looks a big threat, while Qulinton (David Pipe/ Hadden Frost) is certainly better than he showed last time and can also not be left out.

Venetia Williams is another trainer who has runners at more than one meeting and sends stable jockey Aidan Coleman to Southwell, where he can take the handicap chase at 15.20 with top-weight Samurai Way. This one, also quite useful on the flat in younger days, was a easy novice chase winner 9 days ago and should be able to take the step into handicap company in his stride. The ex-French Rozoleen is another possible for the same team in the maiden hurdle at 16.30, but he is an unknown quantity together with several of the other runners here, so the race is best treated with caution.

Monday, March 22, 2010

German runners in France today

Several runners trained in Germany at the French provincial meeting at Compiegne today. In the mile claimer for 3yo´s at 15.40 Turfliebe (Miroslav Rulec/ Daniele Porcu) and French Kiss (Norbert Sauer/ Henk Grewe) both run; they are good enough for this grade, but are both coming off a long break and may have a fitness disadvantage compared to the local runners. An hour later, in the claimer for lady jockeys over the same trip for older horses, there are 3 German runners- Owentuo (Stefan Wegner/ Steffi Hofer), Daudet (Hans Blume/ Delphine Santiago) and Romantic Man (Rulec/ Hana Mouchova). Owentuo is the best of these on ratings, but he has to give 4 kilos to the other two, which will not be easy. The best races on the card are the two course B events for 3yo´s, also over a mile; the most interesting runner could be the Wertheimer brothers´ Evaporation (Carlos Laffon-Parias/ Olivier Peslier) in the fillies´ race at 14.35, one of the stable´s big hopes for 2010.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Tinera - Marola - Sapfo
2. Race: Red Barn - Ricci - Macassar
3. Race: Evaporation - Pim Pam - Yushka
4. Race: Arcadia`s Angle - The Joe Mcardle - Diableside
5. Race: Zenside - Shanna Bere - Benaojan
6. Race: Bookend - Distalino - Green Tango
7. Race: Owentuo - Clecame - Romantic Man
8. Race: Shalamara - Alinade - Berenice Pancrisia

Kelso, Plumpton and Wolverhampton

No chance of any high class action at any of today´s 3 British meetings. The only possible star on view is Clive Brittain´s well-bred filly Srda (Seb Sanders), who runs in the 3yo handicap over 9 1/2 furlongs at 16.50 CET at Wolverhampton´s all-weather meeting. She won on her debut at Lingfield over 6 furlongs, but is now moving up in distance, but as an Oaks entry, she should stay this far and more. If she has any pretensions to holding her own in good company, she must win this off a very modest handicap mark. The maiden race here over 1 1/2 miles here could also be interesting. Mark Johnston´s well-bred debutant Dancing Dude (Joe Fanning) is the forecast favourite, but it is asking a lot to expect 3yo to defeat older horses first time out in March. 5yo Boa (Reg Hollinshead/ Graham Gibbons), who was third over this CD last time, has only ever run twice on the flat, but has been placed over hurdles and could be a rewarding each-way alternative.

Over jumps at Kelso, Howard Johnson and Denis O´Regan could be the team to follow. They have several good chances, including Hold Fast in the novice hurdle at 15.10 -pulled up last time, but his previous form was good enough- Marleybow, top-weight in the novices handicap chase at 15.40 and the improving Blacks Bridge, who is up in grade but can complete a hat-trick in the handicap chase an hour later. An interesting opponent here is Quicuyo (Peter Monteith/ Ryan Mania); this own-brother to Quijano has not run for 13 months, but is on a very reasonable mark and will be suited by the better ground.

Another improver who can complete a hat-trick off a low weight is Portrait Royale (Anna Newton-Smith/ Aidan Coleman) in the staying handicap chase at 18.00 at Plumpton. An easy CD winner last time, he meets better opposition now but can still score again. Another who can complete a hat-trick is Willandrich (Ian Williams/ Trevor Whelan), who runs in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at 17.30. He won 3 successive races in June 2007, and was then off the track for 2 1/2 years, but now seems to be in top form. German-bred Aconitum, a son of Monsun, looks the main threat. Talenti (Lawney Hill/ Christian Williams) was a very easy winner at 16-1 at Huntingdon and can defy a penalty in the novice hurdle here at 16.00, but at much shorter odds.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

N.H. racing at Carlisle, Newton Abbot and Fontwell

Not surprisingly, very modest sport on offer at today´s 3 U.K. jumps meetings. Main event at Newton Abbot is the novice chase over 3 1/4 miles at 17.00 CET, with only 5 runners. In theory Paul Nicholls´ Forest Pennant (Nick Scholfield) should win this easily, but after last week´s Cheltenham results one has to be wary of plunging on Nicholls´ hotpots. Vic Dartnall´s two runners, Richard´s Sundance (Harry Skelton) and Dancing Mist (Tom O´Brien) are the dangers; the recent rain, which has turned the going very soft, is to the advantage of the fomer, who flopped last time on better ground, but earlier won twice on heavy.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Organisateur - Beyond Moonbeams - Mega Watt
2. Race: Hereweareagain - Magot De Grugy - Massini Sunset
3. Race: Misstree Dancer - She`S On The Case - Tenawa
4. Race: Forest Pennant - Richard`S Sundance - Ginolad
5. Race: Royal Prodigy - Brigadore - Norman Beckett
6. Race: Matako - Walter De Wodeland - Dutch Bill




The main feature at Carlisle is also a novice chase over 3 miles with 5 runners, and here Ermst Blofeld (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) should win. Classic Cut /James Ewart/ Harry Haynes) who won over this trip at Catterick last time is an obvious threat. The handicap chase over 2 1/2 miles at 17.45 looks quite open, but if top-weight Checkerboard (Howard Johnson/ Denis O´Regan) can reproduce the form he showed when winning over this CD when last seen in October, he must have an excellent chance. More recent last-time-out winners Western Gale (Mike Todhunter/ Graham Lee) and Work Boy (Sue Smith/ Tjade Collier) are the dangers.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Colour Clash - Cool Mission - Chicago Outfit
2. Race: Logans Run - Greenbelt - Mr Woods
3. Race: Ernst Blofeld - Mirage Dore - Classic Cut
4. Race: Long Distance - Wave Power - Samizdat
5. Race: Checkerboard - Award Winner - Work Boy
6. Race: Nuts N Bolts - Jago River - Candleford




Several German-breds are running at Fontwell and Wiesenfürst (Gary and Jamie Moore), who threw away his winning chance by poor jumping last time, can take the handicap chase at 17.55 (assuming he jumps better, of course), while Amore Mio (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle), who was quite a decent hurdler, can win for the first time over fences by taking the beginners chase at 15.40.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sophies Trophy - I`Ve Been Framed - Kauto The Roc
2. Race: Midnight Chase - Amore Mio - Swainson
3. Race: Perfect Reward - Helen Wood - Power Elite
4. Race: Kappelhoff - Normandy Landings - Killfinnan Castle
5. Race: Spare Me - Harcourt - Near The Water
6. Race: Wiesenfurst - Jacksons Pier - Littleton Aldor
7. Race: Fleur De Vassy - Kerasoun - Ronald Jack

