Friday, June 07, 2013

Listed races this evening

A busy, busy day with no fewer than 8 meetings in the U.K. and Ireland. The best racing is in the evening, with listed races at Haydock and in Ireland at Leopardstown. There are in fact two such events at the latter track, the Saval Beg Stakes over 1 3/4 miles at 20.20 CET and the King George V Cup for 3yo´s over eleven furlongs half an hour later.The Saval Beg is often used by Irish trainers as a prep for the Gold Cup at Ascot, but the two main Irish hopes for that race, Rite of Passage and Saddler´s Rock, both miss the race because of the firm ground. However Rite of Passage´s trainer and jockey, Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen, could still win with Pale Mimosa, who has not run since the Arc meeting, but still looks the one to beat. The obvious, and probably only, danger is the lightly-raced El Salvador (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), but we are not sure that he will act on this ground. The King George V Cup is a late Trial for the Irisjh Derby, though we cannot see many of this ev ening´s runners playing any sort of role in the classic. The O´Brien´s can take with Count of Limonade, who holds the Aga Khan´s Dibayani (Mike Halford/ Declan McDonough) on a line through another O´Brien 3yo Leading Light; Weld and Smullen have a possible danger here in very lightly-raced Resolute Response, who is taking a huge leap in class.

At Haydock, the 5 furlongs Achilles Stakes at 21.15 is the main feature. Excelette (Bryan Smart/ Royston Ffrench) won this last year, beating subsequent Group race winner Spirit Quartz, and a return to that form would give her a great chance of a double. However on her latest form she looks held by My Propeller (Petert Chapple-Hyam/ Ryan Moore), and she is our selection, although Irish raider Nocturnal Affair (David Marnane/ William Buick) also looks dangerous. For fans of German breeding we recommend Moon over Miami (owner, trainer and jockey: D.Holmes) at 18.55, and Lightning Strike (Paul Webber/ Liam Treadwell) an hour later, both at Stratford´s N.H.meeting this evening, where the top race is the hunter chase at 21.30. This has attracted many of the top British and Irish hunter-chasers, including Salsify (Rodger and Colman Sweeney), who won this last year and this year has been successful in the top events at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Special Mix - Gran Maestro - Breakheart
2. Race: Mawfoor - Safety Check - Fair Ranger
3. Race: Rock N Rouge - Ben Hall - Capitulate
4. Race: Medicean Man - My Propeller - Excelette
5. Race: Visit Copenhagen - Brave Acclaim - Red Red Wine
6. Race: Ennistown - Ray Ward - Mystery Bet

Thursday, June 06, 2013

6 more meetings today

Plenty of racing again, and some large fields, but mainly of very moderate performers. The main interest will be to see if Frankie Dettori can finally get off the mark today; he has so far failed to win a race since his comeback from a lengthy suspension last week, but he looks to have some decent chances at Sandown this evening. We think his best prospect is William Haggas´ Asian Trader in the 5 furlongs handicap at 19.50 CET.

The 4yo had health issues last year, but showed much improved form on his seasonal debut when an easy winner at Bath six weeks ago. He has gone up 8 lbs for that success but could still be well handicapped. Frankie then rides Tigers Tale for Ron Teal at 20.25, who has a chance in a very open race, while the debutant Achtung is his mount in the 3yo maiden at 21.30; he is well-bred, but so are some of the others in this field, and trainer Jeremy Noseda probably has a better chance of a win this evening with the very promising Homage (William Buick) in the 3yo handicap at 20.55.

There is flat racing this afternoon at Brighton and Thirsk, mainly low-level handicaps of llttle interest, and N.H. racing at Ffos Las this afternoon - where Royale Knight (Dr. Richard Newland/ Sam Twiston-Davies) can make it 6 wins from his last 8 starts in the handicap chase at 17.35 - and this evening at Worcester, where Ekectric Tiger (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore), from an excellent Wittekindshof family, should be placed at least in the maiden hurdle at 21.05.

In Ireland, there is a mixed meeting at Tipperary, with 4 flat races followed by two over hurdles and a bumper. Aidan O´Brien, who can do no wrong at the moment, saddles Fountain of Youth , with his son Joseph in the saddle, in the 2yo maiden at 18.35, and he should win easily but he will not be at a working man´s price.

Sandown - betting forecast:
1. Race: Inciting Incident - Rising Dawn - Urban Dreamer
2. Race: Rebecca Romero - Asian Trader - Whitecrest
3. Race: Poetic Lord - Tigers Tale - Sir Mike
4. Race: Altharoos - Ashaadd - Homage
5. Race: Lemon Pearl - Thomas Hobson - Dambuster
6. Race: Highland Duke - Cashpoint - Frozen Over

Wednesday, June 05, 2013

6 meetings today

Plenty of racing again today, but mainly at a low level, and if there are any stars to be seen, this is likely to be at the evening Irish meeting at Fairyhouse. Most of the top Irish trainers are here - Oxx, Weld, Wachman and co - but the two most interesting runners are Aidan O´Brien´s Bluebell (Seamus Heffernan) and Wonderfully (Joseph O´Brien) in the opening 2yo fillies maiden at 18.25 CET. Needless to say, both are beautifully bred, especially the latter, an own sister to last week´s Derby runner Mars, and as she is Joseph´s choice, we expect her to win on her debut and quite possibly go on to success in a much higher grade.

Sir Mark Prescott sends two runners North from his Newmarket base to run at Ayr and both of them are likely to start hot favourites - Khotan in the 1 3/4 miles maiden at 15.10 and Mutual Regard, who has top weight in the handicap over the same trip at 16.10. We are slightly sceptical about both: Mutual Regard, who is out of a Big Shuffle mare, won all 4 starts last season, but all on the all-weather, and is now up in grade, in distance and also in the weights. Inm thre maiden we are interested in Camelopardalis (Toby Coles/Robert Winston), a 4yo filly having only her second run, after finishing third in a Catterick seller on her only start last August. That is no recommendation, but she has been well entered - including in German Group races- which suggests that the trainer thinks highly of her. Luke Morris rides the Prescott runners and has more good chances on the card, including the lightly-raced Fort Belvedere (Keith Dalgleish) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 127.40; this however is a very open race and we shall go for Gala Casino Star (Geoff Harker( Jordan Nason) each-way.

There is some quite decent jumping at Newton Abbot, where some useful prospects line up in the novice chase at 16.50; we liked the way Suerte Al Salto (Chris Gordon/ Tom Cannon) won last week at Fontwell and he can possibly follow up with a 6 lbs penalty, while Cannon also rides German-bred Sadlers Star (Michael Blake) in the handicap chase an hour later, our longshot each-way selection in a very open race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bluebell - Wonderfully - Pirita
2. Race: Talitha Kum - Hazy Glow - Yulong Baoju
3. Race: Silver Lightening - Late Rosebud - Waahy
4. Race: Lily Of Kenmare - Enigma Code - Indiana Charmer
5. Race: Paynes Find - Penny Serenade - Silldora
6. Race: Sleeping Beauty - Venus De Milo - Pearl Turn
7. Race: The Black Devil - To Choose - Fellisha
8. Race: House Limit - Armed Guard - Table Forty Six