Group and graded races at Tipperary

Obviously flat racing takes a back seat today and all 3 U.K.meetings are over jumps. There are plenty of non-runners and some small fields as well, so that they are not so interesting for betting purposes, especially when compared to the goings-on at Longchamp. The best race is the handicap chase at 17.25 CET at Kelso; Simply Ned (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) is the class act here, but we feel that the handicapper has overreacted to his two good places in smart company and we doubt that her can concede so much weight to some useful rivals. Kumbeshwar (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) is having his first race for new connections, is coming off a break, but is well handicapped on his old form and is our selection.

There is much better racing in Ireland where there is both a group race on the flat and three graded races over jumps at Tipperary. Dermot Weld has bigger fish to fry today, but he can pick up the Concorde Stakes at 15.40 with Big Break (Liam Roche). Rebel Fitz (Michael Winters/ Barry Geraghty) has won 17 of his 27 starts and been runner-up 7 times; he seems equally at home over sticks and fences and recently won the flat as well and has an obvious chance in the Istabraq Hurdle at 16.50. Istabraq was of course owned by JP McManus and he has prospects of winning the novice hurdle half an hour later with either Tony Martin`s Cillians Return or Aidan O´Brien´s Draco (another trainer who will be in Paris!)

Ruby Walsh makes his comeback today after his bad fall at Cheltenham. He partners Indevan for Willie Mullins in the novice chase at 18.25 and obviously everybody will be hoping that he makes a winning return to action.

Ascot today

Ascot also stages a strong card today, headed by two group races and two listeds. There is a strong German interest in the Bengough Stakes over 6 furlongs at 16.15 CET, as the large field includes Signs of Blessing (Francois Rohaut/ FX Bertras), winner of the Goldene Peitsche, and Caspar Netscher (David Simcock/ Martin Harley), winner of the German 2000 Guineas in 2012. We were impressed with the former when he won at Baden-Baden and think he must have a chance in this stronger race. The main dangers are 2013 winner Tropics (Dean Ivory/ Robert Winston), also runner-up in the July Cup, Reckless Abandon (Charlie Appleby/ Kevin Manning), Europe´s top 2yo in 2012 and now back from a fruitless period at stud, and the unbeaten Lightning Moon (Ed Walker/ George Baker), full of promise but now sharply up in grade.

There are only 5 runners in the Cumberland Lodge over 1 1/2 miles at 15.40.With Charlie Appleby now in such good form, we hope that his Encke (Paul Hanagan) can reverse earlier form with Pethers Moon (Richard Hannon/ Pat Dobbs) on 5 lbs better terms.

Hanagan can also take the listed 5 furlongs race that opens the card at 15.05 on William Haggas´ Muthmir, winner of the Portland Cup last time. He runs here in preference to the Abbaye tomorrow at Longchamp, and obviously this loks much easier, although last year´s winner Steps (Roger Vrian/ Andrea Atzeni) could be a problem.

The other listed race is for fillies over 7 furlongs at 17.25 and should lie between Al Thakhira (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) and Queen Catrine (Charlie Hills/ Oisin Murphy). They flopped in the Irish and French 10900 Guineas respectively, but still have by far the best form in this company.

There is plenty more racing today and we must mention the Irish N.H. Meeting at Gowran Park, where the admirable Sizing Europe (Henry de Bromhead/ Jonathan Burke) attempts to win the PWC Champion Chase at 17.45 for the fourth time. We hope he succeeeds, although the opposition this time looks stronger than usual.

Newmarket: Sun Chariot Stakes

All eyes will be on Longchamp this weekend, and especially tomorrow´s Arc card, the richest in Europe, but in fact today´s racing in the U.K. is better than in France and the prize-money is higher too, thanks to the two immensely valuable sales races for 2yo´s which start the Newmarket card. With 168K GBP for the winner of the fillies race at 14.50 CET and 280K GBP for the colts race half an hour later- both over 7 furlongs, there will be no hanging about here and the winners will have to be serious group race performers. Our two in the fillies race are Osaila (Richard Hannon/ Frankie Dettori), already with good Group One form to her credit, and Very Special (Saeed bin Suroor/ James Doyle), who lived up to her name when winning in modest company at Yarmouth. The colts´ race looks much trickier, but in view of the tremendous Godolphin form at present, we go for Outlaw Country (Charlie Appleby/ Pat Smullen).

Top event here is the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes for fillies over a mile at 16.30, a race in which French fillies have an excellent record. That could be maintained today, as André Fabre trains no fewer than 3 of the 7 runners: Esoterique (Pierre-Charles Boudot), Fintry (Mikael Barzalona) and Miss France (Maxime Guyon). All 3 deserve their place in the line-up and it is difficult to choose between them, but we go for the last-named, who won the 1000 Guineas over this CD in May. That race was won last year by Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) who also won this race from Integral (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore). Most of these have met before, e.g. at Deauville where Esoterique beat Miss France, while Kiyoshi (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer), who showed good speed to win a Doncaster Group Three last time, is also not out of it.

The Group Three Oh So Sharp Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.55 is probably easier to win that the earlier sales race, and we expect the two Godolphin runners, Local Time (bin Suroor/ Doyle) and Yodelling (Appleby/ William Buick) to be involved in the finish.

The listed race over 6 furlongs at 17.40 is also for fillies -older ones this time- and Minalisa (Rae Guest/ Fran Berry), runner-up in the Ayr Gold Cup last time, looks the likeliest winner, though Indignant (Hannon/ Buick) and Penny Drops (William Haggas/ Moore) both look dangerous.