Irish flat season opens

Today marks the start of the official flat season in Ireland with a strong card at the Curragh. However the best horses on view will not be racing, but will be seen a doing a racecourse gallop afterwards, with Aidan O´Brien working several of his leading classic candidates including St. Nicholas Abbey. The form of the Aidan O´Brien stable will be put to the test earlier as he has several well-fancied runners. He can take the main event, the Group Three Park Express Stakes over a mile at 16.55 CET with Devoted to You (Johnny Murtagh), who has his stable companion Lady Lupus (Joseph O´Brien) and English raider Danehill´s Pearl (Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote) to beat. O´Brien should also win the 3yo maiden at 18.30, in which he has 4 of the 19runners, with Encompassing, the choice of stable jockey Murtagh, while son Joseph partners Purple Heart, who has top-weight in the 7 furlongs Madrid Handicap for 3yo´s at 18.00 and could well outclass this opposition.

The big betting race at the Curragh is the Irish Lincolnshire over a mile at 17.30. With 22 runners, this is obviously a very tricky race, but ex-German Maximo (Tom McCourt/ BA Curtis), who ran really well at Dundalk last time, should go well off bottom-weight.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Emperor Hadrian - Glor Na Mara - Madeira Man
2. Race: Majestic Dancer - Dance Hall Girl - Full Of Hope
3. Race: Six Of Hearts - Zaralanta - Sioduil
4. Race: Devoted To You - Lady Lupus - Akdarena
5. Race: Motafaany - Award Ceremony - Barack
6. Race: Purple Heart - Hen Night - White Front
7. Race: Encompassing - Reiteration - Captainofthefleet




There is also N.H. racing at Cork, where 6 of the 7 races are over hurdles and the other a bumper. Ruby Walsh is in action here and can land a double with Siberian Tiger for Tony Martin in the maiden hurdle at 15.55 and American Job for Tom Nagle in the conditions hurdle at 17.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jerry`S Agent - Frosted Grape - Headline Act
2. Race: Siberian Tiger - Donnachas Chant - Second Glance
3. Race: Go On Ya Boyo - Total Excitement - Golden Kite
4. Race: Rigour Back Bob - Footy Facts - American Job
5. Race: Capal Dubh Alainn - Dolly Hall - Rossdara
6. Race: The Flying Dustman - Hoochie Mama - All The Eights
7. Race: Romantic Lead - Bring Me Back - Star Stiches

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Today´s N.H. racing

Obviously the jumps racing today in Britain and IrelandTom O´Brien) and Kornati Kid (Richard Johnson) comes as an anti-climax following the Cheltenham Festival, which ended in a bloodbath for punters and a bonanza for the bookies. The big race this afternoon is the Midlands Grand National over almost 4 1/4 miles at Uttoxeter at 16.15 CET. Any further rain will clearly help the chances of Le Beau Bai (Richard Lee/ Oliver Grenall) and Synchronised (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy), who both need soft ground to show their best form. Indeed, Synchronised was pulled out of an easier race at Cheltenham on Wednesday because of the fast going there. This lightly-raced type is moving up in distance here, but is still our selection. Other dangers are Badgerlaw (Jessica Harrington/ Andrew Leigh), who has twice run well in this event, and the Philip Hobbs pair of Ballydub (Tom O´Brien) and Kornati Kid (Richard Johnson).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Action Impact - American Cricket - Miss Ladybird
2. Race: Carrickmines - Summery Justice - Junior
3. Race: Have You Seen Me - Volador - Helpston
4. Race: Le Beau Bai - Giles Cross - Synchronised
5. Race: Just For Jean - Jaunty Dove - Victoria State
6. Race: Five Star Wilsham - Mic`S Delight - Islamouth
7. Race: Kinkeel - Tanners Court - Porta Vogie
8. Race: Off Gallivanting - Dragon`S Roost - Raya Star




It has certainly rained heavily in Ffos Las and there are several non-runners there and some small fields. Most interesting runner here could be The Snail (Evan Williams/ Paul Moloney), who has a break since winning his last 5 races. He has gone up a lot in the weights but can still score again in the handicap hurdle at 16.40.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Captive Audience - J`Adhere - Oursininlaw
2. Race: Adams Island - Hopeful Start - Universal Soldier
3. Race: The Snail - Mous Of Men - Michigan Assassin
4. Race: Wheels Up - Herons Well - Almaydan
5. Race: Wind Instrument - Buck Mulligan - Bubble Boy
6. Race: Backfromthecongo - Plenty Of Chat - Montana Gold
7. Race: Thanks For Coming - Character Actor - Lucky Mix




At Newcastle, Howard Johnson and Denis O´Regan, who had a disappointing Cheltenham, can gain some compensation with Akilak, reverting to hurdling at 17.00 and Nine Stories at 18.10, who has not run for a year but is very well treated off this handicap mark.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Turbo Island - Solis - Checklow
2. Race: Mister Pete - Basford Lass - Ballymacduff
3. Race: Farne Island - Prince Tam - Justtheoneforyou
4. Race: Bold Ransom - Mister Marker - Watercolours
5. Race: Seeking Power - Ocarina - Windy Hills
6. Race: Cassius - L`Eau Du Nil - Glingerbank
7. Race: Liz`S Dream - Nightboat To Cairo - What`S Occurrin




Another team who failed to shine at Cheltenham was Edward O´Grady and Andrew McNamara; they have a couple of good chances at the Irish meeting at Gowran Park today with German-bred Manhattan Boy at 16.20 and Mubrook in the novice hurdle at 16.55.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jim Bowie - King Of The Refs - Fearless Warrior
2. Race: Fennis Boy - Lady Roberta - Playboy Luke
3. Race: Plaisir D`Estruval - Farringdon - Grange Alainn
4. Race: Gates Of Rome - Cass Bligh - Some Slam
5. Race: Andlau - Galloping Gander - Bran Castle
6. Race: Prince Roco - Grab A Grand - Brave Betsy
7. Race: Leney Dow Jones - Artic Island - Alfa Beat

Saint-Cloud stages first group race of 2010

the 2010 flat season is starting to get into top gear and today sees the first group race of the season, the Prix Exbury over 10 furlongs at 15.40 at Saint-Cloud. German-bred La Boum (Robert Collet/ Thomas Huet) must have a good chance here, especially as she has a fitness advantage over most of her rivals, having run at Cagnes sur mer. The 7yo daughter of Monsun was also 7th in last year´s "Arc", which is better form than boasted by anything else in the race. The Aga Khan´s Ashalanda (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Christophe Lemaire) looks the main danger. There are also two listed races for 3yo´s over 2100 metres on the card. Mark Johnston sends Marie de Medici (Greg Fairley) over from N. England to contest the fillies´ race at 14.35 and she must have a fair chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Aizavoski - Makt - Calissee
2. Race: War Monger - Celtic Celeb - Brigantin
3. Race: Marie De Medici - Plume Rose - Sandbar
4. Race: Seabreeze d`Ho - Diamond Boy - Question d`Or
5. Race: Court Canibal - Chinchon - Ashalanda
6. Race: Antarige - Perky - Sharakandi
7. Race: Alpe Doloise - Kibaar - Ice and Shiny
8. Race: Kahya Springs - Owando - Suntil Bere

Top card at Lingfield Park

Lingfield stages its biggest raceday of the year, with theGroup Three Winter Derby over 10 furlongs at 16.35 as the main feature. This has attracted a strong field, including a challenger from France, John Hammond´s Pallodio (Yann Lerner), who won the big race on fibregrass at the recent Cagnes sur mer meeting. However this form is possibly not good enough, and the best chances are held by Tranquil Tiger (Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally), who won his two last two races, both over this CD, and Soul City (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), a smart 2yo who has not run since last June´s Royal Ascot.

