Ayr, Plumpton and Folkestone

Racing returns to Scotland today after more than a month due to the bad weather. The Ayr card is not particularly high class but the Scottish trainers are out in force, notably Lucinda Russell, who has runners (often several) in every race. Her best chance in our view is with Blenheim Book (Peter Buchanan), who has top weight in the handicap hurdle at 16.00 CET. However the trainer to follow could be Howard Johnson and we expect Rupert Lamb at 13.50, Fortysecond Street at 14.55 and Ascendant half an hour later all to run well and all partnered by Brian Hughes.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lively Baron - Storm Brig - Tanzanite Bay
2. Race: Rupert Lamb - Fortuni - Lady Bluesky
3. Race: Elzahann - The Knoxs - Cool Mission
4. Race: Safari Adventures - Sibenek - Catch Bob
5. Race: Worth A King`S - Grandad Bill - Stopped Out
6. Race: Blenheim Brook - Quacity - Sheriff Hall
7. Race: Border Flora - Too Cool To Fool - Vallani



Main event at Plumpton is the Sussex National over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 15.10. David Pipe is in good form and saddles two runners here - Master Overseer (Tom Scudamore), who won the race last year but has not raced since and is now 6 lbs higher, and Peut etre Sivola (Johnny Farrelly), who won a similar race at Fontwell from Kawagino (Seamus Mullns/ Andrew Thornton), now 6 lbs better off; the former probably needs even heavier ground, but the latter could be placed again, however our main fancy is for Whataboutya (Jonjo O´Neil/ Tony McCoy). He can possibly complete a hat-trick for the champion, as Nicky Henderson´s runners in the first two races Gibb River and Giorgio Quercus have obvious chances.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Gibb River - Extremely So - Mr Muddle
2. Race: Giorgio Quercus - Tullamore Dew - Norman The Great
3. Race: Invictus - Water Garden - Carribs Leap
4. Race: Master Overseer - Whataboutya - Rebel Melody
5. Race: Quetzal - Lepido - Black Phantom
6. Race: Ere Alfie - Sumdancer - Maximix
7. Race: Sir John - Tocatchaprince - Crystal Prince

Excellent New Years Day card at Cheltenham

Although 2 jumps meetings have had to be abandoned, the New Year starts well for N.H. fans with an excellent card at Cheltenham and some good racing at Exeter and Fakenham, while in Ireland they go over the jumps at Fairyhouse and Tramore. Main feature at Cheltenham is the Grade Two Dipper Novices Chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 15.00 CET. This has a very strong field with 13 runners, several of them with Festival ambitions. Reve de Sivola (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob), a recent CD winner, is one of them as are Mr. Thriller (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) - who fell when still going well last time- Master of the Hall (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) and the rather unreliable Medermit (Alan King/ Robert Thornton). However our choice is the lightly-weighted Sway (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy), who is moving up in grade but seems to have plenty of improvement in him.

The valuable handicap chase over the same trip at 15.35 is another very open affair, with question marks hanging over the main contenders, such as Tartak (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), arguably better on a flat course, or Caroles Legacy (Henderson/ Geraghty), arguably better over hurdles. Can´t Buy Time (O´Neill/ McCoy) won this last yar but has run badly ever since, and we therefore choose two outsiders - German-bred Moon over Miami (Charlie Mann/ Paul Moloney), who needs to come with a very late run, and oldtimer Mister McGoldrick (Sue Smith/ Dominic Elsworth), who runs his best races here.

The hurdle race over 2 1/2 miles at 13.55 is virtually a rerun of the Relkeel Hurdle run 3 weeks ago over the same CD, in which Karabak (King/ McCoy) defeated Any Given Day (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) and Celestial Halo (Paul Nicolls/ Harry Skelton); at the revised weights there should be little between the three of them.

The listed bumper for 4yos at 16.45 is probably the best race of its kind so far this season in the U.K. Keys (Roger Charlton/ Brennan) has a good flat pedigree and has won both his starts in promising style. He is the likely favourite here but is meeting much stronger opposition now and may not be suited by this much stiffer track, but if he wins well, he will be an obvious candidate for the Champion Bumper.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Bobs Worth - Astracad - Habbie Simpson
2. Race: Karabak - Any Given Day - Oscar Whisky
3. Race: Buffalo Bob - Qhilimar - Maljimar
4. Race: Reve De Sivola - Medermit - Mr Thriller
5. Race: Carole`S Legacy - Tartak - Taranis
6. Race: Kilcrea Kim - Viking Blond - Chartreux
7. Race: Keys - Trozulon - Cousin Khee

German-breds to score?

German-breds did very well over jumps last week - Iolith and Shot from the Hip were particularly impressive - and we expect more winners today. At Exeter, Fight Club (Bernard Llewellyn/ Isobell Tompsett) runs in the novice hurdle at 14.15 CET. This one time group winner has not troubled the judge in his two N.H. starts so far, but with more routine we think he could be involved in the finish today, as could his stable companion Salontyre in the handicap hurdle over the same trip an hour later. However the one to beat here is clearly top-weight Saldenlicht (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), a classy performer who was listed class on the flat for Baron Ullmann.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mr Hudson - Accordintolawrence - Lord Liath
2. Race: Piroulet - Bermuda Boy - Magic Marmalade
3. Race: Holyrood - Baby Car - Musical Wedge
4. Race: Karasenir - Advisor - Warne`S Way
5. Race: Just The Job - Mic`S Delight - Laustra Bad
6. Race: Cash Back - Spanish Cruise - Immense
7. Race: Glitzy D`Ocala - Morgan`S Bay - Billy Merriott




At Fakenham, Lucy Wadham, who does well wth her German-breds, can take the opening maiden hurdle at 13.00 with Aviador (Leighton Aspell) and the same connections can follow up with Super Directa in the handicap hurdle at 14.10 if he is not too rusty after a long layoff.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sire De Grugy - Aviador - Glorybe
2. Race: Celticello - National Trust - Knight Legend
3. Race: Rumble Of Thunder - Mangham - All For Free
4. Race: Flying Squad - Investment Affair - Muntami
5. Race: Amuse Me - I`Ve Been Framed - Super Directa
6. Race: Best Horse - Lukie Victor - Gavroche Gaugain
7. Race: Prince Massini - Little Carmela - Lastroseofsummer