Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Fairyhouse and Sedgefield

Both Fairyhouse and Sedgefield have passed an early morning inspection and racing is on at both tracks. Ruby Walsh, as so often, looks the jockey to follow at the Irish track. He can win the novice hurdle at 15.25 CET on Willie Mullins´ Arvika Ligeonniere, the handicap hurdle at 16.25 on Tony Martin´s ex-German Le Marquis and the handicap chase at 17.25 on his father´s Seabass. He should also go close in the beginners chase at 16.55 with Mullins´ Kempes, but here we prefer Nicanor (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry); both were smart hurdlers but on overall form Nicanor should have the edge.

The going will be very heavy at Sedgefield, but that should not stop Tilt (Brian Ellison/ Keith Mercer) from defying a penalty in the novice hurdle at 15.40; he was quite useful on the flat and has shown talent over hurdles. The beginners chase here at 16.10 has only 5 runners, but looks quite tight. Ferdy Murphy has his team in good form, so Riguez Dancer( Graham Lee) should be involved, but Middleton Dene (Rose Dobbin/ Keith Renwick), who has been off since October, stays well, goes on the heavy and was the better over sticks, so he is the selection.

Monday, February 08, 2010

Lingfield (N.H.), Southwell (N.H.) and Wolverhampton (a.w.)

at first sight it looks as of all today´s 3 British meetings are on the all-weather, but in fact Lingfield and Southwell both switch to jumps racing this afternoon. Southwell has the better card, and some quite useful performers line up for the novice chase over 3 miles at 16.10. Burton Port (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) in unbeaten over fences and looks a bright prospect but he is set to concede weight to The Sliotar (David Pipe/ Tony McCoy) and Blazing Bailey (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson).

The latter pair met recently at Ffos Las, where the Pipe horse came out narrowly on top, but Blazing Bailey now reopposes on 6 lbs better terms. He was the best of these over hurdles, and although his attitude has sometimes been questioned, he must be the selection at these weights. King and Hutchinson also have a good chance with Nikos Extra in the 3 mile handicap chase at 15.40, but both Oscar Park (David Arbuthnot/ Daryl Jacob) and Idle Talk (Donald McCain/ Brian Harding) would be very dangerous if anywhere near their best form of a couple of seasons ago.

At Lingfield, the novice hurdle at 15.20 looks the most interesting race. Sarando (Paul Webber/ Liam Treadwell) started at 33-1 last time, but gave hot favourite Salden Licht a fright and he can go one better now. Venetia Williams´ Samurai Way (Sam Thomas) is an obvious danger, but might prefer better ground, while The Rainbow Hunter (Andrew Turnell/ Edward Cookson) has already won on the heavy, but therefore carries a penalty. German-bred Amore Mio (Emma Lavelle/ Jack Doyle) is another one who would not like the ground too heavy, and we give prference to Quinte du Chatelet (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) and Magnifico (David Evans/ Andrew Glassonbury) in a very open handicap hurdlw at 17.20.

The most difficult puzzle for punters to solve today is the 5 furlong sprint which opens Wolverhampton´s all-weather card at 15.00, as almost all the 13 runners are CD specialists. One notable example is Almaty Express (John Weymes/ Chris Catlin), 11 of whose 13 career victories have come over this CD. He was out of form last autumn, but could be refreshed now after a short break and has dropped to a very tempting mark. One horse who could possibly use a break is Obe Gold (Paul Howling/ Jean-Pierre Guillambert), who will be running for the 8th time since Christmas when he contests the 7 furlongs seller at 16.00, He has kept his form really well, but this distance could be too far for him and we prefer Ravi River (David and Richard Evans) who ran a good race at Lingfield on Saturday and is in any case the highest-rated runner in this field.

Sunday, February 07, 2010

Fontwell, Musselburgh and Southwell (a.w.)

Racing in the U.K. today is completely overshadowed by events in Ireland, but it is interesting that Nicky Henderson sends a powerful team on the long journey to Scotland to contest several races at Musselburgh. He has 2 of the 7 runnes in the novice chase at 16.00, The Polomoche with stable jockey Barry Geraghty and Working Title (Andrew Tinkler), who fell when going well last time. He can finish 1-2 here and other likely winners for the stable are Candy Creek in the novice hurdle at 14.30, Eradicate in the handicap hurdle at 16.30, (despite a long absence) and Owen Glendower in the bumper at 17.30, all with Geraghty on board. He has no runners in the so-called Scottish Triumph Hurdle at 15.30, which should mainly concern Carlito Brigante (Gordon Elliott/ Jason Maguire) and Baccalaureate (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan).

Henderson can also be on the scorecard at Fontwell with Ryde Back (Felix de Giles) in the novice hurdle at 15.20; however we just prefer Ashfields Dream, who can complete a double for trainer Evan Williams and jockey Paul Moloney, who can also take the opening 4yo hurdle with Extreme Impact.

The flat racing on the all-weather at Southwell is of very low standard. Paul Hanagan could be the jockey to follow here, and he can win the 3yo maiden with Richard Fahey´s Just Mandy at 15.40 and the 3yo handicap an hour later on John Jenkins´ top-weight D´Urberville.

Fontwell - betting forecast:
1. Race: Orzare - Causeway King - Diktalina
2. Race: Ryde Back - Vino Griego - Bangkok Pete
3. Race: Omme Antique - Hobb`S Dream - Killfinnan Castle
4. Race: Stoney`S Treasure - Sebastiano - Near The Water
5. Race: Ballymorn - Brushford - Wadswick Ben
6. Race: Montana Gold - French Ties - Saddlers Mot
7. Race: Management - J`Adhere - Poppy Come Running

Southwell - betting forecast:
1. Race: Borasco - Miss Bootylishes - General Tufto
2. Race: Inside Track - Tiger Hawk - Red Valerian Two
3. Race: Just Mandy - Binthere Dunthat - Fine And Dandie
4. Race: Flow Chart - Tamarind Hill - Marjolly
5. Race: Bertie Buckle - D`Urberville - Premium Charge
6. Race: Boundless Prospect - Dunaskin - Dream In Blue
7. Race: All Guns Firing - Mister Frosty - Highland River

Musselburgh - betting forecast:
1. Race: Candy Creek - Alvarado - Backstage
2. Race: Lord Ragnar - Ladies Best - Abstinence
3. Race: Carlito Brigante - Baccalaureate - Ascendant
4. Race: The Polomoche - Working Title - Door Boy
5. Race: Eradicate - Zanir - Wikaala
6. Race: Striking Article - Albanov - John Forbes
7. Race: Owen Glendower - Robbie - Allow Me