The listed Spring Cup for 3yo´s over 7 furlongs at 16.00 can go to Greyfriarschorista (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), who has won his last 3 races in great style and is expected to take this step up in grade equally easily. The other listed race is over 5 furlongs at 1745. It was won last year by Arganil (Kevin Ryan/ Neil Callan), who finished - with several others from this field- behind Jaconet (David Barron/ Phillip Makin) last time. However that was over 6 furlongs, and over the minimum distance we rate Arganil the better.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dingaan - Alfresco - Charlie Smirke
2. Race: The Scorching Wind - Everymanforhimself - Bravo Echo
3. Race: Greyfriarschorista - Hanson`D - Stargaze
4. Race: Tranquil Tiger - Soul City - Pallodio
5. Race: Sworn Tigress - Becausewecan - Dance The Star
6. Race: Jaconet - Inxile - Arganil
7. Race: Deauville Post - Gomrath - Ancient Times
8. Race: Balducci - Al Farahidi - Mejd

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Rest of Cheltenham

The Ryanair Chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.50 CET is the other big race at Cheltenham today, and here we hope to see a royal victory, as the Queen´s Barber Shop (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) mst have an excellent chance. Well beaten in the Gold Cup, Hennessy and King George, he is now being being brought back in distance and today´s trip seems ideal. The excellent form of trainer and jockey is an added argument.

On the other hand, Alan King´s stable is going through a sticky patch, and for that reason we pass over Voy por Ustedes (Robert Thornton) even though he is the highest rated runner. More dangerous in our view are Tranquil Sea (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) and Poquelin (Paul Nicholls) first and second in the big handicap here in November. There is little between them on that form, but while the Irish runner is hoping for rain, Nicholls will be hoping the dry spell continues. Alberta `s Run (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) is another one who comes into the reckoning if the going stays on top.

The other 4 races look very difficult, with 20+ runners in each. Our short lists comprise Hey Big Spender( Colin and Joe Tizzard), Rivaliste (Nicholls/ Walsh) and The Hollinwell (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) in the opening novices handicap chase at 14.30, Alfie Sherrin (Nicholls/ Walsh), Ainama (Henderson/ Geraghty) and the German-breds Fredo and Maucaillou in the Pertemps Final at 15.05, Atouchbetweenthe (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), Watch my Back (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) and another German-bred Victorias Groom (Lucy Wadham/ Dougie Costello) in the handicap chase at 17.00 and finally, in the Kim Muir chase for amateurs at 17.40 Ballabriggs (Richard Harding) - despite top-weight- Galant Nuit (Murphy/ Nina Carberry) and Shillingstone (Sue Alner/ M. Walford).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rivaliste - The Hollinwell - Hey Big Spender
2. Race: Alfie Sherrin - Ainama - Prince Erik
3. Race: Poquelin - Tranquil Sea - Barbers Shop
4. Race: Big Buck`S - Karabak - Tidal Bay
5. Race: Song Of Songs - Watch My Back - Sunnyhillboy
6. Race: Ballabriggs - Shillingstone - Galant Nuit

Cheltenham Festival, third day: World Hurdle

today´s card is arguably the weakest of the four days of the Cheltenham Festival but it is still excellent and a real minefield for punters. So far th meeting has been a bookies´ benefit, with very few favourites winning, and the hottest favourites so far well beaten, and caution is advised. Main feature is the World Hurdle over 3 miles at 16.20 CET, once again with an odds-on favourite representing the powerful Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh combination - Big Buck´s, last year´s winner. After yesterday´s disappointing showing by Master Minded, confidence may not be so strong, but it is still hard to see how he can get beat. Since being switched from chasing, Big Buck´ s is unbeaten in 6 hurdles races, including 3 over this CD, and on the form book should not lose today.

His most serious opponent is another one who failed to live up to expectations as a chaser- Tidal Way (Howard Johnson/ Denis O´Regan), who came back to form with a CD win in January. His trainer won this race 3 times with Inglis Drever, but has made it clear that he does not regard Tidal Way as being in the same class; however he would probably need to be if he is to defeat Big Buck´s.

Alan King´ s two runners must also be respected, Karabak (Tony McCoy), although he has twice been well beaten by Big Bucks over this CD, and Katchit (Robert Thornton), who after all did win the Champion Hurdle here. Since then he has been struggling a bit and he still not does not appeal as an out-and-out stayer. However he runs his best races here, always a factor at this track.

The only other one who could possibly have a chance is Sentry Duty (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who is the dark horse in the field, as he is running in this grade and over this trip for the first time. His stable is in great form, which is an added argument in his favour, but on all logic Big Buck´s should win this comfortably.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Rest of Cheltenham

The remaining 4 races at Cheltenham look extremely difficult with 20+ runners in each and nothing outstanding on form. Our expert expects Silverhand (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) to run well in the Coral Cup, a handicap hurdle over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 17.00, but almost anything could win this. The race is made even tougher by the fact that many of the leading trainers- King, Pipe, Mullins, Henderson etc, have more than one runner and it is not at clear which is the stable´s number one.

The opening National Hunt Chase over 4 miles for amateur riders at 14.30 is an event for plodders and not an attractive betting race, as hardly any of the runners have experience of racing beyond 3 miles. If forced to select two against the field, we would plump for the two Irish brothers Robbie and John McNamara on Ballybraney and Synchronised for Howard Johnson and Jonjo O´Neill respectively.

The Fred Winter at 17.40 is a handicap for 4yo hurdlers and again there is very little collateral form to go on. The unbeaten Bothy (Brian Ellison/ Keith Mercer) could strike a blow for a small stable here, while ex-French Notus de la Tour (David Pipe/ Johnny Farrelly) and Sanctuaire (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) won in great style on the debuts in Britain and could be anything. Pipe´s other runner Hunterview (Tom Scudamore, if he is able to ride after a nasty fall yesterday) could also be dangerous.

