Sunday, January 03, 2010

German runners at Deauville

a huge card at Deauville today with 4 races in the morning and 9 in the afternoon including many German-trained runners. Main event is the listed Prix Miss Satamixa for fillies and mares over 1500 metres at 14.50, in which both Samara Valley (Peter Schiergen/ Maxime Guyon)- twice an easy winner at Dortmund - and Marny (Hans Blume/ Gaetan Masure) can be expected to run well.

The race which in our opinion is the most likely to have a German winner is the conditions race for jeunes jockeys over 1300 metres at 14.20; Fareion (Sascha Smcrzek/ Eric Wehrel) is the best horse in the field here, but will not find it easy to concede 3 kilos to Aturo (Christian Sprengel/ Delphine Santiago). There are no fewer than 6 German runners in a similar race over 1500 metres at 15.25, with the same teams represented by Lord of Esteem and El Vettorio respectiveley, although Daudet (Blume/ Romain Perruchot) also has a decent chance.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Madonna Incognito - Magic Roundabout - Sweet Yasmina
2. Race: Seehecht - Principe Uromonte - Lined
3. Race: Fareion - Chicaya - Western Piazza
4. Race: Rockette - Zibeling - Samara Valley
5. Race: Churriana - Blow The Lot - El Vettorio
6. Race: Chelgui - Moscow Eight - Nuit De Glace
7. Race: Mister Chocolate - Lyubov - Serenitea
8. Race: Hamilton Blue - Lune Opaque - La Biriquina

Plumpton (N.H.) and Kempton (a.w.)

Today´s Irish meeting at Naas has been abandoned, leaving only two modest fixtures in the U.K. - over jumps at Plumpton (where a further inspection is due) and on the all-weather at Kempton. Assuming Plumpton goes ahead, Nicky Henderson can start off by winning the first two races, the novice hurdle at 13.50 CET with Ranjobaie (Tony McCoy) and the novice chase half an hour later with Miss Sarenne (Andrew Tinkler) - however neither are bombproof. The former started at 5-2 on last time at Leicester and shocked his supporters by falling at the last with the race at his mercy; his main opponent is Notus de la Tour (David Pipe/ Johnny Farrelly), making his British debut after an easy win at Auteuil last time. The latter is well treated at the weights, but has also been beaten twice at odds-on. She also carries JP McManus´second colours, with McCoy riding Alan King´s Franchoek, who looked so promising two years go but has been a big disappointment since.

Most valuable race at Plumpton is the Sussex National over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 15.20. This looks wide open with 13 runners, most of them coming here on good form. We fncoed io-weight Temoin (Richr Phillips/ Wayne Hutchonson) for Sandpws n big handop yestrday, but do not think he will act so wll here. Likelier winners seem to be the much improved Master Overseer (Pipe/ Farrelly), Pipo de Re (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) and Tarquinius (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily).

At Kempton, the two best races are the class 4 handicaps over 1 1/2 miles at 16.35 and 6 furlongs at 17.05. The lightly-raced CD winner Tripitaka (Michael Jarvis/ Neil Callan) will probably start favourite for the former, but it looks very tricky; ex-Argentinian Free Tussy (Gary Moore/ Fergus Sweeney) is moving up in distance but is in great form, while Maslak (Paul Hiatt/ Chris Catlin) was just touched off last time after hitting the front too early.

Saturday, January 02, 2010

All-weather racing at Southwell and Lingfield

The two all-weather meetings today should in any case ensure some action, and the most interesting runner at Southwell could be What´s up Doc (Mrs. TJ Hill/ Dane O´Neill) in the claiming race at 15.30 CET. When last seen, over hurdles in October, he was a faller, but had earlier been in good form both over sticks and on the flat- winning 4 races - and if he is now back to that form can beat today´s opposition. Another one with something to prove is Prohibition (William Haggas/ William Carson), who started at odds-on on his recent comeback after a year off, but finished last. His chance to rehabilitate himself comes in the 7 furlongs handicap at 13.55, but top-weight Caprio (James Boyle/ Nicky Mackay) may be more reliable. He started at 33-1 when winning last time, but won´t be that price today. It could be a big day for his trainer, who also has some good chances at Lingfield, notably Party in the Park (Matthew Davies), who has been runner-up 4 times in his last 5 starts and can get his head in front at 14.35, and Wunder Strike (Steven Craine) at 15.10, who has won his last 3 races - 2 this CD - and still appears well handicapped. Also at Lingfield, we expect Tiradito (Marco BottI/ Martin Dwyer) to win the 3yo maiden at 14.05 - don´t forget that the runners here were all 2yo´s two days go!