Finally, the Champion Bumper at 18.15 could be the usual Irish benefit. No fewer than 11 of the 24 runners are unbeaten and Willie Mullins, who has an excellent record in this, saddles 3 of them, with son Patrick possibly riding the pick, Day of a Lifetime. Brother Tom Mullins also has good prospects with Tartan Times, while Dermot Weld has two runners, with his flat jockey Pat Smullen partnering Hidden Universe. However he is a 4yo, and this age group have a poor record in this - so, for that matter, do flat jockeys, Our main fancy is Edward O´Grady´s Shot from the Hip, even though he will be ridden by owner´s son JP Magnier.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Any Currency - Massasoit - Synchronised
2. Race: Rite Of Passage - Quel Esprit - Finian`S Rainbow
3. Race: Long Run - Punchestowns - Diamond Harry
4. Race: Master Minded - Kalahari King - Twist Magic
5. Race: Quantitativeeasing - Deutschland - Spirit River
6. Race: Notus de la Tour - Sanctuaire - Hunterview
7. Race: Elegant Concorde - Shot From The Hip - Al Ferof

Cheltenham Festival, second day: Neptune and RSA

The twe other Grade One races today are the Neptune novice hurdle over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.05 CET and the RSA Chase for novices over 3 miles at 15.40. Nicky Henderson, who took the main event yesterday, has a strong hand in the latter event and it would come as no surprise were his 3 runners - Burton Point (Tony McCoy), Punchestowns (Barry Geraghty) and Long Run (Sam Waley-Cohen) to take the first three places.

The trainer has described the ex-French Long Run, who is always partnered by this rider, his owner´s son, as "freakishly good" and "frightening". The question is whether he is really suited by 3 miles here on fast ground. Punchestowns seems more reliable- after all he finished runner-up to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle over this CD a year ago, while Burton Point could be a good each-way bet at double figure odds. Diamond Harry(Nick Williams/ Timmy Murphy) is an obvious threat, as is the Irish hope Weapons Amnesty (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell) a CD winner over hurdles at this meeting a year ago.

The Neptune novice hurdle also looks very open There is full Irish confidence behind Quel Esprit (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) and Rite of Passage (Dermot Weld/ Robie McNamara), of which we prefer the latter, but we would also be afraid of Ghizao (Paul Nicholls/ Timmy Murphy), who has an excellent German pedigree, Finians Rainbow (Henderson/ Geraghty) and especially the unbeaten Peddlers Cross (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire), described by his trainer as a certain future champion.

Cheltenham Festival, second day: Champion Chase

High point of another brilliant card from Cheltenham is the Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2 miles at 16.20 CET. All roads lead here to Master Minded (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who will be attempting to win this event for the third year running, a feat only once before achieved. On all known form he should manage this without too many problems, even though he has given his supporters some shocks this season - firstly when losing here last autumn (it was later discovered that he had cracked a rib, so he is excused) and then when taking a terrible mistake at the last when winning last time at Newbury. He cannot afford such mistakes at this unforgiving track, but he is clearly the best horse in the field and it will be a major surprise is something goes wrong this time.

There are two German-breds in the field, Twist Magic (Nicholls/ Robert Thornton) and Well Chief (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy). Twist Magic has the (FR) suffix, but he has a totally German pedigree and has been in great form this season, winning Grade One events easily at Sandown and Ascot, making all on each occasion. The problem with him is that he seems to favour right-handed tracks and has never shone at Cheltenham. He is at much shorter odds than Well Chief, but we much prefer the latter, who always runs well here and has been runner-up twice in this event. He is now approaching the veteran stage, but the drying ground will be in his favour and he looks an interesting place bet at the likely price.

Others to consider are the Irish hopes Big Zeb (Colm Murphy/ Barry Geraghty) and Forpadytheplasterer (Tom Cooper/ Tony McCoy); the former has disappointed on his British runs so far, but we still expect him to go well, while the latter won the "Arkle" over this CD last year from Kalahari King /Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee), who won in great style last time at Doncaster and on that form looks the main threat to the favourite. Our suggested bet here is a tricast with Master Minded to win and Well Chief to finish second or third.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Rest of Cheltenham

The other 3 races at Chelteham are also pretty strong, with huge fuelds and comoetiti betting. The "easiest race" would appear to be the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle (Grade Two) at 17.40, in which two mares stand out on ratings- the Irish challengers Quevega (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) and Voler la Vedette (Colm Murphy/ Barry Geraghty). Quevega was an impressive winner of this last year, but has not run for 10 months, while Voler la Vedette is unbeaten in 4 starts this season. Both of them would probably prefer softer going, but even so, any other winner - of which the most likely would be the ex-French 4yo Sway (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy), a faller on her only British start.

The cross-country at 17.00 is theoretically a handicap but is really a race for specialists, and the real specialist here are trainer Enda Bolger, who has totally dominated the cross-country races, both here and in Ireland, in recent years, and jockey Nina Carberry, who has won this race for the past 3 seasons. She again partners Garde Champetre, winner for the past 2 seasons, and although he is hard to fancy from a handicapping point of view, he will probably win again. Bolger saddles 5 runners, all of them owned by JP McManus, including L´Ami (John T McNamara), runner-up last year and likely to be in the same position today, although he is now better off at the weights. An Irish winner here seems certain, and if th Bolger armada is defeated, it is most likely to be by Silver Birch (Robbie Power) or Sizing Australia (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch).

Th William hanicap chse over 3 miles at 15.40 has 24 runnrs nd looks lmost impossible. The two favourites are Bensalem (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) and The Package (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy), but we also have a sneaking fancy for course spcialist Joe Lively (Colin and Joe Tizzard).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dunguib - Get Me Out Of Here - Oscar Whisky
2. Race: Captain Cee Bee - Somersby - Sizing Europe
3. Race: Bensalem - The Package - Character Building
4. Race: Go Native - Solwhit - Punjabi
5. Race: Garde Champetre - L`Ami - Sizing Australia
6. Race: Voler La Vedette - Quevega - No One Tells Me

Cheltenham Festival, first day: Arkle and Supreme Novices

Two other Grade One races are run at Cheltenham today, the Supreme Novices Hurdle which opens the card at 14.30 CET and the Arkle Challenge Trophy, a novice chase over 2 miles, at 15.05. The former event features Dunguib (Philip Fenton/ Barry O´Connell), the Irish banker of the meeting. He has won his last 8 races (although once disqualified), including all 4 of his hurdles races and was particularly impressive when winning the Champion Bumper at this meeting last year. However he could have an Achilles heel - his jumping; although he has never looked like falling, his jumping has never been fluent and was especially sloppy when easily winning a Grade One at Leopardstown last time.

He finally sprinted past his opponents to win easily on very heavy ground - and today´s much faster going may be another problem. His supporters claim that he will jump better in a larger field going a strong pace, but the bookies seem keen to take him on (many going evens this morning, while he has been odds-on for months) and we agree with this reaction. If there are any chinks in his arnour they will be found out today; the unbeaten Get Me out of Here (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) and Oscar Whisky (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), Willie Mullins´two runners Blackstairmountain (Ruby Walsh) and Flat Out (Paul Townend) as well as Philip Hobbs´ Menorah (Richard Johnson) are the 5 most likely to put this to the test.

The Arkle Trphy is anothr red-hot race with at last half a dozen potential winnersa. Mullins and Hemndrson, who are also strongly represented in the first race, now saddle Sports Line (Walsh) and Riverside Theatre (Geraghty) respectively, and both of them belong on the short list. Captain Cee Bee (Eddie Harty/ McCoy) and Sizing Europe (Harry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) are other fancied Irish runners.They met before Christmas, where the latter won, but only after Captain Cee Bee had fallen when looking very dangerous. Our selection is Somersby (Henrietta Knight/ Robert Thornton), who ran well at this meeting last year and is unbeaten in two starts over fences.

Cheltenham Festival, first day: Champion Hurdle

They´re off! that familiar roar will echo round the Cotswolds this afternoon at 14.30 CET as the 2010 Cheltenham Festival gets under way. Today´s main feature is the Smurfit Kappa (sponsoring the race for the last time) Champion Hurdle at 16.20 with 12 runners, a tricky race to evaluate because of the question marks hanging over several runners. Both Binocular and Solwhit, ach heavily backed ante-post, were doubtful runners until a few days ago, while the others have been meeting and beating each other regularly with inconclusive results. Even if one assumes that the 3 outsiders (according to the betting) have no chance, the other 9 are only separated by a few pounds and any of them could win.

The most reliable form for this race is usually the previous years running, but that was another inconclusive result, with Punjabi (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), Celestial Halo (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) and Binocular (Henderson/ Tony McCoy) in a three-way photo. None of the 3 has really convinced this season, although at least Punjabi was an easy winner of a minor event last time. Celestial Halo is now equipped with first-time blinkers, but as a front-runner, he may be setting the race up for a strong finisher, in which case Go Native (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) and Starluck (Aln Fleming/ Timmy Murphy) would come into the reckoning.

They met in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, in which Go Native, who possibly hit the front too early, just held on from the fast-finshing Starluck, who has recently won on the flat to demonstrate his well-being. Although Starluck looked optically unlucky, we expect Go Native to confirm the form. Earlier he had won the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, a race run at a false pace throughout, so again to be treated with caution. However Go Native is clearly a major contender here - he is unbeaten in 3 races in the UK, all Grade One- and will collect a million pound bonus for connections if he wins today, an added incentive (although none is really needed).

However in our view the one to beat is Khyber Kim (Nigel Twiston-Davis/ Paddy Brennan), who is much improved and finally justifying the high opinion in which he has always been held. He has won his last two races in good style, both here, leaving several of these opponents behind him and is our slction to win from Go Native and Punjabi.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Countdown to Cheltenham

The N.H. Festival at Cheltenham begins tomorrow- the best jumps meeting by far and the biggest betting meeting of the year. Four days of top class racing, featuring the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, the Champion Chase on Wednesday, the World Hurdle on Thursday and the Gold Cup on Friday among a host of other Grade One events. After several days of fine weather, expected to continue until Wednesday at least, the going should be perfect.

Rain is expected on Thursday and Friday, and a decision is still to be made as to whether more watering will be necessary. The large number of Irish-trained runners in just about very event adds considerably to the spice of the occasion. The Irish "banker" is Dunguib in the opening novice hurdle tomorrow, although he is not likely to represent value at the expected skinny odds. The meeting´s other bankers are all trained by Paul Nicholls - Master Minded in the Champion Chase, Big Bucks in the World Hurdle and Kauto Star in the Gold Cup, in which the only serious opponent would appear to be his stable companion Denman. These are also expected to start at odds-on ,and hot favourites often get turned over at this meeting - you have been warned!

The lull before the storm

Today´s British racing is very much the lull before the storm, with all concentration now fixed on the Cheltenham Festival starting tomorrow. However Nicky Henderson, who has several fancied runners at the Festival, can start off the week on a winning note by landing an across-the-card treble in the opening races at Plumpton at 15.00 CET, Stratford at 15.10 and at Taunton at 15.20 with Proud Pretense (Felix de Giles), Super Kenny (Barry Geraghty) and Onemix (David Bass) respectively. 4yo Super Kenny could be the most interesting of these, as he was until recently regarded as one of the stable´s main Triumph Hurdle hopes. Henderson can also land a four-timer with Bonikos (Geraghty) in the beginners chase at 15.40 at Stratford.

Several ex-German horses running today, and we give Kyoto (Nigel Hawke/ Charlie Huxley) an each-way chance in the novice handicap hurdle at 17.20 at Taunton, as well as Sadlers Star (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) and Urban Tiger (Tim Vaughan/ Tom O´Brien), who both run in the selling hurdle at 16.10 at Stratford.

Best bet of the day is Fix the Rib (Gary and Jamie Moore) in the novice hurdle at 16.20 at Taunton; a top chaser, and third to Master Minded last time, he is not so good over sticks but should still be able to beat this modest opposition.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Irish racing today

The two jumps meetings in Ireland are of slightly higher standard than the British fixtures and the prize-money is also much better. The most valuable race of the day is the novices handicap chase at 18.05 CET at Navan, which with 20 runners looks very difficult. Saddlers Storm (Tony Martin/ Davy Russell) and Kimberlite King (Colm Murphy/ Matt O´Connor) are our two against the field. The novice hurdle over 2 miles 7 furlongs at 16.35 is another competitive race, no fewer than 6 of the 8 runners are last-time-out winners. Acapulco (Edward O´Grady/ Andrew McNamara) won well over CD, while Rhyl Accord (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend) was an odds-on flop last time, but has chance to atone here. There are some huge fields, including 30 in the opening maiden hurdle at 15.35. It is rather suprising to see ex-Germn Champus (Noel Meade/ TC Carroll) entered here after the dreadful fall he took last time, but if anywhere near his best, he must take all the beating.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Marlay Park - Dreadnot - Golan Guy
2. Race: Johnnyofcourse - Ballywooden King - Its All Hush Hush
3. Race: Rhyl Accord - Quito De La Roque - West Of The Border
4. Race: Nintytwo Team - Sharekan - Operation Houdini
5. Race: Corskeagh Royale - Deal Done - Taravada
6. Race: Saddlers Storm - Kimberlite King - Whats Up Gorden
7. Race: Good Time Donie - Tornado Bob - Romantic Lead




Willie Mullins probably has better prospects at Limerick, where he can land a treble with Glenlo Abbey in the maiden hurdle at 15.25, Morning Supreme in the listed mares novice hurdle half an hour later - both partnered by Ruby Walsh- and Lios a Choil in the bumper at 18.25 with son Patrick in the saddle. Main event here is the Grade Three mares novice chase at 16.25, but the field does not look outstanding. Tally em Up (Philip Rothwell/ Shane Jackson) has to concede weight all round, but is still the selection.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Glenlo Abbey - Ikidunot - Goban Saor
2. Race: Morning Supreme - For Bill - Lady Hillingdon
3. Race: Tally Em Up - Shuil Aris - Would You Do That
4. Race: Caola Mann - Jack Absolute - Grand Lahou
5. Race: Tooman Lane - Matchbook - Max Almighty
6. Race: Slash And Burn - Johnny Kilawee - Wait For Green
7. Race: Lios A Choill - Dun Bawn - Acey

N.H. racing at Market Rasen, Towcester and Warwick

With the Cheltenham festival starting on Tuesday, there is no point in expecting high-class jumping races today, and the best race in the U.K. is the Crudwell Cup, a handicap chase over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 17.30 CET at Warwick, in which horses with good recent form are conspicuous by their absence. Rimsky (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ David England) and Supreme Keano (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richard McLernon) have at least been placed a few times; we also like the look of Venetia Williams´ Alexanderthegreat, who has not won for 3 years but is now on a very lenient rating. However it is a bit worrying to see stable jockey Aidan Coleman down to ride, as he also has several mounts at Towcester. Also at Warwick, Philip Hobbs´ in form stable can land a double with Present to You in the novice hurdle at 15.30 and Calusa Crystal in the mares novice chase at 16.00, while Richard Johnson, who rides them both, can round off a good day by also taking the handícap hurdle at 17.00 on Alison Thor pe´s easy last-time-out winner Pearl.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Blinded Bythelight - Nono Le Sage - Kirkhammerton
2. Race: Barafundle - Double Pride - Present To You
3. Race: Calusa Crystal - Tot Of The Knar - Daraz Rose
4. Race: War Footing - Celian - Quazy De Joie
5. Race: Share Option - Pearl - Willandrich
6. Race: Rimsky - Supreme Keano - Ballygalley Bob
7. Race: Cinderella Rose - Setter`S Princess - The Hon Tara




Two ex-German runners who can possibly make up for past disappointments at Towcester are Ostland (Charlie Longsdon/ Felix de Giles) in the handicap hurdle at 16.20 and Early Wings (Caroline Bailey/ Andrew Thornton) in the handicap chase half an hour later. The former, who was after all runner-up in the German Derby two years ago, ran really badly last time, but the drying ground should be in his favour and he is given another chance today. The latter has yet to win in 22 British starts, but faces weak opposition and must surely be capable of winning soon off this mark.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Circus Of Dreams - Samurai Way - Mister Watzisname
2. Race: Evella - Cuckoo Lane - Dermatologiste
3. Race: Olympian - Akarshan - Crouch End Flyer
4. Race: Sailor`S Sovereign - Man Of The Moment - Woodlands Genpower
5. Race: Silver Snitch - Edgevine - Dolans Bay
6. Race: Fundamentalist - Va Vavoom - Master Billy




At Market Rasen, Denis O´Regan looks the jockey to follow. He should certainly win the novice hurdle at 15.40 on the unbeaten Malakai for Howard Johnson, and has a good chance in the handicap chase at 18.10 on Tom George´s Overlaw. The 3 mile handicap hurdle at 16.10 looks more tricky; both O´Regan´ s mount Key Time and top-weight Rayshan (Rose Dobbin/ Keith Renwick) have good chances on their best form but are coming off long breaks, which might leave the way open for Tarabaloo (Alan Swinbank/ Brian Hughes).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ban Uisce - Red Onion - Tide Slider
2. Race: Malakai - Sergeant Pink - King In Waiting
3. Race: Omix D`Or - King Of Castile - Cross Compliance
4. Race: Just Playfull - Red Dynamite - Bold Punt
5. Race: Tarabaloo - Key Time - Ballyvesey
6. Race: Fahrisee - Shayaza - Cloudy Spirit
7. Race: Overlaw - Maurisca - Glimmer Of Light

Saturday, March 13, 2010

German runners in France today

Saint-Cloud today stages one of the better cards of the year so far in France, with two listed races. Both have only 5 runners and in each case a German-trained runner is likely to be second favourite to a local hotpot. In the Prix Altiplan at 14.35 over a mile Rolling Home (Andreas Wöhler/ Eddie Pedroza), who has won his last 4 races including the Grosser Preis von St.Moritz, gets 3 kilos from CD specialist Gris de Gris, but if the latter is in top form, this is unlikely to be enough. Similarly in the Prix de la Porte de Madrid, Eminem (Norbert Sauer) faces Pouvoir Absolu (Elie Lellouche/ Antony Crastus). The amazing Eminem never runs a bad race, and has won his last 6, including 4 in France; however he has never yet met an opponent as strong as Pouvoir Absolu. The other German runner today is Peter Schiergen´s Thalamon (Andrasch Starke), who also faces tough opposition in the tiercé mile handicap at 15.08, but is not without a chance if at his best.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Anaxis - Sam Winner - Twinlight
2. Race: Prime Spirit - Principe Uromonte - Aristote
3. Race: Gris De Gris - Skins Game - Rolling Home
4. Race: Zibimix - Cool Star - Satchmo Bay
5. Race: Agent Secret - Eminem - Green Tango
6. Race: Parallel Blossom - Lion Des Flandres - Solitary
7. Race: Malachito - Palosanto - Biens Nanti
8. Race: Salut Thomas - White Bull - Barefoot`s Park

Wolverhampton today

Wolverhampton today stages one of its best cards of the year, and the most interesting event is the Lincoln Trial, a valuable handicap over the extended mile at 16.25. This is a very open race with 13 runners, including last year´s winner Jamie Spencer. After some below-par performances, he came back to form with an easy win last time, but is not so well handicapped now as a result. Tartan Gigha (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) ran two excellent races at Meydan, and a repetition of those forms would probably be good nough, but the return from Dubai to the British winter could be a problem (the same goes for the stable´s Lovelace in the listed race earlier). Our choice is therefore Fanunalter (Marco Botti/ Ryan Moore), who is lightly raced and capable of improvement.

Botti could be in for a good afternoon, as we also like his other runners. he saddles Souters Sister (Jimmy Fortune) in the opening listed race over 7 furlongs, where the danger is Clive Brittain´s Mahadee (Neil Callan), already twice a winner this year. In another good handicap, this time over furlongs at 17.35, Botti has booked Andrea Atzeni for his runner Orpenindeed and he is also on our short list. Kevin Ryan´ s Tiddliwinks (Spencer) would be our selection, but he is badly drawn, so we prefer the stable´s other runner Bajan Tryst (Neil Callan), while Thebes (Mark Johnston/ Greg Fairley), who won this last year and is a recent CD winner, can never be left out.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mahadee - Mia`S Boy - Dunelight
2. Race: Burghley - Edinburgh Knight - Niran
3. Race: Flipando - Tartan Gigha - Fanunalter
4. Race: Il Forno - Clear Ice - Micky`S Knock Off
5. Race: Tiddliwinks - Thebes - Dubai Dynamo
6. Race: William`s Way - Benedict Spirit - Doubnov
7. Race: Fighter Boy - Layla`S Boy - Heliocentric

N.H. racing at Ayr, Chepstow and Limerick (Ireland)

The other 3 N.H. meetings today pale into insignificance beside the card at Sandown - not to mention next weeks events at Cheltenham. However it is interesting that David Pipe sends his regular jockey Tom Scudamore to Chepstow where they can take the opening 3 mile novice hurdle on German-bred Ortolan at 15.20. Being by Next Desert out of a Monsun mare, he should stay well enough. The same combination also has prospects with Very Cool in the handicap hurdle at 17.40. Despite top-weight and miserable form figures, he meets very feeble opposition here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Quideo De Touzaine - Lord Tomnoddy - Qroktou
2. Race: Anay Turge - Munching Mike - Gunnasayso
3. Race: Maktu - My Friend Sandy - Khumbu
4. Race: Chance Du Roy - Pass Me A Dime - Prideus
5. Race: Lord Crewe - Apocal - Colline De Fleurs
6. Race: Sir Winston - Quiet Bob - Incentivise




At Ayr, where the ground has totally dried out, it is a question of finding horses that can act in these conditions after months of soft and heavy going. Glingerbank (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) must have a chance in the handicap hurdle at 16.15, while Fred Bojangles (Ms. Hamilton/ Brian Hughes) and Knockavilla (Howard Johnson/ Ryan Mania) - runner-up now 4 times running - are the form choices in the 2 mile handicap chase at 16.50; however on this ground Charingworth (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) can possibly beat them both. He was well behind Fred over this CD last time, but now meets him on much better terms.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Drussell - Si Bien - Kellystown Lad
2. Race: Stormin Exit - Storymaker - Quito Du Tresor
3. Race: Glingerbank - Son Of Flicka - Quick Will
4. Race: Fred Bojangals - Knockavilla - Charingworth
5. Race: Humbie - Turtle Spirit - Solway Ally
6. Race: Seize - Dawn Ride - Rosie All Over
7. Race: Yes Tom - I`M Frank - Saindor




Ruby Walsh may be riding at Sandown, but there could still be a winner for the family at Limerick, as Our Girl Salley, ridden by his sister Katie, is our choice for the mares bumper for lady jockeys at 16.45. We also fancy that Davy Russell can land a double on the first two races with Paul Nolan´s Point of Light at 14.05 and Charlie Swan´ s Stonethrower half an hour later.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Point Of Light - Are You The One - Hartstone Street
2. Race: Final Question - Stonethrower - Knockbrack Vic
3. Race: Liss Na Tintri - Royal Crew - Guzzle An Go
4. Race: Romanesco - Prince Of Forwards - Castlefort
5. Race: Carlowsantana - Keats Dream - Morereadythanilook
6. Race: Our Girl Salley - Oilily - Moi Desire

Imperial Cup at Sandown Park

the week before Chelteham is obviously not notable for top class N.H. racing, but today´s Sandown card, featuring the Imperial Cup, a valuable 2 mile handicap hurdle at 16.05 CET, is the exception. This is always one of the best handicaps of the season, and the huge bonus offered for a horse that wins here and goes on to score at Cheltenham next week adds to the attraction. With 24 runners the race is extremely open. The likely favourites are Qaspal (Philip Hobbs/ Tony McCoy) and Pepe Simo (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), but that is as much because of their powerful connections than because they stand out on form, and value seekers should look elsewhere. We quite like Hobbs´ other runner Oldrik (Richard Johnson), one of 3 German-breds in the field, and the other two also have chances- El Dancer (Lucy Wadham/ Barry Geraghty) and Press the Button (James Boyle/ Steven Craine). Another for the short list is Aather (Alan Fleming/ Timmy Murphy), but with conditions exactly right for E l Dancer, we make him a good each-way bet at long odds.

Another ferociously difficult handicap is the novice hurdle at 15.00, where Richard Johnson again has good prospects on his father-in-law´ s Fabulous Fred. With 13 of the 18 runners having finished first or second last time, this is very tricky, and we also like Ranjobaie (David Bass), one of two Nicky Henderson entries, and Babysitter (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan).

Nicky Henderson should in any case be on the scoreboard with Lifestyle (Geraghty) in the mares open bumper at 16.40, while the best chance for the Nicholls/ Walsh team is probably Tchico Polos in the novice chase at 17.15.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Ranjobaie - Alfie Spinner - Red Harbour
2. Race: Meanus Dandy - Appleaday - Dead Or Alive
3. Race: Qaspal - Pepe Simo - Aather
4. Race: Lifestyle - Mizzurka - Chicklemix
5. Race: Tchico Polos - King Edmund - Joe Jo Star
6. Race: Nikos Extra - Oracle Des Mottes - Fit To Drive

Friday, March 12, 2010

All-weather racing at Wolverhampton and Dundalk

Two all-weather meetings this evening, at Wolverhamptpn and Dundalk (Ireland). With the Mark Johnston stable still clocking up the winners, we expect both their runners at Wolverhampton to win, Gargano in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 19.50 CET and Parhelion in the maiden half an hour later, both with Joe Fanning aboard. These are possibly decent performers, but the majority of runners here are very poor and the standard of racing is much higher at Dundalk, where several of the top Irish trainers have runners. Dermot Weld can take the 3y fillies maiden at 20.00 with Brushed Aside (Pat Smullen), while Jim Bolger can win the colts´equivalent half an hour later with Luan Cincise (Kevin Manning). The best race is the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 22.00; several of the runners were in action here a fortnight ago at the opening meet of 2010, with Bashkirov, Dark Prospect and German-bred Dancera all winning; one of them should follow up this evening.

4 jumps meetings today

There are 4 N.H. meetings in the U.K. today, and with temperatures rising and the weather improving, there should be no problems anywhere, with the ground drying out rapidly. It is Grand Military Gold Cup day at Sandown., always regarded as the favourite fixture of the late Queen Mother. Three races are rstricted to horses roden by memebers of th armed forces.

The big race itself at 16.30 CET features two previous winners - Bolachoir (S. Slevin/ Lucy Gardner) and Oakfield Legend (PS Payne/ Sally Randall) and they should both be involved again. The dangers are Scots Dragoon (Nicky Henderson/ Major Michael) and Gaora Lane (Charlie Mann/ Capt. Wallace), our each-way selection. Henderson should in any case win the final novice hurdle at 18.15 where he has two runners, Lush Life (Barry Geraghty) and Zazamix (David Bass). The former won in good style last time and can score again, but Cois Farraig (Paul Webber/ Wayne Kennedy), runner-up to the smart Oscar Whisky this CD last time, is an obvious threat.

There are also 3 races for amateurs at Leicester, but the most interesting events are for the pros. Devils River (Anna Brooks/ Andrew Tinkler) and Tooka (Tony Middleton/ Charlie Poste) were both just beaten last time and can fight out the finish of the novices handicap chase at 17,15, while half an hour later Captain Smoothy (Sean Curran/ Antony Freeman), also just caught this CD last time, can go one better in the 2 mile 7 furlongs handicap chase.

At Ayr, Keith and Jams Reveley can continue their good run with Categorical in the staying handicap chase at 16.55. He won nicely at Newcastle last time over 2 1/2 miles but this extra distance should not be a problem. Fiftyfive Degrees (Paula Robson/ Timmy Murphy), who also won over shorter last time, is the danger. German-bred Safin is not the most consistent, but must have an each-way chance off bottom weight in the handícap hurdle at 17.30.

Finally Ruby Walsh teams up wíth Paul Nicholls for two mounts at Wincanton, Great Mates in the novice hurdle at 16.45 and Murrell in the bumper at 18.30. Both were beaten at odds-on when last seen, some months go. Murrell should win today, but Great Mates faces a tough opponent in the shape of Gordon Elliott´s Meath All Star (Keith Donoghue, an impressive winner last time at Ffos Las and an intended runner next week at Cheltenham.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

German runners at Deauville

Deauville stages a fibregrass meeting today with German-trained runners in 3 races. Lasse (Pavel Vovcenko/ Mikael Barzalona) tries to recover Cagnes sur mer losses in the tiercé handicap over 1900 metres at 13.35. at his best he would have a chance at this level, but he is badly drawn /17 of 18) and the opposition as always is tough. Andreas Löwe has two runners later on, Slona (Antony Crastus) in the 1500 metres claimer at 16.10 and Ocareion (Carina Fey) in the claimer over the same trip for lady jockeys half an hour later, in which New Fan (Sara Weis/ Steffi Hofer) is also engaged. New Fan is better than claiming class, but this distance stretches him and at these weights we prefer the Löwe runner.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: L`Impressioniste - Szerelem - Sharga
2. Race: Rainfall Shadow - Kamarimou - Claude
3. Race: Rue De La Victoire - Histoire - Printemps D`Alsace
4. Race: Guy De Normandie - Parisis - Salento
5. Race: Diktal De La Tour - Prince Elidane - Queen Charmer
6. Race: Marangu - Lady Aline - Grand Nordique
7. Race: Western Piazza - Vestris - Ocareion
8. Race: Almaguer - De Zephyr - Aragog

All-weather racing at Southwell and Wolverhampton

More of the same dreary sport at Southwell this afternoon and Wolverhampton this evening, but we would not be surprised to see trainer Michael Bell and jockey Hayley Turner team up to win maiden races at both courses - with Juicy Pear at 16.25 CET and Dr. Finley at 19.30; both have shown consistent form at this level and look likely to score before long in this lowly company. Otherwis the best race at Southwell, is the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.55.

Top-weight Frognall (Ruh Carr/ Andrew Elliott) was third in a much stronger race at Newmarket last time, but that was in October. On recent form last-time-out winners Jack Rackham and Hits only Jude can be preferred.

Easily the best race on the all-weather today is the 9 1/2 furlongs handicap at 19.00 at Wolverhampton. here again the top-weight and classiest runner, Tartan Gunna (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) is coming off long break; his last race was at Ascot in October, but with the stable still going great guns, he can still win here. Baylini, Orchard Supreme and Stand Guard are next best in an open race.

N.H. racing at Carlisle, Wincanton and Clonmel (Ireland)

Normally the safest tactic for the punter at Wincanton is to back all Paul Nicholl´s runners blind. However he only has one runner today - Gullible Gordon (Nick Scholfield) in the novice chase over an extended 3 miles at 17.05 CET. So that is a tip in itself, especially as he is the highest rated horse in the field of 5. However this is still quite tricky, as Gullible Gordon has now failed to complete twice, while his two most dangerous opponents, top-weight Richards Sundance (Vic Dartnall/ Jack Doyle) and Blazing Bailey (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) both won well last time out.

The former scored over this CD and is a tentative suggstion, although Blazing Bailey was easily the best of these over hurdles. Best bet here should be Ciceron (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) in the handicap hurdle at 16.35; he scored very easily last week at Bangor and can follow up under a penalty. German-bred White on Black has not run for ages and is best watched, but Gaspara (David Pipe/ Greg Supple) is an interesting outsider, despite appalling form figures. He has been dropped 40 lbs since his 2007 heyday (when he won the Imperial Cup and thn at Cheltnham) and has akways shown his best form at this time of year.

t Crlisle, Donld McCain can tae th two novice hburdles thatopen the card, with dge of Tome (John Kington) at 15.10 and Tara Royal (P Lane) half an hour later. Rose Dobbin is very selective with her runners, but Middleton Dene ran a good race last time and can win the beginners chase at 16.15 with Graham Lee in the saddle.
In Ireland, Ruby Walsh has some promising rides at Clonmel and can win the handicap chase at 17.45 on top-weight The Corby Glenn, an easy winner last time, and the beginners chase half an hour later on Tony Martin´s Psycho. The mares beginners chase at 17.10 looks interesting and should mainly concern Coscorrig (A Lynch/ RT Dunne) and Kind oscar (IJ and JW Hannon), both of when showed up well last time and meet lesser opposition now.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

all-weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton

the usual very modest fare at today´s two all-weather meetings, this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Wolverhampton, and some small fields as well. By far the most interesting race at Lingfield is the 3yo handicap over 10 furlongs at 15.0 CET. On recent form Exceedthewildman (Stan Moore/ Kieren Fox) has an obvious chance, but he looks exposed after several recent runs, and top-weight Stags Leap (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes), who won twice last year before being well beaten in a group race at Ascot, seems a more likely winner, while the lightly-raced Bint Doyen(Clive Brittain/ Neil Callan) and Epic (Mark Johnston/ Grg Fairley) should not be overlooked with their stables in excellent form. There are only 4 runners in the 5 furlongs handicap at 18.00. Wotashirtfull (James Boyle/ Pat Cosgrave) has a good strike rate over this CD and can take this off top-weight.
Neil Callan travels on to Wolverhampton, where he can win the main event, a 7 furlongs handicap at 19.30 on Cheviot, one of the first 2010 runners for Newmarket trainer Michael Jarvis. Cheviot has not run since June, but his overall form is the best in th race. Of several German-breds running here, Sworn Tigress (George Baker/ Tony Culhane) has easily the best chance; she trotted up here last week and can score again under a penalty at 21.30. Misaro at 18.30 and Escardo at 20.30 could also run into the money.

Betting forecast Lingfield:
1. Race: Stags Leap - Exceedthewildman - Bint Doyen
2. Race: Hurakan - War Of The Roses - Lytham
3. Race: Star Choice - Prince Charlemagne - Mustajed
4. Race: Magic Omen - Shamir - Sayyedati Storm
5. Race: Saddlers Bend - Top Flight Splash - Copperwood
6. Race: Lopinot - King Canute - Woolston Ferry
7. Race: Sherjawy - Step It Up - Wotashirtfull
8. Race: Binnion Bay - Join Up - Turkish Sultan



Betting forecast Wolverhampton:
1. Race: Klynch - Chjimes - Misaro
2. Race: Sir Frank Wappat - Zinjbar - Born A Dancer
3. Race: Cheviot - Dubai Dynamo - Ishiadancer
4. Race: Cobo Bay - Seasider - Lord Fidelio
5. Race: Satwa Moon - Houston Dynimo - Jeer
6. Race: King`S Icon - Forward Feline - Dajen
7. Race: Sworn Tigress - Corrib - Yakama
8. Race: Ella Woodcock - By Command - Efficiency